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Dolphins move on Albert should depend on details

Sometimes the devil is in the details and that's where the Dolphins are with Branden Albert.

As multiple media sources reported Wednesday, and as I reported on this blog on March 22, the Dolphins are considering making a trade for the Kansas City Chiefs franchise player.

[Update: John Clayton of ESPN is reporting the Dolphins have been given permission to speak with Albert and he'll visit the Dolphins and take a physical soon. Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald is reporting the sides are talking contract.]

On its face, the idea makes sense.

The Dolphins lost left tackle Jake Long to St. Louis in free agency. The club has a need and coach Joe Philbin didn't exactly endorse the idea of Jonathan Martin as his starting left tackle when he discussed the issue last month. The Dolphins also had a price point for Long and they have not used the cap space that was intended for Long on anyone else.

So the team can afford to sign Branden Albert and believes Albert to be a left tackle upgrade over Martin.

But ...

The devil is in the details.

The only way this trade makes sense is if the Dolphins do it in conjunction with another trade and only after Texas A&M left tackle Luke Joeckel comes off the board on draft day. That's right, this trade only makes sense if Joeckel isn't available because if he is on draft day, the Dolphins look like fools.

Consider:

If Joeckel goes No. 1 overall to Kansas City, then the Dolphins can be certain the best LT in the draft is gone and they move on. But if KC picks Eric Fisher and Joekel drops to No. 3 or No. 4, the Dolphins must, must, must try to trade up to get him. That move would be expensive in that it would require a second-round pick and other considerations. But it makes more sense than the Albert trade because that also will require a second-round pick plus a more expensive contract than Joeckel.

And Joeckel, unproven in the NFL as he is, is probably going to be a better player than Albert.

So the Dolphins would be going for a better player (Joeckel) using basically the same draft pick compensation (well, maybe more expensive but only slightly) and pay a lower contract in the transaction.

So if the Dolphins don't wait for draft day to make this Albert trade, they're not really thinking through all the contingencies. And if Joeckel then falls, the Dolphins will look downright foolish.

Then there is this:

Even if Joeckel goes No. 1 overall as expected, the Dolphins can simply trade a No. 2 for Albert, but they would still look kind of silly. You see, why pay a high draft pick and a big contract to Branden Albert when you could have had Jake Long for the big contract and kept the pick?

You mean to say the Dolphins played hardball with Long only to cave on Albert?

I understand Long is seemingly diminished and often injured. Trust me, I made the point here many times. But Albert comes with no guarantees, either. He basically had a very good season in 2012. But it was only good enough for the Chiefs to want to trade him. He's been injured during his career. He's struggled with weight issues. He was a turnstile in 2009, giving up nine sacks.

And, again, the Chiefs are willing to let him go so they can draft a rookie to play the same position.

So it's not like Branden Albert is a slam dunk worth-it move.

This is where the devil has to be in the details.

If the Dolphins pay Albert as much as Long got in St. Louis, they look dumb. If the Dolphins get Albert for much cheaper, they still have a find a way to recover that second-round pick they still gave up for him.

And how do they do that?

Well, here is my perfect scenario that would prevent me from thinking the Dolphins got ripped off on getting Branden Albert. If the Dolphins trade away their lower of two second-round picks for Albert and then trade down from No. 12 overall to a lower pick in the first round while then pickinng up a second-rounder for the move, I'll be straight. I'll be good.

The haul would then be a lower first, Albert (albeit at a big contract) and two second rounders for all those moves.

The trade down would mitigate the sting of giving up a second for Albert because it recovers a second-rounder for the trade down.

By the way, if the Dolphins somehow end up giving Albert more money than Long got from St. Louis, something is significantly amiss because even with his multiple injury issues, Long was still a better player than Albert when healthy.

All this has to play out.

The devil will be in the details.

 

needs to be part of another draft-day trade down

Comments

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We Need Playmakers,

Right on bro! I got some back up now lol.

Albert would fill a huge need with a proven player. You say you don't know how good he is and neither do I fo that matter. I know that sites like Pro Football Focus and Bleacher report break this stuff down and heres the breakdown: (It's not concrete but what else as fans with no access to game film to we go off of).

Bleacher Report Breakdown:

Brandon Albert rated 13th best LT which is slightly off my estimate as a top 1/3 LT but barely off. He rates 45/50 as a Pass Blocker, 32/50 as a Run blocker and 77 overall. He allowed just 1 sack in 13 games played last year. Strength is a pass blocker and Run blocking he gets sloppy with coming off the ball high.

Jake Long rated 23rd best LT which is a shade off of being a bottom 1/3 starter last year. He rated 35/50 in pass blocking, 30/50 as a run blocker and 65 overall. The site points out time and time again that IF not for injuries he may be able to get back to form. That's a big "IF"

kc loves fisher and if they keep albert they will def draft fisher and put him at rt

Texas, yes Mingo is very talented. I'm high on him too. However, as I said yesterday, I take a DT who is lethal in rushing the passer over an edge rusher who gets 10 sacks every day. Star gets compared to Kevin Williams a lot. I take Kevin Williams every day of th week @ 12. The guy was just plain dominant ...

Or Dts are good but offer nothing in the pass game. Star (or Sheldon) offer something we don't have and that's pressure up the grill.

"Albert's one of two things:

A headache waiting to happen OR

A diminishing asset, who's going to be overpaid.

Either way, I wouldn't be interested."

Craig,

Really??? There's no way he can be a solid LT for the next 4-5 years. Glad you can see the future. LOL!!!

Jake Long was a diminishing asset which is why he's no longer a Dolphin but for some reason you can't seem to grasp that. I'm not saying that I advocate trading for Albert but I'd certainly defer to Philbin when it comes to O-lineman instead of spouting my own bullsh#t.

WNP, Fisher and Lane Johnson are my favourite prospects in this draft. However, I wouldn't trade up for either. I see Cooper, Eifert, Sheldon Richardson, and Star Loutlelei as equally good prospects. One of them will be at 12 and offer every bit the impact.

no way on star, took a year off of fottball and almost didnt even comeback. takes plays off all the time. no need for him. u take milner if he drops or trade down

WNPs,

What's the problem this morning bud?

'spouting my own bullsh#t'? Why? Because it doesn't agree with your opinion? That's convenient!

Yeah I see Albert at the kind of money he'd be making and his age the wrong way to go. I'd rather draft one of the kids, even if that means trading up.

And your problem with that is what?

DC....

I respectfully disagree...this ain't yo daddy's NFL anymore....

Do you believe we will be able to afford Pouncy when his contract is up....if (pouncy) manages to stay helathy...he gets "franchised"...if he becomes injury pprone...he goes the way of Jake Long....

The days of OLs staying together for a decade are long gone....you have about 3 years to win the SB with the players you acquire....after that....its turn-over city....and time to start again....

And I 'can't grab the idea that Long was a diminishing asset'? HUH? Are you following along? Did you not read my comments to Mark above?

For the hundredth time (for your sake), I have NO problem with what the Dolphins did with Long this offseason. Got it?

dey be making a run this season fruitcakes,
ba is part of it so ziiiiiiip it.
lol

Kris @9:47am,

I gotta disagree with your comment to DC. Did you see the contract the Niners just handed out to their RT. Seems to be they're taking the approach that keeping the line together matters. Is it the RIGHT approach? Time will tell.

Who am I to argue? I'm expressing an opinion....same as you and everybody else here.

And of course I have no idea how Joeckel and FIsher will turn out but I like them a whole lot more as sure things than some of the guys being proposed in the 2nd or 3rd round as LTs. I see going that route as a complete waste of a pick, IMO.

Craig,

I honestly don't know which is why I say let's trust our HC who made his bones from being an O-line coach. I'm sure he has a plan & he knows what he's looking for.

Don't like the idea of trading for this guy. They have enough draft picks to fill the holes, if the top OTs are gone @ 12 take a G/S/CB/TE/DE (BPA) then get an OT later on.

Or go the stop gap route (Winston/McKinnie/etc). Perhaps if they can get Albert for a 3rd and view it as a rental it would work.

Mark, Long was a good player, but at this point he is somewhat of a gamble (not that anybody is a lock), but if the Dolphins did resign him and he went out again they would look pretty dumb. Almost a no win situation, but the path they took at least has less risk.

schedule comes out tonight! how many prime time games u think we get? ill go one mon and one thurs

disagree kris, teams like balt,pitt,ne,giants,etc keep there core together for quite some time.

WNPs,

My problem isn't so much with Albert the player as it is with what he'd be making and what the alternatives are. So I think this is much more than just 'can the football player play'? It's about how does this set us up for the next 4-5 years. If the team thinks the Albert move is the best way to go then fine, but it's not the way I'd go about it.

we can usually improve trading with bal, ne, den, atl, sf.. does it work with kc oak jac?
how many year must we overpay albert?
it's better give kc 12,42,77 for 1 pick instead give kc 54 pick + 20million guaranted to albert
and we coulg give 12,54 for 6st pick e.g. to have a best and not averpay ot than albert.
if ireland will fail, we'll have no money next year to rebuild

albert taking a physical for fins as deal is getting close to being done. looks like balt opens season at denver on thurs

yes i know watt, listening to fans complain right now on radio about the whole deal here in kc

Only Get him For a 4th round,and no overpay him!

WNP, Fisher and Lane Johnson are my favourite prospects in this draft. However, I wouldn't trade up for either. I see Cooper, Eifert, Sheldon Richardson, and Star Loutlelei as equally good prospects. One of them will be at 12 and offer every bit the impact.

Mark,

If we stay at 12 we're still going to get a very good prospect. Will he be an elite prospect??? No but 'elite' doesn't exist in this draft. That's not to say that no one in this draft will become an elite player, I'm just saying as prospects. There could very well be a Clay Matthews (could be Damontre Moore or Jarvis Jones) who wasn't an 'elite' prospect that became an elite NFL player.

Miami Is Done With The Big Contracts . Team Will Be Build Through The Draft

I think we get one Thursday night game....I wish we would get all Sunday 1 pm games though.

Armando,

All live you have been telling us that 1st round pick should be used for a skill position and that OL did not score/prevent points and now suddenly you tell us that our 1st pick should be used in a LT?

Come on!!!

I only see value trading-up for CB Dee Milliner but just if hes available after 5 pick.
I prefer the scenario to trade-down and have 2 picks instead of one (One in the 1st round around 15-20s and another one in the 1st round 30s or 2nd round 10ths) and used that picks on CB Washington's Desmond Trufant/TE ND's Tyler Eifert and next pick on G North Carolina's Cooper/S Cypien. I think Martin will be fine (not great) as LT...he was basically the bodyguard of Stanford's QB Luck for 3 years! Give the boy a chance!

Craig M...

I didn't see it...I will have to look it up....

Dusty....I agree on 2 of the 3....

but lets not forget....the 9ers JUST got good....

trade all but done. lets hope mia gives him something like a 3 year 21 mill deal

keep us posted dusty.

kudos 2 irecorn. woooooooooooooooow
lol

with millner being injured many have him dropping right into our laps

Albert is set to make just under $10m this year only because it was a RSA deal. The Chiefs declided to lock him up at that was the set formula output. Similar to what Fins had to pay Starks.

But in negotiating with Albert the Fins should pay him like a top 10 tackle not a top 5 tackle. Also, keep in mind that Avg Salary Per Year vs. Guaranteed Average Salary are different things entirely. He only 'cashes in' if he plays really well.

build through the draft...

This is just an idea of why Miami needed to severely upgrade not only the receiving talent around Tannehill but also the 5 guys blocking for him.

Jake Long ranked 23rd out of 35 qualifying LT's in the league last year.

LG Richie Incognito was ranked 22nd of 70 qualifying Guards which is respectable.

C Mike Pouncey ranked 2nd in the league which is awesome and it's obvious how great of a player he already is.

RG John Jerry ranked 48 of 70 which is right around bottom 1/3 with everyones boy Jake Long at his position.

RT Jonathan Martin simply pathetic he was 34 out of 35 qualifying RTs. He needs to get better, stronger, etc, etc, etc. In all fainess he was a rookie though.

Trade a 2nd for Albert and draft Warmack!!!

WNP, that's the nature of every draft. One big reason I don't believe in trading up unless it's for a QB. You never know how things shake out. That being said thoguh, I don't like moving down for more picks either. It seems like the Steelers never make draft trades and they've won more Super Bowls than anyone.

1. Long sucks and has for 2 years.
2. Martin is a very good player but can't play both sides at the same time.
3. Yeatman is better than Lane and just as athletic. Why trade up for Lane.
4. Neither of the tackles rated 1 and 2 in the draft have proven they can block in the NFL.
5-20. It's only money! Our owner has plenty! Give up the second or third pick and go into the draft a whole team looking for PLAYMAKERS!

What's the problem this morning bud?

'spouting my own bullsh#t'? Why? Because it doesn't agree with your opinion? That's convenient!

Yeah I see Albert at the kind of money he'd be making and his age the wrong way to go. I'd rather draft one of the kids, even if that means trading up.

And your problem with that is what?

Craig,

You're misunderstanding what I was saying. 'Spouting bullsh#t' was not reserved for you. I meant that for myself as well.

Look...If you want to draft up to take one of the kids then great but it's going to cost us. I love Fisher just not at the expense of trading away multiple picks to get from 12 up to 3. If LT was the last piece of the puzzle then I'd be on board but this team is still more than one good player away. Protecting Tannehill is essential but I'm just not sold that Joeckel or Fisher are our only two options.

My problem isn't so much with Albert the player as it is with what he'd be making and what the alternatives are. So I think this is much more than just 'can the football player play'? It's about how does this set us up for the next 4-5 years. If the team thinks the Albert move is the best way to go then fine, but it's not the way I'd go about it.

Craig,

Fair enough. I just think it makes sense to consider ALL of our options.

Posted by: dadsmithwest | April 18, 2013 at 08:05 AM
—————————————————————————————————————
"Hell they ought to give us a draft pick for solving their biggest problem." Love it!!
Dadsmithwest for GM!

albert is very good fellas and established. go get him.

Martin, 34th out of 25 RTs and people honestly want to try him at LT??? That's freaking insane. At least you can hide him at RT, at LT he will be exposed time and time again.

Dusty..where are you reading/discovering all this info on a deal for Albert?

I think you're putting way to much emphasis on the offensive line.

I still believe the biggest need for Miami is defensive end; a sack specialist. Of course, if there is no one worth taking at 12 for DE, then by all means trade up and get an O-tackle. But without a compliment to Wake, the lack of pressure will highlight the secondary issues and keep the offense off the field anyway.

. Mike Pouncey guarantees 1,300 yards for Lamar Miller

"According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics, Albert has allowed fewer sacks and fewer combined quarterback hits and hurries than both Ryan Clady and Jake Long over the past two seasons.”

Andy,

I like Warmack and Cooper as much as anyone on here but lets not forget Samuda. He was a rookie last year but was extremely good. I have a feeling that we already have Jerry's replacement in house.

I still feel this draft's first 3 rounds should be all about TD's and Turnover's.

Depth in all the later rounds.

Mike Pouncey guarantees 1,300 yards for Lamar Miller
Posted by: 2 watt | April 18, 2013 at 10:14 AM

=======================================================
That's nice ....wish he was picking my horses for me...

its on 810 radio here in kc right now. heres the only thing ive found online about it so far http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/jason-la-canfora/22092061/dolphins-interested-in-chiefs-ot-albert-then-could-target-cb-in-draft

Albert and Clady were locked into RFA deals this year which had to pay $9.8m each for 2013. That doesn't mean that is what they will get go forward on average.

Top Five LT's by avg annual salary

Peters, Eagles, $12.8m
Thomas, Browns, $11.5m
Ferguson, Jets, $10m
Clady (TBD but fits in top 5)
Williams, Redskins, $10m,

LT's 6-10 by salary

Brown, Texans, $8.9m
Long, Rams, $8.5m
Okung, Seattle, $8.1m
Beatty, Giants, $7.5m
Staley, 49ers, $7.2m

Bushrod just signed with the Bears for $7.2m avg per year and guaranteed $2.3m.

I see Albert in the Okung, Beatty, Staley, Bushrod level of play. So, that is why I think the Fins can realisitcally sign him for $7m-$7.5m avg per year.

Oh..some radio guys are tossing it around.....based on some we have here , that doesn't give me much reason for optimism..

WNPs,

I don't believe it's accurate to say 'there aren't any 'elite' players in this draft'. I believe there are. It's just not readily apparent WHO those 'elite' players are right now. My money would be on Joeckel, Fisher, Wammack and Cooper but that's nothing more than a guess. Could be one or more of those guys become busts. It could be a guy like Austin or Eiffert or one of the pass rushers. We just don't know. That's what makes this draft so tough. But I expect when it's all said and done there will be some elite talent.

how do you figure, Long is a better player than Albert at this stage?

One team went after long in FA, The Rams.

Long, has been inconsistent and unreliable the last few years. His athletic ability has diminished quite a bit.

Toronto,

Exactly! People have these grand ideas like "Move Martin to LT, Play Garner at RT and Jerry is improving and Pouncey and Incognito and then your line is set and just draft all playmakers".

I mean the numbers by Bleacher report I provided aren't set in stone but they give you a fairly good idea of how a player is performing. Tannehill had arguably the worst weapons to work with and a very average to below average offensive line as a unit most weeks, also no wonder the running game dissappeared from this offense for weeks at a time.

Tannehill recipe for success:
1.Fast WR who gets seperation - check
2.Improved depth at WR - check
3.Pass catching TE who can beat a LB one on one - check
4.Better Oline - Add Albert he's an upgrade over that stiff as a board injury prone Long and draft Warmack or Cooper @ #12

been trying to tell them bobby, this kid can play. a 3 year 21 mill deal would be beautiful

I would say the same thing about fisher. I think fisher is just as good as joekel.

Kris, you're right things changed with FA and the new CBA. It's a new world. But some things don't change in the game. I'm not talking about keeping an oline together for a decade. But we haven't kept one together for even 3 years. That round robin won't help the offense.

As far as Pouncey, we'll see, but I don't see him going the way of Long. Do Centers risk injury as much as LTs? And will he want to get paid next contract, yes. But he'll be one of he vets then, and so we'll be able to afford him if we don't have FAs on that unit we're paying huge contracts to.

Final thoughts on the Albert opporutnity....after weeks of calling for the trade.

1. He is a top 10 talent and I really think he will be healthy and capable of high end play for 4-5 years.

2. Giving him $7m to even $8m is a fair NFL competitive salary for a top 10 LT talent. If he demands more let him stay with the uncertainty of the Chiefs go forward. But I think he will 'lock in' with the Fins for a 4-5 year deal at an average of $7.5m per year.

3. Giving up the second 2nd round pick is not too much. I'd love to see if Ireland could get away with paying a 3rd. Not very likely though.

4. This allows the Fins to remain in the 12th spot and gives them flexibility in round one.

4a. They can stay pat at 12 and have potential access to high caliber players like Warmack, Cooper, Eifert and possibly Star.

4b. They may be able trade down and stay in top 20 picking up another 2nd or 3rd round pick. They could likely get Vacarrao, Trufant and possibly Eifert.

5. They would still have at least one 2nd and two 3rd round picks to address some key needs and likely find some starting level players at G, DE or CB.

All of this sounds good to me. I am on the record pushing for Albert. If they land him and he fails I'll fall on the failure sword. But if they land him and he succeeds I'll be looking to a few of you for the same.

Why draft a guard at 12? John Jerry had a pretty good season last year. He's in involuntary workouts and has been all in attitude wise... I don't see a need at G. OT yes but we have guys that can compete. Yeatman and Garner are serviceable and to be safe draft an OT in rd 2-3... simple. OL doesn't have to be drafted in the 1st rd every year. J Martin was a steal in the 2nd. I don't see how there'll be 10 OTs drafted in the 1st. There will be options in 2nd.

Andy,

The problem with the Bleacher report for OLine is it does not take into account that RT had the worst weapons to work with. This has a direct correlation to sacks, pressures and the run game.

The idea that we still need play makers is because RT had the worst play makers and we still have those guys. We just added 1 play maker is all. The Dolphins are not ready for prime time just yet. We still need weapons and having more weapons will have a direct affect on the OLine statistics.

Eifert or Patterson would be great adds to this offense...

Texas,

Im all for TDs and turnovers too but adding an elite talent like Warmack or Cooper would be very tempting considering the slam dunk that Pouncey has been in just 2 years. Pouncey was picked at 15 and according to many Centers shouldn't be picked at 15 and now Guards at 12 but thats hogwash to me. If a player has a chance to be dominant which Warmack certainly does and he's there @ #12, fills a huge need and is BPA, forget his positional value as a guard.

I would not make a trade for him. Makes no logical sense to me.

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