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Keys to the game: Dolphins at Jets

I picked the Dolphins to beat the Jets on Sunday.

I simply believe Ryan Tannehill is better than Geno Smith. And, you'll read on Sunday, I believe Tannehill can carry his team at the end of this season. I'll link to that tomorrow.

Meanwhile, how do the rest of these teams match up?

Consider:

When the Dolphins pass the football: Well, seems Ryan Tannehill discovered Mike Wallace last week. He threw the ball deep and threw it often to the dynamic deep threat receiver. And while that resulted in only a couple of big plays and a touchdown, it didn’t mean all is well. Tannehill and Wallace are still a work in progress. Tannehill still underthrows his speedy receiver way too often. That needs work. The Dolphins also have to find a way to get more consistency out of Charles Clay as his performances have been uneven as defenses change coverages and have been successful containing him in all but a handful of games. The New York pass defense is susceptible to the big play, as Baltimore showed last week. The addition of Ed Reed at safety hasn’t helped that yet. Antonio Cromartie, the team’s best defensive back, may play against the Dolphins but his is not 100 percent healthy. ADVANTAGE: Even.

When the Dolphins run the football: This might get ugly. The team that managed two yards rushing against Tampa Bay and has failed to post the league average 4.2 yards per rush in five games this season, including last week against the Panthers, is facing the NFL’s top rush defense. That suggests something of a mismatch. And while the Dolphins hope the return of center Mike Pouncey can reinvigorate the run game, it should be pointed out Pouncey played in that fateful game against Tampa Bay three weeks ago. The Jets are getting great play from Muhammad Wilkerson who leads a front seven that is among the best in the NFL. With running back Daniel Thomas out with an ankle injury, rookie Mike Gillislee may get a few carries. ADVANTAGE: New York.

When the Jets run the football: The only way the Jets will move the ball consistently against the Dolphins is by running. The Jets have a solid offensive line that is relatively healthy and they have two solid, albeit not great, runners in Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. Quarterback Geno Smith also is a run threat when he needs to get out of the pocket, but he’s definitely not a Cam Newton or Steve Young. The Dolphins have been surprisingly poor against the run this year. They are 26th in the NFL against the run. And it’s getting worse as the season progresses. The Dolphins have given up 136 rushing yards or more in each of the past five games. What was a stout run defense in 2011 (No. 3 in the NFL) has found a way to let a big leak out the middle of the line in several games this year. ADVANTAGE: New York..

When the Jets pass the football: They’re a mess passing the football. The conversation about Geno Smith the past few weeks has been whether he’d be benched rather than whether he’s improving or not. Smith is a turnover machine with 18 interceptions and five lost fumbles. He doesn’t read defenses well pre-snap and doesn’t read the field well during the play. His receiver corps is led by, of course, Jeremy Kerley. Moe and Larry were left unsigned in the offseason. Stephen Hill hasn’t caught a TD pass in four games and Santonio Holmes hasn’t been fully healthy for over a year. The Dolphins are coming off an uneven game in the secondary because Nolan Carroll was surprisingly great against Carolina and Brent Grimes had perhaps his worst game of the season. Dimitri Patterson is out Sunday. No surprise. ADVANTAGE: Miami.

Special teams: MetLife Stadium, like the Meadowlands before it, is a difficult place to kick in the winter because strong winds not only blow through the stadium but do so in different directions. Dolphins rookie kicker Caleb Sturgis will soon find this out. Josh Cribbs has taken over from Clyde Gates as the Jets’ kickoff returne man and while he is not the dynamic player he was four years ago, he was an upgrade nonetheless. ADVANTAGE: Even.

Coaching: New York’s Rex Ryan started the season on the hot seat. But he took ownership of the New York defense and has made the decision to stay with a rookie quarterback. His job is not completely safe but he has kept a team with a flawed roster in the postseason conversation. Dolphins coach Joe Philbin has a more talented roster than the Jets and is getting uneven results from that roster but he has kept the team together in the face of an uncomfortable NFL investigation. ADVANTAGE: New York.

Comments

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Wow, I wouldn't be drinking the Kool Aid on Thill Vs Smith right now folks.

Thad Lewis outplayed Thill didn't he ?

I've got a feeling it will come down to the 4th. In this case Im hoping against our current form that we can score a damn TD in the clutch.

If we can't then we need serious changes on our offense.

However season will be in the toilet so it doesn't really matter and Thill fans get their wish to see Thill quarteback this team regardless of production on the field.

Posted by: Bodine | November 30, 2013 at 04:58 PM

To add some balance what are Thills negatives so far this season IYO ?

To the blogmeister that pointed out my remark about Thill and Wallace's performance in the Panthers game.

I agreed with Duper for that game and that game alone.

If Thill can't outplay geno Smith, then even you hardcore Thill fans will have your doubts, no ?

To add some balance what are Thills negatives so far this season IYO ?

Posted by: Marco | November 30, 2013 at 05:06 PM

1. He has to realize before the snap he may not get much time and be ready to throw the ball away and not take a sack.

2. Well documented off target throws on the long ball.

3. He has been too susceptible to fumbles in the pocket. He needs to do a much better job of protecting the ball.

4. While some mobile QB's use their legs too much. I don't think he relies on them enough. He needs to move around more to extend plays or simply take off and run.

Bodine nailed it. I think some are blinded by the jealousy of what T-hill brings to the team on the field and off. Perhaps they aren't real fans to start with. T-hill has a lot of intangibles to go along with his on the field play. That guy has future in medicine and pretty much whatever else he wants to do.

If Thill can't outplay geno Smith, then even you hardcore Thill fans will have your doubts, no ?

Posted by: Marco | November 30, 2013 at 05:09 PM


This is a very common media gimmick, Brady against Manning, Brees against Romo. The fact is, QB's do not play against each other. They play against the other teams defense. It is irrational on all levels to frame it as they are going head to head against each other as though it were a boxing match.

Sam I Am I dont think it was just Ireland that decided to let Bush and Long walk.Also changing ALL the coaches in ONE year was a mistake.The Dolphins were ranked 3rd on defense against the run where are they now.

Bodine,

You give some balance. However for he his biggest problem is stepping up in the pocket and avoiding the rush.

His accuracy os pretty good and he can put some zip on the ball from time to time.

I guess he has a chance to shut people like me up, with a win over the Jets.

The QB battle of course is measured by who plays the better game between the two. I sure Thill is a bit better than the rookie, but Smith is still dangerous and has had a couple of good games.

Thad Lewis caught our D by surprise and we cannot allow Smith to do the same.

Bodine = KingShula = Marco = TruthhurTs

GET A LIFE DUDE YOU ARE THE ONLY PERSON POSTING IN HERE

Bodine/KingShula/Marco/TruthhurTs,

Dude can you please swallow Tanne's load so we can move past this?
You love Tanne, unconditionally.
You know it, I know it, Tanne knows it.
Just blow the man and let's move on.

The Dolphins have yet to play a game where they won ALL THREE STATS that I keep but they have played two games where they lost ALL THREE.
You could guess that those two games were against New Orleans and New England the games that they lost by the most points.
If Geno Smith truly is a turnover machine then the Fins have a chance to win 1.Takeaway margin
2.Points off takeaways
3.Points in Red Zone(or td
proficiency)
If they win ALL THREE then an easy victory is very possible.

KingShula @ 5:23

You are correct.
It was not Ireland alone that let Bush, Long, Smith & Fasano go for no compensation.
The players and thier agents had a say in the decision also and they all decided to go elsewhere.

Guys our team is so freakin pitiful it's ridiculous every year it seem to get worse words can't describe our mess

We are the joke of the nfl

Tannehil doesnt have the accuracy or the pocket awareness to be a starter. He's destined to be a journeyman backup when his contract is up.

I just want to see the Phins play a full game hitting on all cylinders on ST, Defense and Offense. Save me the put the foot on the gas pedal talk Sherman until the offense plays a full 60 minute game. That wasn't the same O in the second half last week due in part at least because of the play calling. And same goes to you Coyle and Rizzi...Bring it..it's that time of year guys.

After 5 years of losing arent the homers tired of always being wrong and feasting on crow?

Marco,

I kind of covered your point in #4, you were a little more specific.

Now who was better, Dilfer vs Marino? Dilfer going against that Fins paper defense had a huge advantage over Marino going against that Ravens terror defense. Dilfer winning the game doesn't make him a better QB than Marino.

This is why I don't see how it is ever one QB against another QB.

How long did it take Alex Smith to become a relevant QB in the NFL and the guy went #1 his draft year?

Anyone who thinks they have Tannehill figured as a bust or a franchise QB better wait a while because we won't know for a while yet.

Well, Marino always stunk in the biggest games.

GET A LIFE DUDE YOU ARE THE ONLY PERSON POSTING IN HERE

Posted by: ExposingTheFraud | November 30, 2013 at 05:29 PM

Sure thing CaddilaccLincolnETFPriceMasterSMF et al....Ear Puller.

Jim Kelly really stunk in bigger games.

Marino played like a frightened girl in his one SB appearance. Hate to say it but it is true.

Darkoak,

I really like to split you - not.
I prefer Irish Oak.

Marino 1-10 in road playoffs, take J Kelly any day over the choker Dan eh?
It's the QB MORONS eh ?

Martin is officially done for the season.

Done as a Fin.

Done as a man.

He ruined our season.

Poster boy for the wall of shame.

You pretend fan/trolls can't handle the truth. The truth is obvious in the stats...T-hill has shown progress from last year and he should only get better with experience. He has comparable numbers to the oh so great class of 12 and in some cases better. And on top of that some good QB's in this league. Don't make go all factual/statistical on you peeps again.

Don't make go all factual/statistical on you peeps again.

Posted by: TruthhurTs | November 30, 2013 at 06:01 PM

No, no please do my friend.

Bodine,

Jets and Dolphins respective D's will give both QB's trouble. If it gets to the 4th and its within a FG, Thill will have to come through for us, regardless of who is playing against.

The fact that its Smith out there for the Jets, should give us the most glaring QB differential since the Thad Lewis game. Thill must come through for us in the 4th, no excuses.

Exposing what fraud you are correct their agents played the part of the little devil on their shoulders sayin take the loot take the loot,but before all that happened Bush was benched by Philbin and Long wasnt a deciple of Zone blocking that Shermans golden system requires.
On the topic of whose who I thought you were Oscar Canosa the doctor that regularly post on this blog and has been accused of fraud by another blooger it wasnt you was it exposing the fraud.

I would not contest those whom are overly critical of Tannehill, nor those overly positive. On both sides of any issue, we almost always find the TRUTH lies somewhere in the middle of both.

To date, I see ZERO indisputable evidence Tannehill will be a bust. In the same, I see zero indisputable evidence he will someday become the NFL's greatest qb.

However, I do see a very young qb who is making improvements, even if at best in some areas it's only the tiniest of baby steps. Still, that's improvement nonetheless.

In life, we rarely get to have our cake, frost it, and eat it too. Also, nonetheless, there are some whom rarely have cake at all. Folks, Ryan Tannehill is cake. There are small signs the frosting is in the making and we'll get to eat the cake(possible championship) too.

However, no matter how much frosting is eventually on this cake, eating it(championships) will also require help on both sides of the ball. No matter how great a qb is, he can not become the lone wolf of our team's success. See: Dan Marino.

Tannehill > Matt Ryan.

That is enough reason to celebrate.

The Dolphins D has forced 18 turnovers to the Jets 8.

The game will really come down to Thill turning the ball over less than Smith. Sherman and Philbin will keep it very conservative and let our D win it for us.

I'll bet Thill takes of running more this game than any other this year. Last season Thill started to take off more often and was pretty good.

Smith will take to his ground game asweel. We have struggled stopping QB's run on key situations. The Jets will ound it on us no doubt as our run D has been pretty bad for the talent we have on the line.

I'll go 13-10 Dolphins. Maybe Gillislee makes the most of this chance ?

Philbin has been outcoached all season in the second half of games.

We have let opponents outscore us 127-90 in the second half of games this season.

IF he can't get the adjustments corrected against the Jets our season is dead. Personally I've seen enough. Terrible play calling and bonehead moments to rival, Cameron and Sporano.

I'd keep Thill over Philbin, Sherman and Coyle any day.

WTH WAS NICK SABAN THINKING. WOW!

maybe thinpen will run missed field goal 109 yards to win the game too!!!

Some unbelievable college football today. Next up:

Johnny Football

If, by chance we decide to move on from both Ireland and Philbin, Stanford's David Shaw may be a name we should highly consider. Read this:

David Shaw (born July 31, 1972) is the head coach of the Stanford Cardinal football team. Shaw was the team's offensive coordinator for the entire tenure of head coach Jim Harbaugh from 2007 to 2010.

Previously, Shaw was a four-year letter winner playing as a wide receiver for the Cardinal from 1991 to 1994, where he was coached by Dennis Green and Bill Walsh.

Prior to returning to Stanford as offensive coordinator, Shaw was Harbaugh's passing game coordinator at the University of San Diego and an assistant coach in the NFL for the Philadelphia Eagles, Oakland Raiders, and Baltimore Ravens.[1]

His credentials are not bad at all. Including having Stanford currently ranked #1 in the nation. Downside, it opens the door to a Jonathan Martin return.

Tannebust will be running for his life on Sunday.

...and yes, Tannehill may have a future in medicine when he finally washes out.

He'll be a Pharmamacy Tech at CVS.

"Yes Mr. Bill Arnsparger, I'll be right back with your hemohorroid cream.

Sam,

I suggest you review Saban's credentials.

Carroll was a bust at his first NFL coaching job. He is doing well now.

There is no rhyme or reason to it.

This time tommorrow the Dolphins will be 5-7.

There's no way that The Dolphins beat The Steelers on the road.

They'll get blown out by The Patriots the following week.

That's 5-9 people.

3-0 + 2-9.

This year has been bliss.

Such a disappointment for the blind rose colored glasses wearing homers.

The team could be 9-2...sure they could lmao.

Tannehope is getting better, his completion % is up...sure he is lmao.

Losers.

Losers.
Posted by: FIRE ROSS KILL MARTIN JAIL POUNCEY | November 30, 2013 at 08:56 PM

Yes the guy who can't leave a site for a team he hates can comment on others as losers. Lol

Elmo, I believe Saban's success is more due to luck of timing than anything else. Saban went back into college coaching 2007. The Hurricanes college dynasty ended roughly 2004. 2005, Canes join ACC, and everything pretty much goes downhill from there.

Said all of that to say this. No college coach took advantage of college recruiting with the down-surge of the Canes like Nick Saban.

After all, Saban spent 2005 and 2006 in Miami coaching the Dolphins, so he was very much knowledgeable of the lay of the land to successful recruiting in the nation's top hotbed of high school talent. Then he to add, his collegiate success at LSU.

No doubt, Saban's far and away the top magician when it comes to recruiting the best collegiate talent. But, his stint in Miami, also shows when he can not lord over the top talent, he's average at best as an NFL head coach.

Thanks, but no thanks, to a 2nd stint of Nick Saban as Miami HC. Only if the NFL begins allowing recruiting, instead of drafting. Then, and only then, perhaps Nick Saban wins a Super Bowl.

Sam,

You missed my point. Saban had all the credentials too and still flopped. So it's a crap shoot. Some guy with no credentials could turn out to be the next Lombardi.

Though even for dolfans to feel contrite in their desire for the Dolphins to lose. There is still a silver lining to that basis of thinking.

Jeff Ireland would be gone, better draft position, and maybe a couple more positives I can not fully come to grasp at present.

Winning also has some positives. Which, both sides of this win loss coin, makes it terribly difficult which way to fully root right now. Both sides of this coin are boarded with positive and negative baggage.

So, neither side of this fan vs fan debate is neither 100% right, nor 100% wrong.

How much has better draft position helped Jax, Buffalo, Tennesee?

Posted by: Elmo | November 30, 2013 at 09:18 PM


My deal with David Shaw is that he was the OC over Andrew Luck. So Shaw's been running the closest thing to a true NFL base offense of any coach in college football.

Since Shaw has been Stanford's OC or HC, Stanford has consistently had one of the best and most well balanced offenses on the entire landscape of college football.

In Miami, we have MIGHTILY struggled on the offensive side of the football since the hey-dey of Shula/Marino. It hasn't just been the qb position alone.

How much has better draft position helped Jax, Buffalo, Tennesee?

Posted by: Elmo | November 30, 2013 at 09:23 PM


Just imagine how far away these tams would be without this draft position. Truth of the matter is, all of these teams have some very good talent on their rosters as a result of this.

I's all about getting that qb pick right. Buffalo just spent a #1 pick at qb. Tennessee and Jax, just the last 3yrs.

Jax couldn't forsee Gabbert being total bust. For Tennessee, Locker is horribly up and down. It's terribly important to get the qb position or years of top tier drafting can appear horribly awry.

Elmo, or it could be that these teams need rethink their methods of evaluating the qb position in the college draft.

No matter how much talent is on a team, it's tough to win without at least adequate play from he qb position.

Sam

I don't see a flaw with your logic. Just that it isn't so easy.

Carroll was horrible with the Jets, great with the Seahawks. Gibbs was great in his first run with the Skins, horrible in his second run. Saban was horrible in his first try.

So even guys with the best track records fall flat on their faces too.

Sam
I don't see a flaw with your logic. Just that it isn't so easy.
Carroll was horrible with the Jets, great with the Seahawks. Gibbs was great in his first run with the Skins, horrible in his second run. Saban was horrible in his first try.
So even guys with the best track records fall flat on their faces too.

Posted by: Elmo | November 30, 2013 at 09:37 PM


Notice how everything you said in this post reverts right back to qb play? Yes you need a talented team. Then, the caliber of qb play you're getting becomes critically important.

Joe Gibbs received the same caliber qb play, right?

no longer ecieved

Sam

I'm only being the devil's advocate.

The great Shula had the great qb play with the great Marino, and still couldn't get there.

Ultimately it is a team game with so many variables that it makes defining a formula impossible other than to say you need the best team overall to win.

Posted by: Elmo | November 30, 2013 at 09:48 PM


Exactly, what I've been stating! You can have all the talent t the other positions, but if you don't get the qb position right(doesn't have to be perfect, just right) it's usually for naught.

You can have the qb position right and not enough talent around him, same results.

Darkoak,

If I hate The Dolphins and their idiotic fans, then by reveling in the team's poor play and the disappointments of its loser fans then I am a winner.

Who's the only one smiling in here :)

Note I used the word bliss.

Try better logic next time, like The Dolphins year after year for four decades you've failed.

Oops Wallace dropped another pass.

Me = :)

You = :o angry, frustrated.

I'm apart from it now, it's liberating...a damn good feeling.

Enjoy the train wreck.

Ross will never win anything...nada.

I win.

When I speak of, enough talent around the qb, I'm speaking both sides of the ball. ST's even.

If not, at times it can be too much for a top tier qb to overcome, even.

Addition through subtraction.

Add 3-0 + 2-9 and a former fan who no longer has a rooting interest.

Laughing for the rest of time.

How come there's no playoff talk this week ?

PLAYOFFS !!!

It's easily understandable why any dolfan can be frustrated and upset. There more than enough evidence to provocate it.

What is not understandable, is that we owe it to OURSELVES to temper these feelings with sensible logic and evaluation. So as not to appear even more mediocre than what we have witnessed and complained about in our team.

After all, sports are but a at time highly necessary outlet from the stress of our real lives. It's terribly difficult to exist between the stresses of both worlds. We owe it to ourselves, to give ourselves a need break. We need to find a "middle-ground" between both worlds.

I will add one more thing to the mix.

The integrity of the game is at question. Too many bad calls change the outcome of the games. I don't expect human refs to be perfect. But for the life of me I don't understand why the NFL eschews technology!

Why are certain plays not reviewable? What the heck is with that nonsense? If a review can prove the call one way or the other, why not use it?

Pass Interference and defensive holding are too objective. What constitutes a flag varies game to game, ref to ref, play to play!

They can put RFID's in the ball, they weigh 1/1000 of a gram, to determine if the ball crossed the line. There is no need to waste time on reviews and camera angles when we have the technology to determine it instantly!

The refs blew the Seattle Pitt SB, and they admitted it a year later. Why run the risk of the same thing happening again? Many teams miss the playoffs or miss advancing all because of bad calls. It is bad for the game.

Integrity is a must.

Why the NFL deems certain plays unreviewable is incomprehensible!

Posted by: Bodine | November 30, 2013 at 10:04 PM


So, there goes life. Rules and laws change everywhere. Even at your own work place. We do not have to love or like them, but do have to learn to perform and abide within the framework of them.

So, there goes life, a continuing and constant change. Get used to it, it's going nowhere.

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