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Dolphins win Sunday or something is really wrong

I'm picking the Dolphins to win Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars have significant injuries throughout the roster -- including at running back where starter Maurice Jones-Drew is out and backup Rashad Jennings is out. They have the worst record in the league, along with the Kansas City Chiefs, at 2-11.

Honestly, if the Dolphins do not win today then something is seriously wrong and we might need to re-think everything.

But if you look at the breakdown below, you should come to understand that the Dolphins have advantages in practically every phase of the game as it stacks up.

When the Dolphins run the ball: The Dolphins go from playing one of the NFL’s best defenses one week to one of the worst this week and a reason for that is Jacksonville has been terrible stopping the run. The Jaguars are 31st out of 32 teams against the run. That bodes well for the Dolphins because Reggie Bush is making his push for his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Miami is in transition, however, as last week Lamar Miller got more carries than Daniel Thomas, who was relegated to third down duty. One assumes that will continue this week otherwise the Dolphins will look like they are merely grasping wildly for answers instead of employing lineup changes for logical reasons. The offensive line remains the same. Look for more of that successful center sweep in which Mike Pouncey leads Bush around the corner. ADVANTAGE: Miami.

When the Dolphins pass the ball: Ryan Tannehill finished poorly last week when he threw four consecutive incompletions on a possession where Miami had a chance to tie the game. He needs to wipe that bitter taste from his mouth and the Jaguars offer the perfect defense to cleanse the palate. Jacksonville is not as terrible against the pass as the run, but bad nonetheless. The Jags are 24th in the NFL against the pass. Brian Hartline may have to carry the workload on the outside because Davone Bess is slowed by injury and will notplay. The Jaguars are dead last in the NFL in sacks so Tannehill should mostly have time to throw but the addition of sack specialist Jason Babin makes for a tough match up against Miami’s tackles. ADVANTAGE: Miami.

When the Jaguars run the ball: Maurice Jones-Drew has been a premier running back in the NFL for several years. But don’t worry because the Dolphins aren’t going to face him because he’s been out for weeks with a foot injury. And they’re probably not going to see his backup Rashad Jennings because he’s trying to overcome a concussion. So the Dolphins get the third man up that is, well, who knows? The team has been using backup fullback Montell Owens as its primary ball carrier while Keith Toston is listed as the No. 3 running back on the depth chart. Statistically, the Dolphins had a terrible day defending the run last week because they yielded 155 yards and a 5.5-yard per carry average to the 49ers. But 50 of those yards came on a TD by quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who is a great running threat, out of the spread option. The Jaguars are not likely to employ that look. ADVANTAGE: Miami.

When the Jaguars pass the ball: Cameron Bradfield, a second-year player, will be matched against Dolphins sack leader Cameron Wake. It seems like a mismatch and it is. But the Jaguars, believe it or not, have bigger problems. They spent much of last week figuring out who would start at left guard because Mike Brewster is on injured reserve and Eben Britton was bad in replacement duty against the Jets. So the Jaguars plugged in recently acquired Steve Vallos as a possible option. The Jaguars also lost wide receiver Laurent Robinson to injured reserve because of several concussions he suffered and leading receiver Cecil Shorts is also trying come back from a concussion. Oh, and did I mention Chad Henne is Jacksonville’s quarterback? The Dolphins castoff is a good guy and a hard worker. Problem is he has yet to prove he’s a good NFL quarterback. ADVANTAGE: Miami.

Special teams: The Dolphins need to stop the bleeding with this unit because it has allowed or led to opposing touchdown in four consecutive games. Last week, it was a fumbled punt inside the 10-yard line. This unit is hurting the team’s chances of winning the past few weeks. This unit can’t blow it on a big play a fifth week in a row, can it? It seems about as likely as a punter pushing around a linebacker. Oh, wait Brandon Fields did that last week. ADVANTAGE: Even. 

Coaching: Two rookie coaches. Two losing teams. Both out of the playoffs. Both looking for answers and not finding many. ADVANTAGE: Even.

Comments

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"Extreme Individualism, lack of opportunities and the fasacination with Weapons makes an excellent growing medium for protagonists like the Sandy Hook killer". today in BBC Mundo.

One of these Days, this Team is going to put all its Pieces together and beat the Crap out of most other Teams, including NE. Remember it.

We will find a way to lose. Jax wins a close (and thrilling one) 17-13

Bet on that result, Rob M, bet on that result.

You forgot the Henne factor and the really bad factor for us. Sean Smith. If he rested last night and took his vitamins he might show up to play.
Look for lots of dinks, dunks, Play actions and then they will run the ball.
As far a 4 incompletes last week... who was he going to throw the ball to. Nobody was open. And the line was breaking apart like soggy kleenex and he is a rookie. I thought Tanne had a nice game last week.
Fault lies with the inability for the team to get big fast receivers that can catch and that fault lies in the front office or coaching or both.
I think the Fins win but it won't be a blowout. As Oscar says, it is all going to come together by 2014 where the salary cap, the experience of the team and the draft will all come together in a harmonious balance of superb Dolphin football players. We are close, stay the course.

Way to go out on a limb and pick us to win this week Mando. But I agree, if we DON'T win, then it's time to re-think Joe Philbin. You have to beat bad teams consistently before you can even think of beating a good team.

When we loose to chad hennne and his new team i hope Mr Ross has the brains to finally let Ireland go on his way chad is better than tannel and today he will show us all the front office never had the right talent around henne jax 21 mia 13 we just can't move the ball with tannel at qb mark my words

won't the Jags being sayig the same????

You're losers, scared of not-Winning(the pain, the pain!).

*saying

bj, ur a moron.

DC....WHY YOU CALL BI A (( MORON ))...............

ISN'T HE FREE TO POST WHAT HE THINKS,NOT WHAT YOU AGREE WITH ?

Win or lose there is still something very wrong. I think I will start each of my future posts with Ireland must be fired.

ALoco, because the people who continue to believe Henne is a good NFL QB don't know ANYTHING about football and probably don't deserve to HAVE an opinion anyone should take seriously.

The guy is on the worst team in the league, and STILL was a backup. Then, as always, when he gets in, he's inconsistent. That's the problem with the guy. I don't care if people say he's better than Tannehill (that's still to be decided). But only an IDIOT would want Henne here. He'll NEVER lead a team to elite status. He's not that guy. So the team was right to move on. And that's not an opinion, it's a FACT!

Sure, sure... Dolphins SHOULD win. In fact, several other times this year, this team SHOULD have won. But it didn't. The other team didn't win those games, as much as the Dolphins lost them.

In football, mistakes cost you plenty. And while stronger teams may triumph, a middling NFL football team can't afford many gaffs and be expected to overcome even against more disadvantaged teams playing better football. Just ask the Rams and Bengals about their outings against the Dolphins this year.

The challenge today will be for the Dolphins to NOT BEAT THEMSELVES. The challenge today is for the Dolphins to take advantage of Jax mistakes, which we know will happen. The challenge today is for the Dolphins to minimize their own mistakes, which we know will happen. Missing on the formula spells doom for the Dolphins.

Let's hope the coaches have the team well prepared.

I disagree...who cares if there are injuries to their RB position. They weren't going to beat us with their Running game in any case. Also, There's no overwhelming need to have to win this game to prove anything. They need to be playing for the future which means giving the rookies and young players time on the field. The team is simply not very good in key aspects of the game. Of course something is really wrong when the team is 5-8...with few playmakers on offense and a seriously flawed pass defense. There will be a huge roster turnover in the off season and that must happen.

Ireland must be fired!

Why would anyone even want to win this game or the 2 after. It just doesn't make any sense, follow the colts from last year and get the draft picks, other words just blow the game.

So sources say that Greenbay will release Jermichael Finley.. Do they Fins persue him and have an advantage bc of the Philbin connection? That def helps the tightend situation..

Packers, to cut J.Finley. Just sayin!

matty, I was also looking at that, but some reports are saying Finley doens't run good routes, isn't great on preparation, not good qualities (if true). But Philbin will know if the guy is worth it or not, so he should make the decision.

The Dolphins are hardly competitive. The record indicates that. Another season with a bust QB and minimal scoring. Six offensive td's in the last five games. This team is the New Orleans Aints of the decade. Don't sell me "competitive" when this team couldn't score at a Heidi Fleiss pool party. No points, no QB, no wins = no fans. Pretty simple.

Bill ale is quickly becoming one of the best posters on this blog....IMO,....

I agree with EVERYTHING in you're post....I even agree with hoping the COACHES have the team well prepared....

In the end tho...I think we HAVE to lose this game....

THE FINS need to show mr. Ross tha 5 years later....this organization is in no better shape than BOTTOM OF THE BARREL Jacksonville.....show mr. Ross that our talent on this team isn't even equivelent to his competition in the north....

And finally.....let Henne drive the final stake into the career of Jeff Ireland's tenure as the FINS GM.....

Billcale...

Sorry...iPad auto correction....

Dashi is hearing that Ireland will be fired as soon as

the seasons over!!

they better win today and next week

DC....

Why do we need to re-think Philbin.....but give Ireland a pass....

I know you didn't say that....but you're omission of his culpability....certainly implies it....IMO.....

If they want to improve they have to stop picking up other teams castoffs. It just makes a team full of garbage like they are now.

Who cares if they win or not? It makes no difference at this stage.

Remember when we ALL had this circled as a WIN back in September.....

My how times have changed.....

Not a rookie coach on other side......Mularkey was the head coach at Buffalo before coming to Miami. This is his first year with Jax though.

Hi Kris; thanks... you sound just as torn about today's game as I do. I want to see something -SOMETHING -out of the Dolphins today. I WANT some HOPE. Please, PLEASE... so we don't have to blow up this team again.

Kris, no, I believe if Philbin goes, Ireland DEFINITELY should go as well. You're right, much of our issues remain from 2008, when Ireland took over. He's improved some positions around the edges, but the meaningful, historically-deficient positions on this team (QB, WR, TE, S, CB) haven't been improved much.

I don't think either will go, but my point is if we can't beat a team like Jax, then we've regressed (and tht was my goal this Season, progress from last year, or at least from Week 1).

Dolphins vs Jaquars = BIG YAWN, makes me sleepy

When the game goes on I'll take my nap.

And dont expect things to get more exciting. Next week they play the Bills. LOL

THE NEW TIGHLY KNIT GROUP OF EIGHT ARE..

ODINSEYE
DASHI
KRIS
PHIN78
YG
BILLCALE
DCDOLFAN
DARRYLE DUBPHREY
DISSAGREE WITH ONE AND YOUR BRANED A TROLL.

When it comes to the Dullfins, its much more complimentary and realistic to be a troll then a homer.

I bet we lose, we always play down to the competition. Jax wins 16-13.

I bet we lose also henne will have a great game becuase we traded our best dB and it has hurt us all year. A good coaching staff can work with different types of personalities. Davis was arguably our best db on game day. With him we had one of the best backfields without him we are below average. No surprise teams target smith too slow out of the break.

The Jags are a very very bad team that also has a TON of injuries. The Dolphins stink but still should win this by 14 pts or more.

LAST TIME MIAMI PLAYED A BAD TEAM (TENNESEE) THEY LOST 44 TO 3 TO KEEP THEM IN CELLAR.

Hey, the Jags are so bad and so banged up that D Thomas could break a tackle today!!

Mularkey is the Jags HC? Now I know why they suck so badly.

Well hopefully we can get a win today go fins. Cam wake 4.5 sacks lock it up

OSCAR,WHAT SAY YOU ABOUT THE "TK8"?

The line has come down to 7.5 for us, probably because of Misi's and Bess' absence. Also, by design, some starters might be limited in their playing Time.

Jeff Fuller is a big receiver that can separate quickly. Hands are the problem.

Mularkey isn't a rookie HC, is he? Wasn't he the Bills HC not too long ago? Google solves this but outside sources aren't my thing. He's Jags rookie HC technically but he's been around the block a few times and has been horrible each time; advantage: Miami (can be advantage Jaguars if Sherman whips out some questionable play calling and Philbin goes along with it)

That wasn't a TKO, ALoco, Paquiao was knocked out cold.

Dashi - desperately needs attention
Kris - always bitter
Phins78 (plus aliases) - not a bad guy, just plain dumb
odin - putrid blog pollution highly supported by his bedfellows above

THE NEW TIGHLY KNIT GROUP OF EIGHT ARE..
ODINSEYE
DASHI
KRIS
PHIN78
YG
BILLCALE
DCDOLFAN
DARRYLE DUBPHREY
DISSAGREE WITH ONE AND YOUR BRANED A TROLL.

Kris,

I still don't get your thinking. As a Philbin fan you shoould be careful what you wish for. If Ireland goes, Philbin is likely to be shortly behind him and that's a shame.

So again, be careful what you wish for.

This blog has so few worthwhile posters..IMHO. Most of you are TROLLS...with NOTHING to offer. I will be after ALL of you....until you are BANNED..for good!

KRIS, HOWS THAT 11 AND 5 WORKING FOR YOU?
HAVE YOU NO SHAME?

KRIS, WHO ARE THE WORTHWHILE POSTERS?
LET ME GUESS.


ODINSEYE
DASHI
KRIS
PHIN78
YG
BILLCALE
DCDOLFAN
DARRYLE DUBPHREY

THE NEWLY FORMED "TK8"

The next 2 games matter a lot IMO. Finishing 7-9 is huge because it'll show us that we're 2 carpenter FGs away from the playoffs. 7-9 gives us hope about next year that a couple of pieces and we could be contending.

Philbin is not a bad coach. He has made a few rookie mistakes but overall is doing fair with the level of talent he has.
I think Coyle is pretty good. Sherman I'm not too sure about.
Ireland will be up against it in 2013. If Ross keeps him as he seems to be indicating, then this FA period and draft will be do or die.
However, if Ireland goes, I'm afraid Philbin would too. Whereas, I'm not a huge Ireland fan, I do think Philbin is the real deal.

TN, I agree with you about Philbin doing a fair job this year. But let's wait and see before make a statement like, "Philbin is not a bad Coach." 5-11, 6-10, 7-9 should NOT be acceptable in Miami. If so, you're too poisoned as a fan with the failure here last decade plus. We need HC's that have winning records CONSISTENTLY, and nothing less should be acceptable.

Maybe Philbin ultimately gets there. But Sparano, who started out 11-5, never could. Neither could Saban or Cameron. I'm on a wait-and-see approach with Philbin. I think he MIGHT be the right guy for the job, but only success will give us the information we need to conclude so.

DC I agree. Philbin's success for this season is still dependent on the next few games. If we lose Jax at home today we're in a lot more trouble than we think. IMO we have to win the next 2 games.

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