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Kiper and McShay make draft picks for Dolphins; Salguero says be careful about both selections

We are closing in on that time of year, my acquaintances. Draft microscope time!!!

I call this time draft microscope time because the actual draft is still two months away and the games are in our rear-view mirror. So the actual work for the draft involves workouts and visits and the Combine and interviews -- things that are meant to put a player under the microscope without him, you know, actually playing football.

And to celebrate today, I bring you Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's latest mock drafts.

Both of ESPN's draft "experts" published their mock drafts today and at the No. 12 selection where the Dolphins are picking both went in polar opposite directions.

Kiper had the Dolphins picking Tennessee wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson.

McShay had the Dolphins picking Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro.

Interesting that the Dolphins are apparently so deficient in the passing department (on offense and defense) that the "experts" have them needing both a wide receiver for the offense and safety for the defense in the first round.

That should tell you folks that think the Dolphins are close to competing for the AFC East crown how far this team truly is.

At any rate, let me give you some food for thought here.

Neither projection is wrong at this point. Obviously. But both projections will depend on what the Dolphins do in free agency.

If, for example, the Dolphins go into free agency and sign my newly adopted son Mike Wallace (I added him to the Salguero family that already includes RG3 and Tim Tebow), then it becomes very, very unlikely the team invests a first-round pick on a wide receiver. It doesn't make sense when there are needs at cornerback and defensive end and yes, even safety. That would make the Patterson pick unlikely.

One possibility here would be if the club signs a veteran receiver such as Wallace (yippie!) or Greg Jennings (meh) or Dwayne Bowe (boo!) but allows Brian Hartline to leave via free agency. Then the club's need at WR will remain such that it could require first-round impact.

And if, for example, the Dolphins re-sign pending free agent Chris Clemons, who started every game at one safety spot this year, it is less likely the team will then re-invest in the same position at the level of a first-round pick to take Vaccaro. Remember, I have reported that the team has been talking to safety Reshad Jones about a contract extension so that is an obvious signal one safety spot is locked down.

The Dolphins have too many needs to extend Jones, re-sign Clemons (an expense beyond what rookies make and too expensive to have him sit as a backup) and then use a first-round pick on Vaccaro with the expectation he would start with Jones.

That is the strategic look at the situation as it relates to other moves in free agency that neither Kiper nor McShay are considering.

Now, as to the value of each player, there are some serious questions.

First, both Kiper and McShay have their guys going to the Dolphins at No. 12. But on the ESPN "Big Board" that lists players by grade, Kiper has Patterson listed at No. 15 and Vaccaro at No. 17. Yeah, that's what the Dolphins should do: Draft guys at No. 12 that you have valued several slots lower. In my country, that's called a reach.

Second, let's take a look at the players themselves. Both are solid. Both will be playing in the NFL next year. But neither screams, "I'm going to be a star so watch out!"

Vaccaro is said to be a bigtime playmaker. The Dolphins secondary needs this badly because taking the football away or making plays that get the defense off the field is something the Dolphins need more of. But I look at Vaccaro's stats and he had two interceptions last season. He had no forced fumbles. And he had two passes defensed, not counting the bowl game. And he played on a defense that gave up 50 points to Baylor, 63 points to Oklahoma, and 48 points to West Virginia.

I have not watched the guy on tape, but his statistics don't exactly suggest he's the next Ed Reed.

Patterson?

He looks the part. He's 6-3 and 205 pounds. He's billed as fast. And he's got the overall stats. He caught 46 passes for 778 yards and a 16.9 average with five touchdowns last season. It was his only season at Tennessee.

But dig deeper into that last paragraph.

I would be concerned Patterson spent his first two years at a JUCO and then transferred to Tennesee. Why? What's the story on him not getting in to a major college coming out of high school? Why is he jumping to the draft after only one season?

Whatever the answers, the bottom line is Patterson has limited experience against top flight college talent. So that makes me a bit uneasy.

Then there is this: A closer look at Patterson's impressive stats reveals some issues.

Of his 46 catches, Patterson feasted against lesser opponents but was a much more average player against better opponents. He caught only 16 passes against ranked AP teams and his average was only 11.4 yards per catch against those teams -- five yards less than his overall average.

Flag.

Against the SEC's two best teams -- Georgia and Alabama -- Patterson basically disappeared. He caught two passes for 31 yards against the Bulldogs. He caught one pass for 25 yards against the Crimson Tide.

Flag.

Meanwhile, he padded his stats with nine catches for 219 yards against Troy. It was the only game all season he went over 100 receiving yards.

That doesn't mean the kid won't play big in big games. That doesn't mean he's not gifted. That doesn't mean he's not a first-round pick.

But it does mean he requires a lot, much, tons of study to make sure he's worthy of a No. 12 pick. That is a big investment. And he's not exactly screaming that he's the next Randy Moss.

Comments

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LOL, I don't think you left room for signing our draft picks in that scenario but I like where you started.

YG,

Forget all the Troll Talk.

Just tell us again how Miller isn't worth drafting or having on your team.

(And I thought Ireland's player evaluation skills were lacking..........LOL!)

ODDI-ASSI,

"I thought it was bad when you railed on Hartline after he had 74 catches for over 12oo yards."

Posted by: odinseye | February 07, 2013 at 04:27 PM

"OVER 1,2OO YDS, REALLY?" ROTFLMAO...............

TRY 1,083YDS, LONG WAYS FROM "OVER 1,200YDS" ISNT IT IDIOT? LOL....

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/9372

Craig do you see my post at 4:50? Completely useless, you would waste your time reading it. Fourteen words,,,,,,,,,skkkkkkkkkkkkIP!

PS I'm just having fun but it's true ;)


Just ignore the shorties! ;)

Posted by: Phins78 | February 07, 2013 at 04:48 PM

Perhaps you haven't noticed but, we already ignore you, Tiny.

ODDI-ASSI,

POST MY POST WHERE I SAID THAT MILLER "ISNT WORTH DRAFTING" OR "HAVING ON YOUR TEAM".

YOU CANT CAN YOU? LOL....

QUESTION: WHY DO THE DUMBEST POSTERS ON THE BLOG ALWAYS CHOOSE TO HAVE INTERNET FIGHTS? ROTFLMAO.............

78,

I actually did. I mentioned the 3 must haves. Jennings/Wallace, Finley/Keller, Cason.

Jennings & Keller will be cheaper than Wallace & Finley so it might be less than $25 mil to sign them all. maybe $20 & we have $46 free.

Enough to sign the picks, Hartline, Mcdaniels & possibly Bush or Long to a discount. Only to a discount.

IF ONLY WINNING THE POWERBALL JACKPOT WERE AS EASY AS DISPUTING IDIOTS HERE SOME OF US WOULD BE MEGA BILLIONAIRES BY NOW. ROTFLMAO................

ODDI-ASSI SAYS HARTLINE HAD OVER "1,200 YDS RECIEVING".

THE TRUTH REVEALS ONLY "1,086 YDS RECIEVING". CAUGHT IN A LIE TO MAKE A DULL POINT.

NO MATTER HOW MANY RECIEVING YDS A WR HAS, 1 TD IS A PENCIL GREATLY IN NEED OF SHARPENING. YES, IT STILL WRITES, BUT ITS PURE HELL ON THE KNUCKLES! LOL....

MORE OF ODDI-ASSI PULLING S H I T FROM HIS ODDI-ASSI. LOL....

A 6'3 210 pounds WR whos fast is what Im sold on. Draft Patterson at 12. We need a a big fast WR and he did play in the the SEC

I'd rather fill the biggest needs in FA with established vets & proven players & use the draft to bring in the best young available talent to shore up the tackle, guards & safeties.

I trust Ireland more to bring in FA's to fill our pressing needs & pray he can find a couple of decent players to fill other voids.

Posted by: LOL | February 07, 2013 at 04:48 PM
-----------------------------------------------

Nice post! Sign a FEW free agents and make it count. Use it to plug some holes. Then go BPA with those 5 picks in the first 3 rounds!

We should be able to sign at least TWO playmakers in free agency and find at least TWO more in the draft. Then fill some holes and add some quality depth!

We should be able to turn the corner this off season.

(Then again, if Ireland reads some of YG's posts and realizes guys like Von Miller, Marino and Moss all suck, who knows......lol)

The WR I know & like is DeAndre Hopkins but with the 12th overall pick that's a reach. Unfortunately this draft doesn't have many big time WR or CB prospects. The two players that I really like in this draft is Dee Milliner & the OT Eric Fisher from Central Michigan. However, not sure if either player is going to be there at 12.

BTW--All this draft talk is WAY premature considering that FA hasn't even started. After the dust settles then hopefully the picture will come more into focus.

Ireland will sit on his hands in free agency and Ross will pocket the money, makes no sense to get hyped up for this year FAs

look at pattersons 5 TD's. They mostly come from end arounds and kick returns.

We dont need a kick returner.

The biggest need is a WR its that simple people... with the first pick Miami will take a WR BOOK IT

You're chances of busting on a 1st rd pick go up exponentially when you draft for "need" instead of "best available". That's not to say the Dolphins should ignore their needs but to draft a WR at 12 when there are none worthy of a top 20 pick seems like bad poker. Lets get some great/good football players on this squad!

So ah, YG..........you're going to knock Miller for only getting a 1/2 sack in the playoffs?
But now you're cutting on Miller because he only had 1/2 a sack in a playoff game?
Posted by: odinseye | February 07, 2013 at 04:27 PM

YEAH, PROVES HE CAN BE GREAT IF YOU HAVE A BIG LEAD AND TEAMS HAVE TO PASS. PLAYOFFS CAN BECOME A DIFFERENT BEAST. LIKE RAY RICE BEAST. 30 CARRIES 133YDS.
THEN THROW IN 331 3TDS AND 0 INTS, VON MILLER = 1/2 SACK. LOL...

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | February 07, 2013 at 04:50 PM
------------------------------------------------------

Too Bad! I wish YG was Denver's GM. Can you imagine getting swindled out of Von Miller by Ireland?

So what are you saying YG, if you're the Broncs GM, you just cut Miller outright or would you try and get a 7th round pick for him?

Give it up YG, in trying to go after Mark, you made yourself look extremely silly!

It's either THAT or you're the only one on the planet that doesn't know Miller is a Phenom. Maybe a mix of both.....lol?

In his first two seasons Miller gets TWO Pro Bowls, named an All-Pro, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year and more. It doesn't stop there though, in his FIRST 30 games, he's racked up 30 sacks.

Very few Rookies come in and light it up like that right off the bat. For an encore, he comes in and improves his sack totals to 18.5.

Having said all that, YG claims he garbage because he had ONE not so spectacular playoff games. Don't bother considering the fact that Peyton Manning is one of the smartest QB's backs to play the game. He's cerebral, has a fairly quick release, knows where to go with the ball and seldom takes many sacks.

So again YG, would you cut Miller outright or try and get a 2015 7th round pick for him......lol?

Deandre Hopkins 6'1 200lbs 82 rec 1405 yds 18 tds 17.1 ypc.

I also suggest you go this website and read his split stats. down and distance...etc...

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/501689/deandre-hopkins

You'll find he's "money" in money situations. If you "reached" for a wr like this @ #12 at least it has great chance to pay great dividends.

Dont believe me, go read his "split stats" for yourself. Im not advocatig him at #12, but if you did, it could very well pay off.

ODDI-ASSI,

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR, PLEASE STFU, YOU GET DUMBER WITH EACH POST. LOL....

As to your first post on trading Odrick that looks like was met with just a little sarcasm Armando, It seems like it would make more sense to trade Dansby , let Starks go, move Odrick inside and add a tackling machine middle l-backer. You know like that weirdo Teo. Trading Dansby is also unlikely though because nobody is gonna eat that salary.

As to the second post on the mocks, theres no telling where those guys will be on the board by the time the draft gets here.

It seems to me like it would behoove us to fill holes in free agency and if we hit on some ringers in the draft it would be gravy.

I'm sure the Dolphins have a plan of attack on which free agents thay want to keep and which ones they want go after from other teams. Some inside info on that would greatly help us Monday morning GMs figure out who we want to draft. Get to work on that will ya!

"OVER 1,2OO YDS, REALLY?" ROTFLMAO...............
TRY 1,083YDS, LONG WAYS FROM "OVER 1,200YDS" ISNT IT IDIOT? LOL....

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/9372

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | February 07, 2013 at 04:54 PM

Well YG, if a typo makes me an idiot, your player evaluation skills in regards to Von Miller makes you a straight up tard.

Bhwaaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

Dolphin Rick,

WTH? Trade Dansby? Who the hell would take his contract based on his output at that pay?

ABSOLUTELY NOBODY......................................

you can build an offense through free agency, look at Denver. you need to build a defense through the draft, look at Philadelphia and New Orleans, spent lots of money on D and were terrible.

ODDI-ASSI,

YOU TOOK THE TIME TO COMPLETELY TYPE "OVER". THEN "1200".

THAT ISNT A TYPO, THATS COMPLETELY SNATCHING SOMETHING FROM YOUR VERY OWN "ODDI-ASSI". ROTFLMAO.........

YOU ATTEMPTED TO OUTRIGHT "LIE" HOPING NOONE IS AS DUMB AS YOU AND NOT TO RESEARCH THAT NUMBER. AGAIN... ROTFLMAO............................ LOL

YG4E,

Trading Dansby is also unlikely though because nobody is gonna eat that salary.

I guess you didn't see the above sentence in my post?

It is just wishful thinking ok.

YG vs odin. Classic.

wally fin,

Build an offense thru fa? Denver only needed a qb, not an offense. You can get a few final pieces via fa, not an offense itself.

Do you realize how expensive it would be to build an entire offense thru fa? Not to mention even some of them can go bust and salary cap wouldnt allow you to keep it together.

Dolphan Rick,

Thx, I missed it. LOL...

odins a pig.

ODDI-ASSI,

A TYPO IS AN UNINTENTIONAL "MISPELLING". COMPLETELY ENTERING "OVER 1200" ISNT AN UNINTENTIONAL MISPELLING.

YOU SPELLED "OVER 1200" ABSOLUTELY CORRECT! ROTFLAMO.........

Here we go again another big nor'easter on the way boy oh boy

I'm no scout or even a coach for that matter but I'm not getting the warm and fuzzies about Patterson or Allen at #12.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Milliner if he's there depending what we do with our cb situation.

If we were to by some miracle land Mike Wallace in free agency Tavon Austin would be a good fit if he fell to the 2nd rd.

We can land mike Wallace just get the check book ready

Ireland cant build thru the draft so FA is really our only viable option.

Oscar have you ever seen snow

I think we sign 3 offensive weapons thru free agency

ODDI-ASSI,

YOU TOOK THE TIME TO COMPLETELY TYPE "OVER". THEN "1200".

THAT ISNT A TYPO,

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | February 07, 2013 at 05:40 PM
---------------

Much like you are about Miller, WRONG AGAIN - ROTFLMAO!

Quit trying to make something out of nothing. A Lie? ROTFLMAO!

The sentence was supposed to read: '.....OVER 1000 yards....."

Boy are you reaching - lol.

(BTW - Hows your evaluations on Miller going? THAT definitely wasn't a typo(snicker, snick).

A run away goat in Brooklyn how funny is that

A goat herder from Africa working as a parking lot attendant caught the goat safe and sound

Dolfan Rick,

The reason selecting Dee Milliner #12 scares so much is because Patrick Peterson only had 2 picks his rookie year. 7 last season. he was a 5th overall pick.

Milliner isnt even rated close to Peterson coming out. Now, if he were even remotely compared to Peterson, then I would say yes to him at #12. Noone's uttered a single word of Dee Milliner being remotely close to a Patrick Peterson.

We have far greater needs than to draft a corner at #12 that may max out as only "above average" at the position. This seems to be draft of "none great cb's", its more like "best available". Huge difference.

CBs are usually not Game changers. We need Game Changers.

A run away goat in Brooklyn how funny is that

Posted by: Marc from nj | February 07, 2013 at 05:54 PM

PLEASE DONT MAKE FUN OF ODDI-ASSI'S MOTHER. LOL...

YG4E,

Well we better go big in free agency at cb as well because we suck at the position. I might have missed it, what are some of your suggestions at 12?

Marcus Thigpen is a Game Changer. We have ko returner. Need a great punt returner.

If you could trade Tanny without losing too much I'd do that too.

Cam Wake is a Game Changer, but at his position, they usually come in pairs. Need another one of those(not named Vernon).

ALoco,


If you love shoveling snow you are in for a blast this weekend!!!

Isn't this the same coach and GM that said (before last yers draft) we can get WR's later in the draft. I find nothing dumber than taking a WR in the first round. The talent at that postion is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, where we have two picks each round.

Ryan Tannehill is a Game Changer, but he needs a lot of help around him, WRs, TEs, RBs.

We as a team will be better than ever after this offseason this will be huge

Frank, the GM changes his mind (daily) after every mistake he makes.

I have to dig out my snowblower it's buried

Dolfan Rick,

If by miracle, Bjorn Woerner slipped, I would definitely snatch him up at #12. He seems to be a prototypical fit as a 4-3 DE.

Some say the Georgia guy, but he's more of a 3-4 olb at only 241 lbs. In no way do I see us drafting a 241 lb guy to play DE in a 4-3 defense. I would be shocked to see it happen.

At #12, its in the very least, a mild reach no matter who we select. Especially at our need positions. Depending on what we're able to accomplish in fa, and who could possibly fall, may be a great decider in what to do at #12.

I would be happy to trade back and pick up an extra 2nd rd pick, if Bjorn Woerner didnt fall. If Woerner slipped to #9 I would investigate what it would take to move up.

Therefore, based on our need for Gamechangers, with the #12 pick the Miami Dolphins select...a WR, TE,RB.

Problem with Jarvis Jones as a 241 lb DE is he can be easily bloked by 260lb nfl te's. He'll have a very tough time on the edge in the run game at that weight.

At only 241 lbs, I dot see him "bull rushing" very many 300 lb plus, olinemen either. Wake's 260 lbs.

Ryan Tannehill is a Game Changer, but he needs a lot of help around him, WRs, TEs, RBs.

Posted by: oscar canosa | February 07, 2013 at 06:13 PM

You said the exact same bs about Henne.

Henne always sukked Big Dikkk. I guess you remember.

oscar,

We could trade back and still draft one of the top 2 TE's, or get DeAndre Hopkins. While still picking up an extra 2nd rd pick. Then we would have 3 2nd rd picks and perhaps use on on corner or pass rush.

This is why trading back can be appealing too.

I prefer to trade up, YG, a la RG3. We want only the Best of the very Best here with NO mistakes(can't afford them).

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