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Not a fan of draft-day trades but if you must then ...

You know how I feel about draft day trades? They have rarely factored to any large degree for the Dolphins, as I demonstrate in this column. They were meh before meh was a thing.

And I do believe if you read the column the proof is indisputable.

But personnel men being personnel men, they still think that despite the fact they bat .500 at best -- meaning they miss as a group on half their picks despite all their meetings and tape study and visits and workouts and interviews -- somebody is definitely going try to jockey around the draft board because he thinks himself smarter than everyone else.

So what's my prediction if the Dolphins end up doing that?

Well, while everyone is predicting a trade up because the Dolphins have assets move up if they wish, I see them moving down. That's right down.

Why?

Because if the Dolphins personnel department is smart -- and there are indeed some very intelligent people in that group -- somebody has recognized that there are not 100 percent can't-miss superstars in the top seven picks. Going up in the draft will offer some good but no truly amazing player this year.

The value in this draft, I've been told on multiple occasions by personnel men I speak with is lower in the draft where, they say, the 12th pick might not bring any better a player than the 15th-35th pick. In other words, a lower pick might get you as good a player.

If that is the case, then logic says trade down and augment your number of picks and thus your number of equally talented players.

Following that logic, the Dolphins should trade down in the bottom third of the first round and add another second round pick and possibly another later-round pick in the process. That way, instead of picking up one player at No. 12, you pick up two -- with the lower first-rounder and an additional second-rounder -- and those two players can have about the same value as the one player at No. 12.

Logical, yeah?

Obviously, the Dolphins have to find a partner willing to do that.

Look to the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers are a ready-made team. They are a player or two from winning the Super Bowl. Maybe they want the best wide receiver in the draft and the way to do that is to be at No. 12. They're also locked in a talent war with Seattle. What better way to get the jump on the 'Hawks?

The 49ers have the 31st pick in the first round and have two second-round picks, including No. 34 overall. If they throw in a later-round pick, I'd give them the No. 12 overall pick. (Indeed, they can keep their later-round pick for all I care).

Such a sceaniro would have Miami picking 31st in the first round, three more times in the second round and two more times in the third round. Six picks in the first three rounds in this draft is a treasure.

Now, all of a sudden, fake GM Salguero is adding perhaps OT D.J. Fluker or OT Menelik Watson if Fluker goes earlier. Now I'm adding cornerback D.J. Hayden at the top of the second round with San Fran's second-rounder and I can go chase Stanford tight end Zach Ertz or San Diego State's Gavin Escobar with the 42nd overall knowing that I've already filled my two primary needs. Or maybe Florida safety Matt Elam or FIU safety John Cyprien is the guy at 42.

And the Dolphins would still have another second rounder after that. Imagine?

The Dolphins worked hard to give themselves choices for the draft while operating in free agency. They should be smart and work hard during the draft to give themselves more choices during that very draft.

One way to do that is to trade down, the opposite direction of what most speculation out there has them doing.

If the Dolphins don't trade down and stay at No. 12, they're likely to look at Star Lotulelei, in part because he's a good player and not a reach at that spot. But will he be a tons better NFL player than any of the guys I just mentioned?

No one can guarantee that. And that's the point of trading down in this draft.

 

Comments

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Phins,

I don't think you've spent much time abroad in regions where America has been a constant aggressor. Don't look for CNN to shine too much light on that. As I said, today's event is something we do several times a month and you won't hear about it much here.

Fighting terrosim is a must. But by our own definition of terrorism, we are easily the biggest terrorist country on Earth.

Tough to accept? It''s true. Americans are xenophobic and have little interest in the atrocities we routinely commit abroad. Most will hide from it or attack the messenger.

Ok armando, gotta agree....i see ireland trying to trade that #12 first round pick to move back into first round and pick up another 2nd round pick....if not stay put at the #12.....mOving up is to costly in this years draft for miami...i would myself trade that #12 for even two second round picks and maybe a 5th rounder thrown in there to us....heck, shop wr bess and running back daniel thomas..i would even shop qb matt moore because i think some team would give up a nice pick or two for him...just not a great qb draft class this year...always smart to price check your options...

Phins 78,

Agreed.

People Are Clueless. And Other People Look At This Country still with That Despise Look.

You Brought Up A Good Point. We Need To See If That Little Ching Chong Chump had anything To Do With It.

Maybe Jeff can trade down again, like he did when he passed on Dez Byrant and Earl Thomas for Jared "Who?" Odrick.

Posted by: Phins78 | April 15, 2013 at 05:45 PM

Phins78,

I know what you're saying. To be honest, I agree that you should stop 'helping' out everyone. Let everyone screw up their own country and fix it by themselves. Unfortunately, we live in such an interconnected world that too many interests have been created and it seems impossible not to meddle in other countries.

What is sad is to see how innocent people pay for politicians mistakes. It's such a f*** up world that some terrorist group thinks that they can gain credibility to their fight or even supporters by pulling sh** like this.
I don't condone but can understand if they want to blow themselves up while hitting a military convoy or carrier, but to take the fight to civilians who are just concerned with their every day life is plain cowardly.

"Really, the unit that needs the most revamping is the OL. You can bet that Ireland is going to drat 2-3 at that position, if not at 12, then just a bit farther down."

You'll find out what needs the most revamping when we have two minutes left to play and HAVE to stop the other team from moving into field goal range.

TJ,

Agreed.

The More Thought I Give It. The Less I Think It Is A Group.

A Group Would've Took Credit For It By Now.

This Looks Like The Action Of 1 Crazy Person. Not A Group.

Phins got options....we wait until next years nfl draft if we have wait to draft a left tackle...sign a stop gap left tackle to a one year contract if need be...i'm all for drafting best wr or corner with top pick ot two...we are building for long term and we can improve in so many other positions...moving up in drafts a dumb dumb move and over paying for non super star player...not no sure thing in this draft...best values are 2nd round back...

our corners are awful outside of grimes

trade the 2nd rd pick for albert

Odin if your running into a bear any hand gun other than a desert eagle is just gonna piss the bear off. If you need a .50 cal to hunt then its time to hunt elsewhere.

dusty is just an awful poster. awful.

I would not trade down as far as San Fran. I am hoping that the Vikings (at 23) would like to move up to 12 to take Tavon Austin. At 23 the Fins can take either Fluker, Watson, or Eifert and then pick up another 2nd rounder.

Twelve is not a good spot to be in but I would wait right until it is our turn to pick before dealing. You never know who is going to be available. Who knows if Lane Johnson or Ziggy Ansah will fall in our laps at 12. Or their maybe a player that someone else wants that falls to us (Geno Smith).

TRade down with the rams at 16 who several experts are saying genuinly want Austin for their second rd pick. take Eifert or jarvis jones ahead of the Steeelers then get CB taylor and Pugh or Armstead with the second from the rams

id stick at 12 to see if milner drops, if and when hes picked before us then trade down. id still deal for albert also

please no on johnson or fluker, both just arent very good. warmack would be best pick

Sammo,

A .357 and a 45 Can Also Pack A Punch.

But Agreed. A 500 Magnum Will Even Make Dirty Harry Think Twice.

If I Was To ever Own Another Gun. The 500 Magnum Would Be My Baby. I just Won't Take It To The Range. To Expensive To Shoot Just For Fun.

Like Shooting A Mini Shotgun.

warmack, hilarious. good way to waste a high pick. guard isn't even a priority.

Dashe are you really more than just soup?

What else then? Quiche?

There's no position on this team that I can see as an "urgent" priority. Priority, yes, urgent priority, no. Although, OT my be the most glaring of these non-urgent priorities.

Great job by Ireland in fa to make this so. He can virtually draft whatever position he likes in this draft. As far as LT, no one other than Joeckel or Fisher can really be considered upgrades over Martin.

Therefore, getting Lane Johnson any higher than #12, can not be considered sufficient enough upgrade over Martin.

Therefore, getting Lane Johnson any higher than #12, can not be considered sufficient enough upgrade over Martin.

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | April 15, 2013 at 07:13 PM

Of course you really have no idea who will be better than who. We don't even know what the coaches think of Martins potential. We can't rule out a full training camp at LT will be enough for him to excel at his natural position. Now maybe the coaches have ruled that out, but we can only guess.

I find it ironic how fans know it's a crapshoot guessing game for even the most studied pro's, yet they go on to pontificate as though they actually know something.

Just to get the last pick of the 2nd rd we would have to trade down to at least #18. But, we could also trade a 5th and both our 7th rd picks to move back into the bottom 2nd rd too.

I like doing the latter much better.

I think we'll probably pick at 12. The only ones worth going up for(Joeckle and Fisher) would cost too much.

For that same reason it will probably be hard to find a partner to trade down.

The trouble with the 12 pick is guard will probably be the best option unless they don't worry that Rhodes isn't a good system fit.

The question is what is our biggest position of need? Is it RT, LT, or CB?

I guess I see why some mocks have us drafting Fluker at 12. All the talent in the 1st rd is about the same from about our pick down. You may as well pick who you want and not worry if its a reach.

Is John Jerry at RT and Martin at LT a serious option?

It's rumored the Dolphins don't much like Lane Johnson. But it could it be, not that they don't much like him, they just don't see him as a significant upgrade to Martin.

Clearly, it seems only 2 LT's in this draft fits that bill. Unfortunately, both com with a very heavy draft price. Both our 2nd rd picks and a 3rd. Getting 1st overall pick also involves both 2nds and both third rd picks.

We have the ammo to trade to 1st or 3rd overall pick. But it leaves the cupboard bare in the 2nd and 3rd rds. That's too heavy a price to move up to take the 2 top LT's in this draft. I also don't see a trade to get to Johnson when he isn't a guaranteed upgrade over Martin.

Dolfan Rick,

If Johnson is still there at #12, I believe he we take him. Then he and Martin can compete in camp for starter at LT. Then that depends if anything else slides out of the top 10 to at #12.

If nothing top 10 significant falls to #12 and Johnson's available neither. It wouldn't be shocking if we went Warmack at guard if they loved him that much. But I still think Warmack goes 15-20th range.

So trading back could be more possible than trading up or drafting at #12. Almost anyone we could draft at #12, could still be available 4-5 slots later. Trading partner needs will determine if we can find partner to trade back with.

Hopefully we trade back no further than 22nd max. That alone gets us an extra 2nd rd, plus bottom 3rd rd pick.

Is John Jerry at RT and Martin at LT a serious option?

Posted by: Dolfan Rick | April 15, 2013 at 07:44 PM


Do you actually think anyone on this blog would have a clue? Do you think anyone here knows anything? Don't let their bravado talk fool you, they are as totally ignorant as you and I.

Learn to value your own opinion.

Most bloggers here have very short memories. Some don't even accurately see what happens right before their very face, nor fully understand what they just saw.

In the last game against the Pats, it was the Right side(Garner) that was repeatedly trampled. It was the worst game of the season by the oline as a whole. Yet, it seems many here use it confirm Martin is garbage at LT, When he gave up only 1 sack that was totally on him. The other was miscommunication between he and Cogs as to who was to pick up a blitzer.

Therefore, I trust what I saw, and not what some uneducated oline experts here think that they saw. Martin showed me no signs he's the garbage many uneducated oline experts here say that he is.

Max,

That's why I 100% agree with your 8:04 PM post!

YG,

To be honest, it would be icing on the cake of a awesome off season if we could find a trade down partner.

To be able to get 3 2nd rders in this draft and still have 2 3rders would be sweet.

Guys like Ertz, Cyprien,Lacy, Minter, Long, Warford, Armstead, Alford etc become possibilities in that scenario.

Not to mention the 1st rd pick that could be someone like Trufant,Hunter,Hopkins, or Jarvis Jones.

Sacks can occur for a number of reason, not limited to poor protection alone by the olinemen. It can be miscommunication between olinemen themselves, the rb may have missed a blitz pick up assignment, or the qb didn't make the correct presnap read and called the wrong protection.

Its not just limited to a particular lineman in himself was just plain whupped by the defender. Although this does occur too. This is exactly why you can not take the uneducated blogger's opinion for what you saw happened.

Yesterday G,

It takes a certain amount of wisdom and maturity to admit how much you don't know. Equally, while one should keep their minds open, they should learn to have faith in their own opinion, if they've properly educated it. This is what makes great leaders great leaders. Blind faith in what they believe above and beyond what the masses think.

Many here have not learned this yet.

I don't understand the trade down talk. We have ELEVEN picks. It seems too many players for us to add considering what we've done in FA. We can't turnover half the team. I'd rather trade up as much as possible with the exception of the first pick, getting six players will be enough.

Max,

The problem is that many people are too damn lazy to think for themselves. Making an even close to educated decision means doing the necessary homework. Rather than do the work to properly educate themselves. Many rather take popular opinion and use it as fact.

Just too much damn work for them to to do the necessary work to become educated. Why, when its so much easier for them to just become repeating parrots? LOL...

Well what matters is what the Fins think. If they feel pretty optimistic about Martin at LT, it would really be the best case scenario IMO.

Much easier and less costly to find a RT in the draft. For that matter you could let Garner and Jerry battle it out at RT and draft the athletic guard you covet in Jonathan Cooper.

I'm just repeating what Ireland said, that he's going to redo the whole OL. That's why I think he will draft 2-3 of these linemen besides other moves to acquire them.

The problem is that many people are too damn lazy to think for themselves. Making an even close to educated decision means doing the necessary homework. Rather than do the work to properly educate themselves. Many rather take popular opinion and use it as fact.

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone 4Ever! | April 15, 2013 at 08:28 PM


This is a far reaching problem well beyond the football blogs. It is a major concern in our educational and professional systems. Foreigners are kicking out butts for over a decade now because they arrive here better educated and trained to make the effort to do the proper research to stay on top of things. I'm 100% American, and embarrassed for the turn this country has taken in the last 25 years. Americans are extremely lazy and no longer make the effort of generations past.

Max,

That's my problem with trading back too. You gotta expect 7 of those picks to make your roster. If the two 5th rd picks makes roster, that's 9 picks.

So 4yrs from now, free agency, youre lucky if you can resign 4 of them. In all reality, youre just developing 3 or more players for the next team they'll play for once they leave in fa.

So, like you, adding 2 or more higher picks just adds 2 or more players youre unlikely to be able to resign in 4yrs. But it does give you a 4yrs window to win at least 1 sb championship. If you don't, those picks really didn't profit to getting you to your ultimate goal. That's winning a sb championship.

Max I agree with you somewhat on the picks. I think a trade down in the first would be ok though as long as we maximize our picks in the 1st four rounds.

To get 8 picks in the 1st 4 rds for example would be sweet.

Yesterday,

Rounds 1 - 3 are precious. With the picks 4 - 7, I'd look to trade up as much as possible if there is someone they see of value. Screw the point system. Every situation is different. We are loaded with picks and had a good FA. This team needs no more average players. Aim for quality vs quantity.

And I agree with Ireland, I only didn't think he would say it so expressly. Besides acquiring a new RT, both Guards need to be improved on. And depth, we need lots of depth at OL.

Many fans have been conditioned to accept gradual improvement. This is due to a 1-15 season after a decade of disappointment and the false promise of the Parcells era.

This team has built a core. Make no mistake, they are in Win Right Now mode as much as any team in the league. They are not thinking 9-7 is better than 7-9, they are thinking anything less than a playoff win is absolute failure, as they should.

It is funny to Us how parasites aspire to be Hosts.hehehe

They seem to have a sense of urgency and its about time.

oscar,

I'm not writing off Jerry. He is a beast. If he can finally come to camp in shape, he is not a player to toss aside. He may have finally turned the corner last year. He may finally have had the right coaching. We'll see.

We'll see about that shortly, Max.

Other teams will be gunning for the Phins to do something stupid. Leave it alone. Do a good job scouting and pick at your spot. Trading away to go down to take a guess on someone else is stupid.

I hope he is right this time
@OmarKelly: Omar Kelly's 2013 NFL Mock Draft first round, version 2.0 http://t.co/O5r46wbR0S..

bobbyd only a total moron would read a single word of idiot omar. if you like his opinion you should like dirty toilet bowls too.

Pez, to bad he has been right the last two. Now please get the f$&k lost.

Man, I don't know about these TEs this year. This guy Kelce, although not as athletic as Eifert or Ertz, looks to me good enough for Us. We have the TE that will keep the people occupied back there. All we need is a big body to block and catch clutch passes in the Red Zone.

the only elite players at 12th could be Chance Warmack of Jonathan Cooper....

Draft either one!

The Fins Are Only Interested Trading Up For L.Jockel.

That Is Why Ireland Can say He Has Enough Ammo To Go To #1.

How Would Miami Dolphin Fans React?

Can't Wait.

Here is an Acorn. Mike Sherman Was An NFL O-Line Coach. Before The HC and OC And GM, and All That Other Stuff. So The Fins Have 3 Capable O-Line Coaches. Sherman (The Teacher), Philbin, and J.Turner.

I Trust That They Know What Works. 3 Linemen With The First 3 Picks.

1-OG or Jockel
2-OT
2-OG

The O-line For The Next 3-4 Years Will Cost Less Than Jake Long. 5 For 1.

T-Hill Can Develop Wit His O-Line.

What an idiot.

I'm a Fan of the Run, especially the one around the ends with People clearing for it. There were a few of those beauties last year mostly to the L side. But allright, I accept the Times is to pass.

We Already Picked Up A First Round TE This Year.

His Name Is Dustin Keller.

2008 Pick #30

6 ft 2 in 242 lb
4.53 s 40-yd dash
38.5 in Vert
10 ft 11 in Broad
26 reps BP

These Guys In This Draft Don't Stack Up. Specially At #12.

Maybe In The 2nd Round, But None Of These TE's Are Especial Enough To Pick At #12.

They Lack That WOW Factor.

Ireland Would Have Better Luck Drafting Kenny Kadji as An UDFA.

Keller is so great they only gave him a 1 year contract. He is a stop gap.

Can be renewed, Aldon. And maybe not.

The Best TE has an 83 Overall Rating.

The 5th Best TE has A 76 Overall Rating.

None Of These TE's Are First Rounders. And The Difference Between a 2nd Round TE and a 5th Rd TE Is Slim.

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