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What Wallace brings and what that's worth

So what is Mike Wallace worth to the Dolphins?

That's a question the Dolphins have been trying to answer for weeks since they identified Wallace as first a possible, then a likely, then a full-fledged must-have addition to the team.

We'll have an answer within 24-48 hours as free agency kicks off at 4 p.m. this afternoon and that signals the mad dash to get Burnell Michael Wallace II to put his name on a Miami Dolphins contract.

The deal is not done, contrary to a report yesterday. Indeed, after that "report" reared its head, I texted multiple team sources to see if it was true. "LOL the media," is one answer I got, which made fun of the report and reporter.

But if (I emphasize if because nothing is done until it is done) the Dolphins do land Wallace, what are they likely to pay and what are they likely to get for the price?

Let's start with performance. Remember that Nick Saban was fond of saying that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the best predictor of future production is past production.

In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?

Well, consider that the Dolphins as a team threw 13 touchdowns passes in 2012 and suddenly those eight TDs per year from Wallace are looking mighty valuable.

Now, how did Wallace come by those numbers?

There is a theory afoot that Wallace benefitted greatly from the fact Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a champion of keeping plays alive and thus giving Wallace more time to get deep, get open and get the ball for explosive scores.

There is, admittedly, something to that. There's no denying Roethlisberger had something to do with Wallace's success and if the wide receiver's next quarterback doesn't play as well as Roethlisberger has, Wallace's statistics are likely to decline.

But ...

Notice that Wallace averaged eight touchdowns the past two seasons and averaged eight touchdowns over his career, as well. The player is nothing if not consistent in that regard. And that must therefore take into account that Roethlisberger missed games last year and Wallace still produced.

I also must point out that the Steelers' offensive line has been leaking sacks and hurries the last couple of years. That team has been unable to produce either a consistent running game or been exceedingly good in pass protection. So yes, Roethlisberger is a magician keeping plays alive but that's because he has to be.

A less magical quarterback with a solid offensive line providing decent time to throw can accomplish the same results, assuming the QB has good vision downfield and is accurate.

So production is not, or should not be a question mark for this prospective free agent wide receiver.

That begs the question how high will the market allow Wallace's price to go?

Remember that Dwayne Bowe recently signed a five-year, $56 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That averages $11.2 million per season and surpasses the five-year, $55 million deal Vincent Jackson signed last year with Tampa Bay on a yearly average basis. Jackson's deal averages out to $11 million per season.

But's it's not just the overall money and average that are important. Indeed, the guaranteed money is the key.

Jackson received $26 million in guaranteed money. I believe that is the figure Wallace wants to beat along with the per year average.

I would expect Mike Wallace will get a five-year deal from whatever team he signs with and he'll be shooting for $12 million per season, as I've reported before. Depending on whether there is competition or not for Wallace will determine if Wallace hits that $12 million per year but he will certainly reach at least $11.5 million per year.

And that $57.5 to $60 million contract must come with between $27 to $30 million in guaranteed money.

Whopping numbers, to be sure.

But, barring new factors being uncovered between now and 4 p.m., that's going to be the cost of adding 8 TDs and 1,014 yards to Miami's passing offense. That's going to be the vicinity for signing Mike Wallace.

Comments

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ohhh and damn proud!!


I'd rather we boughtin Gibson and/or Amendola for the right money and invested more on defensive backs. If nothing else if we invest in 3 or more playes rather than one its weasier to drop the failures and keep the successes. If Tannehill isn't going to be elite the Wallace money will be in vain, whilst if we spread it around the whole team can get better.

Having said that, Wallace will be productive and wouldn't it be good to see a winning Dolphins team for a change? Tannehill will improve and is actually very mobile, he may keep plays alive ala Roethlisberger. Still, Wallace might appreciate actualy knowing with some reliability when the ball is likely to leave the QBs hands before he runs his routes and Tannehill was pretty good at the deep balls last year (for a rookie).

If you were designing plays for the Dolphins, why would you want a Mike Wallace to be going over the middle all the time? It's a dumb argument. Draft Cordell Patterson, sign Gibson. Then you have the best receiving corps in the league. From worst to 1st.

ARENT YOU DOLFANS TIRED OF BEING CHEAP? ISNT IT TIME TO SPEND THE MONEY AND GET BETTER PLAYERS? GEEZ!

The whole race argument is ridiculous.

His black head coach basically knocked him calling him a 1 trick pony.

So, is it blasphemous or racist for a white person to say the same things?

Just absurd.

The Dolphins spend up to the cap limit every year....spending is not the issue. The issue is spending on the RIGHT players.

Is it just a coincidence that neither Mr. M & Mr. obvious are here? It surely looks suspect when neither are here at the same time both they are always here at the same time.

It appears he plays the same game as Mr. YG. You decide!

THE DOLPHINS WERE WAY BELOW THE CAP LAST YEAR.....AND THE YEAR BEFORE. DO SOME RESEARCH BEFORE YOU SPEW NONSENSE.

Here is my observation....this is a football blog....namely for the Miami Dolphins...race...who is posting under what name and personal attacks are for a different blog.....just my OBSERVATION!

The Dolphins were a little over 5 million below the cap last year....I do need to do research I know the numbers without running to google to look.

ROSS WONT EVEN PAY FOR A DECENT GM!

Criticize Ross all you want (I have, too) but he is NOT cheap.

Fans who say that istantly identify themselves as totally clueless.

A bit off topic but am I the only Dolphins fan who rates Fasano?

He was joint ninth in TDs (5, to Cooks 4) amongst TE's last season on a dolphins team that was 26th in pass yards/game and 30th in pass TDs. He's 28 so should have 3-4 more years of production, he can block, has only fumbled twice in his whole career and is considered a complete TE by Profootballfocus.

In an improving offense it isn't unreasonable that Fasano will be more productive during the next few seasons whilst a good blocker/check down option would be useful for all those deep pass plays to Wallace...

TE is not a huge need for the dolphins regardless of how much Mando goes on about it. Tyler Eifert at 12 is a reach, especially given the current state of our defensive backfield.

I for one don't attack anybody however I will never say that its not a racism when we needed the Rooney rule to get black coaches.

Greg

Being black and proud means nothing if you still need to define you and your friends as such.

On to football.

I would like to fill a giant ceramic tea cup with 8,533 tubes of Burt's Bees Honey Lip Balm and then disembowel a flamingo in front of horrified residents in a nursing home.

This is my guess on the offseason based on what has already happened for my fins

Resign- Starks (franchised), Hartline, Moore

Let walk- Long, Bush, Smith (all players are seeking too much money to be resigned)

FA- WR- Wallace (hate to say it looks like he will be ours I woulda went with Jennings but I am not upset about the signing at all.

OT- KC Wintson- Our new RT

TE- Martellius Bennett- seam threat and a good blocker

Draft-
1st- FSU CB Xavier Rhodes

2nd- ND TE Tyler Eifert (yes I think he drops this much and most mocks have Ertz ranked higher)

2nd- FIU S Johnathon Cyprien (the playmaking S we need)

3rd- ALA OL Barret Jones (can play all spots on OL)

3rd- Texas AM WR Ryan Swope

Rest BPA

My wish list.

Wallace
Keller
Bennett
Jennings. He will be the only reason we shouldn't draft a wr.
Long back. I got his Jersey.
ED Reed or Woodson
Sean Smith. He plays big guys really well.
Houston for the other side.

bk,

I love your scenario but many of those guys would have to drop. Xavier Rhodes is a reach but I would not mind reaching for him a bit since we are so thin at CB.

I really like Swope but the latest he will go is 3a to us and that is questionable (he had an amazing combine and has moved up in the draft). I really like Barret Jones but I can't see him not going in the 2nd round.

I would love to see you scenario play out though 4 of your 5 picks would have to slide down a bit but you never know.

Maybe I'm asking for to much but I think it's possible.

If they don't re-sign Fasano, that means they have their sights on 2 TEs, one in FAgency, one in the Draft.

JUSTIN CRIDIBLE,

The cap is not 200 million. Some of those needs have to be filled through the draft.

That is a dream team you put together though. The fins would have to cut a lot of players or restructure a lot of deals.

Bk

I'm feeling that too.

It would be nice if it plays out that way.

You never know in the draft.

Pete, Fasano isn't all bad but in this O system, a TE needs to be more athletic. Look at V. Davis, J. Finley...those are the types of TE's you want in this system. Guys that can get down the middle & occupy a safety. Fasano occupy's a LB.

He's a good blocker but, he is a FA & I'm not sure you're going to overpay him in Free Agency to stay.

I'd prefer to sign 1 of the good TE's (Cook or Bennet) & draft a youg kid to be a #2. Maybe, if Egnew could develop, that would be better but, not likely.

Orlando

Lol I know.

I just think most players are not going to get what they feel they're worth on the market.

Many teams are strapped for cash and selling while we are buyers.

But Jeff is in the hot seat. He has to go hard or go home

Anytime soon, Teams in need are going to be cutting or not re-signing Players left and right. They need to be under the cap Today, by 4PM. This situation, never before seen.

Hey, LOL @12:02PM, I said that before you(as always happens).

Oscar, congrats! You just realized that like many others, I rarely read your posts.

But you read it now, didn't you?


LOL,

Good points, particularly the need to occupy safeties. However, if we can resign Fasano on the right contract, along with Egnew and clay, I'd rather invest money and picks on other positions of need and look to TE after Egnew and clay have had another year to prove themselves.

Unless, of course, Ireland think's one of the TE's in this draft is a another Jimmy Graham (especially if he see's him in the 3rd round).

Sam Sheilds received a 2nd round tender. I think Pitta received the same.

I'm a big fan of trading draft picks for established players. I wouldn't mind giving up both our 2nd rounders for both these guys. Especially Shields. A good corner and only 25!

That would be a wise use of draft capital.

Low ball Wallace.
If your plan was to build thru the draft stick to the plan and just admit it.
Dont go all out for another 3 years when Brady retires

Aloco says Mike Wallace is past his prime.

Sorry bub, you definitely don't know much about football.

Let the price for wallace go up.. get gibson and welker and be done with the WR core. gibson and Welker would be a few million more than Wallace.

Pete, unfortunately, I don't see much long term potential in Clay or Egnew. Clay is consistently inconsistent & if Egnew couldn't play last year on a team so desperate for weapons? I think the position needs a complete overhaul.

I don't think we're going to pay Fasano what he wants and relegate him to a #2 TE. I don't think he's worth the money.

Pitta is an option. So is the other TE on Baltimore Dixon. If not, sign Bennet or Cook & draft another kid.

LOL,

I'd take Sam Shields for a 2nd rd pick too. Pitta - his rookie contract ends shortly so he will want to be paid. You'd have to be sure he was better than anything at that pick in the draft.

Live coverage of the Elderly Pedophile Convention in Rome right now.


Low ball Wallace.
If your plan was to build thru the draft stick to the plan and just admit it.
Dont go all out for another 3 years when Brady retires

Posted by: me | March 12, 2013 at 12:20 PM

Lowballing Wallace would be wise if he didn't have other suitors willing to pay his price & he would be a luxury signing, not a need.

Tanny cannot go another year with another subpar supporting cast. Investing in a QB was step 1.

Investing in the players to help him be successful is step 2.


LOL, you might be right RE Egnew and Clay, if so its a shame.

Here's hoping that in the 2nd year of Shermans Offense and with an improving Tannehill, they can prove us wrong.

Otherwise yes, Cook or Pitta might be the answer, so long as we don't priorities either over getting more help at CB or safety (shields or woodson).

Pete, to be honest, I'm a little shocked they only tendered Shields w/a 2nd round pick. That is a price I'd glady pay for a young ascending player at a position of major need.

He's only a couple of years older than most rookies & already experienced. If I'm Jeff Ireland I'm all over him.

FIN4Life...from the last blog....

I suggest you STICK to football...cause when it comes to 9/11...you are as IGNORANT as they come...

LOL, if it wasn't going to be Minnesota, it was going to be someone else. I knnew not to trust these done deal reports. How many of these have we seen before only to be left holding our dikks? I'm still upset over the Harbaugh miss.
Posted by: Mark in Toronto

first of all welcome to free agency... nothing new ... And we never missed on Harbaugh! he was going to the 9'er the whole time. that was why he left college ball .. because he decided he was going into the NFL and was going to coach the 49'er ... sure the GM and Owner flew out to try to get him and change his mind. But it didnt matter he decided on the 49'er when he decided to leave college ball... NO OTHER TEAM WAS GOING TO GET HIM!
a miss is when you have a chance to get somebody and they go somewhere else. only the 49'er had that chance with Harbaugh bottomline

bBtw, the info about Shields comes from Shefter on twitter.

LOL, interesting discussion i had with Dashi a few days back. We were talking about how I like Eifert and consider him at #1 but then he told me how Egnew had better athletic metrics coming out of his combine. I found that extremely hard to believe but I went back and checked it out.... he was right. Egnew is as athletic a guy playing TE as there is in the NFL. Well, behind Vernon Davis but right there with Jimmy Graham et all. Made me reconsider the guy and give hope that maybe ... just maybe there might be something there.

However, I would still approach free agency and the draft like we need guys there. And if Egnew steps up .. then there's room for him.

"In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?"
===================================================

That's more than Hartline. But Hartline got the big deal because we had to have him. You lobbied for Hartline right? But now call Wallace UNIMPRESSIVE?

Keep it classy, Mando. Don't go homer before free agency actually starts.

Fasano is probably the most underrated TE in football. He doesnt have lightning speed but can run routes, catch the ball, and block with the best of them.

I WOULD TRADE FOR MORE DRAFT PICKS AND SELECT TE TYLER EIFERT (NOTRE DAME).
====================================================

Unfortunately, I would trust you with those draft picks MORE than Jeff Ireland.

Mark, I know Egnew's athletic but, he apparantly is dumb & soft. If that's the case, it's over for him before he begins.

I did say however to try to draft & sign a TE. As long as we have 2 reliable options at TE, I discard Mastrud, Yeatmen etc... and give Egnew a chance.

Give him through camp to show something. If not, at least you covered your bases with a FA & a pick. Everyone else becomes expendable.


interesting discussion i had with Dashi a few days back. We were talking about how I like Eifert and consider him at #1 but then he told me how Egnew had better athletic metrics coming out of his combine.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | March 12, 2013 at 12:38 PM
-------------------------------------------------------

Sounds like real 'edge-of-your-seat' stuff.

Fasano is also a great team guy and great to have in the locker room...

jeffrow, yes in hindsight Harbaugh wasn't coming here but I was on this blog that day and remember the reprts flying around. Several had us with harbaugh in hand making him the highest paid coach in sports. I was a huge Harbaugh fan while at Stanford and knew he'd be the next great coach. To hear these reports and then not see it happen upset me ... that's why i won't listen to these Wallace is a Dolphin reports.

I hope the Dolphins don't get Wallace. He's not worth the kind of money being talked about. Welker is the much safer option. If "the best indicator of future production is past production", then Welker is a better choice.

Thanks for the good, non belittling, non condescending & non accusatory discussion this morning!

REFRESHING! LOL

I'm gonna head out before that train pulls into the station though. Enjoy the start of FA! Might be back after it's "officiallY" under way!

The way Ireland drafts, wouldnt we be better off trading draft choices for established players?

You don't have to double cover mike wallace. You have to play back and off coverage. That doesn't open you running game if a defense does that. Yea he fast but you guy acting like he is FTL (faster than light). You can't expect one person (WR) to be enough..... why I wanted Jennings with the promise of being cheaper

LOl, I'd handle the TE position the exact same way. God bless them but yeatman and mastrud, etc should not be earning NFL salaries of any kind.

WOW, first time I felt like this, Its like picking candy in a candy store.

Oh, wait...

And we are with Ireland, aka the dentist making our choices.

I am excited yet terrified this all could blow up.

Early reports are that both Egnew and D Thomas may not make the opening day roster.

Posted by: Jcb | March 12, 2013 at 11:24 AM


You have to have the treat of it. You can't just have him run goes all day. Most points in the NFL come from over the middle.

mesmerized, maybe if i jab my pecker in your eye hole, you might be a little more entertained?

Watch something besides the ball folks. 3 big Free Agent signings coming for the Dolphins

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