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The cost of doing business ain't cheap

Let's put aside the fanciful talk of adding this guy and re-signing that guy for a moment and consider what all this stuff is going to cost, shall we?

Let me scare you right off the bat:

If the Dolphins want to add an elite wide receiver this offseason in free agency -- assuming one is even available -- it is going to cost around $9-$11 million per season. That's according to former NFL agent and salary cap expert Joel Corry,  who now writes about NFL contracts and the salary cap for the National Football Post.

"The high end UFA WRs will be looking at Vincent Jackson's 5-year, $55,555,555 deal ($26M GTD) as a benchmark," Corry tweeted to me on Thursday.

That is $11 million a year, folks.

Obviously, there are two things at play that must be stipulated.

That price is for a Vincent Jackson-type wide receiver. The player asking for that money must offer that enormous amount of talent. Jackson caught 72 passes for 1,384 yards (a whopping 19.2 yards per catch) and eight TDs in 2012. I'm not certain anyone on the market rises to that level of ability.

Jackson is a deep threat all day long and he also happens to be 6-5 and 230 pounds. (Yeah, amazing).

And the $11 million is the starting asking price. It is not necessarily the final price.

While any elite wide receiver on the market may want $11, I'm sure most will be talked off that skyscrapper ledge to a much lower floor. I'd say, and this is a conservative estimate, the elite wide receiver on the market this year will get around $10 million per season and it'll fall sharply from there. Remember, Wes Welker made $9.55 million under a franchise tag in 2012 and would cost $11.4 million if tagged in 2013 -- which is unlikely.

By the way, the cost of doing business in the wide receiver market won't be cheap for the Dolphins even if they stick with what they got. Pending free agent Brian Hartline, a No. 2 receiver, will be looking for $5-$6 million per year on the open market if he gets there.

Greg Jennings? He'll be hovering in the $8-$9 million annual range.

And the price at other positions won't be much cheaper.

Elite cornerbacks are expecting $10 million per season. Agents will be looking at Brandon Carr's five-year $50 million deal with Dallas and Jason McCourty's 5-year, $43 million deal to stay in Tennesee and see that as the numbers to shoot for.

So Carr is averaging $10 million a year while McCourty is averaging $8.6 million per year.

That's the zip code cornerback Sean Smith expects to inhabit at the start of free agency. And yes, he's likely going to free agency. I don't think the Dolphins will pay that kind of money for Smith. They see him as a good player who still has unmet potential. They do not see him as a game-changer or playmaker.

There are also questions about how Smith will react professionally once he gets paid. Will he cruise? Will he feel entitled? Will the work ethic suffer?

(Kindly post comments on whether you believe Sean Smith is worth $8.6 million per season in the appropriate section below).

That's the cost of doing business, folks.

The Dolphins will be lucky to re-sign Randy Starks for the $6 million a year Paul Soliai got in March of 2012. The Herald's Barry Jackson tells me the sides have opened talks but are not close.

I'll say.

I would imagine Starks will be the highest-paid DT on the team, seeing as he's the only one that's been to a couple of Pro Bowls. But I don't see how the Dolphins can pay him the $8 million per year that Vince Wilfork makes or certainly not the $12 million per year that Haloti Ngata makes.

So that might land him in the $7 million a year slot.

That might well be the cost of doing business.

Comments

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Only a Canadian could still be high on Matt Choke Ryan.

Matt Ryan was LUCKY to squeak out a win against Seattle in his first playoff win.

Matt Ryan, with a 17 point lead AT HOME with the BEST receiver corp in the NFL still chokes and loses.

Yeah, big loss.

From the SS......there’s a feeling in some circles that the Dolphins need an insurance policy at quarterback, in case Tannehill starts wandering down the Chad Henne path of malaise/regression.


Here are the top 10 picks of the 2008 draft:

1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan
4 Oakland Raiders Darren McFadden
5 Kansas City Chiefs Glenn Dorsey
6 New York Jets Vernon Gholston
7 New Orleans Saints Sedrick Ellis
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Derrick Harvey
9 Cincinnati Bengals Keith Rivers
10 New England Patriots Jerod Mayo


Maybe Mayo was the best pick. The others underperformed or can't stay healthy.

Devlin is 6'4 220 and a very accurate passer. He may be our insurance policy.

Devlin is a practice squad lifer.

Deep down, of his own accord, I got the feeling Ireland wanted to give Henne more time still. Ireland has too much patience with his players. He wants to believe they will blossom even when they haven't after 3 seasons. I hope the emergence of Julio Jones, AJ Green, Wilson, RG3, and Luck have taught Ireland that good players play well sooner than later.

Trech,

I believe Marshall was on shaky ground the day Philbin was hired.

When Marshall let it be known that he wanted out, Philbin was was probably all too willing to oblige. I would have been too, knowing that I was going to be bringing in a rookie QB and running an offense that doesn't necessarily feature a "Diva" WR.

I also think the Nightclub incident was just the greenlight for a plan(the trade)that was ALREADY in place. I mean usually teams wait for Police reports and details before even making any comments, let alone taking any actions. None of this happened and the trade was made.......QUICKLY-LOL. I think it was already "In The Works".

And finally, I don't knock the deal too much either way. Bellicheck jettisons players in similar situations career-wise all the time. He gets value for them BEFORE their too far over the hill or before their talents fade so much that you can't get any return.

If anything, I might.......I say....I MIGHT, knock Ireland for bringing him in, in the first place(A little maybe). But even then, at least he was doing his best in bringing in what alot of us thought would be the answer to our offensive woes.

Ultimately, I'm just GLAD Marshall's gone and that we have moved on. Dwelling on the past won't do alot of good for us at this stage of the game. I'm just hoping Ireland **ASTOUNDS** us all and hits Home Run after Home Run with this 46 million and these 9 draft picks!

ValHalla!!!!

I hope the emergence of Julio Jones, AJ Green, Wilson, RG3, and Luck have taught Ireland that good players play well sooner than later.

Posted by: trech | January 27, 2013 at 11:39 PM

Good point! I think alot of GM's suffer from this affliction.

Sometimes the best thing you can do is "Cut Bait" and Move On!

PS: I think Devlin has ALL the tools. He needs some good reps and opportunity. I'm Montana Mike has alot to base his statement on above(how could he?).

You just never know about QB's until their given a fair shot. I'll Brady out of the hat as a Prime Example. I know Brady's are VERY few and FAR between, but thats not the point. The point is, you just never know until they're given the opportunity!

ValHalla!!!!

I'm SURE Montana Mike has...........

Arrrrrrrgh!

It looked to me they were choosing between Marshall and Dez. I don't see how they could have splurged for both. What I read, aside from 'the question' nonsense, was that Dez was not exactly the sharpest guy in the mind, not exactly a student of the game, little to no knowledge of defenses, and that was what put off Ireland, so he decided to go with Marshall.

I like Dez better, a gamer, but who knows if he can stay out of trouble enough to be a player they can depend on for years to come. The guy has issues.

As a medical professional, I suggest Ireland be quarantined & thoroughly tested before & during the draft.

No Human Contact.

Why would THill regress? He's smarter than Most.

I'Am stil waiting for the Odin/Douche Wedding, Hey Boy's when is the big day?
And Where should I send the Gifts?

Treck , I think Matt Ryan is the best pick there, you need to rethink that one , I wish Ireland had a had half a brain and picked him, but no we got Hennehill another 3or 4 yrs of he`s good I swear , I wouldn t have pickerd him if he wasn t , only thing Ireland is good at, is fooling Ross

The 'grocery store' mentality is kinda funny. Go get, go get, go get..........Lets just play Devil's advocate at a conservative level;
Jake Long @ 8
Sean Smith @ 5.5
Fasano @ 3
Starks @ 6
Bush @ 5
Hartline @ 4.5
________________
TOTAL = 32
+ Rookie allotment (approx. 4)
+ injury allocation for the year (approx. 4)
________________
TOTAL = 40
So now that WHOPPING "available" money # doesn't look so grand...like maybe 2 2nd tier 'compete' type players.
Now maybe they don't sign all of the above and I guarantee they don't sign them for the VERY conservative #'s posted above (which would eat away at even more of the TOTALS above.
We ARE NOT in this grand place of free spending/wheelin'-dealin' many seem to want to think we are.
My personal opinion would be to definately let Sean Smith walk - he's just not that good & certainly not worth anywhere close to what he's asking. Let Jake Long walk unless he signs for MAX 8 and is open to move to RT. Sign Starks, Fasano, Hartline & Bush - but be as smart as possible.

It is funny how people get on here and say so matter of factly, let this guy walk, etc. It is not as if this team is oozing with talent, hence they have not drafted well. What makes any of these possible GMs so sure that replacements, or upgrades are going to be found in the draft, or free agency?

Warfield, good post. Ireland has been given credit for putting the team in great position for 2013 via the salary cap but I don't see it. If the team expects to build in 2013 on the previous season's record by adding new talent, it seems at least sensible to expect that it must have the necessary pieces from the 2012 team.

There are 19 FAs from the 2012 team (20 if one counts K Nate Kaeding). Just signing the bigger pieces you mention leaves the Dolphins with little money for new blood.

MAYBE they sign some of their own with good hometown discounts. MAYBE they rework some contracts or cut somebody and free up some cash. MAYBE they let a few pieces walk. MAYBE a big name out there in FA falls in love with the Dolphins and comes to Miami cheap. That's a lot of MAYBE(s).

What's apparent is that Ireland MUST make some near incredible moves in trades, FA and the draft, hitting on a high percentage total, if the team's record is to improve next year. That's a pretty tall order even for the best of GMs.

G Money, yes expecting Ireland to replace any existing starter is delusional given his pathetic record. This team can ill afford to lose anyone especially with all the cap space they have.

Doesnt Matt Ryan remind you exactly of Dan Marino?

Matt Ryan suffered a severe shoulder injury in the 2nd half of the 49er game or the Falcons would have easily won and been in the SB.

Jake Long was a big waste of time and money. He never helped us win. Good riddance Jake. We missed the boat on Matt Ryan for him.

Posted by: Steve in Ottawa | January 27, 2013 at 11:22 PM

Steve, this is something I've always said (not that he didn't help us win). But the problem I always had with the Long pick was the biggest need this team had since Marino left was at QB. With the #1 pick in the entire Draft, I was flabbergasted why the team wouldn't get their QB. But it points to something else. First, talent evaluation. Henne was really the #1 QB on their board (if you believe Parcells). So he (and we can argue how much Ireland co-signed), were WAY OFF on their thinking there. But also, draft strategy.

The Falcons were in the same boat that year. They had the #2 pick. They got their QB, THEN they trading BACK into the 1st round, to get their LT. They did BOTH! In the 1st round. Our trades last few years were always to trade back for more picks later. Picks that really never materialized any true playmakers. Those decisions hurt this team long-term.

Miami needs a better strategy AND better talent evaluation. We don't need 10 picks (if all are acorns). We'd be much better off to trade those picks to get 2-3 REAL playmakers every year. Then we'd see us evolving to a competitive team, and not just a mediocre team year after year.

DC, I agree we should use our picks to either trade up or trade back into the 1st round. Every time I hear a ding in espn and see a trade has been made in the first round there is no excuse why it shouldn't be Miami making that trade ASSUMING they don't blow the pick.

It would be nice to have a draft home run. Revis-esque. Pouncy you can say was a home run but he fits a similar kind of Long debate in that OL is necessary but doesn't win us playoff games

Ireland is in way over his head. He's playing checkers when all the other GM's are playing chess.

Bill, of the guys Warfield mentioned I believe the only necessary pieces are Hartline, Starks, and Long all at the right prices. Starks can walk and we'd still have a great DL. If Hartline walks its almost a guarantee that we:

A) sign Jennings OR Wallace
B) draft a WR in 1st round

We will not sign both WR and we may use 1st on DE then trade back in to get WR (and then maybe trade up or use low 2nd for another WR).

Bush can stay at a legitimate hometown discount but he'll still want some money. For all his star power he's still a pretty poor guy (in NFL terms).

Long can stay at a legitimate price but anything higher we can't afford the risk. That opens us up to another high draft pick on an OL or NE's Vollmer for the right side which is a slight upgrade but nothing drastic.

This offseason can be a home run or an utter failure, and if it's an utter failure we can be looking at another 5 years of 7-9 unless Tannehill suddenly becomes elite

Ths is a Team Game, pal.

The 3 picks for D Thomas are Irescum's claim to fame (shame)!

DC,

It's not accurate to say 'the Dolphins had Henne listed as the best QB in the draft'. Sorry my friend, that's a fabrication of the truth. What they have have said is they looked at the three QBs and had Ryan, Flacco and Henne on the same level (ie no discernable difference). Again, that was a mistake on their part but there's nothing saying they had Henne as a better QB than the other two.

Ryan was the fourth pick, not the 2nd.

Sorry, 3rd. Stupid fingers. Chris Long went #2

One of the guys I'm intrigued by is Micheal Johnson with the Bengals. Not sure how much it would cost to sign him but he'd be a GREAT bookend for Wake. I'd much rather the money was spent on him than Starks. He'd bring a dimension we're in need of to this team. This would be an alternate to drafting a DE in the first. If we landed Johnson, I'd be in favour of a trade back in the first and the possibility of landing a WR and Ertz. I'd also be in favour of trading up for Ertz, late first. Adding in FA, will give us the flexibility to move around in the draft, if necessary.

unless Tannehill suddenly becomes elite
Posted by: MiamiD20 | January 28, 2013 at 09:12 AM


Ya got a better chance of hitting the super lotto!!


This is a bad footbaall team with a delusional and hysterical fan base and it isn't going to get better anytime soon with the clueless buffoons running things.MLOA.

I also remember reading some urban legend that parcells really targetted Flacco all along and thought he'd be there with the 2nd round pick for sure where they ended up taking Merling. Same front office made that mistake with Jimmy Graham. Trademark of this front office ... thinking they're the only ones that see something in a player nobody else does. Thankfully they reversed that trend last year in taking Tannehill and didn't listen to a lot of people who thought they were overdraftign because either KC or Cleveland would've taken Tannehill and we would've been left with Weeden who is the same as Tannehill right now but many years older and much lower upside as it turns out. Let the draft analysts stick their drafft chart up their arse. See a guy that's going to help your team the most and take him. Tannehill wassn't even a big reach because I remember espn having a 93 grade on the kid which would put him about 15th in this year's draft.

Ryan was the fourth pick, not the 2nd.


Posted by: Mark in Toronto | January 28, 2013 at 09:36 AM

DUMB CANADIENS HOUR

Good call Craig, johnson, if available would be a much better use of money FOR THIS TEAM than Starks. Starks is fine but paying him $8M is like buying a Mercedes when you live in a one bedroom apartment.

Craig M for MORON!

D20, I am on record that the surest way forward, given this year's salary cap, is to sign most of Miami's big $ FAs back and work in acorns in FA to fill some holes. Anybody wanting to break the team budget in FA, plays for somebody else.

If the team can get Wallace or Jennings under those stipulations, I'm all for it although I'd rather use high draft picks on 2 WRs & DE and try to fix the OL and CBs in FA. Small steps are not as satisfying to fans but don't carry the risk to the team.

I, too, am looking at this off season as possibly getting good- or causing the franchise to languish for several more years. Go Jeff!

Mark,

It's for exactly that reason that I want them to 'target' guys this year. I remember the year Gronk was coming out. I think it was bobby12 and myself that were really championing the team to pick him (you may have been part of that too). He was the guy I wanted us to draft most. The year dez Bryant came out, the guy I wanted most, at the end of the first was D. Thomas, WR from Denver. I have two guys I want the team to draft this year. One is Ertz and the other is Patterson. I like this guy the most long term. Time will tell.

Mark,

I don't get all the people calling for Starks as a must resign. Good player, no question....but we're not one player away. Starks has done a good job here but like Long, the price is going to get to be too much. Time to move on and regroup. Johnson brings some things to the table that Starks doesn't. There may be others like him in FA.

I wasn't firmly on the Gronk bandwagon that year becuase of the injury and depth in the TE position but if I rehash how Ireland completely botched that draft I may up taking it out on YG all day and this blog will completely disintegrate.... further.

I also do remember you championing Thomas.

I agree with you this year in that the true difference maker long term for this franchise has a better chance coming from the draft than free agency....although a strong argument can be made for spending some money now ona guy to step in because the position is lacking.

In general I'd rather the team spend the money on the areas of tremendous weaknesses than spending it on good players where we already have depth. That philosophy won't really improve the team and your utility for the dollar spent is much lower. You drafted Odrick ...use him properly ... and spend that $8m on Johnson would make the team better .. and faster .. and a whole lot better against the pass and also free up a top pick this year to address another weakness.

Exactly, Mark. Well said.

How's the ice fishing in your part of the world these days. Apparently there are guys here who think that's what we do. Ignorance of the highest order. I've never been ice fishing in my life. How about you?

When Brandon Marshall was involved in the bar incident Ireland thought he'd be suspended for the season and traded him in a panic. Of course no backup plan. And of course Ireland was wrong.

It's not some Craig, it's two morons that go by the handles YG and the man formerly known as Home. best to ignore them as their ignorance speaks volumes. I believe Home is a smart guy but gets off being an internet pest. Smart man but very immature. Yg on the other hand... 60 years old ... refers to stupid arguments online as "wars" and has got by on the generosity of his state for most of his life. Stupid, old, fat, dirty are all words that come to mind with this guy. It's a miracle he made it to that age. His existence is truly pathetic and he should be felt sorry for more than trageted although I'm guiltier than most in coming down hard on him.

Craig, that's how I remember hearing it, but I looked back, and what they said was Henne would be cheaper therefore the better choice (not a talent decision). Either way, horrible decision by Parcells, proving the game has passed him by. And led to other horrible decisions (Pat White, etc.) that has put the team in the position of mediocrity they are in.

And then you get the brandon Marshall fan club. For a guy who for two years did nothing but steal money from these fans ... talks about what he would do with an elite QB ... gets back with his boyfriend Cutler who then proceeds to be part of that juggernaut 29th ranked pass offense (worse than ours) and is part of team that AGAIN misses the playoffs and AGAIN gets his head coach fired....

More reasons why Parcells shouldn't be assessing offensive talent:

* How Parcells ranks the quarterbacks: 1st: Newton, Blaine Gabbert; 2nd: Ryan Mallett; Christian Ponder, Jake locker; 3rd: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick; 4th: Ricky Stanzi

* Parcells said Dalton doesn’t have prototypical size, and Mallett isn’t elusive and has durability issues (was injured for his last two spring practices at Arkansas)

- Palm Beach Post

Wonder what he would have thought about Russell?


Call me naive, but I don't see the question as being: will the Dolphins pay for talent, but whether
the FA players fit into the vision that JP and JI have for the team going foward. If they see JL making more than $8 mil.(3 years), SS making more than $5 mil.(3 years), BH making more than $5 mil. (4 years), RB making more than 4.5 mil.(2 years),RS making more than $6 mil.(3 years), then they either aren't signing FA's well or drafting well. However you see it, please take into acct. that Fl. has no state income tax, is a warm weather site, and has a few efficient tax lawyers. Call it low-ball, or whatever you want, but the above players probably aren't the best judge of their future worth to a seriously rebuilding team. Having said that, "it's a business"! Go Dolphins !!

Sign Wallace,Jennings and Dustin Keller and don't look back then continue with needs and bpa in the draft ,we must make an impact enough is enough way people are little school girls wawawa bunch of cry babies

yeah,irecor is gonna pull some rabbits out of his axx.
lol.

That is an impact ,there you have it

If you sign those three guys ryan is a top 5 passer

Tired of hearing the 'we blew it taking by taking Jake Long first overall' fan club. Where is it written that the first overall has to be a slam dunk Hall of Famer? Sure in hindsight perhaps we should have picked Ryan but it looks like the Rams got it wrong too, picking Chris Long second. Looks like the Niners got it wrong taking Alex Smith first overall, the Raiders got it wrong taking Russell, the Browns got it wrong taking Couch and the Jets got it wrong taking Keyshawn Johnson. Also, still an undecided on Cam Newton. If you're going to judge Long on the Dolphins record since he's been here, then it's time to do the same with Newton.

I say do not overpay ANY of the Free Agents on the Dolphins team. We have proven we can lose with them, so if they go, I believe we could lose without them. I'll bet I am right too.

Naive Longtime Phinfan,


State tax breaks hardly compensate for a cheapskate owner and a cespool minor league team with no playoff chance.

And let's not forget about Sam Bradford (always take a QB first overall, apparently) and Drew Stafford (team was 4-12 this year and we're told QB has most impact on the team). So I guess maybe we're not the only team in history to get it wrong, unlike what many on here will tell us.

It's time to put up or shut up,it's all on Mr. Ireland and his staff so lets enjoy the ride

So one march 12th at 401 pm I expect a signing or 3 we shall see

Craig Moron,


So if other GM's made a mistake its ok that Ireland does? Misery likes company? Too Funny! Excuses are for losere!

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