« Revis to the Dolphins!!!: Not | Main | Fine TEs important 20 years ago and today »

The cost of doing business ain't cheap

Let's put aside the fanciful talk of adding this guy and re-signing that guy for a moment and consider what all this stuff is going to cost, shall we?

Let me scare you right off the bat:

If the Dolphins want to add an elite wide receiver this offseason in free agency -- assuming one is even available -- it is going to cost around $9-$11 million per season. That's according to former NFL agent and salary cap expert Joel Corry,  who now writes about NFL contracts and the salary cap for the National Football Post.

"The high end UFA WRs will be looking at Vincent Jackson's 5-year, $55,555,555 deal ($26M GTD) as a benchmark," Corry tweeted to me on Thursday.

That is $11 million a year, folks.

Obviously, there are two things at play that must be stipulated.

That price is for a Vincent Jackson-type wide receiver. The player asking for that money must offer that enormous amount of talent. Jackson caught 72 passes for 1,384 yards (a whopping 19.2 yards per catch) and eight TDs in 2012. I'm not certain anyone on the market rises to that level of ability.

Jackson is a deep threat all day long and he also happens to be 6-5 and 230 pounds. (Yeah, amazing).

And the $11 million is the starting asking price. It is not necessarily the final price.

While any elite wide receiver on the market may want $11, I'm sure most will be talked off that skyscrapper ledge to a much lower floor. I'd say, and this is a conservative estimate, the elite wide receiver on the market this year will get around $10 million per season and it'll fall sharply from there. Remember, Wes Welker made $9.55 million under a franchise tag in 2012 and would cost $11.4 million if tagged in 2013 -- which is unlikely.

By the way, the cost of doing business in the wide receiver market won't be cheap for the Dolphins even if they stick with what they got. Pending free agent Brian Hartline, a No. 2 receiver, will be looking for $5-$6 million per year on the open market if he gets there.

Greg Jennings? He'll be hovering in the $8-$9 million annual range.

And the price at other positions won't be much cheaper.

Elite cornerbacks are expecting $10 million per season. Agents will be looking at Brandon Carr's five-year $50 million deal with Dallas and Jason McCourty's 5-year, $43 million deal to stay in Tennesee and see that as the numbers to shoot for.

So Carr is averaging $10 million a year while McCourty is averaging $8.6 million per year.

That's the zip code cornerback Sean Smith expects to inhabit at the start of free agency. And yes, he's likely going to free agency. I don't think the Dolphins will pay that kind of money for Smith. They see him as a good player who still has unmet potential. They do not see him as a game-changer or playmaker.

There are also questions about how Smith will react professionally once he gets paid. Will he cruise? Will he feel entitled? Will the work ethic suffer?

(Kindly post comments on whether you believe Sean Smith is worth $8.6 million per season in the appropriate section below).

That's the cost of doing business, folks.

The Dolphins will be lucky to re-sign Randy Starks for the $6 million a year Paul Soliai got in March of 2012. The Herald's Barry Jackson tells me the sides have opened talks but are not close.

I'll say.

I would imagine Starks will be the highest-paid DT on the team, seeing as he's the only one that's been to a couple of Pro Bowls. But I don't see how the Dolphins can pay him the $8 million per year that Vince Wilfork makes or certainly not the $12 million per year that Haloti Ngata makes.

So that might land him in the $7 million a year slot.

That might well be the cost of doing business.

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

NE has two years left if that, I wish they got to the Super Bowl instead and than lost again but oh well. I think a WR core of Jennings, Hartline, Bess, Patterson, Swope, and Mathews, with a TE group if Fasano, Clay, Ertz, is the perfect blend of veteran and young studs. Than next year we can worry about upgrading linebackers! Sherman cuts of Thills training wheels now that he's got some exp. everyone is on the colts but we coulda beat em thx to butterfingers and Dan not the man anymore. Indy is going no where next year, no draft picks no cap and Wayne is old. Ireland built us the 4th youngest team with a good core and picks. We can be Seattle of 2013!

However, I can even see regressing as low as 5-11, if Ireland gets it all wrong.

Yesterday's Gone 4Ever | January 25, 2013 at 03:45 PM

While the mixing and matching, adding and subtracting of contracts in a CAPPED profession must be difficult when factoring in DEAD MONEY ect... I expect an impact non-the-less in the particular Off-Season.

In the ultimate bluff game the Off-Season has become since FA, I equate the position of one J.Ireland to that of a Poker player sitting at the table holding a great hand. 5 picks in top 90 with ability to maneuver close to 40% of his available spending capital and enough time to have learned his job leaving ZERO EXCUSES!

If he blows this upcoming Off-Season without a solid FA addition at skill pos. in deep FA group and then blows the D heavy draft (especially at Safety) then you can forget about your 2013 prediction. This team will be thrown for the next 5 Yrs. if we mess this up. The entire F.O. getting blown up with another torturous Org. rebuild from the bottom floor up. You know I'm no Ireland fan but I'm pulling for him to get it right because the consequences are a FRANCHISE KILLER till the next decade.

Theres another big question for miami also, Ryan Tannehill did nothing to endorse the future in miami at QB this year.(as many people like to crown him to be)

So they get a Jennings or Wallace in FA as a supposed deep threat, Tannehill showed plenty this year he has trouble with throwing deep outs so what if that continues next year??

Will people actually say that Pat Devlin is the future at QB for miami??


Thats just Sad!

..Had to run out for a minute. Back to Bush.

True we have a known commodity in Bush. But I am saying is I believe it is worth the risk of handing the reigns over to Lamamr Miller. Bush is what he is. Not the best, not the worst. Perhaps a bit better then average..Anyway, Risk is sometimes something a team has to take on to get better. could letting Bush go in favor if Miller backfire? Sure. But what would be be losing in the worst case scenario, and by making this move what could we gain in the best case scenario.

I think if you weigh both. What we would lose is not close to the possibilities we could gain.

When they say we don't need a number one (like Marshall) they mean they need a bunch of number 2/3 like Bess and Hartline in the WCO. Skilled non-selfish young team, coaches meshed well. We were one of the least penalized and youngest teams so ya thx Ireland. Pls don't screw up so the idiots get you fired

Why should the cost scare me? I'm not paying for him, Ross is. If anything Ross should be scared. You guys fail to realize real money is involved. You think the guy likes pissing millions away? I drop $50 on the floor and lose it and I am peeved. Imagine losing millions on a bad contract.

I'd keep bush just based on the strategy of, "keeping a weapon from an enemy" he's not going to cripple us and just wants to be #1.

Am I the only one who feels that "IF" Marcus Lattimore fell to RD-4 he's worth the risk??

DD, I say pay Bush but also agree Miller should be the primary ball carrier and use Bush a lot more as a receiver the whole year. 15 touches each per game. 15 rushes for Miller, 10 rushes for bush, 5 receptions for Bush. Plenty of work for both. I mean, you need 2 rbs anyway....

For short yarddage, start using the darn QB sneek more. Tannehill is a very large man and is a good runner....

Since when is a 1000 yd season a bad thing? Bush is a great weapon. So is Fasano, 41/41 100% catch rate is a valuable weapon, he not gronk but he's not joe montanya neither. Man all you madden gm sure don't know how to build a team! Stop listening to Miami media lol and look at production stats and potential

DarrylDunphy | January 25, 2013 at 04:17 PM

We traded to land in Miller a player with the same skill set as Bush and have to believe it was done looking at Bush the 2013 FA more than Bush the player amybe we could double down and hedge our bests with Lattimore if available in RD-4. Barring a miraculous turn around Thomas won't see a vet contract offer and feel the RB pos. hasn't been completely addressed yet.

sign hartline, fasano, clemmons, and bush and get everythig else in draft.

2 corners, 2 wr, datone jones, and eric fisher.

Mark, Darryl

The real ? is in how you stack up Reggie's 1,000 yard Season, if memory serves he ran for 1,078. He need only average 65 yards a game to reach that mark and then you ask if you feel that production worth his demands? I believe him a great roll player (ultimate Tony Nathan with speed) but then doesn't Miller have that same potential at a fraction of the price right now?

We have to let Starks go Odrick is wasted at De. Starks will get a nice contract somewhere else and NE is just waiting for us to cut Hartline and laugh at us when we get Welker for 10m a year lol. If the J-O-K-E-S had cap space I bet they steal bush and NE steal Hartline. We need to resign our guys not other guys trash

Armando,

What's the cost of losing. Figure that out and $9M to $11M is a deal.

..I said earlier that I had no idea what sort of contract Bush would be offered, what he thinks is fair. Or what his value on the market may be. I could be totaly off and the team could be able to sign him at a reasonable cost(What that is???)

I also don't know how Bush feels. I assume he would want a bigger contract with a commitment the team is going to use him as a feature back. Would he accept a leeser role here? Would he go elsewhere to a contender for less? A lot of what if's.

My opinion is only half of the story. It is purely from the point that I don't beleive the team should pay Bush the going rate for a feature back on his 3rd contract, If they come to some understanding that keepd Bush here..I'm fine with that. If that is in a role of situational back. His days of number one runnig back in Miami, IMO should be over.

Sean Smith has had 4 years to turn the corner. He hasn't and wont ever. Goodbye. That TD he gave up against the Colts that every other corner in the NFL would've picked off is simply inexcusable. Or how about how Tom Brady torches him every time we play? Sorry, Id like more than a handful of interceptions over 4 years for my 55 million. Enjoy disappointing some other fanbase Mr. Smith.

What happens first. Jamarcus Russell gets a starting QB contract or Ryan Leaf gets out of prison?

I would be careful judging Bush's value solely by his production. I don't even think we've used the guy right the whole time he was here. I mean, he had to be a tough yardage runner because we had nobody else to do the job. This guy used correctly is a 1,500-1,600 yard back in this league. 800 rush, 800 receiving. I spent many a Sunday frustrated watching the use of reggie Bush. It was like the Corvette i saw the other day with a trailer hitch.

Miller is a back capable of big runs but he's not Reggie. he's a little slower (but plenty fast) and much bigger. reggie is barely 200 lbs and is a gazelle. Miller is a one cut runner who hits the hole fast at 220lbs. he's got a little more pop. he's also not a natural receiver.

In my opinion, it's not an either or scenario ... it's a both. Forget draftign another back unless it's with a throw away pick. We have plenty of cover there. Free up the draft pick, sign Bush and you get your RB cover and it's also like adding another receiver. Someone like in the Percy Harvin mold. We need playmakers and theres one under our nose that we haven't been able to get the most of. Give Reggie the $6M, it will be a bargain compared to the production Wallace will give you at $10M

"So they get a Jennings or Wallace in FA as a supposed deep threat, Tannehill showed plenty this year he has trouble with throwing deep outs so what if that continues next year??"

Out patterns, (short, intermediate, deep) are not Tannehill's problem. Its deep middle, deep sideline, and hitting the tight end or back on a quick seam route.

Hopefully the market brings Sean down lol I think we used him wrong he looked good on fitz and Aj but can't cover Welker, why? Play design he is a cover corner meant to cover BM CJ type receivers not mike Wallace types, I would resign him for #2 money only

DD, to give you some clue as to where Reggie stacked against other backs in the NFL in 2012, he was well paid. he certainly didn't play at a discount... he was 10th highest cap hit among RBs in 2012.

1 Adrian Peterson at
Running Back
$11,150,000
2 Chris Johnson at
Running Back
$10,050,002
3 Steven Jackson at
Running Back
$8,899,166
4 DeAngelo Williams at
Running Back
$8,700,000
5 Maurice Jones-Drew at
Running Back
$8,061,764
6 Arian Foster at
Running Back
$8,000,000
7 Darren McFadden at
Running Back
$7,812,167
8 Michael Turner at
Running Back
$7,500,000
9 Matt Forte at
Running Back
$6,800,000
10 Reggie Bush at
Running Back
$6,025,000


Bringing him back at $6-7M keeps him in the top 10 and is generous amongst RBs and would be a bargain amongst receivers in the NFL if used to his strengths.

What happens first. Jamarcus Russell gets a starting QB contract or Ryan Leaf gets out of prison?

JefFirescuMyHero | January 25, 2013 at 04:43 PM

Last I heard R.Leaf had a cancerous Brain Tumor and may get early release.

What happens first the Dolphins have a winning season or hell freezes over?

We have one guy on our roster who commands top dollar. One player only---Randy Starks. Jake Long, Shawn Smith, & Brian Hartline need to come to their senses because we're not going to over pay. End of Story!

FA is for finding backups, lineman, and K/P not for game changing playmakers. Theirs a reason people get to FA Wallace is Greed he got offered a contract in pit. Bowe blows and Jennings was expendable. I say we get him for 8-10/4 yrs resign our own guys and try to steal Byrd or else a new K

Ross needs to lower ticket prices to get some fans in the stands.

Last I checked you don't get released from prison for health problems; but that's still a shame. Probly did it himself snorting all those pills with his Peyton posters

fin4life @ 4:35 I totaly agree. That is what I have been trying to get at.

Mark in Toronto..@4:47..Good post. Thanks for the numbers. I think those numbers show all I need to know. I think we are in complete disagreement here. would you be willing to takde on a similar contract to sign Bush if he were coming from another team? Same production just put say a Bengal uniform on him? The circumstances would obviously be different. But if Bush was not a Phin knowing what we know about him. Would you still be for signing him? Or is this a hometowm prejuduce?

Mark in Toronto | January 25, 2013 at 04:43 PM

No disagreement there, it was frustrating watching him in our version of the W.C. O last Yr. but then I thought back to Philbin's time in G.B. and can't recall him using Ryan Grant or any of the RB's in the pass game. It's more of the old 49ers W.C. scheme with the RB's (R.Craig) hitting the gaps quickly or in the screen game with pass catching FB's releasing every so often at the line threatening in the pass game (Koonce was his Rathman) You saw them try this early with Lane before abandoning it. I like you believe Bush still a player in the NFL but does he fit what Philbin wants.

YG should pretend to be Teo gf and tell him to undeclare so we can get him as UDFA! Lol

Look, if they dont overpay, no decent player will play for Miami. They know Miami is a rinky dink franchise with no playoff chance.

Some interesting players may be cap casualties due to excessive price tags and may fit here:

Zach Miller (due $11M against the cap and not a Carroll fave)

Jason Peters due $11M

Santonio Holmes due $12.5M

jermichael Finley due $9M

Chris Johnson due $12M

Elvis Dumervil due $17M

Tamba Hali due $16M

Chris Long due $14M

Lamar Woodley due $13M

David harris $13M

Nnamdi Asamugha $15M

Antonio Cromartie $11M ($1M per kid)

Granted some of these contracts will be re-worked and some totals may even be agreeable to their teams but in each case there's enough reason to be believe a release may happen ...

Bush Is Not Even Better Than Abdul-Jabbar The RB!! Look It Up!!

Reggie Can't Run For 1000 yds If His Life Depended On It!!

Put Down The Madden!! And Look At Real Football!!

Reggie Runs Scared!! And Doesn't Break Tackles!!

Reggie Averaged Less Than 60 Yds A Game!!

And Once He Got Hit In The Jets Game!! The Punk Came Out!! And The Punk Didn't Leave For The Next 10 Games!!

RB's Shouldn't Run Soft!! You Get Hit Every Time!! You Have The Ball!!

Look At All The Great RB's!! They Run Angry!!

Even Barry!! Barry Never Ran Scared!!

It was like the Corvette i saw the other day with a trailer hitch.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | January 25, 2013 at 04:43 PM
===============================================

Great Analogy! When I get done laughing, I'm going to cry!

DD, sorry man, I still see a very valuable player there in Bush - not an every down banger. I see it as adding a 1,600 yard swiss army knife. Whether Philbin thinks a player like that is of any use in his system (like f4l says), I don't know. I know I'd find a use for him. marshall faulk was quite good in that role (although he was a better rb). I mean, like I said, i see a Percy harvin there ... players like the role I envision for Bush are used effectively in the CFL all the time too ... andyway, we will see what happens but I will be down if he left.

ALL HERE OBEY AND SING SONGS OF PRAISE TO MOON BABY!

@ 5:02, what do you mean pretend??

Last I checked you don't get released from prison for health problems; but that's still a shame.

JefFirescuMyHero | January 25, 2013 at 04:58 PM

Over the Yrs. depending on the St. there have been cases of clemency for the terminally ill unless deemed a threat to Society sighting over population and inability for Prison health care. J.Gotti tried to get out on it when dying of Cancer as well but Feds wouldn't hear of it given his high profile status as a leading Crime figure.

Odin, I swear, the guy used it to pull his jet skis around.... oh well, nobody said you had to be smart to make money ...

..As far as Hartline goes. I don't think he will get paid what some have been suggesting. I don't think he could realistically expect the numbers some have come to think it will cost to keep him. I'm thinking a 3 year 11 million would be more then fair. It could break down to a different number each year of the 3 to fit inside of the cap, backload it so the last year is the big payday. Something like 3 million this year, 4.5 the next 2. That is a huge increase, and would pay him in the range of recievers with similar production.

Of course some are grossly overpaid, some are grssly underpaid.. This is right around above average for a number 2 reciever on his second contract.

..Mark. Don't get me wrong. I think Bush still has value, and could contribute here. I am just assuming he isn't going to take much of a pay cut to stay here, nor would the team be ok paying him anywhere close to his salary now to be a spot back(where IMO he is most dangerous)..I am propbably wrong to assume anything. And perhaps it would be smart to debate this once we have an idea of an offer.

DD, sorry man, I still see a very valuable player there in Bush - not an every down banger. I see it as adding a 1,600 yard swiss army knife. Whether Philbin thinks a player like that is of any use in his system (like f4l says), I don't know. I know I'd find a use for him. marshall faulk was quite good in that role

Mark in Toronto | January 25, 2013 at 05:10 PM

Great analogy now lets analyze the facts some say we need to keep addressing OL to help Bush out and I remember Faulk outside of LT O.Pace played behind one of the worst OL in League history considering their contender status. It's a miracle after Warner left that Bulger wan't permanently injured behind that group.

Faulk was the ultimate one cut runner and showed power at the 2nd level. Bush dances at the line and doesn't seem to possess a good eye for what's developing in front of him seems more of a player in space. Physically very different types as well with Miller more in the Faulk mode and as a UM Fan will tell you Miller did plenty of damage in the screen game.

Smith is asking too much, but what choice do the Dolphins have? The secondary is already thin and drafting rookies will take a couple years for them to be solid. The dolphins simply cannot resign to being in perpetual rebuild mode.

Pay Reggie fairly or stink forever.

Even Ronnie Brown Is A Better RB Than Reggie!!

Bush Is Like Tim Tebow!! People Love Them Because They Were Good In College!! But Suck As Pro Athletes!!

8 Seasons 1- 1000yd Season!!

Yeah, Great RB!!

The Only Good Thing You Can Say About Reggie!!

Is Ireland Made A Great Decision, When He Had To Get Rid Of Ricky and Ronnie!! And Managed To Still Keep The RB Position Relevant!!

For All Those That Say Ireland Just Creates Holes And Never Fills Them!!

The RB Position Is Even Better This Year!! Than Last Year!! And Next Season!! It Will Be Even Better!! Without Reggie!!

L.Miller, D.Thomas, J.Gray, M.Thigpen, and A Rookie Acorn Ireland Picks Up!!

Is Better Than Having Reggie!! Dance His Way To 999 Yds!! Cause He Would Be To Scared To Hit The Hole!! And Gain Maybe 200-300 Yds The Hard Way!! Without Counting The 100+ Yds He Loses A Season! By Freezing Behind The Line!!

Yes, Reggie Is So Scared He Freezes Behind The Line!! For A 4-5 Yd Lost!! At Least Half His Carries!! Or 7-8 Times A Game!!

7-8 Times A Game The Offense Is Forced Into 2nd &10 or 3rd & Long!!

But Yeah!! Reggie Is A Priority!! Or A Need!! Because He Is Reggie Bush!!

There's actually good value for CB and WR in 2nd I would be happy with banks/Trufant and if we don't draft Patterson (a giant mistake) there's hunter/Hopkins/Williams I also want Da'rick Rogers take a chance like the bengals did on burfict!

Peace out S Smith, we need CB's that actually catch INT's.

Ireland needs to be risk averse and draft a WR in the first or take a chance on Red flag guys like; honey badger, Rogers and Teo, let philbin straighten em out!

Good Thing Ireland Is Running This Team!! And Not Some Of You Guys!!

Guys if you want a perennial contender you build it through the draft and resigning you're own guys. Not FA homeruns. Just ask buffalo how great being the paper champion is lol. I get its 2nd place only to getting to not one but two AFCCG! Lmao what a trophy room we got in the basement The NY jokes with their one game away trophy and the Bills offseason Heros and 4 empty SB shelves

yeah that 48 mill under cap will get eaten up quickly

The thing that bugs me most about the Long situation is the whole created if he walks.

They say Martin can handle it. Ok, but he hasn't shown me enough to make me want to strut into a new season with all my eggs in that basket.

Then it still creates a hole at Right Tackle.

If we can't get a Home Team friendly incentive deal, I'm starting to think Franchising Long might not be as bad of an idea as I originally thought.

The Franchise Tag would be expensive. But it would allow us to enter the season set at both Tackle spots. More importantly, it allows us to use our picks and resources on more urgent and pressing needs.

Long is alot older than Pouncey, Jerry and Martin(The Future), So we all know he'll need to be replaced sooner(most likely)rather than later. But this just doesn't seem like the best year to do it. We need to address the playmaker/game changers situation more than anything else in my opinion.

At this stage of the rebuild, this has to be **The** Top Priority. If that means Franchising Long for one year(if no incentive laden deal can be worked out), then I say do it.

We'll have to replace Long sooner or later anyways, 2014 would be the better year in my opinion.

Now get me some **Playmakers**

odin maybe martin cant handle it, but we dont know if long can handle it either. not worth the money

My plan is obviously the best! I can turn any cellar dweller to SB in one season (on madden) and I only turn it to rookie vs NE! Lol

Martin stunk at LT. Let Long walk and hope Irescum can replace him? Haha

long stunk also

Smith not worth it. His best value maybe as a free safety.....

Let Smith walk... Good riddance... What good is a big CB thats scared to be physicql and has no hands... Smith is a liability

Maybe I'm being naive but it sure seems to me like if you really wanted to keep some these guys like Bush, Starks, Hartline and even Smith you should have started negotiating at the beginning of the season.

I know their agents are gonna want to test the market and I know Ireland believes that possibly their value will fall when they hit the open market but with the right attitude it can get done ahead of time and would really behoove both sides to do so.

« 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 23 24 »

The comments to this entry are closed.