What Wallace brings and what that's worth

So what is Mike Wallace worth to the Dolphins?

That's a question the Dolphins have been trying to answer for weeks since they identified Wallace as first a possible, then a likely, then a full-fledged must-have addition to the team.

We'll have an answer within 24-48 hours as free agency kicks off at 4 p.m. this afternoon and that signals the mad dash to get Burnell Michael Wallace II to put his name on a Miami Dolphins contract.

The deal is not done, contrary to a report yesterday. Indeed, after that "report" reared its head, I texted multiple team sources to see if it was true. "LOL the media," is one answer I got, which made fun of the report and reporter.

But if (I emphasize if because nothing is done until it is done) the Dolphins do land Wallace, what are they likely to pay and what are they likely to get for the price?

Let's start with performance. Remember that Nick Saban was fond of saying that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the best predictor of future production is past production.

In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?

Well, consider that the Dolphins as a team threw 13 touchdowns passes in 2012 and suddenly those eight TDs per year from Wallace are looking mighty valuable.

Now, how did Wallace come by those numbers?

There is a theory afoot that Wallace benefitted greatly from the fact Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a champion of keeping plays alive and thus giving Wallace more time to get deep, get open and get the ball for explosive scores.

There is, admittedly, something to that. There's no denying Roethlisberger had something to do with Wallace's success and if the wide receiver's next quarterback doesn't play as well as Roethlisberger has, Wallace's statistics are likely to decline.

But ...

Notice that Wallace averaged eight touchdowns the past two seasons and averaged eight touchdowns over his career, as well. The player is nothing if not consistent in that regard. And that must therefore take into account that Roethlisberger missed games last year and Wallace still produced.

I also must point out that the Steelers' offensive line has been leaking sacks and hurries the last couple of years. That team has been unable to produce either a consistent running game or been exceedingly good in pass protection. So yes, Roethlisberger is a magician keeping plays alive but that's because he has to be.

A less magical quarterback with a solid offensive line providing decent time to throw can accomplish the same results, assuming the QB has good vision downfield and is accurate.

So production is not, or should not be a question mark for this prospective free agent wide receiver.

That begs the question how high will the market allow Wallace's price to go?

Remember that Dwayne Bowe recently signed a five-year, $56 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That averages $11.2 million per season and surpasses the five-year, $55 million deal Vincent Jackson signed last year with Tampa Bay on a yearly average basis. Jackson's deal averages out to $11 million per season.

But's it's not just the overall money and average that are important. Indeed, the guaranteed money is the key.

Jackson received $26 million in guaranteed money. I believe that is the figure Wallace wants to beat along with the per year average.

I would expect Mike Wallace will get a five-year deal from whatever team he signs with and he'll be shooting for $12 million per season, as I've reported before. Depending on whether there is competition or not for Wallace will determine if Wallace hits that $12 million per year but he will certainly reach at least $11.5 million per year.

And that $57.5 to $60 million contract must come with between $27 to $30 million in guaranteed money.

Whopping numbers, to be sure.

But, barring new factors being uncovered between now and 4 p.m., that's going to be the cost of adding 8 TDs and 1,014 yards to Miami's passing offense. That's going to be the vicinity for signing Mike Wallace.

Comments

[Renvez]

30 mil is too much for 8 TDs. Sht, Fasano had 5. Jackson didn't produce for the Bucs and neither has Bowe relative to $$. These are desperate teams......reaching. I say: too bad, so sad Mr. Mike Wallace. You get 20mil guaranteed + no state taxes, sun and a back loaded contract. Or, enjoy Minnesota...OUTDOORS. With Percy H 'legacy'.

[Adam Pratt]

@renvez what are you talking about V. Jackson definately produced for the Bucs, he had almost 1400 yards and 8 TD's that is a great season. You pay for production and Miami will pay for Wallace tomorrow.

[Yesterday's Gone 4Ever!]

You're not only talking pass production with Mike Wallace. You're also talking a huge shot in the arm for the run game. Wallace will prevent those safeties from creeping down into the run box.

When they do, it'll be playaction pass home run. Plus when a safety is rolled over to Wallace's side in double coverage. That opens up the middle of the field for more passing production.

A wr like Wallace can really help to open up your offensive playbook.

[mace taggart]

We'll find out in 11.hrs because guys we'll be signing and Wallace will definitely be 1 of them !!

[oscar canosa]

I mean, we are Nobody's fools. There's a big push for Mike Wallace here, even Greg Cote got into the act. Why? The guy as a FA is not the second coming of Peyton Manning, not even of Vincent Jackson. Is he really our Personnel Dept. chief's wish or is he being brought here for "other" purposes?(the Hoopla, the Circus)

[Hayden Fox]

Mando vs. Volin...wow!

[rafman]

The overwhelming secret to successful teams is to develop their players from within, not buy them. To spend an enormous amount on one player is nothing but a detriment to the rest of the team. Name me one team that purchased their success through an individual.

[FED UP PHINS FAN]

Gren Bay.. Reggie White

[Fins of Fury]

I agree rafman, I can't see the logic in such a desperate move. I hope Ireland has learned something in his years on the job. He was lucky to get rid of Marshall for what he got there. That kind of money could get two starting CBs or OL. With the speed in the draft at WR and the picks we have, fix it there.

[oscar canosa]

Well, Brandon Marshall is an ultra-talented Receiver, one of the Megatrons type and much better than Wallace can aspire to be. He just was brought here under the wrong conditions.

[Hollywood9]

I normally enjoy just reading our fans post, been a fan myself since 1970! But I gktta say there's just no pleasing some of you . Everyone wants heaven, who is willing to die?

[Hollywood9]

Complain, complain , if all we do is cry, what is left for our children to do? Grow up people, it cost to be here. There was a huge bill the day each of us were born!

[ALoco]

ARMANDO,

WE ARE DOING YOUR JOB...

M
I
K
E
W
A
LL
A
CE
IS A DOLPHIN.......

OUR GARAGE MANAGER SIGNED HIM FOR ALMOST 12 MILLION A YEAR.........

HE ALWAYS SIGNS PLAYERS AFTER PASSING THEIR PRIME......

THE
CELLAR..

[Fins of Fury]

Not saying Marshall is not a talent. Saying price didn't match production(whether because of dumbass coach,QB or whatever)and he was lucky to get out from under the contract.

[dolphin]

Forget Williams and draft Swope from Texas a&m he has played with tannehill before!

[ALoco]

A REPORT IN THE BOSTON GLOBE SAYING ,THAT WALLACE WAS NOT SURE ABOUT NEW ENGLAND INTEREST .

[promichael]

Armando,

Wallace is worth it with what he brings. He opens up the short passes, screens, running game. When doubled he makes other receivers look better. The Dolphins were contesting both the Patriots and Giants until the closing minute of their regular season games. This was the season that both teams last played in the Super Bowl. The Dolphins had a number one receiver in Brandon Marshall who was often double teamed. That is what a number one guy brings to the table. Wallace is more of a deep threat than Brandon Marshall. Moreover the Dolphins should have better protection and more weapons moving forward.

[dadsmithwest]

The risk of the open market...I'd reduce the offer to Jake to around 6 mil per season and put in a lot of incentives. He's got little interest on the open market and is a hell of a risk. Winston gave up 3 sacks all year and Long gave that up in 4 games.

[klndry]

12 million a year? For 8 td's? Really? 1/10th of the cap space. 1/10th of the total money of all 53 players on your team. Then ask the question. Is he worth it? Will he completely change the team by 10 percent. 10 percent will give us 2 more wins. That puts us at 9-7.

What happens if he has a girlie hissie fit and decides to run slow or drop a pass?

There are always better solutions and there is still the draft as well. But drive the price up for sure.

[reg]

Kindry, I understand what your saying but don't agree with your maths. As an example you say a better option is the draft. do you think the entire draft class will contribute more or less than the 10% you say wallace 'may' only bring? The maths have to work to a degree but the game is played by players and coaches(and luck) I would be prepared to overpay for wallace but there is a sensible limit, where we use this money to get better with different players/schemes. Will be interesting to see how the steelers do without wallace to see the true effect he had on the team and the numbers the team/players can out up.

[dadsmithwest]

Mr. Ireland...There's still time to get Jennings...and save the team a bunch of cash. We can use those savings for other positions of need like TE and OT.

I still believe there is a good chance it unfolds that way and Wallace signs with another team.

[MIADOLFAN207]

ARMANDO,
YOU FAIL TO REALIZE THAT THE SYSTEM MAKE OR BREAK FOOTBALL PLAYERS.

[Dolfan Rick]

It's going to be an annoying day with the last minute rumors and smokescreens.

At the end of the day I believe Wallace is a Dolphin though. Then its on to LT, TE, and DB.

[Fins of Fury]

I really don't think we are serious at all about Wallace. I think all this secret info that been leaked out to the media is a diversion. Notice the talk of Jennings to Miami has practically disappeared.

[dadsmithwest]

My FA wishlist hasn't changed. However it winds up today I'm still going to support the team and believe we are headed in a better direction.

WR Jennings 8-9 mil
TE Bennett 6 mil
DE Bennett 7 mil
OT Winston 5-6 mil

[scottbibs]

The problem is Ireland just doesn't know how to pick talent if he did we would not have to spend big in free agency, he doesn't know how to pick offensive weapons, Hartline is the best player he has drafted in terms of putting points on the board i am counting lineman here, we better hope Lamar Miller can do what Bush did last year and really bush could have had a better year with more touches and passes thrown his way.

[dadsmithwest]

Who is feeling anxious or nervous today? Here let me pile on...Is it true Minnesota may offer Wallace 13 mil per year after ticking off A. Peterson with the Harvin trade yesterday? What about the Browns are they going to bid?

It's not a time to look for the panic button just yet but it's going to be this way for the next 8.5 or more hours. Who wants a bidding war for Wallace? Who's ready for this whole thing to get turned upside down? We could still end up with neither big name WR and have to use the draft.

[MOKIKI]

Can we just stop complaining till after the draft please!!!

What is Ireland supposed to do? Nothing!! If he brings in Wallace or Jennings great!! We need playmakers!!

Remember, all draft picks have the rookie wage scale, no more Jake Long type contracts.

[Fins of Fury]

Ireland was getting talent for a faulted system with inferior coaching. I am interested to see how he can do now. I also am not impressed the talent from his early years with the team, but I like the direction he and the team has now.

[MOKIKI]

The good thing is someone wants to overpay for Wallace fine. The Dolphins have options with Jennings, other FA WR's or draft picks. I'm not going to hedge the future of this team on whether we get Wallace or Jennings.

[#1 Dolphin Fan in Montreal]

So this is the big day Dolphin fans...Now the question is...Will Ireland swing and miss like he's been doing for the last 3 years or is he finally going to hit a HR??? Get Mike Wallace down to South Florida...And it doesn't end there...We need a lot more...Bennett wouldn't do any harm either...Let's get some darn playmakers!

[Rdubs]

I love it, I will be on the edge of my seat all day waiting for 4 pm (Yes I live a sad life)!! This is my favorite time of the year to be a Dolphin fan, because we havent started losing yet and the different scenarios start swirling around my brain, like arecently flushed public toilet!!! I cant wait to purchase my new logo Mike Wallace jersey!

[bk]

I agree with Fins of Fury it is very un-Ireland like to let the media know who his top target is. And the Greg Jennings front is unusually quiet. I smell a smoke screen with Wallace I could be wrong but just going with past experiances with Ireland. I also have a hard time thinking that Philbin wants Wallace over Jennings. The offense installed doesn't require a top WR. This is why Jennings and Gibson make sense you get two wr's that fit what you are trying to do for the price of one Wallace.

[Rdubs]

And for those who are nervous about Minnesota, dont forget Ponder has no arm strength which would make Wallace a bad fit for them. Wallace needs a QB who can throw the ball down the field, a manly armed QB like Tannehill LOL

[#1 Dolphin Fan in Montreal]

And Armando, from the last blog, I really, really hope you're wrong...I mean, we finally have money to spend on guys who score touchdowns and we'll waste it on a LT who's falling apart but wants megatron money and a corner who's the biggest wuss in the NFL...No thanks...

[greg z.]

lets hope philbin is calling the shots. ireland doesnt have a clue when it comes to playmakers: patrick turner,clyde gates,egnew,roberto wallace etc

[Fins of Fury]

If we can come out of FA and solidify needed positions to the point that it allows us the ability to be objective in the draft, I think it will be a success. For instance if we can replace and even upgrade the loss of Long, Smith, or whomever we lose it will allow us to best utilize a draft that is deep in talent at DB, DE and WR.
I think the retaining of Hartline and Starks is already putting us in a position of more freedom and opportunity.

[Mark in Toronto]

It's NFL Christmas Part #1 (#2 is the draft)

I don't think Wallace is a smokescreen as this move has Ross' fingerprints all over it. It was his primary objective to add a legit WR and I guess that's Wallace. He is super fast but will definitely be overpaid for his production no matter how much money he gets. Those yardage numbers are just not that great considering the offense he played in except for last year.

[#1 Dolphin Fan in Montreal]

greg z, I hear ya...I'm nervous as well...Ireland has screwed up so many times it's not even funny...Let's hope he finally gets it right...

[#1 Dolphin Fan in Montreal]

The two guys who need the most help on this team is Ryan Tannehill and Cameron Wake...I wouldn't mind picking up a veteran pass rusher like Usi or Harrison...Can you imagine Wake and Harrison together?? Wow!!

[Mark in Toronto]

If you're nervous, imagine how ireland feels knowing that if he doesn't rell in the big fish he will have used up his goodwill with the owner ...

[MIADOLFAN207]

SPEED DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING ONCE THE PLAYER STARTS AGING. PLAYERS LIKE JERRY RICE, CRIS CARTER, MICHAEL IRVIN, TIM BROWN, AND STERLING SHARPE WERE ALL GREAT ROUTE RUNNERS. SPEED HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THEIR SUCCESS. O.J. MCDUFFIE BECAME DAN MARINO'S FAVORITE TARGET BECAUSE HE KNEW HOW TO RUN PRECISE ROUTES TO GET OPEN FOR PASSES, ALSO LET TO MENTION, O.J. MCDUFFIE LED THE NFL IN RECEPTIONS ONE SEASON. GO AHEAD AND DRAFT A SPEEDY RECEIVER IN THE DRAFT FOR LESSER MONEY, SOMEONE LIKE TEXAS A&M WR RYAN SWOPES, WHO ALREADY UNDERSTANDS MIKE SHERMAN'S TERMINOLOGY. HE RUNS PRETTY GOOD ROUTES AND HAS THE SPEED OF A MIKE WALLACE. HE'S JUST MISSING THE EXPERIENCE.

[Mark in Toronto]

#1, both those guys are used up ... Osi especially. When in NY during the season the feeling amongst the hardcore was that Osi just didn't have it anymore. This from very educated season ticket holders ... personally I want no part of it.

Harrison is also broken. he wasn't the biggest guy but played brutally hard.

I wouldn't expect much from either.

The guy is like is Paul Kruger but it looks like the team is blowing it's load on Wallace and saving reserves for Jake Long. Maybe room for one more but I expect Paul Kruger to be someone's day one signing ...

[Mark in Toronto]

Yeah, McDuffie lead the NFl in receptions that year but still didn't break 1,000 yards in that season ... incredible for a WR ...

[jeff]

STill not fired up about this guy..... Tannehill cannot throw the deep ball, so that is a ton of money that will not be used.

[jeff]

I would be fired up with this signing if Moore, who can actually throw an accurate deep ball were the QB.

[MIADOLFAN207]

WR WES WELKER WOULDN'T BE A BAD PLAYER TO SIGN OVER MIKE WALLACE FOR A LOWER PRICE.

[#1 Dolphin Fan in Montreal]

Mark, I don't think Harrison is broken...Matter of opinion...I think he still has a lot left...A lot of players in Pittsburgh underachieved last year but I don't think it means all of them are broken...You take a chance on a veteran, it's a cheaper alternative than a player in his prime like Kruger...Besides, before last year, nobody knew who this guy was...If we're going to spend big bucks, I'd rather spend it on corners...And the draft is a deep one for pass rushers...

[LOL]

I hope Miami is prepared to pay. PFt reports Vikes prepared to pay up to 13 mil per season for Wallace.

Rick Spielman of all people, may be the thorn in Miami's & Ireland's side!

You had to think they were going to go after Wallace BIGTIME after they cut Jenkins & traded Harvin. They have capable WR's on the roster.

They are going to go nuts trying to land Wallace & potentially Jennings or Welker. I think Miami is in trouble today with Wallace!

[dbmfins]

It will be a great day for Dolfans if by the end of the day we have WR Mike Wallace and TE Jared Cook on our roster. However, if the Dolphins cannot land Cook, or if his price is too high, we should sign RFA Dennis Pitta away from the Ravens for a second rounder. I think the offense will primarily be made over in the FA market, with the possible exception of the Longs/Martins replacement. I believe the Dolphins give Long time to test the market by waiting for the draft to replace him. Conversely, if Long remains unsigned and the Dolphins either draft or sign a FA O-Lineman, then Long will not be back regardless.
This draft looks to be heavily loaded with defensive players and that is where Ireland will be spending a majority of our picks. I also see him trading down for future years picks in a Belichick-ish style!

[mia73]

Media is frothing, ready to pounce at the first sign that Wallace defects to Minnesota, Cleveland, or other suitors.

[tvegas897]

What is it with Mando's love fest with this guy?
Fellas, trust me on this one. Mike Wallace is a good player. He's far from a great player. He's pure speed... true. But nothing else. I'm not breaking the bank for this guy, sorry.

And Jared Cook is another classic underachiever that will get a big payday for nothing.. I would rather spend half the money on Brandon Myers, or go back to the draft again.

Nobody can convince me that Jared Cook and Mike Wallace will make the Fins instant contenders.

[Mark in Toronto]

Maybe Montreal but the guy is going to be 37 and has had a bad back for a couple of seasons ... between the two I'd lean towards Harrison but certainly wouldn't count on him and doubt he would subject himself to much more punishment for a cut rate deal but who knows?

[MIADOLFAN207]

I WOULD TRADE FOR MORE DRAFT PICKS AND SELECT TE TYLER EIFERT (NOTRE DAME). TEXAS A&M DE #94 D. MOORE WOULDN'T BE A BAD PICK EITHER AS A FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK. SELECTING FSU CB #27 X. RHODES AND TEXAS A&M WR RYAN SWOPES IN THE SECOND ROUND.

[Mark in Toronto]

LOL, if it wasn't going to be Minnesota, it was going to be someone else. I knnew not to trust these done deal reports. How many of these have we seen before only to be left holding our dikks? I'm still upset over the Harbaugh miss.

[Mark in Toronto]

Damontre Moore??? Who else has a DE with 12 reps on the bench? Pfft, he and Johnathan martin can have tickle fights in Davie this summer ...

[tvegas897]

The Broncos also have asked Pro Bowl defensive end Elvis Dumervil to take a pay cut. If not, he'll be traded or released before Saturday when his $12 million salary for 2013 becomes guaranteed.

Save your money for a guy like this... If none of us have noticed, the Fins have a bunch of roster holes to fill. And it starts with another pass rusher, and a much better secondary than what we have today. Blow our wad on Wallace, and then watch the Dolphins get cheap and miss on some real good football players that are hitting the open market. The show hasm't even started yet.

[AndyNJ]

Good day guys!

I hope it's better by say 4:30ish! I hope Miami is able to upgrade thier roster at a few spots and significantly upgrade the teams SPEED and PLAYMAKING with MIKE WALLACE!

The price doesn't bother me. It's the cost in doing business with free agents, particularly guys of Wallace caliber. He brings a dimension this offense hasn't had in well EVER! You would be hard pressed to come up with a WR who Miami has had that can take the top off the defense, take a 10 yard pass, 80 yards or have a defense respect your deep ball ability before the play even starts. He is only 1 part of what this offense has been lacking but a very big part.

If Miami in fact does add the playmaker in Mike Wallace I would be in favor and get ready for it..... Drafting Tyler Eifert in round 1. He would give Miami the thing it also needs a seam stretching TE with the size and frame to be a big time red zone target. I don't care that it's a reach because it's only slightly a reach. Eifert won't be there in round 2 when Miami picks and more then likely won't make it past the 25th pick or so. It would give Miami a number of players with different skill sets that compliment each other.

WR 1 Mike Wallace - playmaker, SPEED.
WR 2 Brian Hartline - reliable, good hands, good #2
WR 3 slot Davone Bess - reliable move the chains
TE Tyler Eifert - seam stretching, red zone

[TGIHF]

Mando your logic re: Wallace is flawed.

His past production was based on playing for a championship team and Ben R throwing the ball to him. That ain't the case here. We still don't know for sure if Tanny is up to the task and our OC is not all that creative.

Just sayin!

[LOL]

Mark, yes it would be naive for us to think that only the fins were trying to arm their young qb with talent. We are far from the only team trying to do so.

Min, Cle, Buf, hell even the jets would be trying to sign WR's if they had any cap space.

I still think Miami should pursue C. Peprah at Safety. he'd come cheap & has a history with Philbin from his time in GB. Could easily start for us & fill a need on the cheap without breaking the bank.

Miami should fill as many needs on the O side in FA so that they can use the draft, deep at D, to find young talent that can take over in a couple years. Specifally at MLB, OLB & in the secondary.