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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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Well I guess MIT is smiling wide right about now??

Didn't he pull his hamstring before he ran it? Wouldn't that account for the slow speed?

We did not draft a guard, but 2 right tackles... can somebody please explain?!... big hole there, not sure why people is not talking about it!!!

LMFAO maybe the worst blog I HAVE EVER read in MY LIFE. So wait there there basing this ALL off his 40? How about the FACT Landry had a 2.5% drop percentage in college lowest in college football over the last 3 years this would also put him in the top 5 in the NFL in the same time frame.

I guess Mark about to have a field day with this one...

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/05/13/new-miami-dolphins-wr-jarvis-landrys-value-cant-be-measured-on-stopwatch/

This team does verything wrong. Its laughable.

Stats below look familiar...Combine Results. Pro Day Results. Combine Invite: yes. Height: 6005. Weight: 216 40 Yrd Dash: 4.72 20 Yrd Dash: 2.77 10 Yrd Dash: 1.61, 225 Lb.

Yeah they are Anquan Boldin perhaps the best 2nd round receiver ever and person Landry is compared too. I'd certainly take that production...

So the comparison to Boldin is just inaccurate, or Boldin is a scrub too?

MIT is ready to serve the crow to everybody on this blog!

What did Anquan Boldin and Jerry Rice run? How 'bout Keenan Allen? He had a slow time and played super. Is there any subjective allowance/rating for how "fast" a player plays the game as opposed to a straight 40 time? Where does Landry dropping 1 pass of 130 enter into this analysis?

Dolfandave
Data Analyst by Profession Thank You

Mando is being deceptive & not completely honest here.

Landry pulled his hammy doing the 40 at the combine.

At his pro day, while still recovering, he ran it twice. First was 4.51 & 2nd was 4.62. Almost everyone runs a slower 40 the 2nd time around.

Mando, if you're gonna try an dpick apart the ick, BE FACTUALLY ACCURATE!

Hhaha, wonder where Mando got the idea for this blog entry???

I will go one further where this blog entry shuts off, if you do regression analysis to the mean for all his tests and metrics...

size, speed, bench, cone, shuttle, vertical, broad, and yes even inlcuding his production,

You will see that Landry regresses further from the mean than any WR drafted in the last 5 years.

So it's not that he only isn't big, he isn't fast, he isn't agile, he isn't explosive by NFL standards...

People brought up Steve Smith and Hines Ward but neither of them scored anywhere near as bad as Landry.

Landry will be an interesting case because his metrics are the worst... let's see what happens.

I would have preferred a much bigger WR for our accuracy challenged QB.

actually Landry is pretty good by the metrics LOL

People Anquan Boldin is 20 pounds and two inches bigger than Landry and still more atheltic. yes the 40 times were similar but the cone/shuttle/broad vertical were much better for Boldin - ona much bigger prospect.

Jaimesolera, Billy Turner will be moved to guard it sounds like.

This has already been discussed to death on here. Hopefully Landry is the exception.

judging someone by the combinen metrics is truly the most PATHETIC way to judge a player

And those talking about the pulled hammy - injured athletes can't take part in the combine - they are each given full phsyicals.

And even if you want to take his 4.6 or even his 4.5 which is not verified.

It still stinks for a guy his size with his lack of quicks and explosion.

On Friday MIT was telling EVERBODY, me included, the very same thing in this analysis. However I am still of the wait and see mind set because on tape this kid is a baller.

how can you judge a guys athleticism when he pulled his hammy a week before? this blog is a disgrace

I didnt like the pick. Tanny will get the kid killed if he tries acrobatic catches...

What hurts is that we passed up on Carlos Hyde for this guy... just as we passed up on Eddie Lacy last year..talk about not learning from your mistakes!

Hammies aside I'm pulling for LANDRY!! Please don't be a bust!!

mando, I would at least expect a reference in your next blog topic that I bring to the forefront here.

And next time ask me to provide you with a thorough examination of the player in question.

Just judging by 40 time is shallow.

It's superficial analysis.

Mark in Toronto is embarrassing himself as per the norm

Ted Ginn was very fast


And those talking about the pulled hammy - injured athletes can't take part in the combine - they are each given full phsyicals.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 13, 2014 at 03:42 PM

HE PULLED HIS HAMMY RUNNING THE 40! He didn't go to the combine hurt, he hurt himself RUNNING it!

Passing up Johnny Football will set this franchise back six years.

For those wanting to use the pro day time - pro day times - the combine time, if both sets of figures are presented are taken to be official and verified. Pro days have a local person doing the measurements.

The correct thing to do would be for Mando to explain that the combine times and results are NFL verified and then provide the pro day times as a footnote.

Don't get mad at Mando for using the NFL verified results - those are the official times.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 13, 2014 at 03:45 PM

Cockiness is a sign of immaturity. If you are good you don't need to tell people. Just a word of advice from an older guy.

Jordan, don't get mad at me, facts are fact...

like usual the messenger bears the brunt...

Garbage in, garbage out.

Landry ran at the Combine on a bum hammy.

Landry ran between a 4.50 and a 4.58 at his Pro Day, depending on who was operating the stop watch.

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/05/13/new-miami-dolphins-wr-jarvis-landrys-value-cant-be-measured-on-stopwatch/

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20140410/SPORTS0202/304100015/Jarvis-Landry-improves-his-40-time-LSU-Pro-Day

As a point of comparison, the NFL's greatest WR - Jerry Rice - ran a 4.59.

http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/Baalke-Jerry-Rice-Puts-40-yard-Dash-in-Perspective/2263a098-32f5-4926-8768-94ca0606c4e5

Bill, I'm not gloating, i'm providing background where the superficial analysis dropped off in teh blog.

I am asking mando for some credit here though... as I've been doing this type of analysis since the 2013 draft and providing my findings here.

Bart, are you really talking about a 40 yeard time from 30 years ago? a 4.59 from 30 years ago is surely more competitive than it is now ...athletes have run faster, and come in bigger packages since then.

And oh yeah, i will be posting a lot on this topic since it si right up my alley.

And 4.5 (his best, absolute fastest time is still slow - even if it isn't official). Avg WR runs a 4.46 over the last 5 years.

OJ Mc Duffie ran a 4.51, same as Landry.
He's the only Dolphin ever to lead NFL in receptions (90, in 1998).

pro day time beat wes walker by a few hundreds/second

upside is Hikey is not drafting like the raiders.

Obviously Hickey's draft was bad but did anyone expect any different from his 1st draft?

Landry is tough. Great hands. Crisp route runner. He's hungry. Determined.

These are the measurable that count. How does he play when the pads are on? The answer is, EXCELLENT!

Mando is trying to rip the guy essentially saying he should have been a mid to late rounder. LOL

When every other draft guy worth a lick has him as a sure fire 2nd rounder. IN SPITE OF THE SLOW 40 as a direct result of him pulling it in warm ups!

Mando & his ANALyst should be ashamed of themselves.

Again, OJ McDuffie was 30 years ago... irrelevant.

Clee, I have no problem drafting a guy with a below avg 40 time but all his athletic results were not only below avg but bad.

Can he still be a decent football player? I guess. But the bad metrics suggest his ceiling is not very high.

Ankle weights Wallace was tough

Why are you guys in love with Landry? Facts are facts he's slow for a WR. He might make it but odds are he won't. End of story.

Yes you have been doing this for a couple of years. Asking for credit is below you. Everybody on this blog knows what you have been saying since the draft started. Sit back and enjoy your analysis.....for now....on tape this kid is a baller.....I would wait until October to see who was correct.
You know we have historically seen a bad measureable guy become a HOF'er in this league. JJ, Shula, Parcells and Lombardi used to say give me Football players, I don't care about measureables. Notice no quotations!!

Another slow, but highly successful, receiver --- Keenan Allen. Drafted last year by San Diego, his 40 was 4.7 and currently he is considered one of the top 10 receivers in football.

Who cares about Landry's 40 time?

1) our deep threat is Wallace. He's the guy who must to run fast
2) Hartline only catches 15 yard outs along the sidelines
3) We need someone in the middle. Landry was a top 5 best hands in the NCAA.

Great football pick. Period.

We should have traded for Ted Ginn Jr. He was so great. And he was so fast.

metrics look like a second round reach but has football instincts and catches everything.

less concerned with straight out speed than quickness metrics for possession/third down receiver. how did that shake out?

Why are they so down on Mathews anyway?

cocoajoe, exactly. People are getting mad at Mando here but Mando isn't the one who drafted a WR with a historically bad set of measureables.

If the fans like the pick, be glad we have him.

If the fans are getting mad and letting loose their frustrations on Mando, or me even - shows they may be afraid it's true

Who cares about Landry. Where is the outrage in my release? I am going to make the Fins regret letting me go. Oh some big shot from North Dakota st gets picked up and they let ME go! I went 12-0 and national championship at Butte Community college darn it. My brother is going to light you up in Oct.
Losers

Nick@3:54 McDuffie leads the league in receptions and doesn't go to the probowl!! I was pissed! Why do Fins players never get the accolades?

no shock here, most everyone knew landry was a bad pick

clee dont think its matthews and his bad work habits as much as 2 guys coming off injuries and wallace being cut after season. they just drafted the wrong guy

The metrics have had a very high correlation to NFL success. Thats why they're used. They dont claim to be perfect but metrics have been very accurate predictors.

garn on mcduffie i think it was because he avg like 2 yards a catch. he moved the chains like crazy, loved that guy

If metrics were everything, we'd pick players using a phone app.

Posted by: bjones | May 13, 2014 at 04:02 PM

True about Allen but it's documented he's explosive on intermediate distances, runs amazing routes for a rookie and I also think a bit physical..

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/04/21/another-anquan-lsus-landry-shares-plenty-in-common-with-boldin/

its coming anderson

Fin4, I wanted to make sure you saw this.
========================================

To whomever orchastrated this little charade at my expense, I salute you! Given it isn't easy to draw me out into the THUNDERDOME for Chiklet Brains you'd assume reduce the blog to in order to suit your level of intellect!!

I hope that clears it up and if not no skin of my chest! The price one pays over a wire behind a screen!

Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 01:06 PM
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I asked for an explanation and I got one. That's GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME Fin4. Though I was just, kind of messing with you-LOL!

Like I said, I've ALWAYS thought more Highly of You than that!!!!

Posted by: odinseye | May 13, 2014 at 03:56 PM
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Most here already know that you're one my FAVORITE Posters here!

A reach?

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