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What Wallace brings and what that's worth

So what is Mike Wallace worth to the Dolphins?

That's a question the Dolphins have been trying to answer for weeks since they identified Wallace as first a possible, then a likely, then a full-fledged must-have addition to the team.

We'll have an answer within 24-48 hours as free agency kicks off at 4 p.m. this afternoon and that signals the mad dash to get Burnell Michael Wallace II to put his name on a Miami Dolphins contract.

The deal is not done, contrary to a report yesterday. Indeed, after that "report" reared its head, I texted multiple team sources to see if it was true. "LOL the media," is one answer I got, which made fun of the report and reporter.

But if (I emphasize if because nothing is done until it is done) the Dolphins do land Wallace, what are they likely to pay and what are they likely to get for the price?

Let's start with performance. Remember that Nick Saban was fond of saying that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the best predictor of future production is past production.

In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?

Well, consider that the Dolphins as a team threw 13 touchdowns passes in 2012 and suddenly those eight TDs per year from Wallace are looking mighty valuable.

Now, how did Wallace come by those numbers?

There is a theory afoot that Wallace benefitted greatly from the fact Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a champion of keeping plays alive and thus giving Wallace more time to get deep, get open and get the ball for explosive scores.

There is, admittedly, something to that. There's no denying Roethlisberger had something to do with Wallace's success and if the wide receiver's next quarterback doesn't play as well as Roethlisberger has, Wallace's statistics are likely to decline.

But ...

Notice that Wallace averaged eight touchdowns the past two seasons and averaged eight touchdowns over his career, as well. The player is nothing if not consistent in that regard. And that must therefore take into account that Roethlisberger missed games last year and Wallace still produced.

I also must point out that the Steelers' offensive line has been leaking sacks and hurries the last couple of years. That team has been unable to produce either a consistent running game or been exceedingly good in pass protection. So yes, Roethlisberger is a magician keeping plays alive but that's because he has to be.

A less magical quarterback with a solid offensive line providing decent time to throw can accomplish the same results, assuming the QB has good vision downfield and is accurate.

So production is not, or should not be a question mark for this prospective free agent wide receiver.

That begs the question how high will the market allow Wallace's price to go?

Remember that Dwayne Bowe recently signed a five-year, $56 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That averages $11.2 million per season and surpasses the five-year, $55 million deal Vincent Jackson signed last year with Tampa Bay on a yearly average basis. Jackson's deal averages out to $11 million per season.

But's it's not just the overall money and average that are important. Indeed, the guaranteed money is the key.

Jackson received $26 million in guaranteed money. I believe that is the figure Wallace wants to beat along with the per year average.

I would expect Mike Wallace will get a five-year deal from whatever team he signs with and he'll be shooting for $12 million per season, as I've reported before. Depending on whether there is competition or not for Wallace will determine if Wallace hits that $12 million per year but he will certainly reach at least $11.5 million per year.

And that $57.5 to $60 million contract must come with between $27 to $30 million in guaranteed money.

Whopping numbers, to be sure.

But, barring new factors being uncovered between now and 4 p.m., that's going to be the cost of adding 8 TDs and 1,014 yards to Miami's passing offense. That's going to be the vicinity for signing Mike Wallace.

Comments

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tvegas at 9:18, definitely blow a bunch of cash on dumervil. Why the Broncos wouldn't pay this guy $12M is beyond me, he's a machine.

TGIHF,

I don't think his logic is flawed at all. I agree with you we don't know what Tannehill is yet but Miami will never know unless they don't get him some guys who can get free, seperation and maybe take a simple 10 yard slant and go 50 plus. That will do a lot for Tannehill's confidence. Now I believe just adding Wallace won't make all the difference but it makes a big difference and is a huge start to what this team must do this offseason which is add as much talent around Tannehill as possible. Take a look at the top teams around the league and the QBs have multiple guys that can make plays and multiple skill sets as well.

Andy, definitely on board with Eifert in the first as it stands right now. before the pro day results come in, I'm thnking it's either him or Xavier Rhodes at 12 and given the depth in CB in the draft, I'd lean towards Eifert.

Certainly Mike Wallace will help the Dolphins. But considering the money that we assume it will take to land him vs other pieces that could be acquired instead, is he worth it? There are signs that Dolphin fans will be screaming about an overpaid Wallace in 2013:

TDs - tied with 5 others at #12-16 out of 105 ranked
yds/reception - 54th out of 105 ranked
YAC/reception - 45th out of 105 ranked

Well, the Fun starts at 12PM. See you then.

LOL, yeah I'm thinking Wallace is no more than 50/50. I will defer to you on S Peprah ... nto really familiar with the guy.

Andy, agreed with giving Tannehill weapons. Nothing is easy for the kid right now. Nobody gives him easy plays and yards. I thought the same watching them last year, it's like pulling a car up a hil with a rope and Phil Simms also echoed the same sentiments during a game too.

Say what you want .But,it is in Ireland's hand and from past season's he has played Billy Beane ball.He goes out and gets Brandon Marshall and then Bush. Only to dispose of them 2 years later.The last time I looked they're playmakers.Addition by subtraction method.Just think if we still had both and moving forward with an upcoming draft and free agent period. omg

Winston 3 mil tops....

Wallace 11 mil tops, 28 mil guaranteed..if he don't like it forget him...

very curious about the Woodson thing..i think he can help our secondary and team...4 Mil tops

any intrest in Levitre....he love that move...7 mill tops

Mark Toronto,

Yeah I heard it mentioned multiple games as the season progressed that Tannehill had to make perfect throws just for receivers to be able to make the catch cause there was little to no seperation. I remember Dan Dierdorff saying it over and over vs the 49ers that Tannehill will be a good one once he gets 2 or 3 more players to work with. That remains to be seen but we'll never know unless they get him that help.

I think its just a myth that Wallace is a one trick pony and can't catch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nMMrlfDPg

I imagine its just a bunch of bitter Steelers fans mad he is gone.

I would like to see 2 starting caliber CB's added and I don't want either of them to be named S. Smith.

I just read this on Monday Morning QB "Miami don't have much, if any competition for a big-money deal for WR Mike Wallace" according SI's Peter King

Andy, Peter King is a blob & usually wrong.

Vikings have no WR's on the roster & plenty of cap space. PFT rumors they are willing to spend up to $13 mil on Wallace & they're more desperate than we are.

Cleveland is also desperate for a WR & have more cap space than we do. There will be competition for his services.

Oh, and btw, rumor has it Harvin has a new deal in place pending a physical that would pay him $12 million!

1 thing is for certain, Wallace won't come cheap...for any team!

I really believe that no matter what Ireland does the haters will hate knocking everything.

Here is a 26 year old proven WR with upside that can stretch a DEF that came from a run first team in PITT. This offence will challenge him and make him an even better player. He will make everyone on Offense better.

It is a good thing for Ireland, that Philbin stated from his first day here his O Scheme; zone blocking, one-cut RBs, sure-handed receivers with YAC potential. Now, the Irishman has some direction.

LOL,

I'm sure that Wallace has more suitors then just Miami and I know money talks but think about making your life in Miami, Minnesota or Cleveland? Then think if all 3 deals are similar that Miami would give him potentially the most because of state tax. Also the last and certainly not the least for once Miami probably has the most desirable QB of the 3 to play with and that's saying alot. Cleveland is a team in flux and could bring in a QB, draft Geno Smith etc, Ponder is a dink and dunk and if Wallace cares at all about his play which I think he does and will regardless of getting paid won't fit well with a QB who's arm is Chad Pennington esque. Tannehill a widely unproven QB and this isn't up for debate but I'm hard pressed to think of a single person who doesn't think he will become a good player with the right talent around him.

Mr. Craig M & Mr. its just obvious,

Please note that Armando used the phrase "LOL" today in his blog. As you said yesterday, people who use it are aliases of YG.

Is it safe to assume you believe Armando, LOL & YG are all the same person? This is the myth you pushed.

Oh dear me, I used the word yesterday, I must be YG too.

Andy, I hear what you're saying. But, we all said that the last few years with Harbaugh, Manning, Fisher, etc etc etc.

I don't think the State income tax will matter much. As far as weather, obvously Miami has advantages but, Minn plays 9 games indoor on turf. There only cold weather games are potentially at GB & Chiacago.

Even the phins play more potentially cold weather games than Minn (Buff, NE & NY).

We'll see what happens but, with Harvin srumored to redo his deal at $12m per, it wouldn't surpise me if Wallace eclipses $13m.

Wallace doesnt bring as much as Brandon Marshall did. Marshall was doubled covered every play when he was going against anyone but Revis.

If the deal ain't done yet Ireland still has time to Eff It Up.

Fear Not, Lreland Fanboyz

LOL,

I understand the pessimistic view of the Dolphins free agency and coach courting but the 3 examples to me doesn't fly really. Even adding to that Ryan Clark which to me wasn't a huge deal. He's a good player but he wasn't a must have.

Harbaugh was using Miami for leverage all along. His home where his kids were in school, wife wanted to stay, etc were all like 20 minutes from the San Fran facilities.

Fisher's agent had ties with the GM or something like that and you can't tell me that didn't play a huge part in his decision with familiarity. Again Miami was the leverage.

Manning on the other hand was completely obvious. This roster had no talent and still has very little and not enough to compete. Wallace is a start!

But I agree with you that King is usually wrong for a guy who is supposedly such in the "know" and inner circles of football.

4 consecutive losing seasons is a great direction.

"Drafting Tyler Eifert in round 1."

Andy, I've been saying this all week. Glad I'm not the only nut out there. It is only a stretch if the kid sucks. If he is as good as most think he is, then he is a difference maker on this Dolphins offense.

Like you said, if we get Wallace to pull the saftey deep, Harline on the other side and Bess keeping the LBs in close, Eifert could be a huge addition, running the seam. AND the kid is one of the best blocking TEs in the draft too.

The hapless Fins should try BOGO for tickets next year to try and fill the stadium.

Let me get this right.

30 million for 2,700 yards and 6 tds good.

60 million for 4,200 yards and 32 tds bad

Yards are about doubled.

Tds are 5x more.

They both the same age and came in the same year.

Oh white people hate to see young blacks get money.

Get that money Mike.

Shut up.

He's not worth it.

Hartline was not worth it.

But most said good deal.

It's 1 td. 30 million.

It's alright cause it's all white.

It's a team sport so he can't do it by himself.

Marshall can't and guess what Brady and Rodgers couldn't either.

If we don't make the playoffs and Mike got 8 but Brian has 1 someone didn't do their job.

Guess who?

30 million for 1 td.
60 million for 8 tds.

Sounds like Mike is getting robbed.

Will waterboy Jeffy ask Wallace if his momma's a hooka?

Ferg,

Yeah I just look around and the playoff teams seemed to have so many ways to hurt defenses. Some less then others but the top offenses all had a variety of playmakers.

Baltimore - Boldin, T. Smith, Pitta, Ray Rice, even Jacoby Jones and his speed and playmaking showed up.

San Fran - Gore, V. Davis, Crabtree and Kaepernick is a legitimate weapon with his legs.

Broncos - Decker, Thomas, Stokely very effective slot, McGahee when healthy

Pats - too many.

Falcons -Roddy White, Julio, Gonzalez.

We get the picture.

Wallace wont get near as many TD's with Tanny as he did with Big Ben. His production will drop off substantialy.

JUSTIN CREDIBLE,

I agree some white fans, media have a problem when athletes, particularly black athletes get paid but c'mon I don't think that's the case here. I've seen you on the blog so I know you are familiar with the haters on here. No matter what Ireland does he is damned if he does and damned if he don't until Miami wins and then they will say it was in spite of Ireland or something to that effect. And the Tannehill haters on don't have any perspective on what he had to work with in year 1, etc.

I think race sometimes plays a part in this blog but not this time bro. It's just typical blog haters.

I'm not saying Wallace will or won't be a star but to say what he will and won't do is just stupid and assinine. But I will tell you Wallace is:

1. An upgrade and the best WR on FA for a team that needs WRs to develop a young QB
2. Faster then fast
3. Adds a dimension this team doesnt have and hasnt for year.
4. Young and in entering the prime of his career at 26
5. a playmaker

Justin, that post at 10:20 was just retarded. Only an idiot would bring race into this equation ... wtf dude??

And who said Wallace was a one trick pony? Oh his coach. Well I youtubed him last night and he is a lot more than that and so much more than Hartline. Go YouTube him and tell me he's a one trick pony. He's tough he goes across the middle. He makes guys miss. You see he's doubled and still make tough catches. Go ahead YouTube him

Wallace has hands of stone (so catches with body) , has a route tree of slant, deep and deeper, won't catch over the middle (except slant), is a tedious diva and clearly not a Top10 receiver. Not even best on Steelers. So, of course, media is ginning up the inevitable long term blunder by Ireland. His last.

Comparing the production between receivers on the Dolphins and Steelers over the past four years is almost as stupid as your racial comments.

WHY TEXAS A&M DE #94 D. MOORE. HIS PASS RUSHING ABILITY. BENCH PRESSING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ART OF PASS RUSHING SIR. ITS AN ART. TACKLING IS AN ART. REGGIE WHITE BECAME THE BEST PASS RUSHER IN NFL HISTORY BECAUSE HE HAD MARTIAL ART ABILITIES UNDER HIS GARMENT SIR. STRENGTH CAN COME LATER.

NFL experts know that Hartline would've had more TD's with a better QB and that Wallace wont be near as productive playing with Tannehill as he was with Big Ben.

FOLKS, YOU CANT JUDGE A PLAYER BY HIS YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHTS!! ITS HIGHLIGHTS!! DUUUUHH!!!!

Mark:

Look at the facts.

Numbers are not lying so what is it?

Either Hartline doesn't deserve his money or for 1 td or it's balance because Wallace doubled Hart line's production. And sorry race always has something to do with it. It's only been 40 years since we got a voice in this country.And way to many died for it.

Yeah Mike get that money.

So YouTube him. What you got to lose. However I think you're wrong you can tell a lot.

YouTube Wallace. Then YouTube Hartline.

I bet you can see the difference.

Dolphins on NFL NETWORK in 2 minutes.

Man i hope players don't read this garbage on this blog!!!

y did welker sux as a phin and is an all pro w. ne.?
hmmmmm?
lmao

I wish I could watch TV.

At least I have my cell.

Waiting for our time.

I really think this is it.

where's duh,
he'll tell u.
lol

In the words of John Wayne,"You can't fix stupid".

Watt.

Good argument.

How come rice was a pro bowler with 4 different qbs?

Wow Justin, you say this in the same country where Tiger Woods and Michael jordan were the two most commercially celebrated athletes of our time. if you want to look at facts ... anyway I'm not interested in that conversation since i'm neither white nor black nor an athlete. Doesn't pertain to me. I just want the best team possible for the Miami Dolphins.

I don't ever post on here but it is JUST INCREDIBLE that a fool has to bring race into everything!! We have black coaches, QB's and a black President yet my Black friends still cannot get beyond race. Lets keep this about football please. Mike Wallace is what he is and the market will decide what his services are worth.

Wallace would be a great addition. Period. As others have said, if ALL you're looking at is TD production (which is hardly shabby in his case) then you are missing the boat entirely. A lethal deep threat like that helps everything else on offense become more effective--including the run game by preventing defenses from stacking so close to the line of scrimmage. C'mon, guys. That's Offense 101 that you should have learned years ago.

HOWEVER, all that said there IS a financial line Miami should not cross. If the Vikings or whoever greatly exceed that number, then let them have him. It's fine to go after the occassional premier FA but the best teams are not built following that path and do NOT wreck their salary caps just trying to appease their fan base. Miami has the money to make this work but if it gets ludicrous, they should back away.

My hunch is that they get Wallace at the price they have set (which nobody here--including Armando--truly knows).

Dolfan,

if you thik upper body strength has nothign to do with playing end, then i don't know what to tell you.

And your buddy Reggie there got a bunch of sacks using his unreal upper body strength and the fact that he was agile enough to play end at almost 300 pounds (combining athleticism with unreal upper body strength). Look at how many sacks he accumulated with a straight bull rush - nothing fancy about Mr. White...pure power

Mark

I agree. Nor was I trying to start a conversation about that.

Painful memories.

By the way, the reason some people are alluding to Wallace having to play outdoors in Minnesota is because that WILL be the case.

The Vikings are building a new stadium on the site of the Metrodome. They are slated to play the 2014 and 2015 seasons outdoors at the University of Minnesota while itn is under construction.

Ireland has been accused of racism.

Chris, are you saying u know more than Philbin and Sherman?
Philbin admitted he watched tons of tape on Wallace and he loves him.
And please don't blame everything on Tannehill. Its not his fault Hartline can't track the ball at times. His head spins like a windmill with the ball in the air.
Wallace is dynamic. Even a blind man can see that.

Greg:

You're black friends? Lol.

Why wouldn't you just say your friends.

Truly sad that you don't get it.

Anyway moving on.

Wallace is no BEAST!

Mike Wallace is not worth being paid one of the highest WR's in football. He doesn't even have that great of hands. Ask the Pittsburgh fans...i'm from the pittsburgh area and i can tell you 'Steeler Nation' is glad he is leaving! They loved him there but, they know he's not worth that kind of money and anyone who pays that kind of money for a guy that has speed is gonna get burnt on the deal.

Draft a quality WR in the first or second round and go after a Danny Amendola/Brandon gibson type that will not break the bank! We have a lot of holes to fill and 12 million is too much too spend on one guy. Didn't we learn that with Brandon Marshall a few years ago!?! Hell i'd take Marshall over Wallace any day of the week in fact...and HE WOULD BE CHEAPER TOO.

Great teams are built in the draft...didn't some kid from Iowa state or somewhere like that just run a sub 4.2 last week??? why not draft someone like that in the late rounds if you wanna try to stretch the field???

Nice try Justin but Im black!!

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