« Facts, opinion on Long's 'complicated' negotiation | Main | Revis to the Dolphins!!!: Not »

An honest look at Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley

If you've spent any time on this blog since the season ended you know that when the discussion has turned to free agency two names have dominated the conversation.

Mike Wallace.

Greg Jennings.

I shared with you some pertinent truths and myths about Mike Wallace earlier in the week. (As the post was at the top of the blog only a couple of hours you might want to check it out).

Now I'd like to share some Jennings knowledge from folks who know him more than me. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently graded every Packers offensive and defensive player. It is a major undertaking and, no, I'm not going to do it here because I don't think I could be fair to everyone. I have not studied enough tape to tell you exactly how Randy Starks compared to Paul Soliai.

Fair or not, right or wrong, the Journal-Sentinel did it with the Packers.

And what did the paper say about Greg Jennings and the season he had in 2012? Read:

"Will be 30 early next season, has missed 11 of the last 22 games due to injury and in all probability will be allowed to walk in March as an unrestricted free agent. Averaged merely 10.5 yards per catch, including 4.3 after the catch. Early in season as a slot, there were times it seemed he was just looking for a place to fall down. Just how strong his market value will be could hinge on how much stock scouts put on his superb performance at Minnesota in the regular-season finale. Gifted, precise runner still offers vertical stretch. There are just too many other capable players at his position and too many players at other positions that must be paid. Grade: C-plus."

And now we have a problem. I'm not ready to proclaim the paragraph above as the gospel on Jennings. But it says a lot when you consider his age, recent injury history, recent production and compare it to earlier in his career while using two critical factors:

Critical factor No. 1: The man has perhaps the best QB in the business throwing to him and he had a C-plus season and the team is ready to dump him.

Critical factor No. 2: He wants to get paid! A lot. We're talking no less than $7 million per year and likley way north of that.

That, of course, does not change the truth that Jennings is familiar with Dolphins coach Joe Philbin and vice versa. That doesn't change the fact Jennings has family members that want him to play in Miami.

But is he the right investment? Is he the best value for the buck?

Free agency is a crapshoot. We all know that. It misses more often than it hits. And it misses mostly when excellent personnel departments determine that a player isn't worth the money he's asking and let him go to another personnel department that doesn't know the player nearly as well but values him more.

The Packers have an excellent personnel department. They don't make a ton of mistakes. They let Matt Flynn walk as a free agent QB last offseason and while he got a big payday from Seattle, he couldn't beat out a rookie third-round pick name Russell Wilson. Now he's sort of a problem for the Seahawks because backup QBs should not be making $6.5 million per season.

The Dolphins wisely kicked the tires on Flynn and passed. They didn't want to pay that price. Jeff Ireland, who takes a ton of heat here, got that one absolutely right.

It didn't matter that Flynn and Philbin were boys. The Dolphins passed.

That is encouraging to me because it suggests familiarity will not blind the Dolphins with Jennings either. Let's face it, he's a good player. He would upgrade Miami. He's a great citizen.

But the price is the thing, folks. He's probably not worth what he'll be asking, particularly if there is another faster, younger, admittedly more expensive, but better fit on the market. Mike Wallace. 

And if the Dolphins are budgetting only one major expensive unrestricted free agent wide receiver signing, it should not be a player who had a C-plus contract season.

While I have you, let me also draw your attention to the tight end topic. The same Journal-Sentinel reported during the season that the Packers were going to part ways with tight end Jermichael Finley. The paper reported he'd be either traded or cut before a $3 million roster bonus hits this offseason.

Trading for him, something I initially advocated, would be a terrible approach. I was wrong in suggesting that before doing my homework.

My homework tells me getting Finley in trade would cost something like $10 million against the salary cap. No thanks.

If he's available after being cut, that is another story because then the team can work a new deal with him. But trading for that contract should be out.

Anyway, this is what the newspaper said about Finley's 2012 season:

"Dropped five passes and lost one fumble in the first five games, just one drop and no fumbles after that. Preparation for games appeared far more professional down the stretch, wasn't fixated on his numbers and let game come to him. Caught an occasional seam pass but did best work in the flats. Possesses good, not great, speed and fine athleticism. Degree of stiffness hurts him after the catch and on some routes as a split receiver. Played 47.5% of his 769 snaps from a conventional TE position and 5.7% as extra blocker in the backfield. Regressed as a run blocker, allowing 9½ "bad" runs after having just six in first four seasons. Owed a $3 million roster bonus if on roster in March. Grade: C-plus."

Oh goodie, another player who had an average season! Doesn't sound great does it?

Look, I'm not kicking Finley to the curb. He's a good player. He's better than what Miami has. But he's not the best in the business. He's not elite. He's good.

So the operative term needs to be value. We've already established trading for Finley does not offer value given that he'll bring a big cap hit with him. The question is if he's on the market as a free agent after getting cut (assuming the newspaper was correct, you never know) is can he be landed at a value cap amount?

Interesting, isn't it?

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Dashi,

Bowe is not a deep threat. He's a possession receiver.

The Dolphins don't need a possession receiver. They need a guy that can score a 60-yard TD every once and a while.

Baker Is Even More Injury Prone! And Has Already Been Replaced! In Atlanta!

Albert Is Not Going Anywhere!! Andy Reid Is Going To Pay His LT!! He Knows Better!!

Volmer? Really! The Pats Aren't Going To Give Him Up!! They Rather Let Welker Walk!! And He Is Also Injury Prone!!

Andre Smith? Really!! Should We Play His Combine Tape For You?

Trust Me!! Only Starks! Has As Good An Argument As Jake For Getting His Money!!

Top 5 At Their Position!!

You Can Honestly Say! Long and Starks Are At The Top Of Their Position!

Can't Say That About Hartline or Bush!!

Well, he did address his post directly to Mando so I guess he got his answer. :D

I think you struck a nerve Craig. And Armando what are you doing reading this nonsense?! You certainly have bigger fish to fry! Me too, see ya people.

Armando could you come in more often and set people straight on this stuff?! Get control over some of these knuckleheads. Someone was in here advocating Sanchez as an off season signing.

Dashi, you do know the game you're playing is easy to play right?

jake Long?? regressed three straight years, constantly on IR, $15M??? Everyone has question marks. But $15M is Jake Long's franchise price and that is lunacy ...

And this is coming from a Jake Long fan. I like the guy, advocate signing him but he isn't the only guy on the planet that can play OT. And if the powers that be agree that none of the free agent OTs are any good (which I doubt) then you draft one in the first or 2nd round. There are options.

A couple seasons ago, Finley was definitely the best in the business. He had a bad year, hes probably hungry now and can be had at a discount. Go get him Ireland

Mando,

Agreed on Bowe. He Is Not A Deep Threat. But I've Always Felt The Fins Should Get 1 Wr In Free Agency and 1 or 2 In The Draft. Bowe Is The Best #1 Wr Out There.

Like You Were Explaining To Craig. The Fins Need To Answer The Needs With Free Agents And Draft Picks!

Sign Bowe, and Draft 2 Fast Wr's!! Just Make Sure They Are Not Short.

Bowe and 2 Other Guys That Are 6'3" 205 and run 4.4 Flat.

We had a Bowe in Brandon Marshall, enuff with these possession WR who cant take a screen pass and go 60 yards. When was the last time we had a true deep threat. Tony Martin, Mark Duper?? Go get Wallace let the turnstile walk

Armando,

Thanks for responding. I guess what I was confused about is your inconsitencies in your comments. In one it's 'Wallace is ahomerun threat'. The other 'more misses than hits'. So you would agree that FA is a dangerous game to play?

Of course there are opportunities to miss in the draft. No question. But under the new CBA, they are FAR less crippling to a team payroll. Jets decided to play it the other way, it didn't work out and now wehre are they? Tannenbaum gets fired. Same with the Eagles and Andy Reid.


For the record, I've said REPEATEDLY, I'm in favour of adding a vet in FA at WR and to draft a WR in the second round (likely). We can't put all our eggs in one basket, relying on rookies to have impact right away nor can we blow our budget only on WRs in FA.

I'm just surprised you'd mention that both Jennings and Finley are C+'s based on the newspapers opinion. It may or may not be relevant. The reality is, ALL of these guys have question marks, as do a lot of the guys in the draft.

YG, that ridiculous conversation you and Aloco were having on this blog last night?

Deleted.

You were both either drunk or delusional or bored and none of it had anything to do with football so ...

Bowe Is The Best Red Zone Threat.

The Fins Problem Is Also That They Have Nobody To Throw A Fade To In The End zone.

Clue,

Franchise, Is A 1 Year Contract! At The End Of The Day If Jake Doesn't Want To Sign A $8-10 Mil Contract For 4-5 Years!! Then Guarantee his services for 1 More Season!!

If Somebody Wants To Trade For Him!! Then Go Right Ahead!!

Perfect Example!! D.Revis!!

He Is Basically In A Franchise Year!!

Dashi,

I'm a J?ake Long fan too but Jake at $15 mil makes NO sense. I don't get how you can agree the validity of that point and yet rip Karlos Dansby and the money he makes every chance you can.

I don't know what the answer is at tackle but it's not Jake Long at $15 mil a year.

Craig, then I'm out :) There seem to be only two rules in this blog. If we follow them Mando lets us have free reign.

1. Don't make fun of the media, especially in terms of questioning their football I.Q.

2. Don't call Mando out in his own blog. Hell, don't even call him out in a private letter! lol

I suggested that maybe some of the hits they always thank us for were generated by low life trolls who post things like Henne>Tannehill 50 times a day.

About an hour later there was a long thank you (at the bottom of a new post) to everyone in here for the amount of hits they received last year, he even pointed out the number in the thank you. Was that for me? Naaahhhh, probably just coincidence.

It was a little childish. Of course who am I to judge, I got into an internet tough guy fight with someone I don't even know! I guess we all have our moments. Peace.

Armando, YG is just an idiot ...

78 r u armandos lil' lap dog now.?
lol

Mark,

Yes, A LT or RT in The First 2 Rounds Can Answer The Situation!!

Not This Year!! Maybe Next!! We Can Waste a 1st or 2nd On A OT!! But If Ireland Wants To get The Fans In A Rage!! Draft A Linemen In The First Or Second!!

This Year We Need Play makers!! WR's, TE's, CB's, LB's!

Now If We Franchise Long! And Somebody Wants To Trade 2-3 Picks For Him!! Then Go Right Ahead!!

We Keep Building Thru The Draft!!

And We Can Waste 1 Of The 3 Second Rounders! Or 1 of The 2 First Rounders!! On A LT!!

Else Big Money Jake Looks Like The Best Option Even If For 1 More Year.

Armando, Im under the impression YG = ALoco, at least that what many here believe, personally I dont give a crap. Anyways Dashi if we franchise Jake thats 15 miliion dollars of the 38 million in cap space after we sign draft picks. Are you willing to have that much cap tied into an OL person that haven't been healthy the last 2 years??

as in all idiots,
they r entitled 2 their own opin's.
lol

Yes, I'm his lap dog. I wrote him a letter to tell him whjat I didn't like about the blog he runs. That makes me a lap dog? I'm surprised he hasn't kicked me out of here for some of the stuff I've said to him, about him, and about the south Florida media! Wouldn't have blamed him. And you can ask him yourself, I'm sure he would tell you I have been a big pain in his a$% (in here) for years now.

And when I agree with his opinion I say so. It's called being objective. You don't have to sit on one side of the fence your whole life, there are other ways to see things. If that makes me Mando's lap dog than,,,,,,,ruff, ruff!

Phins78,

What am I missing? What happened?

I questioned some of Armando's comments and while he may have been upset with me and took them in a tone that it wasn't intended to be, I think he responded, for the most part, in a respectful manner. I've always liked Armando. Don't mean we have to agree with him on everything. That's the way of the world. But I do have respect for him.

Armando, thanks for teaching these canadians a little about football!

Dashi

I like Long, but 15 million for Long is just way too much. Thats 40 percent of our cap room gone right there.

Craig,

Dansby Is Not Even A Top 15 At His Position!!

Jake Is Top 5 at His!!

If You Are The Best Or 1 Of The Best At Your Position!! Get Paid Like It!! You Don't Play Football Forever!!

Dansby Is Not A Pro bowl Type Player!! But Gets Paid!! Like The 2nd Best LB in The NFL!!

Jake Has A Track Record!! And Expects To Be Fully Healthy Next Season!!

And The Money?

It Is Only For 1 Season!!

Look At It As Next Year!! The Fins Will Have $15 Mil Extra In Cap!! With Most The Needs Answered!! And a 1st or 2nd Round Pick That They Can Use On A OT!!

Dashi, if you franchise Long, and sign your own free agents, you aren't doing much else in free agency. You talk about not wanting to take an OT in the first two rounds, I think giving Long $15M would incite the masses a lot more .. just my opinion anyway

Dashi,

Again, I'm more interested in what Jeff Ireland thinks about Dansby than what you think. 'Not even top 15'? What world are you living in? Would you like to rythmn off the guys you've have ahead of him?

The Dolphins made the decision to go into FA and sign Dansby. I like the guy, but I agree he's overpaid. This is one of the dangers of FA. We're about to overpay for Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings and we'll be having this conversation about them in 2-3 years. That's what FA is all about. Book it!!

Actually Jakes $15 and Soliai's $12!! Give The Fins $27 Mil Next Year!!

And A 29 Year Old Jake Will Cost Less Than 28 Year Jake!! Unless He Is Fully Healed!!

Then His Price Will Stay The Same!! But The Fins Will Be Better Prepared To Move On!!

Seriously I have to go! But talking in here allows me to procrastinate, I don't want to work, so I can't leave. But I have to, so this is it.

Craig, nothing happened. lol It's all good. You're entitled to your opinion and it was cool of Mando to come in and clarify his position. I just think when you get into the media stuff it gets him a little riled. It would be like Armando writing about how he knows just as much about carpentry as I do because he watches this old house on Saturday afternoons. I would probably want to set him straight.

I think you have to give the reporters a little credit here. I mean saying we know just as much as they do when they are around the players, coaches, practice field, at every game, etc. is a little short sighted. They definitely have a more intimate knowledge of the sport they cover. It's why we come here for info.

All I'm saying is I think that's where the response came from and why he might have taken slight offense to your post.

Dashi,

I'll let you hammer away on your quadruple exclamation marks all you want for the next two months. NO WAY the Dolphins are paying Jake Long to play LT next year for $15 mil. You'll be as wrong about that as you were about T'eo being a top 5 pick and about Dansby being like Channing Crowder.

It's bound to take your '95% accuracy' way down....

Craig,

Dansby Had 120 Tackles and Zero Impact Plays!!

At Best He Is Channing Crowder!!!

I Can Name 3 Rookies Better Than Dansby!! (Keuchly, B.Wagner, L.Davis)

Dansby Is Not Even The 4th Best MLB In The Division!! (Mayo, spikes, D.Harris, B.Scott)

Vilma
Willis
Lewis
Any MLB In The AFC North!
Any MLB In THE NFC WEST!!


Trust Me I Can Name More Than 15 MLB's!! Cheaper and Better Than Dansby!!

Even The Sissy From ND!! He Will Be A Better MLB!!

Phins78,

I think you're right. Again, I respect and like Armando, but I don't put a lot of stock in what some writers in Wisconsin think of their players. They weren't raised as talent evaluators but rather as 'writers'. Big difference. They get paid for how they tell the story....not if they're right about these things.

I don't really care if someone thinks Jennings is a C+ player. He helps this team. Now is he a better fit and better value than someone like Mike Wallace. That's what Jeff Ireland gets paid for.

Look, there isnt a decent FA anywhere that will join the Dolphins UNLESS we overpay them.

Why on Earth would anyone value YOUR opinion on a player more than a writer who has vastly better connections to the game than you could ever dream of having?

Earth to Craig: Your "connection" to the NFL is via a seat on a couch in front of a television.

I'll take the writers opinion, thanks.

Sure thing, Dashi. You work on that (quadruple exclamation mark).

You Must Be Joking,

You obviously have issues with reading AND comprehending. I didn't say that. Try going back and ACTUALLY READING what was said.

But nice try....

Gotta get back to work guys. It looks like the FREAKS and their aliases are coming out in full bloom....

Ciao!

I Understand We Are Going To Overpay For Free Agents!! That Is Why I Say Only Sign 1 At Each Position!!

Dashi has Never Said!! Resign! All Our Free Agents!!

3-4 Max!!

Jake, Starks, Clemons, and Hartline!!(will Cost About $30 Mil To Keep)

If We Resign Hartline Forget Wallace, Jennings, or Bowe!!

S.Smith Got Replaced During The Season!! DP and RM can't Do Worst Than Smith and Carroll!! Plus Nolan has 1 More Year Left And He Can Work As A Nickel!!

What About Matt Moore?

That Is Right!! Nothing!!

Craig = out of touch out of towner = Clueless

It would be interesting to see the production Jennings and Finley had when Philbin is in Green Bay. I think this is something to consider. Philbin knows these guys and might know how to get the most out of them. If that is the case then these guys would be great additions at the right place. Obviously that is what happened with Matt Flynn. Flynn worked in Philbins system. In Seattle not so much. I think this can be said for many players these days.

Good afternoon, Home @ 12:28

Don't think the problem with Jennings is the production while he played. he was good. It's the fact that he missed 11 of the last 22 games is the bigger risk. he may be breaking down. It's up to the organization to get a handle on why he's breaking down and whether it's chronic or it can be overcome.

Armando...thank you for deleting the nonsense you referred to earlier. Much appreciated....less of that kind of stuff and you may have a new DOLFAN on here that also wants to post about just football and no personal BS!

Craig,

Hate If You Want.

And I'm Sorry!!!! The First Time The (!!!!) Was Funny!! But The Second Time Writing it Out The Long Way, Just Makes You Look Like A Arse!! !!

Here Is A Quintuple One !!!!! For You Craig!! Since I've Heard You Like The Long Ones!!!!!

Jake Is Going To Get His Money!! And Dansby Sucks!!

Oh, and Craig!! Dashi at least watches the game!! Not Just The Highlights!!

Well an interesting conversation has just sprung up. One I'm sure Armando is working on. Darrelle Revis!

Is he worth it the big money he'll demand, along with the trades and draft picks the Jets will want?

2 Real Trolls In Here!!

Not Now!! But I Think Everyone KNOWS That Only 2 Clowns Come On Here!! And Have A Sword Swallowing Contest!!

1 of Them Actually Talks Football From Time To Time!! And The Other One Is A Senile Old Man!!

Wallace had a ton of drops and one of the lowest catch % in the NFL amongst starters. Overrated.

I'll take two guys with something to prove. Over somebody who thinks he's proven all he needs to eight days a week and I think both Jennings and Finley fit that description.

I also think it's a little presumptuous that Matt Flynn wouldn't have beaten out Tannehill.

ARMANDO PROVES TO IDIOTS AGAIN:

YG DOES NOT = ALOCO / ALOCO DOES NOT = YG

HERE IT IS AGAIN IDIOTS:

YG, that ridiculous conversation you and Aloco were having on this blog last night?

Deleted.

You were both either drunk or delusional or bored and none of it had anything to do with football so ...

Posted by: Armando Salguero | January 24, 2013 at 11:43 AM

IF WE WERE THE SAME POSTER HE WOULD NOT HAVE STATED IT LIKE HE STATED IT. DONT IDIOTS EVER TIRE OF BEING IDIOTS? LOL...

YG, I think everyone knows your crazy by now, when you get drunk you use both aliasis to posts. You think your fooling everyone you and I both know your Aloco.

Keep drinking, Im sure your liver appreciate it.

My Offseason Predictio:

JKeff Ireland will draft some players and Jeff Ireland will sign some fa's. Whether theyre our fa's or another teams fa's.

Now, watch, someone here wont even understand this. LOL......

Fire them all! Fresh start in 2013!

What FA would play for Ireland unless he were "overpaid"?

Find a QB!

Better to be crazy and know it, than think youre not and show it. This means you "A Regular Here".

I know who you are behind that alias mother's cowardly boy. LOL...

Mando's got a new post re Revis.

It will be interesting to see what Ireland will do this year. He has had his blunders (Dez Bryant), but has also shown good judgement as well (passing on Flynn). And, he has put us in a nice position for this year; we have cap money AND draft picks. He had hit on about 50% of his draft picks, which is average for a GM, provided you blame the Tuna for some of the more questionable ones (Pat White). And, at least he's talking as if he knows what's going on ("We need playmakers!") and has a plan to fix it ("It was all by design.").

Any of the available FA WR's would be an upgrade for us because we had one of the worst Wide Receiver Corps in the NFL! So, we can expect at least one (maybe two) veteran WR's to be added in Free Agency. And, probably another WR in the draft (maybe two since he likes to double down on a position). We HAVE to get better at catching the ball and scoring...that's a given.

At Tight End, a lot depends on if Fasano is re-signed. A FA TE is not out of the question. And, we have no idea of how they're grading out the TE's on the roster that didn't get much (if any) playing time (Egnew). Drafting a pass-catching TE is a possibility.

Cornerback is another position of need. So, is a pass-rushing DE to pair with Wake. There are holes still on this team that need to be filled! Yet, somehow, we were 2nd in our division last year with a 7-9 record (plus a couple of more that we should have won) in spite of the fact that everyone said we'd only win about 3 or 4 games! So, instead of the arrow pointing down for the Fins, like everyone predicted, we maintained mediocrity!

Now, it's time to point the arrow up! We need....er, Jeff Ireland needs to put us above the .500 mark...and in a BIG way! The Fins NEED to beat Buffalo (twice), the Jets (twice), and at least split with the Pats to even sniff the playoffs. They need to score more points and recover more takeaways. Plain and simple, right?

This is the make-it-or-break-it year for Mr. Ireland. Show us you're as smart as you think you are. You've got money & you've got cash. Dazzle us with your brilliance!

Or, take your BS elsewhere...

YG has not shown nearly nearly the same Education that ALoco has. So, they must be different People.

BOWE WILL WANT MORE THAN JENNINGS.

AND BOWE TURNING 29 YEARS OLD, PEOPLE SAY JENNINGS IS OLD AT 30?

WALLACE IS THE MAN FOR THE JOB.

HE WILL BACK UP THOSE SAFTIES.


I like the extensive work you've done in sharing the additional information on two impending big free agent names. However, I do believe they can do well in Miami. I am not 100% convinced either that they may be worth the money they're asking. I do have a feeling that teams like the Patriots would swoop these two up just because they can and most likely turn both of them into their high profile stature they had two seasons ago. If Miami thinks there is a better approach I am all for it but again taking a conservative approach is not ideal, especially with Ireland on the hot seat. This is an all in year for him. This is unequivocal from any other year he's had in Miami before so his approach needs to be aggressive and ensure that going forward big names produce big numbers and catch up with the Patriots.

I'd like to see Wallace or Jennings in aqua and orange. I don't care how you look at it, either of these two guys is an IMMEDIATE upgrade to our receiving corps. Mike Wallace/Greg Jennings on one side, Hartline on the other, and Bess in the slot (the position he plays best) - you can't tell me that doesn't sound enticing. Pair that with an athletic tight end (Jared Cook anyone?) and we have greatly improved our playmakers on the field. Just my two cents, but it's worth a nickel!

Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!
Mike Wallace or bust!

The draft and Free Agency has to get what the Fins need to compete with teams like the Ravens and 49ers.

« 1 2 3 4 »

The comments to this entry are closed.