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What Wallace brings and what that's worth

So what is Mike Wallace worth to the Dolphins?

That's a question the Dolphins have been trying to answer for weeks since they identified Wallace as first a possible, then a likely, then a full-fledged must-have addition to the team.

We'll have an answer within 24-48 hours as free agency kicks off at 4 p.m. this afternoon and that signals the mad dash to get Burnell Michael Wallace II to put his name on a Miami Dolphins contract.

The deal is not done, contrary to a report yesterday. Indeed, after that "report" reared its head, I texted multiple team sources to see if it was true. "LOL the media," is one answer I got, which made fun of the report and reporter.

But if (I emphasize if because nothing is done until it is done) the Dolphins do land Wallace, what are they likely to pay and what are they likely to get for the price?

Let's start with performance. Remember that Nick Saban was fond of saying that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the best predictor of future production is past production.

In the last two seasons, Mike Wallace has provided the Pittsburgh Steelers an average of 68 catches per season for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns.

Unimpressed are you?

Well, consider that the Dolphins as a team threw 13 touchdowns passes in 2012 and suddenly those eight TDs per year from Wallace are looking mighty valuable.

Now, how did Wallace come by those numbers?

There is a theory afoot that Wallace benefitted greatly from the fact Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a champion of keeping plays alive and thus giving Wallace more time to get deep, get open and get the ball for explosive scores.

There is, admittedly, something to that. There's no denying Roethlisberger had something to do with Wallace's success and if the wide receiver's next quarterback doesn't play as well as Roethlisberger has, Wallace's statistics are likely to decline.

But ...

Notice that Wallace averaged eight touchdowns the past two seasons and averaged eight touchdowns over his career, as well. The player is nothing if not consistent in that regard. And that must therefore take into account that Roethlisberger missed games last year and Wallace still produced.

I also must point out that the Steelers' offensive line has been leaking sacks and hurries the last couple of years. That team has been unable to produce either a consistent running game or been exceedingly good in pass protection. So yes, Roethlisberger is a magician keeping plays alive but that's because he has to be.

A less magical quarterback with a solid offensive line providing decent time to throw can accomplish the same results, assuming the QB has good vision downfield and is accurate.

So production is not, or should not be a question mark for this prospective free agent wide receiver.

That begs the question how high will the market allow Wallace's price to go?

Remember that Dwayne Bowe recently signed a five-year, $56 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That averages $11.2 million per season and surpasses the five-year, $55 million deal Vincent Jackson signed last year with Tampa Bay on a yearly average basis. Jackson's deal averages out to $11 million per season.

But's it's not just the overall money and average that are important. Indeed, the guaranteed money is the key.

Jackson received $26 million in guaranteed money. I believe that is the figure Wallace wants to beat along with the per year average.

I would expect Mike Wallace will get a five-year deal from whatever team he signs with and he'll be shooting for $12 million per season, as I've reported before. Depending on whether there is competition or not for Wallace will determine if Wallace hits that $12 million per year but he will certainly reach at least $11.5 million per year.

And that $57.5 to $60 million contract must come with between $27 to $30 million in guaranteed money.

Whopping numbers, to be sure.

But, barring new factors being uncovered between now and 4 p.m., that's going to be the cost of adding 8 TDs and 1,014 yards to Miami's passing offense. That's going to be the vicinity for signing Mike Wallace.

Comments

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LOL, Dont forget they are trying to re-sign Loadholt who will cost 8-9 mil a year

harbaugh broke back wallace = f u ross ire miami.
lol

+ fisher.
lmao

I heard Loadholt is as good as gone. It will be interesting to see what the Vikes are doing. They are certainly making things interesting to say the least!

They've cleared ALOT of cap room the last 2 days & have no WR's worth noting on the roster. I think that's the direction they`re headed.

I think the priority for them is the same as ours. Equip their young QB with weapons.

better resign bush. at leat he got 6.
lol

lets c if tannehenne changes #'s.

Burress gone now like Boldin, any white smoke on Wallace.

what did clark say 'bout irecorn 2 wallace.?

Victor Cruz bailando salsa en el sun life stadium
azuquitar

wallace + cook or suxx again.

Miami radio QAM says the believe Wallace, Cook and Woodson will be the 3 signs for the fins. If that is true, great FA.

white smoke, HoHo!

LMAO. Just got in and read that Buffalo GM Buddy Nix AND the GM for Tampa Bay were tricked by two college kids and Nix devulged information about the Bills while the two kids listened in to a phone conversation between the two GMs that they themselves set up wiothout the gms knowledge.

What an embarrassment. Nix publicly stated that Fitzpatrick better restructure his deal or they don't know what to do with him because they can't affordto pay 10 mil a season for a qb who will be fighting for a back up position.

I immediately thought about Ireland and the backlash he would receive if he had ever been this stupid. I guess other GMs make mistakes too.

By the way, what hapopened to the mighty Bills? Remember before last season how all of the writers were saying we would be in the cellar looking up at the Bills and Jets because our offseasons didn't go as well as theirs? Remember the contention that they had now found their franchise QB? Remember how Sanchez was supposed to fight Brady for the AFC east because "he's been to two afc championships" (yeah, on his defenses backs).

WTF happened? HAhaha

LOL, I don't care if we get Wallace or not ... there's more than one way to skin a cat. The season is far from over if he signs elsewhere.

"What is it with Mando's love fest with this guy?
Fellas, trust me on this one."

Are you an NFL GM, coach, scout, assistant, commentator, player, or media member? If not why are we trusting you when you don't know squat?

Just saw an update from John Clayton on my phone to not expect alot of action in restricted FA, especially Cruz.

I gotta say when GB tendered a 2nd rounder for S. Shields, I thought this was the ultimate oppourtunity. He's only 25, his best years are in front of him. Miami's biggest need right now is WR & Cb so he fills an immediate need.

If Ireland was going to sign a FA CB to big money, offer it to Shields & hope GB don't match it. Cough up the 2nd rounder & get a potential probowl type player for it!

I am grateful that even though the next Pope will probably be guilty of helping pedophiles and child abusers excape prosecution that he will at least not also have a past as a member of the Hitler Youth.

That's progress!

Phoenix, that would be a mammoth splash. MAMMOTH!

Phins, I hear Buddy Nix on the radio quite a bit up here since the same company that sponsors the Bills in Toronto series also runs one of the two big talk radio statsions and he comes off as a complete gomer. Not hard to bleieve a 17 year old could trick him.

YG, we posted at the same time! LOLOLOLOL

I wonder if this will dispell the rumors to the troll about us being 1 in the same?

NOT ON YOUR LIFE!

Wait a sec, Yesterday's HERE 4ever? Holy Smoke...

LOL, interesting to note rotoworld thinks Cary Williams will only get a one year $4m deal from someone ... uhm we should give him way more to come to Miami ..

The people who are paid to spin news... and are paid to find fault then wait for the perfect opportunity to pull a "Jack in the box".... "Gotcha!!!" Question and and answer period by weeks end.

Like I said, there is no winning in the stands or news.........

Posted by: It's in the Breeze, Troop! | March 12, 2013 at 02:15 PM
===========

Unfortunately, you couldn't have said it better.

It's the nature of the Beast! Conversely, these media types have to walk a fine line, or they risk being "Locked Out" by their respective clubs.

Thank God for the latter. Can you imagine how devious they would get otherwise?
=========================

SIDENOTE: Remember Folks, Wallace(or Jennings, Gibson,etc, etc...)will be just one small part of the larger whole.

In other words, don't let the "Free Agent Freenzy" and all these gigantic contracts skewer you're perspective!

Bottom's Up!!!!

Mark, I hear ya. I want Wallace but, if someone outbids for him, they can have him. I don't think he's worth the money he'll likely ask for but, in FA, you always wind up overpaying.

Just not thrilled with the thought of Jennings as a fall back option. With Ireland's track record with WR's, at a soon to be 30, Ireland will be left having to find another one to replace Jennings in a few years & he doesn't have anywhere close to the explosive ability of Wallace.

here we go fellas, only 10 mins

It appears Revis' presence has disrupted the whole CB FA Market.

Ten minutes until the start of free agency. Are you freaks rubbing baby oil on your weenies in anticipation?

WE MUST get Cook or else the groceries go back to Parcells.

LOL, I think you are right about Shields. 2nd rounder when we have 2!! Do we pick which 2nd rounder we have to give up, or does it have to be ours and not the pick we got from Indianapolis?

Mark, I would give C. Williams a 4 year deal with $22 guaranteed but I'd rather cough up a 2nd & give S. Shields a 5 or 6 year deal with $40m guaranteed though!

Hell, try to snag both! Draft a safety from a deep safety class & WHAMMO! Theres your new secondary.

YG, we posted at the same time! LOLOLOLOL

I wonder if this will dispell the rumors to the troll about us being 1 in the same?

NOT ON YOUR LIFE!

Posted by: LOL | March 12, 2013 at 03:47 PM

===================================================

Except that it was from a poster called 'Yesterday's HERE 4Ever.'

Just adds fuel to the fire.

LOL, good plan, RDubs, has to be your own ...

I like Fire.

Rdubs, compensation was set at a 2nd round pick. I don't think it matters whose it is I don't think. A 2 is a 2. Even if it does matter, give them either or! Shields is a good young player & a positon of major need.


Except that it was from a poster called 'Yesterday's HERE 4Ever.'

Just adds fuel to the fire.

Posted by: you're inept | March 12, 2013 at 03:55 PM

And you're a conspiracy theorizing waste of blog space.

See how easy that was? Hit the bricks troll boy!

wallace 2 miami.
minny will take 2 wr's in rd.1.

Getting called into a conference call now at 4. Of all days at all times ....

Its just a call mark. Have your phone with you!

shocker gonzalez came back. knew he wouldnt retire. now we have to cover him again this year

Poor S. Smith, Nmamdi getting cut by Philly.

There is a GLUT of FA Cb's available, not to mention Revis floating around.

be interesting to see what way pats go welker, amendola, or cruz

LOL, with a computer and an I Phone or an I Phone and an I-Pad or any combination, you can easily post at the same time. Not fooling anyone.

By the way inept @ 3:55, Mark in Toronto HATES YG. Never saw him say a kind word to him! Have you?

Yet, I've been talking phins all day w/him without incident? Do you REALLY believe I would actually talk to him just to put up this silly charade you idiots think is going on?

Get a clue buddy! It's quite apparent you've never been accused of being smart. Now, please go back to your uneventful day!

Broder, must be an absolutely crazy time for all GMs with these late Player releases by Teams.

Fasano to Chiefs. Loadholt resigns with Vikes

Phoenix, you too moron. You can think of any stupid concoction in your head that you like. You're wasting whatever precious brain capacity you have.

You should spend it more wisely than you're doing now. You just look like a fool.

I walked out of here 2 months ago and I told you losers I would come back for free agency.

I'm Baaaaaack!!!

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Dolphins are negotiating a five-year contract with free agent Mike Wallace.
Schefter describes the deal as "very, very likely to get done." So we may not see the Vikings jump into the Wallace sweepstakes after all. Schefter reported that this is a "match waiting to happen," and the money will be "well north" of $10 million per year. Appearing on NFL Live Tuesday, Schefter also confirmed that the Dolphins are in hot pursuit of free agent TE Jared Cook.
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
Mar 12 - 4:03 PM

Good!!! Pay the man. Pay Cook too. We Need Playmakers!!!!

Let the games begin!!!

Now there is a rumor Miami pursuing Cook!!

Chiefs and Fasano a done deal per KC radio station 810 WHB. Mike Devito formerly of the Jets also signed with KC.

TE now goes from needed upgrade to arguably the #1 position of need. Would be shocked if a TE or two isn't part of the free agent haul.

WES WELKER MAY BECOME A DOLPHIN IF GREG JENNINGS DON'T SIGN WITH MIAMI. BRANDON GIBSON MAY END UP WITH NEW ENGLAND.

NFL: AroundTheLeague@NFL_ATL
Per @AKinkhabwala, Mike Wallace will be a Dolphin by the end of the day as long as doctors clear him #FreeAgency

YES YES YES
WELCOME WALLACE TO THE DOLPHINS

Aditi Kinkhabwala@AKinkhabwala
Told Mike Wallace is getting his physical in Miami right now. If all goes well, signs point to him signing today.

Jeff Darlington@JeffDarlington
Mike Wallace is indeed on the verge of becoming a Miami Dolphin, I'm told. He's taking a physical. The sides have reached an agreement.

NFL: AroundTheLeague@NFL_ATL
. @JeffDarlington reports Mike Wallace has reached agreement with Dolphins. Roughly $30 million guaranteed. Bam. #freeagency

Where'd everybody go??

WE LOST FASSANO

TWO # 17 ON THE TEAM

Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter
Chiefs reached agreement in principle on a four-year deal with former Dolphins TE Anthony Fasano.

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