« Smith, Long not necessarily gone from Dolphins | Main | Free agency kicks off and Wallace has the ball »

What Wallace brings and what that's worth

So what is Mike Wallace worth to the Dolphins?

That's a question the Dolphins have been trying to answer for weeks since they identified Wallace as first a possible, then a likely, then a full-fledged must-have addition to the team.

We'll have an answer within 24-48 hours as free agency kicks off at 4 p.m. this afternoon and that signals the mad dash to get Burnell Michael Wallace II to put his name on a Miami Dolphins contract.

The deal is not done, contrary to a report yesterday. Indeed, after that "report" reared its head, I texted multiple team sources to see if it was true. "LOL the media," is one answer I got, which made fun of the report and reporter.

But if (I emphasize if because nothing is done until it is done) the Dolphins do land Wallace, what are they likely to pay and what are they likely to get for the price?

Let's start with performance. Remember that Nick Saban was fond of saying that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the best predictor of future production is past production.

In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?

Well, consider that the Dolphins as a team threw 13 touchdowns passes in 2012 and suddenly those eight TDs per year from Wallace are looking mighty valuable.

Now, how did Wallace come by those numbers?

There is a theory afoot that Wallace benefitted greatly from the fact Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a champion of keeping plays alive and thus giving Wallace more time to get deep, get open and get the ball for explosive scores.

There is, admittedly, something to that. There's no denying Roethlisberger had something to do with Wallace's success and if the wide receiver's next quarterback doesn't play as well as Roethlisberger has, Wallace's statistics are likely to decline.

But ...

Notice that Wallace averaged eight touchdowns the past two seasons and averaged eight touchdowns over his career, as well. The player is nothing if not consistent in that regard. And that must therefore take into account that Roethlisberger missed games last year and Wallace still produced.

I also must point out that the Steelers' offensive line has been leaking sacks and hurries the last couple of years. That team has been unable to produce either a consistent running game or been exceedingly good in pass protection. So yes, Roethlisberger is a magician keeping plays alive but that's because he has to be.

A less magical quarterback with a solid offensive line providing decent time to throw can accomplish the same results, assuming the QB has good vision downfield and is accurate.

So production is not, or should not be a question mark for this prospective free agent wide receiver.

That begs the question how high will the market allow Wallace's price to go?

Remember that Dwayne Bowe recently signed a five-year, $56 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That averages $11.2 million per season and surpasses the five-year, $55 million deal Vincent Jackson signed last year with Tampa Bay on a yearly average basis. Jackson's deal averages out to $11 million per season.

But's it's not just the overall money and average that are important. Indeed, the guaranteed money is the key.

Jackson received $26 million in guaranteed money. I believe that is the figure Wallace wants to beat along with the per year average.

I would expect Mike Wallace will get a five-year deal from whatever team he signs with and he'll be shooting for $12 million per season, as I've reported before. Depending on whether there is competition or not for Wallace will determine if Wallace hits that $12 million per year but he will certainly reach at least $11.5 million per year.

And that $57.5 to $60 million contract must come with between $27 to $30 million in guaranteed money.

Whopping numbers, to be sure.

But, barring new factors being uncovered between now and 4 p.m., that's going to be the cost of adding 8 TDs and 1,014 yards to Miami's passing offense. That's going to be the vicinity for signing Mike Wallace.

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Cleveland is also desperate for a WR & have more cap space than we do. There will be competition for his services.

Posted by: LOL
=======================================================
LOL, The Dolphins have not been good but for Wallace to be willing to play for the Cleveland Browns they would have to offer $25M LOL No one wants Cleveland, no quarterback, the weather sucks etc...The Colts are a more realistic possibility. Reggie Wayne is getting older.

Mark,

I personally don't put much stock in the Combine. AND, Egnew WILL get his chance this Pre-Season to prove he's not a bust (regardless of what we do in FA/Draft at TE).

With those 2 things said, what did you see out of Egnew in Pre-Season (the only glimpse any of us really got of him)? Did he run well? Catch the ball well? Forget blocking, we know he can't do that, but to his supposed "strengths", did you personally witness any of them?

Because I didn't. He seemed slow to me, didn't seem like he had particularly good hands. I'm not dismissing him outright, I'm just trying to see where this "upside" is that others here seem to think this player has (based on what I've seen with my own eyes).

I like Kim Kardashian for wide receiver, she catches every body's balls.

Hey, the Browns beat us the last 3 times we played.

Calvin Johnson Stats first 4 years in league:
270 Rec, 4191 YDS, 33 TDS

Mike Wallace Stats first 4 years in league:
235 Rec, 4042 YDS, 32 TDs

SO, do not discount what MW has done since entering the league and what he may be capable of in the future.
Remember, if secured it is up to Philbin and Co. to improve his game and incorporate the skills he currently brings.


mesmerized, maybe if i jab my pecker in your eye hole, you might be a little more entertained?

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | March 12, 2013 at 12:51 PM

==================================================

With "little" being the operative word here.

It's been way to long that I been this happy about our team.

Really we can't do wrong.

If we miss on Wallace and Jennings that money goes to top free agents any way which will still boost our team.

And we get rookie wrs.

Jeff can't do wrong this year.

Shule no doubt that they will both have to show something next year. No free rides in the NFL. Draft position gets you maybe one year grace and that's it.

Please do not make fun of the Catholic Church during this important time.

It is important for me to believe in death cults based on fairy tales and run by elderly pedophiles.

Thank you for understanding.

Mark

Pecker? Really?

And you going to put it in a guys eye?

Post of the day

DC, we may disagree on the merits of the combine and pro days but personally I think you draft the best combination of athlete and production. I think we all agree on that anyway but maybe you disagree that the combine is the forum to display that athleticism ... I say, well, what else do we have? Everyone's on the same footing and those that are stronger, bigger, faster, more agile are the guys I want as long as they showed they can play in college. No system is foolproof but I think if you trust the tests then good thigns will happen most times.

Anyways .... Egnew seemed overmatched from the start but he did make one crazy catch in pre season ... unfortunately it was just one ... he has to catch up mentally I think. Just pray the bulb goes off for this guy because if it does then he's one serious weapon.

Really, can we please stop with the Catholic bashing ... I mean we don't put up with anti-semetic bashing or bashing of anyone's race, creed, or culture here .. it's a football blog. leave people's beliefs alone ... man ...

The Dolphins had an excellent WR and let him go. Yes I'm talking about B.Marshall. So I don't see all this excitement about acquiring Wallace. Ireland should be more concerned in having a good draft. This is his last call.

bidniss, wasn't Calvin Johnson 21 when he got drafted though? Wallace had a couple of years on him I believe.

And Justin, sorry but sometimes the dregs of this blog drag me down to their levels.

Mark...

AGE??? really....REALLY????

its about skill @ that level..not AGE....

Mark,

I do agree on your point about getting a mix of athleticism and production.

My gripe on the Combine is while it DOES prove some players' worth (i.e. Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, etc.), it completely deceives on others (i.e. Clyde Gates). If Gates never flashed his speed without pads, not covered, we might never had made that fateful mistake.

I think the best part of Combine/Pro Day is the interview, being able to speak directly to the player. Other than that, it's just as much a curse as a gift.

Rookie to year 4....

Thats all that matters....

MarchCool an excellent WR at dropping TD passes!

Kris, don't really agree.

I mean if a 21 year old put those numbers up and a 23 year old put up the same numbers, well I'm inclined to be more impressed with the feat of the 21 year old.

2 years is a hige difference at that age.

I mean, are we really going to have a Mike Wallace v Calvin Johnson debate???

See, Gonzo coming back to Atlanta. Apparently, didn't get what he wanted.

DC, I do agree with the points you made and those small school guys like Clyde Gates are hard to gauge. I mean they show up at the combine and they are athletically on par or superior to their big school counterparts but they aren't battle tewsted I guess and that's hard to measure. So definitely there is some buyer beware with the combien results but taking a guy like Gates with a 4th rounder is worth gamble. For every Clyde Gates, there's an Antonio Gates or Johnny Knox that pay off.

A lot of it is sheer luck that the guy you take with the right tools also has the toolbox.

I went through the combine results are there are some guys with excellent measurables ranked in the late rounds ... I'd love Miami to take a chance on some of them like they did with lamar Miller last year even though the rest of the league passed on him three times.

I was not all in on Wallace (becuase of the price); however, now that it is just about emminent, I am willing to accept it and hope that his play fits the price. Last years numbers do not seem to match the pay day he is going to get (836 yards and 13.1 avg); this are hardly numbers that say you should be paid as the 3rd highest in the league. To put it in perspective Davon Bess had 778 yards in just 12 games and he had a rookie throwing him the ball. Davon Bess makes 2.2 million a year.

All that being said, if Wallace comes in next year and has 1200 + yards, 10 TDs, and 15 yd avg then it would be worth it. We'll have to see what he can do without Big Ben. Either way I will support the fins.

SO who is on the PhinCopter watch Armando?

We might be under intermittent cyberattack in the next days. Just had a power outtage and Explorer and Yahoo home page went out of commission temporarily. btw, We know who you are.

No Mark....won't debate Wallace V Johnson....

Like I have to tell Craig M. sometimes...there is no debate...

however....I think there is relevance in rookie production over age production...inexperince is inexperince...

Is Wallace Really worth the money? Theres other receivers not far off of Wallace's numbers. Wallace costs to much money, or tie the money with performance. 35 mil is a lot of money to guarantee if he blows out a knee. jeffery go find someone else.

MIAMI DOLPHIN NBLOG PLEASE TELL OF WHO THE DOLPINS HAVE SIGN TODAY?? I bct no tv ESPN and do not see this hapening drft also later did they get WALLACE or the player they want?? after words also do they have to put thrid players on thre feld for work them out on the times? is JEFF IRELAND on radio or some one unsally can get on my computor

Can't get into Phins.com or ESPN. Anybody here with the same problem?

Jimmy: I get the feeling if you tried to order a cheeseburger at McDonald's you'd wind up with a fish sandwich.

WTF are you trying to say?

It is already 7 p.m. in London and Paris. They already know if we signed Wallace.

Did you just compare me to Craig??? Hahaha, anyway ...

I don't know Kris, can't really say I agree. To me there still is a difference between a 23 and 21 year old even if they are both rookies. Now comparing a 23 year old rookie to a 3 year vet 23 year old isn't fair either so on that end I will not say age is the pre-dominant factor.

But 21 year old rookie v 23 year old rookie, tie goes to the younger rook.

Funny, Jimmy, funny.

AR, you signing the cheque?

irecorn will f it ^.wallace 2 minny lol

I DONT KNOW WHY YOU SAY I WENT O MCDONALD RESTARANT BECAUSE I DIDNT GO THERE TODAY ANY WAY! it is from I haev no tv today so ESPN on there and didnt see who the DOLPHINS far agencvy if they got WALLACE because I seen here yentr that was the player also if JEFF IRELAND on radio now saying what theydo now??

^^^^ ^^^^^^ ^^^, for you, Yes?

Those Italians are at it again, beating the Dominican Republic 4-1 in the WBC.

So yes Oscar, as you can tell, I can get into ESPN.com

"Lucky" you, Canadian.

It is time for the Dolphins to rise from the ashes. They have been humiliated and been burnt to the ground. Out of the ashes rises the new. It all starts with Mike Wallace today. A new beginning starts today for the Dolphins and for me. With this rebirth comes a new team and a new name. As of today, the Phoenix has risen.

I believe the local and perhaps even the national media has spun this who Mike Wallace issue to a frenzy. I am 100% certain the Miami management is far less consumed and obsessed by the acquisition of Wallace then is being portrayed.
Miami has likely purposed the best contract they are comfortable with. I'm certain they would have left a bit more room for guaranteed cash in case of a bid-off for Wallace. But I don't buy into the idea that Miami management has become a bunch of "Glazed over eye, sold out, make or break, end of the world time bomb" attached to the rest of they're history or lack thereof.
There has been too many strikes against them to allow the team to descend into a "Wish for the best" mentality. I actually take exception with some of what I have heard and read. It seems to reduce itself into a no win, no matter the outcome situation.
Watch and see... If Miami does NOT acquire Wallace for whatever reasons. Ireland will be blamed and ridiculed for being unable to close a major free agent deal. It Ireland does close the deal, cynical and hard to please fans will take exception to the numbers and if Wallace was REALLY worth it.
I'm sorry, but more then ever, this off season has become the place where Miami truly cannot win. Even when matters go they're way. And I lay that fact squarely on the Local Beat writers. The people who are paid to spin news... and are paid to find fault then wait for the perfect opportunity to pull a "Jack in the box".... "Gotcha!!!" Question and and answer period by weeks end.

Like I said, there is no winning in the stands or news, winning will need.

It would be fruitless to ask the local news guys to back off on the apocalyptic language until Wallace has landed. But chances are about the same for that as they are for everyone to agree about Wallace.

Armando,

The numbers that you have quoted are insane. This guy showed last year that he is selfish and immature. Give someone like that 50 million dollars and you have a 50 million headache in your hands.

Right on, Troop!

I was about to ask Mando what/if he had heard what the walk away money was for Wallace. But I just heard Jeff Dalington say they would pay whatever it took. What say you Mando?

Troop,

I agree the media wanted a story that they can use to beat up on Ireland and get fans to react. For example, if the Vikings come in at 17 Million a year and Ireland says no thanks, folks like Armando will start writing the stories about the Ireland failures and dumb fans will start reacting. No one gives Ireland credit for not paying Flynn or Orton, those were great non-moves by Ireland. You cannot just blindly compromise the franchise to please fans and the media.

Darlington......typo

You live, off the The Life of Others, you fukkkking Parasite. Yeah, I know, Life is short.

Stephen Ross, the worst owner ever?

Oh, cocoajoe!

In the spirt of the Conclave let us reflect on the peace & civility this blog exhibited today.

Then realize how it came to pass. It's because the 2 biggest psychopathing trolls are not here. Craig & Yesterday.

This is not a coincidence, it's a fact. Please help me to support the new Pope & a peaceful blog without those 2 blabbering idiots.


Peacefully yours,

Who is going to pay $ to watch Ross's garbage team?

One hour 15 minutes till the Fins start to become a force to deal with. The end of the losing, the end of he frustration. This is the beginning, just like all those years the Pats were awful. Then came that one year with cap mony and picks. Get ready Miami

I don't have time to worry about jelly today.

Black smoke coming from the Vatican and the Jets and Knicks still blow.

Vikes cut A. Winfield clearing millions more in cap space! Look out Miami fans, the Vikings are coming hard at Wallace. Miami may be left twiddling their thumbs again.

Spielman has Ireland shaking in his booties! If Miami doesn't land Wallace, things are going to get real ugly for Ireland. I know many fans don't want Wallace but, if this was their target & they fail again, it is NOT good! As sad as it is, image means something & the image is that top players don't wanna play here!

FIRE IRELAND NOW!

LOL, there are reports out there that the Vikes are circling Domenic Cruz ...

spielbergman gonna f it right up ires corn.
lol. hartline the # 1 with his 1 td all season.
lmao
tannehenne gonna suxx.

only wade and lj can lure his axx down to camp davie.

Watch something besides the ball folks. 3 big Free Agent signings coming for the Dolphins
Posted by: Omar Kelly | March 12, 2013 at 12:54 PM

Ummmmm..you suck...

Mark, if that's true, great. Would make sense to take the 1 from Harvin and get Cruz. But, they cleared about 14 million by trading harvin & cutting Jenkins & Winfield. That sounds like Wallace type money as Cruz wouldn't command that much.

But, if they are going after Wallace & get him ahead of us? OUCH!

Almost everyone acknowledges Wallace is the guy Miami targeted from day 1. If we can't get him after not getting other players & coaches before, then MAYBE, we have to accept that top players really don't wanna play here for whatever reason.

We'll start to know in the next few hours.

« 1 2 3 4 5 6 »

The comments to this entry are closed.