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Kiper and McShay make draft picks for Dolphins; Salguero says be careful about both selections

We are closing in on that time of year, my acquaintances. Draft microscope time!!!

I call this time draft microscope time because the actual draft is still two months away and the games are in our rear-view mirror. So the actual work for the draft involves workouts and visits and the Combine and interviews -- things that are meant to put a player under the microscope without him, you know, actually playing football.

And to celebrate today, I bring you Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's latest mock drafts.

Both of ESPN's draft "experts" published their mock drafts today and at the No. 12 selection where the Dolphins are picking both went in polar opposite directions.

Kiper had the Dolphins picking Tennessee wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson.

McShay had the Dolphins picking Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro.

Interesting that the Dolphins are apparently so deficient in the passing department (on offense and defense) that the "experts" have them needing both a wide receiver for the offense and safety for the defense in the first round.

That should tell you folks that think the Dolphins are close to competing for the AFC East crown how far this team truly is.

At any rate, let me give you some food for thought here.

Neither projection is wrong at this point. Obviously. But both projections will depend on what the Dolphins do in free agency.

If, for example, the Dolphins go into free agency and sign my newly adopted son Mike Wallace (I added him to the Salguero family that already includes RG3 and Tim Tebow), then it becomes very, very unlikely the team invests a first-round pick on a wide receiver. It doesn't make sense when there are needs at cornerback and defensive end and yes, even safety. That would make the Patterson pick unlikely.

One possibility here would be if the club signs a veteran receiver such as Wallace (yippie!) or Greg Jennings (meh) or Dwayne Bowe (boo!) but allows Brian Hartline to leave via free agency. Then the club's need at WR will remain such that it could require first-round impact.

And if, for example, the Dolphins re-sign pending free agent Chris Clemons, who started every game at one safety spot this year, it is less likely the team will then re-invest in the same position at the level of a first-round pick to take Vaccaro. Remember, I have reported that the team has been talking to safety Reshad Jones about a contract extension so that is an obvious signal one safety spot is locked down.

The Dolphins have too many needs to extend Jones, re-sign Clemons (an expense beyond what rookies make and too expensive to have him sit as a backup) and then use a first-round pick on Vaccaro with the expectation he would start with Jones.

That is the strategic look at the situation as it relates to other moves in free agency that neither Kiper nor McShay are considering.

Now, as to the value of each player, there are some serious questions.

First, both Kiper and McShay have their guys going to the Dolphins at No. 12. But on the ESPN "Big Board" that lists players by grade, Kiper has Patterson listed at No. 15 and Vaccaro at No. 17. Yeah, that's what the Dolphins should do: Draft guys at No. 12 that you have valued several slots lower. In my country, that's called a reach.

Second, let's take a look at the players themselves. Both are solid. Both will be playing in the NFL next year. But neither screams, "I'm going to be a star so watch out!"

Vaccaro is said to be a bigtime playmaker. The Dolphins secondary needs this badly because taking the football away or making plays that get the defense off the field is something the Dolphins need more of. But I look at Vaccaro's stats and he had two interceptions last season. He had no forced fumbles. And he had two passes defensed, not counting the bowl game. And he played on a defense that gave up 50 points to Baylor, 63 points to Oklahoma, and 48 points to West Virginia.

I have not watched the guy on tape, but his statistics don't exactly suggest he's the next Ed Reed.

Patterson?

He looks the part. He's 6-3 and 205 pounds. He's billed as fast. And he's got the overall stats. He caught 46 passes for 778 yards and a 16.9 average with five touchdowns last season. It was his only season at Tennessee.

But dig deeper into that last paragraph.

I would be concerned Patterson spent his first two years at a JUCO and then transferred to Tennesee. Why? What's the story on him not getting in to a major college coming out of high school? Why is he jumping to the draft after only one season?

Whatever the answers, the bottom line is Patterson has limited experience against top flight college talent. So that makes me a bit uneasy.

Then there is this: A closer look at Patterson's impressive stats reveals some issues.

Of his 46 catches, Patterson feasted against lesser opponents but was a much more average player against better opponents. He caught only 16 passes against ranked AP teams and his average was only 11.4 yards per catch against those teams -- five yards less than his overall average.

Flag.

Against the SEC's two best teams -- Georgia and Alabama -- Patterson basically disappeared. He caught two passes for 31 yards against the Bulldogs. He caught one pass for 25 yards against the Crimson Tide.

Flag.

Meanwhile, he padded his stats with nine catches for 219 yards against Troy. It was the only game all season he went over 100 receiving yards.

That doesn't mean the kid won't play big in big games. That doesn't mean he's not gifted. That doesn't mean he's not a first-round pick.

But it does mean he requires a lot, much, tons of study to make sure he's worthy of a No. 12 pick. That is a big investment. And he's not exactly screaming that he's the next Randy Moss.

Comments

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oscar, with all due respect you seem very insecure and defensive. But if you keep telling yourself how smart you are .........maybe you'll convince yourself.

From The Last Blog.

Odrick Is To Cheap To Trade. And A 3-4 DE Is A 4-3 DT. Plus, We Still Need To Sign Starks. Again!! THE FINS D-LINE IS THE TEAMS STRENGTH!!

We Need To See How Free Agency Plays Out!!

Down Periscope. Don't Put The Wagon Before The Horse!

Agreed, On Wallace! He Is The Best Free Agent Out There!! And Only 1 Veteran Wr! The Fins should Fix The WR Position Mostly Thru The Draft! 2 Second Round Picks!

Allegedly! T-Sizzle Is Already Throwing Passes To Bess And Matthews! Or The Only 2 Wr's On The Team!

YG....... WHO CARES ABOUT STARKS ........


I CARE ONLY ABOUT THE TE,WR ON THAT TEAM ...

Nothing will happen to you, LOL. Rest easy. Internet is safe and secure.

ALoco,

Starks is the #18 out of the top 50 rated fa's. Hartline is rated #49. Rotflamo! See for yourself:

http://nfltraderumors.co/top-50-2013-nfl-free-agents/

We have made Internet so, under threat of annihilation, LOL. Besides, one of our off-spring resides there, and though we can't vouch for his behaviour, he can't be All bad. GN.

YG,,I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.......

Randy Starks original 2008 contract with us was 5yrs $20 million. So, going into his 10TH season, Im sure he doesnt expect more than $6 million a year. He was on the books for $5 million last year.

Starks isnt going to break the bank anywhere he signs going into his 10TH SEASON. LOL...

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE TV ?????????

ALL THESE BAD REALITY SHOWS ......

CHEESY
BAD
WAL-MART A LIKE .....

YG,,I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.......

Posted by: ALoco | February 07, 2013 at 08:35 PM

Research is a beautiful thing isnt it? Many rather snatch things from their a s s here.

Also check out the 51-100 list and teams salary caps on this website. You'll see the links at the top of the page:


http://nfltraderumors.co/top-50-2013-nfl-free-agents/

Es Despertad, chico, Despertad.

Oscar The Pet Psychologist

YG,

I NEVER RESEARCH ANY ABOUT THAT CRAPPY FOOTBALL ............WHY WOULD I ,WHEN YOU GUYS DOING THAT .

At #23, Danny Amendola(Rams wr) is ranked far higher than Hartline on the top 50 fa list. LOL.....

Fasano is ranked #73 on the top 100 fa list. LOL...

Danny Amendola is ranked far higher than Brtian Hartline on the top 50 fa list and he only has:

63 rec 666yds 3 tds

#23 vs #49 ROTFLMAO....................................

I am educated. I am a chemical eng. for P&G. Iran is a god hating terrorist nation and you use there opinions to downgrade americans? hey mindr@#$er, why don't u move there so we can kill u just like the rest after we find nuclear weapons.

I think Vaccaro at 12 is one heck of a reach. He'll be lucky if he gets drafted by the 3rd round. Besides that it's a dumb pick at 12 with the glaring needs the team has elsewhere. I saw that mock last week and got a good laugh at it.

Hartline avgs 3.4 yard after the catch. Amendola 4.2 yds after the catch. Nearly a full yard more. LOL....


Posted by: dadsmithwest | February 07, 2013 at 08:48 PM

Vaccaro is head and shoulders the highest rated safety in this draft. He'll go 1st rd to someone. Just makes ZERO SENSE for the Dolphins to make him the pick at #12.

Keep Odrick. Resign Starks. Let Go Of Soliai Next Year.

On The DE's?

Werner? Really?!

Drago Has Bust Written All Over His Forehead!!

The Fins Need LB's More Than They Need DE's! OLB! MLB! Any LB!!

My Money Is On Ogletree! Or The OLB from A&M! If He Happens To Drop!

You Know 1 LB! That Makes At Least 1 Impact Play! Preferably 5+!! A Year!!

Mel Kiper Is Always Wrong!! Plus He Is A Jets Fan!!

If You Were A Draft Guru and Happen to Be A Jets Fan! How Would You Rate The Dolphins?

What Was It That Clown Said? T-Hill Will Be A Bust!!

How Does This Clown Still Have A Job? I Remember Him Saying V.Gholston Was The Perfect Player For R.Ryan! and His Defense!!

If Mel Was So Good!! They Wouldn't Need Todd Mcshay!!

Ireland Will Pick The Safest Player In The First Round!!

Simple Fact!!

Ireland Will Pick The Sure Thing Over The Project In The First!!

And With Philbin As HC! Ireland Will Make The Right Pick!

How about Jarius Byrd for free safety #1 free agent priority

kruger from baltimore should be who were after in FA. 2 of baltimores LBers are free agents and on is retiring, pro football focus says no way baltimore will be able to resign both and pay the one they draft. he cuold be up for grabs.

As a long suffering Un Tenn fan...it was hard to watch that team this last season, mainly b/c of the horrible D. Patterson WAS the real deal. He needs to learn better route running however, his hands are the best sen in years. He is also a GREAT KR/PR. He skills on the field last year reminded me of a combination of Randy Moss and Julio Jones. Very elusive. Tremendous RAC!! IMO, I think he is special.

The one thing we can count onis Ireland to make the wrong decisions.

I think Armando would be a pretty good GM.

Free agency: WR, CB, RB, J Byrd(only player that we really NEED to pay big))

Resign: Hartline WR, McDaniel DT

Position shifts: Odrick to inside, Martin to LT

Draft: 1: CB
2: TE
2: WR
3: RT
3: DE (pass rusher to battle Vernon/shelby)
4: DE (same as above. Wake will soon be old)
5: CB ( R. Jones was a 5th round pick..y not?)
6: RG ( J. Jerry ended ok. This is for competition/depth)
7: FS ( Depth pick)

Wow the blog is in full meltdown.....again.

Trade down and draft Zach Ertz, studly Tight End from Stanford.

Im tired of trading down. We end up with garbage.

Panthers 3 Flyers 2 OT

Yes, let Hartline go to say, I don't know...the Patriots!!

Just in time to replace an aging Welker. Great idea. Then he can haunt us for the next ten years. Great plan.

I'm still so stoked about the TRADE ODRICK notion getting out there that iys hard to focus on this post, except for the obligatory prayer that we FIRE IRELAND.

Odrick yet another blah mediocrity rated wayyyyyyyyy too highly by our "Brain Trust."

If Matt Moore leaves since he is a free agent Fins should get a QB in late round like Landry Jones or Ryan Nassib. Keep picking a QB until you feel you have the right one.

TEXAS A&M DE #94 DAMONTRE MOORE WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND PICK AT NUMBER TWELVETO FOR THE MIAMI DOLPHINS IN THE 2013 NFL DRAFT.

IF WE'RE GONNA TAKE SOMEONE FROM TEXAS A&M IT BETTER BE MANZIEL.

If we can make a trade and grab an extra pick I say,
Free agency -
resign- hartline, long, bush
Sign- Jennings or Wallace, Jared cook, Derek cox,
1-Trade up for dee milliner,
2- best TE ertz or eifert
2- best DE best available
Fill rest of needs WR, OL, so on
This gives us two lock down corners, playmakers at WR, TE(seam threats), RB. Let Long walk if he asks too much, just sign a good right tackle move martin over to blindside and pray for a gem in the draft.

Give me your thoughts and what you might change!!!!

If the Dolphins think stability is good then they ought to try hard to keep all their starters even if they have to slightly overpay. These guys cant be losing starters and expecting Ireland to fill the holes.

If the Fins truly want impact players, they need to move up by giving up one of their second round picks and possibly a later pick, to draft a player like Mingo, Werner or Millner. Later they can pick up a player like Matthieu who has a history of being a play maker at LSU. Much like Jenkins from UF last year, someone will jump on Mathieu in the first 3 rounds in spite of his off field issues.

I see the lust and desire in your eyes when you sneak a glance at my broad chest, muscled torso, perfect abs, and impressive equipment as I emerge naked and dripping from the shower.

Do not be embarrassed. It would be impossible not to stare.

I haven't talked about Damontre because he probably will go #2 overall after Joeckel. Hard to get there but he's some kind of demon.

Is it just me or does it seem like alot of teams have more free agents than I've seen in the past. How free agency ends up will dictate the draft strategy. At number 12 it's easy, take the best player available at one of the need positions. Rule out TE as I don't think any of this year's prospects grade out that high. There are quite a few late first rounders, and 2nd and 3rd rounders, but not a top half of the draft TE. To go that high, a TE needs to be an athletic freak like V. Davis. While there are good tight ends on the board, there are none of that caliber. Weren't Gronk and Hernandez 2nd rounders?

Oscar, te amo con todo mi corazón, mi pequeño panqueque. Quiero tener a mi bebé, y te sustentamos yogur en una bañera

Very good RBs can be found in later rounds but I'm wary of Ireland's ability to draft 3rd Rd on as he has not demonstrated it to be good. We need to get the maximum from our 1st and the two 2nds.

I'd rather have Geena, Charles. Sorry.

To Draft #1, there has to be this huge Player, a can't miss sore thumb from a distance, like Pouncey, RT. That is good.

Odrick is no play maker but solid. Clemons I believe can be fine tuned, he is fast & is decent in coverage . he cant catch a cold but I beleive you can work on hand eye to fix that. As a whole our 2ndary drops too many, get em up to par on that & i think the players needed in the secondary is reduced, this inlcudes keeping Sean smith, but if he walks I like teh Jax CB, not Mathis the other 4 get his name

However, as Time goes by and hopefully, we will not have those top 15 Draft picks to work with. Then, we will need to work something out a la Belichick who is no good with later Rd picks either.(except for Brady)

Belichick is a master at signing rejects from other Teams and turning them into very good Football Players. Philbin, as of now, has not established that fact.

But he might.

In regard too Vacarro.

"I have not watched the guy on tape, but his statistics don't exactly suggest he's the next Ed Reed."

-Armando Salguero-
-------------------

Actually, I personally refrain from commenting on players that I simply haven't watched play.

I get it, I understand what you're saying, and I agree. I also realize you were trying to speak on the two guys mentioned by Kiper and McShay.

But............

Sorry Armando, you could have took 5 minutes to Youtube up the players in question. This way you could have formed a better opinion and legitimized your position. Heck, if you would've spent 10 minutes on Youtube, you could've stated your opinions with just as much, if not MORE "Expertise" than these two Blow Wads-lol!

Just the same Fella, for failing to do so, you get one Great Big: C'Mon MAN!!!!


Ripp,

The 1st rd pick invested in Odrick was in drafting a 3-4 DE. We play 4-3 now. The DE responsibility is as different as night and day.

Now if you could trade Odrick and parlay it into a 4-3 DE. That would be great work. And no, I highly doubt anyone's going to "break the bank" for DT(Starks) going into his 10th season.

Aint gonna happen, Starks knows this. At this stage of his career he's probably glad to get $5 million a year. Starks 2012 cap hit was 5 million. $6 million would probably be the max anyone's willing to offer Starks going into his 10th season. LOL....

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | February 07, 2013 at 07:22 PM

_______________________________________________________

A DE in a 3-4 system is just a DT moved on the outside. 3-4 DEs are not valuable because they do not normally produce sacks, their role is too take up blockers so the LBs could make plays. Odrick played in a 4-3 defense in college and he played every position. He is best suited for DT and trust me if he moved to DT there would not be any drop off from Starks, in fact it may be an upgrade. I will also go back and say we can't be giving up on 1st rd investment so quickly and getting less in value in return. That is not what winning teams do. You don't make a trade just to make a trade. Odrick's value right now is probably a low 2nd. So why give away a proven player of that quality for an unproven talent? More so trading away a proven player for a draft pick in what is generally seen as a weak draft class? Sorry but it makes no sense.

Starks isnt going to break the bank anywhere he signs going into his 10TH SEASON. LOL...

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | February 07, 2013 at 08:35 PM
------------

For as goofy as you were being earlier about Von Miller being bad, this is an excellent point. I've posted it previously, to no avail.

This is a fact that many keep ignoring as they talk of Starks and Odrick's futures here.

I think Starks will be putting the emphasis on the length of contract due to his age. He made 4 or 5 million a year on his last one. So I can see him wanting 6 or 7 million with the deal breaker being a 3 or 4 year contract.

I personally would offer him a 3 year - $6.5 million dollar deal **COMPLETELY** Front Loaded. Or at least Front Loaded as much as possible. This way, if his play falls off(much) in year 2, the Front Loading will make his Cap Hit minimal should we axe him before year 3(If you're reading this, make a note Dawn Aponte).

The only Monkey Wrench I see is some team offering him a little bit more for a 1 year deal. Like I said above, I see this as the deal breaker. Starks will opt to stay put.

(I have no problems with just keeping Odrick too(unless you do find someone ignorant enough to give up a 1st or 2nd round pick(very unlikely IMO). Odrick is already under contract, offers quality depth and should be ready to prove just how Great or Average he can be. This will be his contract year to show what he's learned, to show if he's going to develop and step into the elite category. Either that or prove he's simply a journeyman backup. This is the season that will show us if Ireland F'ed up on another high round pick or not)

Here's an idea, Armando. Try actually WATCHING the players before passing comment. Or God forbid, actually researching into Patterson's back ground before passing comment on why he went to JUCO.

Slide down few spots and grab Tyler Eifert, This draft is weak and nothing screams at Miami with the #12 Pick! I agree to Grab Wallace in Free Agency, and def. grab corners as next priority. (2nd & 3rd rounds) or best availabe F.A's. BUT, We need to lock down a solid Tight End once and for all!!!

It seems that Todd McShay should update his knowledge of the Dolphins. Safety will be waaay down the list of team needs if UFA Chris Clemmons is resigned. Miami had one of the better pair of starting safeties in the game for 2012. Sounds incredible, doesn't it- what with the way teams attacked Miami's pass defense? Well, it built some good stats for Clemmons and Jones...

Jones was strong most of the year and Clemmons play improved throughout the year in DC Kevin Coyle's system. The tandem was strong in both pass and run defense. NFL QB passer ratings against #5 rated Jones area of coverage = 38.0; #14 rated Clemmons = 52.4. Barry Jackson (Miami Herald) reports that Clemmons, according to Pro Football Focus, was the top rated safety in the league for allowing the lowest percentage of passes in his coverage area to be completed for first downs or touchdowns, while Jones was 5th.

Here's why Vaccaro at 12 is dumb. The guy is not going to put points on the board and had 2 INT's last year and the year before. The glaring needs on the team scream for offensive playmakers that can score TD's. No way does Ireland draft him at 12. Mark it down I'm saying no way in heck does that happen.

Mel Kiper's pick of a WR at #12 was not so nearly off the mark as McShay's. The combine should show some movement of WRs up and down draft boards as speed and strength testing is reported. The Dolphins may well find a top prospect WR around their 1st pick position. However, Jake Long is a wild card here and the team's 1st pick may end up being one of the top tackle prospects, leaving Miami to collect WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

TE seems to be the most bang-for-the-buck position in the NFL currently and the Dolphins would be wise to spend FA money on 2- yes TWO- of these guys. It would immeasurably help the O-line blocking and the run game; increase passing stats and red zone threats; and give Tannehill his needed security blanket.

Talking about the draft BEFORE free agency is important. The Fins need to know where they feel the draft is deep and where it's weak before they make final decisions on their own free agents and signing new free agents.

Positions of need:
WR
CB
TE
OT
G
DE
S
RB
LB

That is a lot of improvement needed. So, where is draft deep? How realistic is it to fill any of these positions with top talent in the first 3 rounds? You can't assume you will fill will top talent beyond round 3. Is it possible? Sure but the likelihood goes down quite a bit.

So, if we are going to talk Draft in February I'd like to know where the draft class is considered deep and can we use the top 5 picks to fill these positions of need with top talent.

Then we can determine if we can fill the other positions of need in Free Agency. Then Ireland and Philbin need to figure out how to maximize the salary cap and finalize their plan of attack.

Lord knows I hope they get it right.

Hey Oscar,You asked,"what does one do with 6th and 7th round picks?" Tom Brady was a 6th round pick,Jimmy wilson was a 7th round pick. There is a ton of talent that are real good players that go either in the late rounds,or undrafted. ie; Devon Bess. Just sayin

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