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Improbable postseason charge would kill draft order status

The Dolphins are on two very interesting and divergent courses and, frankly, I'm torn about which is better.

On the one hand this team that is flawed and has lost more than it has won and doesn't have an offense that scores consistently is still not out of the playoff hunt. That's right, hard as it is to believ (even to them), the Dolphins are still mathematically alive for the postseason.

Now, various things have to happen, not the least of which is Miami has to win out and that includes a victory at New England where very few teams come away with a victory late in the season.

Beyond that, the Dolphins need help in geatting the right combination of losses from Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and others.

[The Bengals must lose their final two games at Pittsburgh and home against Baltimore. The Steelers must win at home against Cincy and lose at home to Cleveland. And the Jets have to lose again.]  

It is so improbable even players are talking about this season as one in which the team didn't accomplish its goal of making the playoffs.

"We didn't do enough," linebacker Karlos Dansby said Tuesday in speaking to the Miami Dolphins Touchdown Club.

And against this possible but improbable circumstance we have the NFL draft order.

You see, with every victory they add in this season that will likely end at New England, the Dolphins sink in the draft order. Last week the FIns were slated for the No. 11 overall pick in the first round. Then they beat the Jaguars and now Miami is slated for the No. 13 overall selection in the first round.

Every bit of success hurts Miami's draft standing.

Do you see the irony?

Win and you might draw closer to a playoff berth that might happen but probably won't. But if the team does win, the cost is a superior draft standing, which obviously hurts the chances of picking an elite player.

Dolphins fans should be particularly sensitive to this situation because many last year advocated a "Suck for Luck" mentality that entailed rooting for the team to lose so that it could get an elite quarterback such as Andrew Luck.

Turns out the Dolphins had too much success late in the season after starting out 0-7 and wound up with the eighth overall selection.

On the other hand, the Dolphins haven't tasted the playoffs since 2008. So perhaps some of you are more than willing to sacrifice the chance to have a Top 10 draft pick in exchange for the possibility -- however slight -- that the team might get into the postseason.

Where do you stand?

 

Comments

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Odick is a 4th rd guy that Irescum took in the 1st.

Didnt we trade down too to pick up Odrick?

Ericatl,
are you talking about the same Pats team that the Fins held to 23 points the entire game?
I realize Gronk wasnt in there but Hernandez was and he is more of a stand up hybrid type TE. This team shows up for tougher opponents. I think the D feeds off of it. Too bad they dont show up that way for all games but it is what it is right now.
-----------------------------------------
Matty, Good point but we did this in Miami!!! Were going to NE... Where it will be at least 50 degrees colder and I believe the Patriots are playing much better than when we played them just a few weeks ago.. Along with our anemic offense that hasent really played in adverse weather conditions this yr as of yet. And Yes I hope we beat NE 40-3. But dont see it happening with our current roster.... If we beat them we have to score over 30 points.We havent seen that since we played that high school team in NY called the jets with a QB that my daughter can outplay

Tannehill is a 5th rd guy that Irescum took in the 1st.

matty is an out of touch out of towner that is clueless

ericatl,
very true, and if we were to beat the Pats I would want it done with their starters playing. A win is a win none the less but then you get pats fans and even fin fans saying; well they didnt have their starters in. The Fins typically play the Pats tough. The D just needs to keep pressure on Brady and cover the underneath. The o-line would need to step up big and get the running game going to create the play action, with Tannehill rolling out, and on occasion picking up a first with his legs to keep their D honest. I can see Hartline getting open a couple of more times on Talib. The fact that Binns got about 16 snaps last week and NE wanted Binns too might be a promising thing for the WR's


Tannehill is a 5th rd guy that Irescum took in the 1st.

Posted by: Ron Son | December 19, 2012 at 01:14 PM

Ron Son,

Sorry, but I have to strongly disagree on this one. Had Ireland come up with a qb as good as Tannehill in the 5th rd. Everyone would be raving what a genius he is.

Basically, with T'hill, Ireland used an 8th overall pick for "a draft day" 2nd rd pick. I say "draft day" because I believe T'hill has great upside. He wasnt really drafted on "what can you do for me now", but, "what can you do for me later".

No one expected T'hill to be a opening day starter until Matt Moore virtually handed him the job with his truly awful preseason performance.

There is too much talent and too many needs on the team to not find talent in the later part of the 1st round.

I'd rather the team go to the playoffs and give RT and the rest of the younger guys the experience

Theres Jay again trying to use a pointless fact that I dont live in Miami to try and discredit me when I guarntee I could school you on football. I again asked you a question that you fail to answer.
Jay equals a discredited and unintelligent local..

Odrick may not be spectacular but he is VERY solid, would start for a majority of teams, and (by the way) is still only 23-years-old and improving.

To call him a bust is ludicrous, but I expect such 'expert ANALysis' from some of the nitwits here.

Posted by: Non-Idiot Brigade | December 19, 2012 at 12:56 PM

I agree Odrick is a good ROLE player. Decent talent, getting better each year. But like Dense said, he's a first-rounder. Yes, low 1st round, but again, that was on Ireland. He felt Odrick and Misi would be better than Jason Pierre-Paul, Maurkice Pouncey, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant... Those are all Pro-Bowlers and more importantly GAME-CHANGING PLAYMAKERS!!!

That's the point here. We've hit on decent talent. But only decent enough to get us just near .500 in 4-of-the-last-5 years. We don't need any more role players. We have those. We need PLAYMAKERS. Elite players. And the only 2 TRUE first-round hits Ireland made were Jake Long and Mike Pouncey (time will tell with Tannehill, though no matter what I think it was the right decision to draft a QB 1st rd in 2012). Great players. We're still mediocre.

Jethater,

The only experience Tannehill and the team would get inthe playoffs. Would be to experience what it feels like to get totally blown out in the first rd of the playoffs.

90% of the time when this happens to a young playoff team they never fully recover from it. Usually its years before they make the playoffs again. Maybe only 10% of the time its a stepping stone to greater things.

Which end of this stat do you think this team would be on? Especially with the IR list increasingly growing with only 2 more games remaining.

I can almost guarantee we won't pick a DT in the first. It's our deepest position. So much so that we have one playing DE.

Offense is the biggest need. If we are drafting abotu 15th, the pick will be Keenan Allen. Unless St. Louis submarines us.

Mark, if a majority of our draft (or FA) ISN'T to improve the offense, then I'll be wearing burgandy and gold next year. #10. Robert Griffin III.

The team won't tank the last two games for a better draft pick so it doesn't matter anyways.

Mark,

WHDP just brought an opionated option if Starks isnt resigned. Anything's "LEGIT" when it comes to gm Ireland. How many times has Ireland made moves any of us ever expected?

Yes we know what our needs are. Sometimes it seems Ireland doesnt know as well as we do. Then there are times Ireland just plain overdrafts a position. We just never know how things wioll turn out when Irelands running the war room on draft day.

YG4E
I really feel that we will see Philbins imprint on this draft. I think we saw it a bit last year and will more so this year. I think Philbin gives Ireland a set path and direction as to what he wants and needs to win.
I think that was missing with Sparano.. they didnt have an identity on the offense or the direction they were going. With the FA's brought in and some of the draft picks they were all over the place.

You could take it one step further and say that making the playoffs and getting hammered by Indianapolis (again) in the wild card game wouldn't be too much fun either.

But if there's one thing I've learned from following the NFL for many years, is that losing is contagious — as is winning.

Great teams that make the playoffs every year still draft, acquire, and develop great players. They don't need the first overall pick to do it. The Patriots, the Giants, the Steelers, and the Packers never talk about tanking to get a better draft position, while the Lions, Jags, Chiefs, and Rams seem to perennially pick in the top 5.

Just win, Baby.

This argument by Armando seems disingenuous.... You see, if Miami loses to Buffalo, we will be force fed "Tannehill isn't the guy", "Our Defense blew it again", "the offense is miserable", Special teams needs a new leader" and finally, the one I see on every internet paper in South Florida lately... "Did Miami really progress or regress this season?".... And I'm sure we are do for a visit any day now from the "Is Joe Philbin any better than Tony [Fist Pump] Sparano?" fairy......
As far as beating New England goes... If you don't like the idea of Miami beating Tom Brady and the Patriots on the road in Foxborough.... Then you're no damned Miami Dolphins fan I wanna know....
It is also a flawed argument. First of all... Miami is not looking for a QB. And the positions they DO need, CB, WR, DE, OLB, are fairly well spread through the draft. Most of the Corners which could be considered high quality are Juniors. We don't even know which or how many will declare (although the CB position is very lucrative and getting to that second contract as fast as possible is the plan for most).... Thing is.... With 5 picks in the first 100... Miami likely can trade as high as the #5 position given the needs of so many teams... They have ammo and players to trade so to do as they please... more or less... Bad argument by Armando. Win your games and fill your seats with some quality picks and a couple good Free Agent acquisitions Miami... Winning gives players a reason to stay and win more.

YG, I guess it COULD happem, but I hope Ireland learned his lesson from his disasterous 2010 draft. You don't trade down when you are a non-playoff team (because you need essential parts) and you don't draft into the strongest part of your team (which he did when he drafted Odrick when we already had Ferguson, Soliai, Starks, Langford, and Merling).

If he drafts DT in the first, he should be allowed to make another draft pick. Instant firing. Because even if he lets Starks walk, you can flip Odrick in there and/or bring back McDaniel on the cheap.

The Dolphins will be home throughout the playoffs again this season, as usual. They will watching the playoffs on TV from home.

mattyb,

Great analogy. "All over the place" drafting about sums it up.

However, the scary part's still, Philbin doesnt have scouts out there evaluating prospective players. Ireland does. Im just not sure Im 100% ready to trust "Ireland's scouts".

The best two picks ever made were safe ones(Long/Pouncey), now it debateble if Long will be resigned because of injuries and declining play.

It seems nothing's a certainty under Ireland and his "scouts".

YG4E
Maybe they have brought in some guys that Philbin feels comfortable with scouting wise. We never hear that side of it..

Mark In Toronto,

Im actually "down" with trading down and picking up an extra 2nd rd pick, if we're drafting a wr inthe 1st rd. I belive the wr position is at least 2 rds deep.

I also believe there great value in drafting a "pass rusher" late in the first rd. I would be down with drafting a pass rusher #1 late in the draft and then we still would have three 2nd rd picks to do whatever.

Wr, corner, etc.. Even 2 wr's and a corner or vice versus. It puts us in the catbird's seat.

Mattyb,

Armando should dig into that and write a blog on it for us. We need to know, after all of the draft day gaffs, has Ireland replaced any of his scouts.

If not, that's a very scary place to be on draft day.

That would definetly be a good report

Mattyb,

During the "Live Blog" I'll try to remember to ask Armando about this and ask him can he dig into it and write a blog as whether Ireland has replaced any of his supposed "super scouts".

Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!

DC, Having Peyton Manning as QB has made Demaryious Thomas into a pro bowler

It would be interesting, I dont know the relationship that Armando has with Ireland but it may be something he would talk about..

..."I'm actually "down" with trading down and picking up an extra 2nd rd pick, if we're drafting a WR in the 1st rd. I believe the WR position is at least 2 rds deep"...

------------------------

Sound thinking....

This is about as weak a WR class as I have seen in 7 or so years... But it doesn't mean there is no talent at the position to be drafted. I just feel with exception to perhaps... Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee (who is actually a 2014 prospect who MAY declare)... and Keenan Allen, WR, California (A Junior) and on the outside looking into the first round Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor (who has only 4.50 speed)... there isn't much worth a first round selection in the WR Hunt. DT is likely the deepest position, with the two guys coming out of LSU both considered elite. I believe if Miami REALLY wants to help they're new QB... They bring in "Either" Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame or Zach Ertz*, TE, Stanford. Both are considered mid 1st to high second round picks (Perhaps higher with Eifert) and both would give TH a BIG target to throw to... That doesn't means they don't take a WR or two later on... It just means you get a guy who can score in the RZ and help your QB from day 1. WR should be filled (for sake of selling seats AT LEAST) in the Free Agency day's... Wallace I feel is Miami's best bet... But Jennings or Bowe (we should not be picky here) would help also...

The Seer has Spoken:

Odrick sux.
Tannehill unlikely to be the Man.

Let it be written.

"We'd rather take the losses this year than go outside what we beleve in", Joe Philbin, this year.

Playoffs always is the priority. As soon as we are eliminated we can play the rooks and inexperienced players.

That said the part of our playoff scenario that concerns me the most is the Browns winning in Pitt if the Steelers need the win to get in.

As long as Jeffey remains as the GM in Miami,none of this conversation matters.He will screw up the draft no matter what may come.Hire Bill Polian before the Yets do the same.

Armando - I like good draft picks, and think it's important for the future of the team. But I also say you have to play with pride, which in my opinion means the Dolphins need to play to win.

Useless story. With Ireland it doesn't matter if the Dolphins have the 1st draft pick or the 32nd. Of course tne Dolphins should try to win the last two games regardless the playoff or the draft pictures. The most important thing right now is that the rookies improve, notably, T-hill.

This is my 41st season of being a Dolphin fan, and even suggesting that losing for the sake of next April's draft position goes against everything I believe in. YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!! If we have any shot, no matter how small it might be, and after all the prognostications of our 0-16, 1-15, 2-14 record this year that was suppose to happen, and quite obviously did not, you control what we can control, and let everything else play itself out. Don't you think a 6th-seed miracle playoff appearance for this team wouldn't make everyone feel awful darn good, not to mention the experience factor for the Dolphins going into next year? If we get a compotent GM in here, next April's draft will go just fine, considering we have five early picks and a lot of salary cap space coming up. It won't matter what position we pick in if the right players are picked for what we need. I will never worry about draft position for the sake of a possible playoff push, no matter how small. Its week 16 people, and guess what? The Dolphins are still alive! Who would have thunk, huh? PHINS UP! GO FINS!!

STOP Armando. #1 - There aren't any sure things after about the top 5-6 guys. #2 - Well run teams (and I am not necessarily including Ireland & friends) find good players late in the first round (See Jones, Chandler, Wilson, Russell Martin, Doug...need I continue?)- all of these guys were drafted in the back half of RD 1. Let's just hope that the team plays well, playoffs or not, and THEN we hav eto pray that Ireland (who appears to be staying) can draft impact players...wherever that may be in the order!

Suck for a top 10 pick?

We're not in need of a 1st pick QB and Tao would be an excellent addition but its not a top need for us. Its our job as fans to trust whomever is is making the draft decisions for our team to be able to find play makers no matter where we draft.
Winners never play to lose. Coach Philbin has a responsibility to do whatever he can to win every game he coachs. Loss of this teams self respect from losing on purpose would damage team and player reputations in the eyes of their peers and only add to the losing atmosphere that comes with a bad season.
One last point. Losing on purpose is 2nd rate busch league that has no place among professionals.
Andrew Luck was prepared to stay in college if the Fins had the #1 over all because of the popularity of the suck for luck campaign.

win

You play to win the game!!!

Win them all and see what happens.

I have been fairly impressed with Armando's resent blogs but wtf is this? ARMANDO, you've been rubbing elbows with actual players for how many years now? How many of these players you've met would purposely lose in your opinion? I'd like to know the cowards names and if any are on our current roster. For you to think this is a conundrum makes you a moral or ethical risk in every phase of your life.

Just bustin ya balls Mando. Merry X-mas sir

whats the difference when tyler eifert will be our draft pick anyways?

The way things shape up from afar, I would have them win as many as they can.

1.) You can never underestimate the power of confidence. Winning ends the team on an up tick regardless of if the other 4 things don't go right to get into the playoffs.

2.) You have to develop a mentality of win or die trying...PERIOD! 'Nuff said on that.

3.) I am convinced that the Offense is far enough behind the Defense that drafting a Defender won't propel the team forward to the same degree that getting Offensive help would. BUT, there is an asterisk*. That asterisk is that I believe in the power of drafting BPA. If the Offensive guys the Fins want are not there when they pick then they have to switch gears and go best player available in the 2013 draft. If they ended up with a stud like ILB T'eo Manti or a top CB like Milliner then I would not mind a bit.

4.) Winning should further steer Ireland/Philbin to the area they can land as good of a WR weapon for Tannhill as possible. My top choice would be Jr. WR Keenan Allen. I believe with his hands, catching radius, leaping ability and desire to compete he would improve Tannehill's completion percentage. This would bring more confidence as well as first downs to move the chains and subsequent redzone opportunities.

The TE from ND is a large 6'6" target that would make a poor mans Gronk. He would also help the Offense with his blocking.

That would be a killer 1-2 draft day punch that would help move the Offense light years forward if coupled with FA WR Mike Wallace from Pitt. Then Tannehill can launch some crazy bombs and actually have a guy there to catch them.

Cheers,

I was one of those who wanted us to go into the tank after it was obvious we werent going into the post season anyway last year but the situation was completely different.A prospect like Andrew Luck only comes along every twenty or thirty years and we were in desperate need at QB.We still have a shot albeit a very slim one this year so I say win and hope for some help.

No brainer for me.....as long as you have a "lifeline" for the playoffs, you go for it. There are going to be some crazy story lines over the next two weeks, and the Dolphins making the post season could be one of them. Worry about the draft after the season is OFFICIALLY over, not now.

a better draft position is ALWAYS better, better, better, and mo-better........

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