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Not a fan of draft-day trades but if you must then ...

You know how I feel about draft day trades? They have rarely factored to any large degree for the Dolphins, as I demonstrate in this column. They were meh before meh was a thing.

And I do believe if you read the column the proof is indisputable.

But personnel men being personnel men, they still think that despite the fact they bat .500 at best -- meaning they miss as a group on half their picks despite all their meetings and tape study and visits and workouts and interviews -- somebody is definitely going try to jockey around the draft board because he thinks himself smarter than everyone else.

So what's my prediction if the Dolphins end up doing that?

Well, while everyone is predicting a trade up because the Dolphins have assets move up if they wish, I see them moving down. That's right down.

Why?

Because if the Dolphins personnel department is smart -- and there are indeed some very intelligent people in that group -- somebody has recognized that there are not 100 percent can't-miss superstars in the top seven picks. Going up in the draft will offer some good but no truly amazing player this year.

The value in this draft, I've been told on multiple occasions by personnel men I speak with is lower in the draft where, they say, the 12th pick might not bring any better a player than the 15th-35th pick. In other words, a lower pick might get you as good a player.

If that is the case, then logic says trade down and augment your number of picks and thus your number of equally talented players.

Following that logic, the Dolphins should trade down in the bottom third of the first round and add another second round pick and possibly another later-round pick in the process. That way, instead of picking up one player at No. 12, you pick up two -- with the lower first-rounder and an additional second-rounder -- and those two players can have about the same value as the one player at No. 12.

Logical, yeah?

Obviously, the Dolphins have to find a partner willing to do that.

Look to the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers are a ready-made team. They are a player or two from winning the Super Bowl. Maybe they want the best wide receiver in the draft and the way to do that is to be at No. 12. They're also locked in a talent war with Seattle. What better way to get the jump on the 'Hawks?

The 49ers have the 31st pick in the first round and have two second-round picks, including No. 34 overall. If they throw in a later-round pick, I'd give them the No. 12 overall pick. (Indeed, they can keep their later-round pick for all I care).

Such a sceaniro would have Miami picking 31st in the first round, three more times in the second round and two more times in the third round. Six picks in the first three rounds in this draft is a treasure.

Now, all of a sudden, fake GM Salguero is adding perhaps OT D.J. Fluker or OT Menelik Watson if Fluker goes earlier. Now I'm adding cornerback D.J. Hayden at the top of the second round with San Fran's second-rounder and I can go chase Stanford tight end Zach Ertz or San Diego State's Gavin Escobar with the 42nd overall knowing that I've already filled my two primary needs. Or maybe Florida safety Matt Elam or FIU safety John Cyprien is the guy at 42.

And the Dolphins would still have another second rounder after that. Imagine?

The Dolphins worked hard to give themselves choices for the draft while operating in free agency. They should be smart and work hard during the draft to give themselves more choices during that very draft.

One way to do that is to trade down, the opposite direction of what most speculation out there has them doing.

If the Dolphins don't trade down and stay at No. 12, they're likely to look at Star Lotulelei, in part because he's a good player and not a reach at that spot. But will he be a tons better NFL player than any of the guys I just mentioned?

No one can guarantee that. And that's the point of trading down in this draft.

 

Comments

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only problem is eric fisher is cant miss and Oakland is desperate for a 2nd and fifth rounder. McKenzie says he is building through the draft. wala, you have a partner.

Trading down certainly would be a better option than trading up imo. The only player i'd want us to trade up for would be for Milliner but now that we've signed Grimes,i dont think that'll happen.

I think trading down to #31 (49ers) is actually quite excessive. We'd be better off trading back to someone like the Cowboys at #18 or the Vikings at #23/25 and yet still have a good chance of grabbing Trufant,Hunter or Eiffert.

Salguero that's why you're the man, I would trade with frisco or minny in a heartbeat no doubt about it !!

Well done Armando. I was thinking the same exact thing. It makes too much sense to trade down out of the 12th and stock pile more draft picks. You can easily grab an OT, CB, S and TE in the second round + late first rounder. OLB/DE and another corner in the 3rd.

Trading back to 31 is too far back for me. Trade with Dallas!

I agree that trading up in this draft doesn't appear to be a wise move but if we can't find a willing partner and stay at 12 taking Tyler Eifert wouldn't be a bad thing.He is the closest to a sure fire elite player you are going to find this year.

Draft value chart - #12= 1200 points #31=600 points #42=480 points - San Fran would have to toss is some more

I wouldn't trade down any further than say @ 20...netting the team a second or 3rd. By 31 most of the #1 prospects at every position would be gone. The real steal would be if you can trade back and still get one of those. Give me Lacy and a trade down and I'd be thrilled.

As long as they don't trade up I'll be happy. Gotta hang onto those 2 2nd rounders and 2 3rd rounders.

i disagree, trading down does NOT compliment the aggressive approach miami had just displayed in freeagency, if anything, miami should trade up for LACEY..one more big catch, one big fish, that's what a powerback like lacey can do for a team that had just re-energized it's fan base with a superb freeagency period...miami needs one more straw added to it's offense to break the camels proverbial back in new england, i say LACEY will be that straw, the hardest running powerback in the draft.

Been saying for a long time that building through the draft remains our key to the future. The FA market this year I hope did us some good (and few are discussing how important the LB picks will be). Trading up only makes sense if they feel there is a player that is truly a super PROSPECT (cause that's all they are) at a higher number that fills a hole for us for a projected (cause that's all it can be) for a few years. This will require us to also give up something else of important value and that is a difficult choice. Trading down in this draft, with expectations of a lot of good players in many of our areas of need certainly has been a option that makes sense. MORE, MORE, MORE!!! Just don't know if SF is the best option, since moving from 31 to 12 would require more than their 1st and 2nd if you consider the point totals of each of those. That would leave 120 points and, while SF had a LOT of picks, I don't know if they would either give up a few more (#97 is worth 112, #103 is worth 88, etc...) or throw in a player in a position of need for depth, etc. Maybe we'd take a good pick for next year to supplement the point total? We have a good set up for 2014 and can always continue to look to build. Whether SF, or another team, and unless the FO has a real LOVE for someone higher or at 12, trading down and collecting picks in this and/or next year's draft is a good consideration.

Would love to trade with Minn and end up with a big T.E. and Lacey. Trade up in the later rounds. Heck Banks could be around too.

If Eifert is the target, then you stay put. You can also trade down with St Louis or Dallas and you still might get him. There is a chance that TB (Dallas Clark was not resigned) or Pitt (Heath Miller severely injured himself last year) grabs him however. I would trade to #31 with SF if Eifert is not a target. Another second round pick from SF and boy, could they go nuts in the second round with those three picks.

Im loathing more and more the possibility of trading up. I hate giving up high picks. But, if Jeff feels the need to trade up, please dont give up any 2014 picks. I hate giving up future picks in moves unless they are 6th round or lower. I have swayed back and forth on this issue of trading up for one of the big three left tackles because Im one of the guys who feels that the LT/RT is our biggest issue right now. We can still draft a future LT/RT in round 2 and sign Winston or Clabo after the draft.

If I were GM, I would always take BPA or trade down. I would trade up if I had a super bowl ready team- a team like SF. A team like Houston. Atlanta did it for Julio Jones bc they felt they were close to the super bowl. You trade up only if you feel you are on the cusp of getting to the big one. I am a positive thinker and hope that the Dolphins play in the Super Bowl this year. Im a realist and figure they arent there yet- npo trade ups at this time!

Mando,

I Would Only Trade Down For A Future #1.

If The Experts And EVERY ONE AGREES, This Is A WEAK Draft.

Why Not Trade Down And Pick Up A Future #1?

Have 2 First Rounders Next Year. Next Years Class Is Loaded With REAL Talent.

The Fins Can Trade Down For The Other Teams
2013-#1
2013-3rd Rounder
2014-#1

And That Is A Team In The 20's.

A Team Like San Fran At 31 Needs To Give Up
2013-#1
2013-2nd Rounder
2013-3rd Rounder
2014-#1

They Have The Picks and Their #1 Pick is Almost Guaranteed To Be Low Next Year.

Trading Up?

Agreed. Riskier Proposition. But You Can't View Past GM History and Say Ireland Will Do The Same. Or Judge Mid round Trades With First Round Trades.

If The Fins Move Up It Is To Get That 1 Impact Player The Have To Have. LT!! Trade Up For L.Jockel.

Trade With Minnesota For 2-#1's.

Or Trade With Dallas For This Year and Next Year's #1.

Both Real Good Trades.

Or Trade Up With Oakland. That Trade Also Seems Logical.

DASHI--I don't think your pick math adds up in a way SF would bite--The options you suggest would likely all total more that the Phin's selection is worth. Reasonable to expect SF's 1st round will be low next year. Also fair to expect Phins position will be better than this year, dropping our own draft position point total. If we go by this year's amount, a 1,3,1 or 1,2,3,1 would be too much, maybe, for them to take. Trading with team with higher pick than 31 would be consideration and, of course, this math is like creative accounting around tax time--numbers can be played with in all sorts of ways.... Take picks, or Trufant Vs Rhodes @ 12 since he will fit our scheme better and CB is key need, or take risk at play maker and Eifert. We can deal with OL later

Armondo, really? You would trade down 19 1st round spots and only pickup a 2nd rounder and a third day draft pick? A move like that would require SF to give up much, much more. I'd trade down that far if I could get the 2nd round pick, a late round pick, and next years first round pick. The third day pick likely wouldn't make SF's team anyway, so they'd be moving up 19 1st round spots and giving up only a 2nd rounder? I think you need to go back to fake GM school.

Yes trade down Jeffrey rade with San Francisco get next years #1 at least, Vikings for both #1's and their 4.th, Dallas next years #1 and this years 3.rd that's what I would be thinking if I was Ireland fellas !!

There is only room for 11 players on the field at a time. Those 11 better be the absolute best players the GM had access too over the off season. Anything less than that is unacceptable this year. We can bargain hunt after we are a perrenial playoff team again. Until then Ireland should be grabbing the men with the most talent (right now talent, not upside BS) and lets win some games this year.

If They Want To Trade Up San Fran Will Have To Pay.

Ireland isn't In The Business Of Doing Favors.

The 49ers #31 Pick is A Glorified 2nd Rounder. 10-15 Years Ago He Would've Been A 2nd Rounder.

49ers Trade
#31-1st/2nd Rounder
#62-2nd Rounder
#93-3rd Rounder
2014- #1- Which Will Be Between #25-#31.

Dolphins Trade #12 Pick.

The Team Trading Down Is Suppose To Be The Winner In The Trade.

At With The #12 Pick the 49ers Pick T.Austin!! Winning!!

And with the #12 pick...

Trade up or trade back,

This is definitely not the draft to trade up in. The only way you trade up in round 1 is if that player fills a huge need and is a plug and play guy.

Eric Fisher is a guy I've seen and heard several respected analyst have Miami trading up for. In Pat Kirwans "Moving the Chains" show Friday they had Miami swapping first rounders but also giving up a second and a third (which still leaves Miami with second and third as well) and Davone Bess to Oakland for Eric Fisher. That's a lot to give up but for a LT and protecting your ultimate investment Ryan Tannehill, it might be worth it.

Another possibility to trade up for would be Dee Milliner I guess because sfter him all the other CBs seem to get grouped together.

Ireland stinks at the draft.

If you're happy with two or three depth guys or finge starters, by all means, trade back, back, and back some more. If you want to find a surefire starter, maybe with Pro Bowl potential, you stay at 12, or trade up.

I wouldn't mind trading down a few spots, but I wouldn't trade to the 31st pick in the 1st rd for anything. Let's think about how that worked out LAST time. We had a mid-1st rd pick, could have gotten a star player (check the board), yet we traded back for an extra pick and got Jared Odrick and Koa Misi. Two hard-working role players. Not that they don't play a role, but how do they compare to a JPP, Earl Thomas, Mike Iupati (not to mention Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant).

Ohh, sure, I guess they didn't see the talent that year either.

Truth is, year after year, people think they are the smartest ones in the room, but the logic still stands, the probability of a higher drafted talent becoming a star is greater than a lower drafted talent. You're basically betting against yourself by taking yourself out of the game. Ever hear "you gotta be in it to win it?"

This Is A Weak Draft.

These First 10 Picks In Any Other Year Would Be Bottom 10 First Rounders. The Overall Depth Is Good But Nothing Special.

In Other Words You Have A Bunch Of 70-80 Ranked Players In This Draft. And Since We Have No 90's The Highest Ranked 80's Get Rated On A Curve.

Did That Break It Down Enough?

Reason Some People Are Over rating These Mediocre TE's and Midget Wr's.

Trade down? Who needs top players?

Since the draft is always a crapshoot as to who will play as well in the pros as they did in college and Hs,I think the idea that more is better makes a lot of sense.
They are not going to be in the top 5 so adding more in the top two is ALWAYS something I have believed for the Dolphins Staus Quo.

Trading up or down just for the sake of doing it doesn't make sense. It only makes sense if Ireland (and team) think it oomplements his "horizontal strategy." If he sees KEY positions/players that fall below his spot he will TRY to trade down. If he sees KEY positions/players above his spot he will try to trade up. But he will not do it just to add a 2nd round pick.

He has plenty of picks that is not his problem/conern. He isn't gauranteed that the KEY position/players will be there when he picks at his set spots. So...we may see trades up/down in an effort to get the exact players on his horizontal board.

We will never know if he tries and fails. We will only know if trades are actually made. My prediction...many fans will judge him if no trades are made (even though he may have tried several times). Irony is many fans judged him negatively for the trade down for Odrick/Misi and many judged him negatively for the trade up for Thomas. He will never win in most fans' eyes.

I have to say as a UK dolphins fanatic (i have been to a few home games) but still probably dont know as much as you guys HOWEVER!
Unless I am being stupid and missing something, I am amazed so many people are saying we should trade down AGAIN?
To me with the way recent drafts have gone too, shouldnt we be trading UP to take the BEST AVAILABLE PLAYER? Esp now we have lost Jake to the rams?
I mean trading down for more picks in the lower rounds doesnt guarantee superstars and given our recent record with trading down for lower picks, where are most of all those guys now? GONE!
If were serious about overtaking the patriots then stop messing around and trade UP! take the best player, we already have amassed 11 picks!! why trade down we need PLAYMAKERS NOT BENCH WARMERS! In my opinion anyway.
GO FINS!

The finding value later in the draft thing is great if you are short on picks but we are not. This is a year to take our pick at 12 the more I see the mocks shake out. We can get a top need player and at the top of their position.

TimBo and Ruddy were from the draft class of 1994, not 1995.

Speaking of whom, the Fake Spike game was on NFL Network Saturday night. Awesome coming out party for TimBo.

Fluker fits this offensive scheme as well as Chad Henne does an NFL offense. If the Dolphins select Fluker, Ireland should be fired on the spot for gross incompetence.

Trading up!

I strongly feel Miami will trade up in this draft and it may cost them a lot to do so but it's been an aggressive offseason and it stays that way. Look for Oakland or Philly to be those teams Miami trades with.

Can you honestly see Jeff Ireland in a pretty much do or die year saying I am ok with Jonathan Martin and Nate Garner protecting our investment, Ryan Tannehill and his development?

That don't make sense. I am thinking more and more that Eric Fisher is Miami's next start Left Tackle and will be every bit as good as advertised and better then Jake Long! Thats right, mark it down, you heard hear first and if you've already heard it first then hear it again! Miami trades up for Eric Fisher!

I see us in a different position this Draft year. Prior years Ireland had too many NEED positions to fill. Today I think the Fins are in NEED of T and CB. I see the following as NEEDS IMPROVEMENT; TE, S, DE, DT, G.

I am pretty confident in Irleand's ability to fill the two NEED positions and address another 2-3 NEED IMPROVEMENT positions in rounds 1-4. Should be a good draft regardless of any trades made.

Mando, all those players you mentioned getting stink. Reminder of the Koa Misi-Jared Odrick draft whcih was the worst under Ireland's watch by far. Stick to making typos in blogs while I stick to being an idiot.

Learn from 2010 - get one of the most highly rated players, regardless of position and carry on ...

Armando writes;

The value in this draft, I've been told on multiple occasions by personnel men I speak with is lower in the draft where, they say, the 12th pick might not bring any better a player than the 15th-35th pick. In other words, a lower pick might get you as good a player.
======================================================
Dropping down or up all depends on the deal! Most trade partners may not want to give up much. If the Dolphins drop from 12 to 21 to 25; They may lose out on OT Fluker or OG Cooper. There is no doubt the Dolphins have to address the offensive line early. So dropping from the 12th position may not work to their advantage. Personnel people can out smart themselves when guessing on talent so why not make sure the team is able to get an OG like Warmack or Cooper or an OT like Johnson or Fluker. Instead of lesser talent in an OT like Justin Pugh or OG like Kyle Long.

In my opinion the Dolphins have done their dealing already when they gave up making the playoffs last season by not making moves. Stay put unless some GM offers an obviously one sided deal in favor of the Dolphins. Miami has the good chess pieces so why play a risky Chess game. Armando, that said smart people may try to play with what is already good enough.

Why trade down to 31?? Makes no sense when you can trade down with Dallas, who is at 16 and still get a second rounder?? Then you are only dropping 4 spots. I disagree that there will be no playmakers at 12 anyway, but geez, trading all the way down to 31 does not make any sense to me.

Trade for Brendan Albert before the draft. Then we can trade down with dall/min/sf to recover our second round.

Draft:
1. Tyler Eifert TE
2. Damonte Moore DE (Sherman's Texas A&M player).
2. David Amerson CB
3. Terron Amstread T/G
3. Safety o DT o RB

Frank Moore at 9:07, 100% right.

Now LUis Alves mock is one that I find extremely exciting.

Lee/Bobbyd12, we are of the same mind.

Andy, I'd take your suggestion as well bro. Move up and grab an elite talent (if that's what Fisher is). Even if we got a LT, I'd be happy about that move.

I never criticized the Pouncey pick...because he's proven himself to be elite. That's all I ask. Get an elite player with your 1st-rd pick. At least try.

A lineman isn't a wasted pick if they become elite. If you have enough of them your oline is bound to get better.

TRADE DOWN IN THE MID TWENTY SELECTIONS IN THE FIRST ROUND. NOTHING BELOW THE N.Y. GIANTS BECAUSE THEY'LL PICK ND TE TYLER EIFERT. I LIKE STANFORD TE BUT EIFERT IS MORE ELUSIVE AS FAR AS ATHLETICISM IS CONCERNED. I WOULDN'T HAVE AN INTEREST IN BAMA RB LACY BECAUSE OUR OFFENSIVE TERMINOLOGY ISN'T SUITABLE FOR HIM. HE'S MORE OF A WORK HORSE TYPE OF BACK. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL THIRD ROUND PICK AND AN ADDITIONAL SIXTH ROUND DRAFT PICK. WE NEED MORE AMMO. THE MORE THE BETTER BECAUSE THERE'S THE. 500 CHANCE OF HITTING THE RIGHT PLAYERS. 13 PICKS IS GRAVY ON TOP OF THE MASH POTATOES.

There 1st 3 picks would about cover it, we could move back up with 3rd and 4th round picks if needed. See who falls from the top, bargain hunting. I like it instead of 1 corner back we get 2 an OT and S or TE all early and top quality players.

No one knows for sure Martin won't cover the LT spot good this year moving up would be a waist of picks.

WhoTH knows? There is really one elite Player and one elite prospect in the first 12 ranked Players. If those 2 are gone by the time we draft, who knows what Ireland will do? Draft a not elite but very good Player? Trade back? Hmm...

s2010 DT's and DE"s Taken Before Odrick

#10 T.Alualu
#13 B.Graham
#16 D.Morgan
#26 D.William

All Taken Before Odrick.

2010 LB's, OLB's, and 3-4 OLB's, Taken Before Misi

#8 R.McClain
#19 S.Witherspoon
#31 J.Huges

Sure We Should've Went TE. But Spo was Still Coach and Fasano was Locked In As The Starter. GM Can't Do Nothing About That. So The Priority Was To Fix His Old 3-4.

Gronk had A Broken Neck Before The Draft. That Was A Boom Or Bust Pick. And Gronk Is Proving To Be Injury Prone.

JPP Was A Workout Warrior That Panned Out. Another Boom Or Bust Pick.

E.Thomas Was The Sure Thing. And That Falls More On Nolan Than Ireland Who Was Suppose To Be The Defensive Guru. And Ireland Still Managed To Get R.Jones In The 5th, Pick #163.

How Many Other Safeties Went Before R.Jones?

Not Saying Ireland Doesn't Miss. But Him Drafting Horizontally Allows Him To Get The BPA At The Position The Coach Is Looking For Depending On Need.

Now Hopefully, Philbin And Ireland have Discussed what are the REAL NEEDS of this team.

So Ireland Can Attack Them Early.

Really, the unit that needs the most revamping is the OL. You can bet that Ireland is going to drat 2-3 at that position, if not at 12, then just a bit farther down.

Hmm...

So The Priority Was To Fix His Old 3-4.

Posted by: Dolphin Artificial Super Human Intelligence
======================================================
Well I do not agree. The Dolphins addressed the slow LB's but the priority should be on getting the offense back to what it was when Shula and Marino were with the Dolphins. The game today is offense and more offense. Look at the two Super Bowl teams. Great defenses but they both scored big on each other. The Dolphins should fix the OL and they still need another speed WR.

You can rest easy that AI won't take over the World. They don't know the Metaphysics.

The more I read and listen to the papers and radio down here, the more I am convinced we will not be taking O line at 12. There is way to much chatter down here how people would be upset and Ross is a smart businessman. I know everyone will say what's best for the team, don't worry about what the fans think etc etc etc.
But Ross has to much on the line here, ie the $350 MILLION referendum vote and season ticket sales. The Referendum goes down in a big ball of flames with an O line pick. A lot of you bloggers out of town don't realize the anger down here that is still boiling over the bad Dolphin teams and our Draft picks. Just like I believe Ross told Ireland to pick a QB last year in the first, I believe he has told Ireland to NOT pick an O lineman with 12. I will be shocked if we go OL at 12.

I really like Gavin Escobar, Mando. Some of the draft gurus are calling him the next Tony Gonzalez. I saw him in one game and he dominated. Like him a lot.

Dashi at 9:52, sounds like a whole lot of excuses. Buck stops with the guy at the top, no ifs ands or buts. He fukked the dog that year big time.

I think they compare Escoabr to hernandez, just because they are Latino. Just like how they used to compare Hernandez to Tony Gonzales, even though they arent even remotely the same

GM JEFF IRELAND SMOKE SCREEN IS THAT WE'RE DRAFTING HORIZONTALLY. WE'RE DRAFTING VERTICALLY AND HORIZONTALLY. VERTICALLY FOR THE CORE PLAYERS AND HORIZONTALLY FOR THE STOP GAP PLAYERS. EXPECT TO SEE THE BIG NAME PLAYERS FOR OUR PICKS. WE'RE ALREADY A .500 TEAM BASED ON FREE AGENCY. WE, THE FANS ARE GETTING READY TO PAY TO SEE THE BIG NAME PLAYERS. BUT.. THOSE BIG NAME PLAYERS WILL BRING MORE WINS AS WELL. LET'S GO PHINS!

Gavin Escobar may be the next Tony Fernandez, he is definitely not the next Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a magnificent beast of an athlete - Escobar is small and slow. One thing Escobar will be able to do is find those soft spots in the zones underneath but he's not beating anyone long ...

Yeah, well, if the Team don't Win, Ross either will lose or won't make any $. We want the Best Players here, regardless.

Exactly Rdubs, glad someone said it. Gonzalez was a guy that would outjump you, run by you, or just push you the fukk out of the way. Escobar doesn't have that dynamicism to his game.

I also was watching the 'Fake Spike" game on NFL Network, Tim Bowens was absoultley dominating the Jets OL on one series Bowns was in the backfield on 3 consective plays and the Jets QB fumbled 3 times in a rows, the Jets recovered all the fumbles. Anyway just take the BPA at 12, we have enough draft picks already, unfournetley were taking another OL, greeeaatt exciting another OL.

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