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Kiper and McShay make draft picks for Dolphins; Salguero says be careful about both selections

We are closing in on that time of year, my acquaintances. Draft microscope time!!!

I call this time draft microscope time because the actual draft is still two months away and the games are in our rear-view mirror. So the actual work for the draft involves workouts and visits and the Combine and interviews -- things that are meant to put a player under the microscope without him, you know, actually playing football.

And to celebrate today, I bring you Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's latest mock drafts.

Both of ESPN's draft "experts" published their mock drafts today and at the No. 12 selection where the Dolphins are picking both went in polar opposite directions.

Kiper had the Dolphins picking Tennessee wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson.

McShay had the Dolphins picking Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro.

Interesting that the Dolphins are apparently so deficient in the passing department (on offense and defense) that the "experts" have them needing both a wide receiver for the offense and safety for the defense in the first round.

That should tell you folks that think the Dolphins are close to competing for the AFC East crown how far this team truly is.

At any rate, let me give you some food for thought here.

Neither projection is wrong at this point. Obviously. But both projections will depend on what the Dolphins do in free agency.

If, for example, the Dolphins go into free agency and sign my newly adopted son Mike Wallace (I added him to the Salguero family that already includes RG3 and Tim Tebow), then it becomes very, very unlikely the team invests a first-round pick on a wide receiver. It doesn't make sense when there are needs at cornerback and defensive end and yes, even safety. That would make the Patterson pick unlikely.

One possibility here would be if the club signs a veteran receiver such as Wallace (yippie!) or Greg Jennings (meh) or Dwayne Bowe (boo!) but allows Brian Hartline to leave via free agency. Then the club's need at WR will remain such that it could require first-round impact.

And if, for example, the Dolphins re-sign pending free agent Chris Clemons, who started every game at one safety spot this year, it is less likely the team will then re-invest in the same position at the level of a first-round pick to take Vaccaro. Remember, I have reported that the team has been talking to safety Reshad Jones about a contract extension so that is an obvious signal one safety spot is locked down.

The Dolphins have too many needs to extend Jones, re-sign Clemons (an expense beyond what rookies make and too expensive to have him sit as a backup) and then use a first-round pick on Vaccaro with the expectation he would start with Jones.

That is the strategic look at the situation as it relates to other moves in free agency that neither Kiper nor McShay are considering.

Now, as to the value of each player, there are some serious questions.

First, both Kiper and McShay have their guys going to the Dolphins at No. 12. But on the ESPN "Big Board" that lists players by grade, Kiper has Patterson listed at No. 15 and Vaccaro at No. 17. Yeah, that's what the Dolphins should do: Draft guys at No. 12 that you have valued several slots lower. In my country, that's called a reach.

Second, let's take a look at the players themselves. Both are solid. Both will be playing in the NFL next year. But neither screams, "I'm going to be a star so watch out!"

Vaccaro is said to be a bigtime playmaker. The Dolphins secondary needs this badly because taking the football away or making plays that get the defense off the field is something the Dolphins need more of. But I look at Vaccaro's stats and he had two interceptions last season. He had no forced fumbles. And he had two passes defensed, not counting the bowl game. And he played on a defense that gave up 50 points to Baylor, 63 points to Oklahoma, and 48 points to West Virginia.

I have not watched the guy on tape, but his statistics don't exactly suggest he's the next Ed Reed.

Patterson?

He looks the part. He's 6-3 and 205 pounds. He's billed as fast. And he's got the overall stats. He caught 46 passes for 778 yards and a 16.9 average with five touchdowns last season. It was his only season at Tennessee.

But dig deeper into that last paragraph.

I would be concerned Patterson spent his first two years at a JUCO and then transferred to Tennesee. Why? What's the story on him not getting in to a major college coming out of high school? Why is he jumping to the draft after only one season?

Whatever the answers, the bottom line is Patterson has limited experience against top flight college talent. So that makes me a bit uneasy.

Then there is this: A closer look at Patterson's impressive stats reveals some issues.

Of his 46 catches, Patterson feasted against lesser opponents but was a much more average player against better opponents. He caught only 16 passes against ranked AP teams and his average was only 11.4 yards per catch against those teams -- five yards less than his overall average.

Flag.

Against the SEC's two best teams -- Georgia and Alabama -- Patterson basically disappeared. He caught two passes for 31 yards against the Bulldogs. He caught one pass for 25 yards against the Crimson Tide.

Flag.

Meanwhile, he padded his stats with nine catches for 219 yards against Troy. It was the only game all season he went over 100 receiving yards.

That doesn't mean the kid won't play big in big games. That doesn't mean he's not gifted. That doesn't mean he's not a first-round pick.

But it does mean he requires a lot, much, tons of study to make sure he's worthy of a No. 12 pick. That is a big investment. And he's not exactly screaming that he's the next Randy Moss.

Comments

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If we draft vaccarro we must make him a corner . He has the skills from what I hear

Good article. The knocks on Patterson sound similar to the ones on Marshall when he was here. It is only Feb though, their mocks will change a bunch. S/WR/TE/OL all valid 1st round picks.

Though I don't think the Dolphins are as far out of contention as you think. They are a middle of the pack young team and honestly they were in the playoff hunt this year. Might have even made it if not for some kicking issues in early season games. With the talent they should gain from the amount of picks and cap space. It isn't a stretch to think they will be a serious playoff contender. Can they knock out the Pats for the division, idk Pats are pretty good.

Armando,

First of all I totally agree about dangling Odrick as tradebait. But totally forget about anything less than a 2nd rd'er. His low-ass contract itsrlf makes him more valuable than that. Plus I believe Odrick is a player on the rise. Maybe not a sure fire pro bowler, but will be a very good player in this league barring serious injury.

Secondly, Im foregoing even trying to pick a 1st rd pick for us until fa is done. However, if we're able to get a "backend" 1st rd pick for Odrick from a team like SF or Denver as you suggested. That would be 2 1st rd picks and a possibility to become a very legit playoff team concluding the 2013 regular season.

As Safeties go I like that crazy kd from FL, Elam. Short but stocky, he gets there real fast and hits hard as hell.

CommonSense,

IMO, the Fins are still at least 2 players away from being a legit "middle of the pack" team. 7-9 indicates your not quite "middle of the pack".

Middle of the pack is anywhere between 9-7 to 8-8. Our 7-9 record suggest we're 1-2 players from that.

Truth is there are about 5 five players playing five different positions that would make sense for use on the #1 pick. These two are worthy options (best at their positions in the country and fill huge needs). Could also go (OT, TE, DE, OLB. MLB would also be nice but I think that waits a year.)

You're right though, all depends on what we do in free agency.

P.S. I think you may be selling Vaccaro a little short in saying he doesn't ahve star potential.

NFL Draft Basics

Compensatory Draft Selections

Based on the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement:
A team is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks if it is determined that they lost more or better players than they were able to acquire during the previous year's free agency period. The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of compensatory free agents (maximum of four).

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula that was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a team is covered by this formula.

Based on this vague formula ... they should get something but how much is uncertain.

Armando...

way to get behond the flash and dash....

Let's hope Ireland...or somebody on his staff can figure this stuff out....

:-l

impressed face....

Kenny Vaccaro is a great fit next to Reshad Jones. Only safety I think is worth getting rid of Chris Clemons for.

One predictor of 2013 Compensatory picks ...

Miami
The Miami Dolphins lost Chad Henne and will receive a 6th round pick
The Miami Dolpnins lost Will Allen and will receive a 7th round pick
The Miami Dolphins lost Kendall Langford who is cancelled out by Richard Marshall

Mark...

imo...it seems less like a PREDICTOR....and more like a (smoking gun)hindsight for how bad Ireland sucks @ drafting....

but thats just me....

And what exactly does one do with 6th and 7th Round picks?

Actually, as far as the safety play, it should get better by Jones progressing even more in 2013 alone.

Clemons "hit great strides" in 2012. Never thought I would ever say this about a player becoming the barest minimal of average. But, if Jones can becomes a 6-7 pick guy in 2013, it will more than make up for any remaining deficiencies in Clemons.

Exactly why I dont see making a #1 pick at safety as prudent. Only if Clemons was easily our best safety. Then making our safety #1 pick priority would truly justify the action. IMO, my eyes did not see this in 2012.

If history is any indication, Ireland will use the first round pick on a lineman. They don't need one? They didn't need Odrick when they picked him.

Nobody said pick a S in the first R. Second R.

I's rather have the Kid from FIU at safety around rd 4

FIU?

Pluuueeesee...

ANYONE is better then Ireland picking!!

You Guys from here have to plant your feet firmly on this Earth. Otherwise, you'll be disappointed.

The Dolphins need about 10 new good starters to really compete. At Irelands pace that should be about 20 years.

Who cares about yogurt news although I will admit I love yogurt

Better, Saldiguera.

Draft Matt Barkley.

A Laxative, a laxative.

It may take these clowns more then 20 years to get a franchise QB.

Oscar, you use those picks to line the bird's cage.

Kris, Henne was a definite miss no doubt ... nothing to defend there.

YG, I disagree, but I get your point. Carpenter makes two kicks and there is your 9-7. Either way there are positions that need upgrading to realistically contend.

Also, the Dolphins will only go as far as Tannehill progresses. Lets hope that goes well and Ireland/Philbin get him some more help.

Heck, Irescums 1st rd picks could line the birdcage.

"I would be concerned Patterson spent his first two years at a JUCO and then transferred to Tennesee. Why? What's the story on him not getting in to a major college coming out of high school? Why is he jumping to the draft after only one season?"

How about some folk just develop a little later in life JA...

I agree with Armando they should go get Wallace resign Hartline, and then another vet receiver like Jennings would be nice and just go for a defensive player on defense like another pass rusher or an impact Safety or cornerback perhaps, we really have to see how other teams beat the Patriots and what they do is actually cover Wes Welker with man coverage and rush Tom Brady, so maybe the number one pick should be on the defensive side.

The WRs in the draft are underwhelming to say the least. Spending a 1st round pick on a wr this year would be stupid. Jeff Ireland will probably spend the first round pick on a WR.

What I would like is to fill the void at WR through free agency, add someone from the third round as a project and spend your high picks on a CB/DE/TE. We can survive another season with Clemons, he's not a play maker but he isn't a liability either.

CommonSense,

By your 2:40PM reply, it could also be argued that maybe even Carpenter himself is that 1 to player away that I argue we're from to being a "solid" middle of the pack(9-7 to 8-8) team.

You did admit in your opinion it cost us 9-7. Maybe we're a fg kicker away right?

"WTH is a Wombat?"

Posted by: oscar canosa

A Wombat is the name for a person that lives in Vermont according to a buddy of mine. I like to call them 'Woodchucks'.

YG, hard to say. He has played well in previous years. Was he on a bad streak? Will it be a trend? I know a kicker won't make every kick, but those two were both very makeable and directly impacted the games outcome. Though he does get paid decent and Kaeding(spelling?) is very good too.

Honestly, I think if you pick up a good CB and safety then the defense is very solid. Those upgrades alone make a big difference imo.

Forget Patterson at No. 12.

Unless he wins some hearts by tearing it up at the combine, he'll slide........a long way.

He's too inexperienced, disappeared against ranked teams and made his living against Div. II schools!

Just say no!

(Of course, I said these same things about Tannehill @ 12)

We wouldn't suck right now if 1/2 our draft picks (yes, that is how the best teams build) in the past 4 years weren't working in the fast food industry right now. Free agency needs to be where you pick up a guy or 2 and compliment your core team. Look at us, we need to build with free agency. Lets not say we have to win next year or the year after. Lets draft well so our core is strong (like the Packers, Steelers and 49ers) and then be the dominate team in the AFC East.

And my wife didn't hit me with a gold club!

CommonSense,

It could also be greatly argued that if our offense was better capable of scoring tds, it never would have been in the hands of Carpenter to decide whether the team was 9-7 or 7-9 in 2012.

So there are many twist to officially declaring us legit "middle of the pack" team. The 2012 final record(7-9) declares us "just short" of being this.

and by the way, the Pat White draft pick should keep Parcells out of the HOF forever. Thanks Bill for building the Dolphins for a game in 1985.

Take the guy that will be an all pro regardless of position. Too many teams bomb in round one choosing on need.

Pat White was Ireland's pick not Parcells.

We need scary tough LB's. Dansby is getting old, and Kevin Burnett is getting old. And quite frankly they dont scare anyone around the league.

Superbowl teams, have some scary LB's (Suggs,Lewis,Willis,Bowe, 2012 Giants LB's)

CommonSense,

Carpenter's 2012 season reverts right back to the Sparano regime and our longterm struggle to score tds. There are only so many "fistpumps" in one kicker's leg.

Exactly why I expect the Fins to bring in a kicker in 2013 to compete with Carpenter for the spot. Carpenter's leg just may be "fistpumped out".

Bring in for a FA check up:

1)Revis
2)Winslow

You really are a slave to the stats, are you aware of that Armando?

your first problem is that you actually read what Mcshay and kiper have to say

And also, these aren't polar opposite picks. There one in the same really. They're both big play players who will turn around games, or at least that's how they're looked at. The pick is the same really, just different positions.

I think Miami takes the best available pass rushing DE on the board.

That makes the most sense to me instead of reaching on the players you mentioned.

It's a need that has to be filled this year and they'll be taking them off of the board like hotcakes come the draft. So, Ireland won't want to be left out in the cold. Besides a couple of those teams in front of us will be reaching for a QB instead of taking the best available player.

I'd pick Vaccarro but what do I know...Ireland is the expert at picking acorns.

Ryan,

"Polar opposite" because the polar opposite of to run is to walk. The polar opposite of to "defend is to offend".

Just like the polar opposite of to play offense is to play defense. An offensive player is the "polar opposite" of a defensive player.

"Dummy down" dude and maybe someday you'll actually have room in your dome to learn something. Cant teach a man who knows everything anything.

Tracy, woudl be aweosme if there was a run on QBs ahead of us. Enough to knock jarvis jones down to us?

Hey Get Sense,

Bill Parcells is in the room and says to Jeff Ireland, "no you go ahead and take Pat White, even though I am the head of football operations and your boss it's ok". He left New England because he didn't have total control of the draft, you think that pick is Ireland's fault. . . Parcells set Miami back years. He was great back when Cheers was on TV and it became a passing league.

There are no Julio Jones's or Justin Blackmon's in this years draft so don't reach for Patterson @ #12.

We got burned again last year at the CB & SS position time and time again...we need to shore up our porous secondary and add WR talent via FA.

...Whoever the pick is my thinking is that one..We cannot trade down. Stay put. 2, take a player that is either a pass rusher, a saftey, corner or WR.

Now, the evaluation process is far from over. I don't think there is a reciever out there in the first round that we can't get in round 2, so IMO it cancels out reciever.

Pass rushers, you can never have to many. Look at the Giants. Not the production. But how they had a stockpile of them. Now, they are losing a few, but are still fine because the GM is smart enough to know that 1 even 2 guys isn't enough. Injuries, contracts, age all have played a factor. Now we don't know if Vernon can be the complimentary guy. He would have probably been a first round pick if he has stayed in school, so we got goood value. This value means nothing if he can't contribute. Also. Some will look at our sack totals and say we were pretty good. We were, and I agree. The problem is that we are one Cam Wake injury from being in a bind. Pass rusher may not be the most pressing need, but looking at the guys in this draft, it may come down to this position being the BPA when we choose.

Corner is a huge concern as well. I offered a list of URFA's last week that all played +550 snaps and had positive grades. None were real big name guys but all of them outperformed the more well known FA's at the position. IMO, free agency is where we should look to find help here, not the first 2 rounds.

As far as saftey goes. I am not a fan of Clemons. having too much time on my hands I have watched a lot of the game film available from NFL. Com. We all know how he was guilty of bad angles at times, wasn't a huge playmaker. But what jumps out is just how many times Rashad Jones has to cover for his mistakes. It seems like at least 2-3 times a game Clemons would be out of position. So many times you had corners looking at him with arms in the air as to say"Where were you on that one" I don't know this as fact, just an observation. Saftey becomes an interesting choice. But I think if Ireland hits a home run here. It instantly makes the whole secondary better, as we have playmakers on the back end. Something this team has not had in how long?

Tracy474,

Its nearly "reaching" for any player in this draft picking 1st rd. There isnt one player in this entire draft that you can "truly" look at and say that guy will be a "definite pro bowler" in his rookie year.

There are some very good players, but none that you can say for a definite fact will be a game changer in year one. I see not one player in this draft anyone can single out and say:

"This guy will indisputably be great player in 2013."

Its even tough to say that any of these guys will be pro bowlers in 2013, except for maybe Luke Joekel and he's a LT. LOL...

YG you are really a dum@ss, do you know that? The polar oppossite of run is walk? Defend is offend? Do you even know what the fricking words mean? I guess instead of the polar opposite of talking being quiet, it is talking louder. HAHAHA your a dikwad. Great stuff as you try to insult someone else. I need to start a "the dumb shyt YG says" comment spot. Just so everyone is totally aware of how incompetent you really are.
YG is to intellegence as Armando is to being a GM.

I believe this draft class is NOT the one to go "Position hunting" in the first round in. This draft class SCREAMS at teams (Other then those Quarterback Shopping) to draft the highest rated, best available talent on the board when you draft @#12...

If that is a Safety... Draft him, if it is an Offensive Guard.... Draft HIM... The first round of this draft simply does not have the star caliber players to walk into and search for a particular position to draft... Once you get into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds... the talent base gets very equal.. Drafting a WR is just as easy as drafting a OT.And you don't do any reaching while at it... Go position shopping in round one of 2013's draft and your going to reach outside the top 5 players.....

Taking any WR at 12 this year will be a ginormous reach.

Sign the free agent WR and then draft another in round 2. This is a deep WR class, just not any top tier prospects. The talent and value will there round 2.

Get the BPA at 12, hopefully one of the DE prospects!

(PS: If Odrick gets put on the trade block, I'll offer two pieces of Bazooka Joe Bubble Gum and a box of Cracker Jacks too.)

Seriously, I don't see anybody giving up a late FIRST or even a 2nd rounder for Odrick, thats just crazy talk Mando. I don't even see an early 3rd. Maybe not even a late 3rd.

Odrick's pay for the next two seasons is favorable, but thats hardly enough to get the kind of picks Mando was mentioning. Odrick just hasn't done enough to bring us a premium pick.

Odrick is a key piece of this defense and it makes no sense to upset the apple cart and start messing with chemistry.

Remember when Sparano could not stop tinkering with the O-Line and we never had a winning season?

Odrick is cheap and rarely makes mistakes...letting him walk so Ireland can pick another acorn in the 2nd round makes no sense. We need STARTERS with experience on our D-Line, not pups that are still weening themselves from college life.

uhh.......

Jarvis Jones is projected a 3-4 olb pass rusher. Remember, we transitioned to the 4-3. 6'3 241 isnt quite going to get as a 4-3 DE. He'll be eaten alive in the run game.

Jarvis Jones is a better symetrical fit in the 3-4 defense as a pass rushing olb. Cam Wake is 6'3 258 in comparison.

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