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An honest look at Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley

If you've spent any time on this blog since the season ended you know that when the discussion has turned to free agency two names have dominated the conversation.

Mike Wallace.

Greg Jennings.

I shared with you some pertinent truths and myths about Mike Wallace earlier in the week. (As the post was at the top of the blog only a couple of hours you might want to check it out).

Now I'd like to share some Jennings knowledge from folks who know him more than me. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently graded every Packers offensive and defensive player. It is a major undertaking and, no, I'm not going to do it here because I don't think I could be fair to everyone. I have not studied enough tape to tell you exactly how Randy Starks compared to Paul Soliai.

Fair or not, right or wrong, the Journal-Sentinel did it with the Packers.

And what did the paper say about Greg Jennings and the season he had in 2012? Read:

"Will be 30 early next season, has missed 11 of the last 22 games due to injury and in all probability will be allowed to walk in March as an unrestricted free agent. Averaged merely 10.5 yards per catch, including 4.3 after the catch. Early in season as a slot, there were times it seemed he was just looking for a place to fall down. Just how strong his market value will be could hinge on how much stock scouts put on his superb performance at Minnesota in the regular-season finale. Gifted, precise runner still offers vertical stretch. There are just too many other capable players at his position and too many players at other positions that must be paid. Grade: C-plus."

And now we have a problem. I'm not ready to proclaim the paragraph above as the gospel on Jennings. But it says a lot when you consider his age, recent injury history, recent production and compare it to earlier in his career while using two critical factors:

Critical factor No. 1: The man has perhaps the best QB in the business throwing to him and he had a C-plus season and the team is ready to dump him.

Critical factor No. 2: He wants to get paid! A lot. We're talking no less than $7 million per year and likley way north of that.

That, of course, does not change the truth that Jennings is familiar with Dolphins coach Joe Philbin and vice versa. That doesn't change the fact Jennings has family members that want him to play in Miami.

But is he the right investment? Is he the best value for the buck?

Free agency is a crapshoot. We all know that. It misses more often than it hits. And it misses mostly when excellent personnel departments determine that a player isn't worth the money he's asking and let him go to another personnel department that doesn't know the player nearly as well but values him more.

The Packers have an excellent personnel department. They don't make a ton of mistakes. They let Matt Flynn walk as a free agent QB last offseason and while he got a big payday from Seattle, he couldn't beat out a rookie third-round pick name Russell Wilson. Now he's sort of a problem for the Seahawks because backup QBs should not be making $6.5 million per season.

The Dolphins wisely kicked the tires on Flynn and passed. They didn't want to pay that price. Jeff Ireland, who takes a ton of heat here, got that one absolutely right.

It didn't matter that Flynn and Philbin were boys. The Dolphins passed.

That is encouraging to me because it suggests familiarity will not blind the Dolphins with Jennings either. Let's face it, he's a good player. He would upgrade Miami. He's a great citizen.

But the price is the thing, folks. He's probably not worth what he'll be asking, particularly if there is another faster, younger, admittedly more expensive, but better fit on the market. Mike Wallace. 

And if the Dolphins are budgetting only one major expensive unrestricted free agent wide receiver signing, it should not be a player who had a C-plus contract season.

While I have you, let me also draw your attention to the tight end topic. The same Journal-Sentinel reported during the season that the Packers were going to part ways with tight end Jermichael Finley. The paper reported he'd be either traded or cut before a $3 million roster bonus hits this offseason.

Trading for him, something I initially advocated, would be a terrible approach. I was wrong in suggesting that before doing my homework.

My homework tells me getting Finley in trade would cost something like $10 million against the salary cap. No thanks.

If he's available after being cut, that is another story because then the team can work a new deal with him. But trading for that contract should be out.

Anyway, this is what the newspaper said about Finley's 2012 season:

"Dropped five passes and lost one fumble in the first five games, just one drop and no fumbles after that. Preparation for games appeared far more professional down the stretch, wasn't fixated on his numbers and let game come to him. Caught an occasional seam pass but did best work in the flats. Possesses good, not great, speed and fine athleticism. Degree of stiffness hurts him after the catch and on some routes as a split receiver. Played 47.5% of his 769 snaps from a conventional TE position and 5.7% as extra blocker in the backfield. Regressed as a run blocker, allowing 9½ "bad" runs after having just six in first four seasons. Owed a $3 million roster bonus if on roster in March. Grade: C-plus."

Oh goodie, another player who had an average season! Doesn't sound great does it?

Look, I'm not kicking Finley to the curb. He's a good player. He's better than what Miami has. But he's not the best in the business. He's not elite. He's good.

So the operative term needs to be value. We've already established trading for Finley does not offer value given that he'll bring a big cap hit with him. The question is if he's on the market as a free agent after getting cut (assuming the newspaper was correct, you never know) is can he be landed at a value cap amount?

Interesting, isn't it?

Comments

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Dwayne Bowe seems like the guy we should go after. We need someone who can absorb lots of catches and score TD's in the red zone.

You overrate how good Mike Wallace is.

I do not think Wallace fits with RT's skill set. Jennings fits better.

If RT's "skill set" does not include throwing deep passes for TDs, then he's the problem not the WR we sign.

Wallace is the best deep threat that is going to hit the market. Period.

of course packer free agents will get bad score from their papers. I don't think we can make decision about a player based on some article in a paper. No one knows these guys better than philbin. If he thinks they are worth the money then we should do it. I'm sure Philbin wasn't interested in flynn or Ireland would have signed him last year. I mean if philbin really like flynn then Ross would have made Ireland get flynn. Philbin has a lot of say in who we sign as FA.

Another home run Salguero.

Why would Packer free agents get bad score from their papers if they had good seasons? I'm sure Aaron Rodgers got a good grade. That statement is written as fact and it is utterly wrong.

And thanks for the enlightening stuff lately Mando

last thoughts on the pats how many superbowls have they won after spygate and how many big games have they lost thats all im sayin MIKE DA PATS FAN ON A DOLPHIN BLOG

The key point to take away from this article, Jennings was average playing with one of the best QB's in the game. Add to that he is likely past his prime and injury prone to boot.

Why any of you think that he would be the WR we have been starved for is beyond me.

I'am sur Jeff Ireland will find a acorn somewhere.., He always does....
LMAOJTUOMLT..

People who write LMFAO are trying to convince themselves they said something remotely funny, when it is only predicatbly stale and boring.

10 years from now half of you nimwits will still be making 3rd grade level jokes about acorns and yo mama's a ho.

Ireland meanwhile will still be working in the NFL for a salaray 10 times more than you make. Tell me who is smarter?

jennings im not big on, but would love finley

The article makes for good conversation, but we have the guy that coached both these guys for the pasts 4 years.

Philbin knows the deal!

I'll trust him and Jeff to do the right thing here.

This is a young team and has to be built mostly through the draft.

For me it is Mike Wallace or bust.

Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!

CHIEFS WR #82 D. BOWE? MAYBE.
BOWE, HARTLINE, BESS, MATTHEWS, TEXAS A&M WR #25
RYAN SWOPES. DRAFT
NOTRE DAME TE EIFERT(1)
AND FLORIDA TE REED(4).

Dwayne Bowe just isn't worth it. I don't see it.

bowe is decent but drops a ton of balls and isnt a depp threat. wallace is the man to get

Dusty Your right, We had the same thing 3 years ago drafted at #9 in the 07 season.., just say no to Bowe.

Mike Wallace is the man we need in Miami! Not an injury prone, WR that is clearly on the decline. Wallace has the ability to take the top off the defense, and teams will be less likely to keep put 8 or 9 defenders in the box once Tannehill hits Wallace for a 40 yard bomb. He has great hands, and is great after the catch. His speed, will open up the middle of the field for Bess, Hartline, and whatever TE we draft or sign in FA. Plus his speed will open up the run game, because teams will not be able to put 8 and 9 in the box. Plus he gives us some quick strike potential. We will no longer have to sustain 10-15 play drives to get into the endzone.

finley is an upgrade over Fasano.


agree about Jennings...


Wallace or Bowe

Talk Wallace all you want. He isn't going to a crap team. He'll stick with Pitt if he doesn't get a better option.

Give me anyone of those WR free agents and I'll be happy.It would be a huge Upgrade

Exactly why I say the primary fa targets should be Brendan Albert(OT) and Andy Levitre(OG). No Jennings/Wallace/Bowe.

I already stated age alone is enough to pass on Jennings. Wallace is more Duper than Clayton. Remember what happened to Duper when the speed left? Say hello to Duper(Wallace) again when the same will happen.

IMO, this year's wr crop is a bumper crop. Hell, even Cordelle Patterson is a much younger Bowe. Maybe just a little faster with far more upside. None of these fa wr's are really worth breaking the bank on.

Just pass!

I would like us to sign Wallace in FA, and use our first rounder on the TE from Stanford, or Notre Dame. See if we can re-sign Hartline for a reasonable price, if not I have confidence in Matthews taking over the #2 WR position, and putting Bess back in the slot.

Be it Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Finley, Tarzan for all I care. We need a great O player here. HOFer like.

Retardo-mongul In Toronto,

Where are you...... come on out to play............. LOL...

Is this corny here or what? Stick to Football, Man!

Dear Mr. Ireland. Let Starks walk, move Odrick inside. Sign Use the 7-8 million that you would have paid Starks to sign one of the primary pass rushers in free agency( Odricks old spot) let Vernon grow behind him or Wake. Maintain the solid lb core with Dansby, Burnett, Misi. Let smith walk, I heard revis wants out of ny. Id pay him his 12-13 mil to shut down one side of the field.keep Marshall as our slot master. Sign Hartline(5-7 mil). Sign M. Wallace to a 8-9 mil deal. So my only free agent moves are Revis, Wallace, Hartline and a premier pass rusher for Starks salary. Now the draft. Draft cb 1st round. Preferably milliner but it doesn't matter the first 3 corners are talented. Go TE with first second rounder and safety with the other second( so far the two best safetys are rated second round, end of first at best for one). Go Wr third round, and another CB with the other. Best player available from there. So that's wake, Odrick, solia, and a premier pass rusher opposite of wake on the D line. Don't forget about Vernon. But the best part is Revis, Milliner(or Banks), Richard Marshall, R. Jones, 2nd rnd safety, and the 3 rnd corner will be in our defens. ive back field with a sturdy lb support of Dansby, burnett, Misi. One offense tannehil now has Wallace, a second end TE, and a third round Wr added to Bess and Hartline. Clay impressed me at the end to keep. Fasano will return cheap as a TD threat. And we still have rounds 4-7 to use and cap money left to pick up maybe bush or even make a splash like Jones drew

All 4 of the major WR or TE guy's spoken about (well Bowe was not mentioned)have warts... ALL PLAYERS who are allowed to walk by they're teams, be they once great or once good, have warts.
The job of the scouts, Philbin and Ireland is to determine if the free agent player would be an upgrade to whatever player in whatever position we are looking to get better in.
The idea of getter a "Perfect Player" in free agency is an oxymoron. If they were "perfect"... teams would do what Armando said Miami would do in negotiating Long's contract if he were still elite... Shrug their shoulders and pay the man...
Miami can only look towards Free Agency to "Get Better" at specific positions. No more, No less. There is only one "Shopping Center" where a "Perfect Player" can be found. That is the draft. And the player Miami may draft will only be "Perfect" if Miami chooses a player they can rely on to develop and become "The guy"... They are looking for.
If you are looking to Free Agency to build your team... you are already heading the wrong way... You can only "Upgrade a player" in free agency. A player drafted by a team can be developed and molded into exactly what the team wants if chosen well.

John "The Dolfan",

Honorable sir. If we sign Wallace, Hartline will still be the #1 wr. hHe is by far the better route runner.

In 2013, defenses will double Wallace to force Hartline to try and beat them. Hartline will have 90 rec 1,300 yds 2 tds.

Wallace will have 4 tds because he is always double teamed sir. I pray that you can see "the vision" sir.

Thank you sir. Its been a pleasure to share our "Fin-Vision" with you. Please do come again.

This is not corny. People think that illegal drug trafficking is the most profitable enterprise of all. hehehe. Arms trafficking has always had the top spot being overtaken in Modern Times by prescription drugs trafficking.

Good article Armando. We can speculate all we want though, ultimately its Ireland's decision.

He is the one thats charged with adding some playmakers while briging back some of our own free agents that can play.

If I were in his position and truthfully had to make a showing or be gone, I would have hoped for a bigger free agent market.

There isn't a whole lot out there that really sets the world on the fire. While theres always going to be risk, i remember seasons where there were some pretty sure fire candidates out there. Charles Haley, Reggie White, and Drew Brees come to mind.

Lets be honest though, Jennings, Wallace and Bowe are better than any reciever in the line-up right now.

I'm pulling for Jeffy though. I sure don't want to be sitting here next year wondering who our new GM is gonna be cause we sucked again.

Wallace would be fine but dont see much mentioned here about the Fins likely facing significant competition to get him.....several teams quickly come to mind and I'm sure there are a few others that will be interested-yeah, we can load the $ boat but to what extent?--not a popular thought but trading for a good WR is an option too.....I know the B Marsh experience wasnt the best and hate trading picks/assets, but its a possibility....

You make love to the azzzz, pal, not to the Woman.

Are most of Us any different, ALoco?

It's all about the U!! Duke getting embarassed at the moment.

From Last Blog,

Good Points Mando!

But Long Is Not Boselli!

JAKE Will Get Paid $10-12Mil! A Year!

Let's Just Hope It is From Miami!!

My problem Mando! Is Yes!! You Don't Like The Guy!! But Who Is Better Than Him!! Or Who Will Replace Him?

Same Thing With The Wr's!

1 Free Agent Wr!! Who Will You Spend!! $6-8 Mil On?

Wallace
Bowe
Hartline
Jennings

Bowe Honestly Makes The Most Sense!!

Bowe and 2 Rookie Picks!!

Maybe, 1st Rounders!

Back to Football. Not as many as last year's but there are 2 possible future HOFers in this Draft. But I'm not going to tell you who they are. Ask Ireland.

try to sign a top tier WR and CB or DE, instead of trying to sign 2 WRs from a seemingly light FA group.....Jennings would be an upgrade for Miami but probably not a difference maker, or at least not for long--so get what you can.....offer Wallace (or Bowe, but not a speedster) a good contract and then focus on CB/DE for a second major signing--reduces that need in the draft, so maybe we can then grab a good WR prospect with one of our Rd 2 picks--Wallace, Hartline, Bess and maybe D Hopkins, or whoever.....definite upgrade.

That's what Fidel Castro has been feeding the Cuban People for decades, YG, soy beef. Now he's preaching about some miraculous Plant name Morringa,"an eternal source of meat, milk and eggs".

I think someones having a Meltdown.
YG4E, How much have you drank today?

Good investment in Morringa, YG. It might reach here.

I was reading the word on Finley and thought it was a write up on Fasano. Seems like many of the same things are said about him.
Also,
Like the Packers, the Steelers have an excellent personnel department and are most likely letting Wallace walk. Should we stay away from him like Mando suggests we might want to stay away from Jennings? You know, because the Steelers must know something we don't? Doesn't make much sense.

I figure that if they let Santonio Holmes go, Pitt might be one of these organizations that easily replaces Players with other = or greater talented ones, like NE does. If so, grab Mike Wallace.

Yeah, I remember in Armando and the Amigos show there was a little Cuban guy and a Black guy as the Amigos. I wonder what happened to them?

WOW, YG, Get a grip big guy, Like Passing by said, How have you drank today?

give me a break you must always double down drat one and sign one.

This Time, he has really flipped.

every time i read a post from yesterdays gone i want to punch him in the face does anyone else feel this way to?

I doubt Miami is going to draft a wr in the first round.. so i really is going to happen .. miami will get one of the free agent wr's ... more than likely Jennings or Bowie

Armando,

We already know & have tossed around this blog alot, Jennings isn't a good fit for the reasons you state.

Age
Health
Ridiculous Salry he'll ask for

Realistically, it's his last pay day so he won't come cheap. With his age & injury history, he's not an option. Wallace is the target if Pitt lets him hit the FA market.

Pass on Bowe. Even though he's better than all our WR's, that doesn't mean he's worth the investment. He isn't the explosive fast WR this offense needs.He is the last option if you ask me!

Go after Wallace & Finley HARD. Team them with Bess & Hartline & you have a nice 4 WR/TE set.

Dashi, if you think Ireland is going to pay Long 10-12 million, you're not living on Planet earth. If it were for that much money, the deal would e done by now. Long would be an absolute DOPE to turn it dow after 2 str8 years on IR.

Put your Long Jersey on ebay & stop the wet dreams!

we must have playmakers thats all

YG, see my name. You've become more annoying than odinsbrowneye

Well because of Jenning's age, health, and low productivity, no smart team is going to pay him the high price he's asking. But then again, some dumb, desperate team like the Jets might take the bait.

So with one bad season due to injury, the question is: can he rebound like Adrian Peterson, or is he wilting like Jake Long? If Philbin thinks he's worth it, then perhaps they can get him less than what he's asking for.

I expect at least a deep-threat WR (I like Wallace too!) and a CB from FA this preseason. That would be aside from an OT, be it Jake Long or a worthy newcomer. We are not here to create new weak spots but to fix the ones we already have, right?

But if we can also get a decent TE that would make tough draft decisions much easier for Ireland.

Patsies are not invincible and Tommy Brady is too far away from being a football demigod! Go Dolphins!!!

Im pretty much done playing the "Ireland Off-Season" guessing game. Past history has taught me I should no better. Doesnt matter what I would like to see happen. Ireland hardly ever does anything close. No one can argue this.

In the end the the Miami Dolphins will wear the face of Jeff Ireland. Thats whatever "Jeff Ireland" wants it to be. In the end, we wnat be rooting for the Miami Dolphins. In the end we'll be rooting for:

"THE FACE OF JEFF IRELAND"

WHETHER ANOTHER YEAR OF "UGLY DUCKLING, OR FINALLY CHANGING TO "BEAUTIFUL SWAN".

BY 2013'S END, LET YOURSELVES BE THE JUDGE. LOL....

Does anyone post anything that is not a personal attack or complete nonsense on here? My goodness it's a challenge to sift thru all the B.S. to find a Dolphins fan who wants to talk about the team on this blog. What is the deal? Is it youngsters or what??? And this Dashi guy....what is the exclamation point usage about? Is it a joke or is this person just that exited, lol?

Is Tannehill going to be the starting QB again next year or do we look to FA for a QB?

What would the franchise tag for wallace be 10 mil ? can pitt afford to tag him

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