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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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The world according to Sam The Sham

Players taken in the late second round are only third rounders, and therefore not as good as second rounders.

Screw history LOL Everybody knows all players play to the level of the round they were drafted, Even Shambo!

Pouncey 4 games IMO
Posted by: MiramarDave | May 13, 2014 at 07:13 PM


Well if that were the case, hope they can appeal it and reduce it to 2!!

Of corse Russell Wilson is the face of his franchise.

Posted by: Jay | May 13, 2014 at 06:59 PM

What's he on the cover of??
Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 07:20 PM


Pretty much all the football billboards within 100 miles of Seattle. And all the tv advertising.

Sam @ 7:19 I don't agree with you often but that almost makes sense. Tripp I hope will eventually turn into the Gem of the entire draft.

Garn79

A couple posts about today's signees:

Randy Richbourg · Top Commenter · Works at Retired

The Tennessee Titans were ready to sign Orleans Darkwa RB Tulane to a contract when the Dolphins called him today and offered him a contract. Darkwa rushed for 2,953 with 39 touchdowns in 4 years at Tulane. He caught 77 passes for 595 yards. His 39 TD's are a Tulane record.

Reply · · 1 · 14 minutes ago


Joshua Bawden · Provo, Utah

Gannon Conway has great hands... He was a Sundevil and I am a Utes fan. Seeing him push around my offensive line was hard for me to watch.. Not a big fan of Orleans Darkwa's running ability in college but his O line didn't help him out much.. He did pretty damn good for what he had to work with.. I'm liking these signings by the Fins though.. Even though they don't make that big a difference I still believe that the fins are using there eyes more this season than in recent years. I'm no expert; Just weighing in.. :)


Reply · · 11 minutes ago

Joshua Bawden · Provo, Utah

I might be wrong about Darkwa... He really did a LOT MORE than I stated before and it was with a SH#@ty line... What a stud!! Love the internet and how much info I can check out in under a minute...


Reply · · 4 minutes ago


MD @7:21
Ha yeah psych test!! Hopefully he can fake it & doesn't ask Cogs for any advice beforehand!!

2014 Dolphins Draftees Issued Jersey Numbers:

•OT Ja’Wuan James – #72
•WR Jarvis Landry – #14
•OL Billy Turner – #77
•CB Walt Aikens – #35
•TE Arthur Lynch – #88
•LB Jordan Tripp – #57
•WR Matt Hazel – #83
•DE Terrence Fede – #78


The Bengals vs Dolphins game last year was more entertaining than watching the Superbowl.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 07:03 PM

That SB was shades of the 80's watching the 49ers, Gians and Redskins dominate the NFL!

That aside I agree and yes it was! What an ending!! The game up in Pitt. where they were still alive as another and in that one I nearly had a stroke on the last play!

My issue with the team more than it's talent level lies with this Coaching Staff because like I've said before the teams lacadaisical approach to the last 2 weeks of the Season coming out of the tunnel had me questioning if Philbin had it's pulse and wondering if they even cared to be honest!

I can't recall a team with the Post-Season on the line looking flatter! It looked like everybody was Hung over or they had passed out Xanax in the Locker Room! It's as if that surge Vs. Pitt. and N.E. was about them and for them not for the team or there Coaches and here's were I hope I'm wrong! At the end of the day we talk these players up-n-down while ignoring the Big White Elephant in the Room which is Philbin and his lack of personality (With the Damn Q-Cards) Inability to adjust in game while having that beffudled look on hiss face ect.....

Whenever Seattle is advertised on tv......its always Russell Wilson's face on tv.

My data right here shows conclusively that Mando and Dr. Smith are a couple of empty wind bags.

Have at it...

Philbin does not inspire. He is a doormat.

Drafting is such a crap shoot Hickey's guys could all make the Pro Bowl someday or be bagging groceries in 2015. We just do not know.

Sam

Yeah it's like I was saying a couple days ago after draft, I saw a couple names that I knew should've or I should say were projected to go anywhere from rd2 - rd4 and I figured with draft being as deep as it was there would still be a lot of talent out there. As I've stated before I'm not a college guy so I don't know these guys like others but once I see them I feel I can get a read on them.

I really like what I'm hearing about a few of them. While I think a guy like Jensen would be least likely to make the cut, I'm finding myself quite intrigued by him!!

Sam also like that Joshua Bawden? Said, I was saying same thing today, I feel like this team has more overall quality depth across the board than in quite some time. I see potential for a lot of depth turnover this yr.

completely opposite of what other analysts are saying
below is a quote from PhinsNews

http://phinsnews.com/the-steal-of-the-draft/

THE STEAL OF THE DRAFT
The Dolphins made a lot of moves in the second round, and when the time to make a selection finally came with the 63rd pick they decided to go with a wide receiver from LSU named Jarvis Landry. Many Phins fans did not know who he was, and did not like the pick, however many football gambling fans are saying he might have been one of the most under rated wide receivers in the entire draft. This is a big statement considering that there was 12 receivers taken in the first two rounds, and he was the 12th one selected.

Immediately the naysayers started complaining saying, “if he is so good then why was he the 12th WR taken?” Well one of the biggest reasons was because he ran the worst time for a wide receiver in the 40 with a 4.77. First of all the 40 times are bull-sh#t, look at Ted Ginn and Clyde Gates, their 40 times were extremely fast, but teams need players who can catch the ball not track stars. Second of all, Landry tweaked his hamstring at the combine, and when he ran at his pro day he put up a respectable time of 4.55. Lastly if any of the phins fans looked at tapes on this guy, like Hickey and his team have been doing all off-season they will see a player that has football speed. Not only does he have football speed, and runs clean crisp routes, but he catches every thing that is thrown in his vicinity. He may not be the biggest WR at 5’11” or the fastest receiver but he does have abnormally huge hands at 10 ¼, which he uses to pluck balls out of the air in traffic. He is extremely tough and is not afraid to take a hit or give a hit in the blocking game. A lot of football gambling fans are comparing him to Hines Ward, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, not a bad list.

He was the team captain on a very good LSU team, and when you talk to the LSU Tigers fans, most will say that they actually think that he will turn out to be a more productive player in the NFL than his former teammate Odell Beckham Jr, who was selected by the New York Giants with the 12th pick overall in this year’s draft . This is coming from people who have watched both of these young men play together for years. Last season, even thoughBeckham Jr. played on the same team, he led the Tigers with 77 catches for 1,193 yards and 10 touchdowns as a junior. Beckham Jr is more of a home-run threat, but Landry is the better pro prospect because of his large, reliable hands, natural build and athleticism which enables him to make a play after the catch.

He is one of the most complete receivers in the entire draft and the most important trait that he has is his ability to make the catch. I know this sounds stupid, that of course a wide receiver should be able to catch the ball. However not all wide receivers always catch the ball, or can make an acrobatic catch, or make a catch across the middle, or hold on to the ball after being hit hard. Jarvis Landry can make all these catches, and has the ability to get yards after the catch. Now please tell me what fan does not what a tough as nails receiver who can catch everything that is thrown his way?

Fin4, I wanted to make sure you saw this.
========================================

To whomever orchastrated this little charade at my expense, I salute you! Given it isn't easy to draw me out into the THUNDERDOME for Chiklet Brains you'd assume reduce the blog to in order to suit your level of intellect!!

I hope that clears it up and if not no skin of my chest! The price one pays over a wire behind a screen!

Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 01:06 PM
=============================================

I asked for an explanation and I got one. That's GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME Fin4. Though I was just, kind of messing with you-LOL!

Like I said, I've ALWAYS thought more Highly of You than that!!!!

I think everybody already knows that you're one of my FAVORITES here.

Posted by: odinseye | May 13, 2014 at 03:56 PM
=============================================

I reposted this 3 times now, I hope this one shows up ;)

Is this a JOKE .17 seconds...

This guy will be the best player on the team by years end.

Wilson's Seahawks opened the 2013 season with the first 4–0 start in franchise history, giving up their first loss to the Colts in week 5.The Seahawks then went on a 7-game winning streak, culminating in a 34–7 victory over the Saints in week 13 in which Wilson threw 3 touchdown passes and earned his second NFC Offensive Player of the Week award.Over the next 3 weeks the Seahawks would suffer 2 divisional losses to the 49ers and Cardinals, but defeated the Rams in week 17 to finish the season with a 13–3 record, the NFC West title, and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Wilson finished the season with 26 touchdown passes, 9 interceptions, and a 101.2 passer rating, becoming the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to post a 100+ passer rating in each of his first 2 seasons. Wilson was named to his second Pro Bowl on December 27, 2013.[79] On January 19, 2014, Wilson and the Seahawks defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, 23–17, sending the Seahawks to Super Bowl XLVIII.[80] Wilson threw for 206 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions for a 123.1 passer rating in the 43-8 defeat over the Denver Broncos.


Any guesses on a Pouncey suspension? # games?

I'd said a while back I didn't think he'd get much if anything, now I'm not as certain..

Posted by: Garn79 | May 13, 2014 at 07:10 PM

Your guess is as good as mine but down here Locally Drew Rosehaus does Radio and given he's privy to Info. because of his relationship to every team and F.O. along with the Players he Represents I listen to his Phinsiders stuff! H said he's heard from a few around the League that Goodell will pass judgement here before the Season.

It will be like what he did with Roethlisberger who wasn't convicted of rape but suspended none the less for Conduct Unbecoming an NFL Representative. That case if you remember had Politics attached because Woman everywhere wanted Justice given it was 2 alledged incidents that Yr. alone plus one in his past on the Georgia College Campus.

This is about Bullygate which we all know also took on a Life of it's own. Rosenhaus also said that stupid Tweet Draft weekend might factor in because as he said, Roger Goodell isn't big on humor!

The LSU coaches came out on ESPN and said that Landry was probably a better receiver than Beckman his team mate and will be much more successful in the NFL.

Posted by: SAM I AM | May 13, 2014 at 06:46 PM

That makes perfect sense to me and I agree that the 62nd pick of Rd-2 is a Glorified 3rd Rd selection.

Speaking of Seattle, Pete Carroll was on NFL radio today and said they had Billy Turner targeted to pick in round 3 but the Fins traded up and got him.

according to Mando the average WER speed drafted in the second is 4.48 and if you look it up in the third it is 4.68
Landry ran a 4.55 and was the last player drafted in the second round

Ralph,

Has it maybe occurred to you that Phinsider is biased? Kinda a like asking a mother if her baby is cute.


signed defensive end Gannon Conway and running back Orleans Darkwa and waived punter Matt Szymanski, the team announced.

AJ Duhe really likes that UDFA DT LSU JOHNSON


Posted by: Garn79

++++++++++++++++

I briefly dated a guy named James Szymanski years ago. Wonder if they were related, lol?


Landry ran a 4.55 and was the last player drafted in the second round

Posted by: Ralphflorida | May 13, 2014 at 07:52 PM

Well, he also ran a 4.77

That makes perfect sense to me and I agree that the 62nd pick of Rd-2 is a Glorified 3rd Rd selection.

Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 07:48 PM


And what exactly is the difference? Are you saying all late 2nd rounders play like 3rd rounders and 3rd rounders are never better than 2nd rounders?


Such silliness!

F4L I fear that Drew might be right. If Pouncey could just learn to stay the hell out of the limelight maybe Ritchie could be maintained as the poster boy for the fiasco. As it is now since Ritchie started keepin a low profile Pouncey gets more attention even before the tweet.

If I was Ross I'd hire my own damn psychiatrist to tutor Pouncey on that test!

ARMONDO BACK TO TAKING SHOTS AT THE TEAM I SEE...

You and I have been here to long and have always been part of the late night crew and while we've never met in person I consider you my friend!

Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 05:04 PM
=============================================

Absolutely Bro! I consider you a friend as well, to the point I would welcome the chance to meet in person and catch a game together or something.

BTW-I do agree with the poster giving you the compliments. I like you posts and always look forward to reading them(everyone of them-LOL).

Ps: I wish the post above had shown up when I originally tried posting it. As soon as I seen you were on, I posted it(the first time). I had to repost it 3 times for it to finally show up.

keenan Allen ran a 4.53 and didn't even do the combine but let's stick to the facts, ok...

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 13, 2014 at 04:15 PM

4.53 IS FAST 4.55 IS SLOW ???????????

Can those two lovebirds get a room or something? Jesus.

Why such juvenile bickering over Landry?

Maybe let the guy play and decide after?


I reposted this 3 times now, I hope this one shows up ;)

Posted by: odinseye | May 13, 2014 at 07:45 PM

I saw the post you put up last night were you douted it was me. I also posted one in your direction this afternoon which you missed. We've been here longer than most on the late shift back when 0x80, Rob and Derek4Dolphins were here. Over time we/ve had a ton of convos Football and Non-Football related so while we never met in person I consider you friend!

Posted by: tom in pompano | May 13, 2014 at 07:55 PM

I think you mean Berkowitz first name David!


Yes

fin ody fin ody....ahh a blog romance blossoming!

I loved the Jarvis Landry pick. I thought it was the best pick the dolphins had. All you had to do is look at the highlights to see this guy is special. Mike Mayok, Todd McShay, and Dion Sanders raved about this kid. Here is what they had to say:

Mike Mayok- Mayock just raved about Landry on NFL Network. Called him a bigger, faster Hinds Ward. Jarvis is going to be a special pro receiver.

Tdd McShay- Called him his favorite receiver in the draft. He said that this kids has the strongest hands you will ever see and caught everything. He is a football player. He is pound for pound the most physical receiver in this draft.

Dion Sanders- Most natural WR he's seen since Jerry Rice.

Hmm I think I will take the word of those three guys over Armando Salguero and Mark in Toronto. Sorry Mark and Armando.


Orlando, but do you take their word over Little Boy Dashi's too?

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 07:56 PM

Don't use "Rounds" as your indicator. Instead use no. positions

ie: 1 through say I dunno 250

Make more sense now? YEP


Whenever Seattle is advertised on tv......its always Russell Wilson's face on tv.

Posted by: Jay | May 13, 2014 at 07:38 PM

So does the fact that Cam Wake has his face on most Billboards locally make him an NFL Franchise player? I think your missing the point!

With regards to his face being the one you see on TV when Seattle is brought up then you don't watch a great deal of NFL Net. given since the NFC Champ. game through the SB the Seahawks still frame that is used is either the play in the endzone or the Sherman rant.

I get as the QB he's one of the faces of the team but not it's single defining face! And don't agree in the meaning of the term that he's a FRANCHISE CALIBER TALENT. I understand what you mean but yor missing the point on my interpretation of the phrase.

The 2013 offseason was a failure overall. Ireland signed and drafted too many injured players; in addition, he neglected signing better talent at the WR and TE positions while ignoring the OL. He focused on defense in the 2013 draft and that did not work out at all.

I feel and believe the 2014 draft and offseason will also be most disappointing. The OL should be improved but the WR and TE talent will not be enough unless Tannehill makes remarkable progress. Hickey did draft players at TE and WR, just not the most talented ones he could have. He reached at multiple points in the draft and failed to address RT in free agency which would have given him more options in the draft.

Of course, picking five small school players may result in the Dolphins being a small time NFL team - again.

Very disappointing. Wish Farmer or Caserio had been hired as GM; Cleveland set itself up nicely both this year and next year.

If this guy makes acrobatic catches he'll never survive with Tannehills inaccuracy.

Landry and Hazel should switch numbers!!!!

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 07:56 PM

Don't use "Rounds" as your indicator. Instead use no. positions

ie: 1 through say I dunno 250

Make more sense now? YEP

Posted by: Garn79 | May 13, 2014 at 08:10 PM


Not when UDFA players like Arian Foster, Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, and mid late rounders like Wake and Brady throw that theory into the crapper!

Make more sense now? YEP!

Brady was a 6th round pick in 1999. How many times has that happened since? Romo was undrafted but most QB's in the league today were taken in the first three rounds of the draft.

fin4life,

You have to be pretty stupid to not admit Wilson is the face of his franchise. But, to each his own.

Anyway, I am a long-time fan and my best guess is that the 2014 edition of the Dolphins will be very similar to the past decade - no playoff victory, no playoff berth, a .500 year or worse, subpar coaching and lots of draft busts.

Ross will then give Hickey, Philbin and Aponte another year and the whole thing falls apart in 2015.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Cadillac, fin4life is latino. I hope that clarifies the situation.


fin4life,

You have to be pretty stupid to not admit Wilson is the face of his franchise. But, to each his own.

Posted by: CadillacDeVille | May 13, 2014 at 08:17 PM

Your confusing "Face of HIS Franchise" with Franchise Player. Was my point and NO he isn't! By that logic Mark Sanchez was a Franchise Player while the Jets were going to AFC Title games.

Sigh, your name could be a self-fullfilling prophecy of your entire life. Every post you have ever made here has been gloom. Maybe a name change, to maybe Shine or StarBright will improve your disposition in life?

Worth a try no? When you ain't got nuttin, you got nuttin to lose.

"Jarvis Landry displayed the sofest hands, with only 3% of his palms in contact with the ball at the catch."- from sports science

Now we finally have 2 WRs that can catch everything thrown their way. Matthews and Landry. Plus they are the only 2 WRs on the team that fight for the ball.

Drafting Landry makes Gibson expendable.

1- Wallace
2- Landry
3- Matthews
4- Hartline
5- Binns

Save Over $10M in cap by cutting Gibson and M.Moore during the preseason.

"THE MORE I THINK ABOUT IT"

Potentially, Hickey has done a better job at GM in 1 season than Ireland did in ALL 6 of his seasons.

1st rd--- Got he absolute best RT available in the entire draft. Call it a reach if you will, but he placed certainty over possibility.

2nd rd-- Speaks for itself. He turned 2nd rd into 3 great players for their school. Landry/Turner/Tripp.

4th rd--- Just what we are missing throughout our entire db corp. A BIG CORNER. Hickey brought us this in the form of Walt Aikens. Quite possibly he competes for a starting cb position.

5th rd--- Added another blocking/possession/redzone TE in Arthur Lynch. We have a seam thereat in Charles Clay. Not a pretty pick, but efficient one.

6th rd-- Matt Hazel. Congemi says:

"Matt Hazel is a two-time first-team All-Big South selection. While he may not have the exact measurables and build of a prototypical NFL receiver, Hazel is very smooth and fluid on the field, and shows the potential to make big plays. He’s a receiver that can concentrate and track the ball through the air very well, and has a penchant for making some spectacular catches."

7th rd-----Terrence Fede. Congemi says:

"final of five small-school selections from the ‘Fins and the first ever player drafted from Marist, Terrence Fede has racked up 25.5 sacks in his career. He’s possess great athleticism for his 6’4, 278 pound frame, and moves around the field very well. His best trait is his pass rushing ability, as he can rush of the edge with quickness and agility."

Also on his Finsider phone interview he said that he played all 3 d-line positions and stand up lb in college. VERY VERSATILE, not a 1 trick pony, which gives him an excellent chance of making our defensive roster.

fin...

Cadillac is ETF. Keep that in mind the next time you feed him

It amazes me how clueless you all are. No. It scares me.

Politicians LOVE people like you.

Russell Wilson is not only the face of his franchise. He's arguably the face of the NFL. His picture is everywhere.


And what exactly is the difference? Are you saying all late 2nd rounders play like 3rd rounders and 3rd rounders are never better than 2nd rounders?

Such silliness!

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 07:56 PM

Common Man! Were splitting hairs here of course if your drafted in the 2nd Rdyour a 2nd Rd pick. I believe he meant it in terms of value. If a guy is the 64 and last pick of Rd-2 is the 65th and 1st pick of Rd-3 a far drop off in value? I took this as his point nothing else.

wilson getting divorced now, notice how is face is going away now


Not when UDFA players like Arian Foster, Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, and mid late rounders like Wake and Brady throw that theory into the crapper!

Make more sense now? YEP!

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 08:15 PM


Hey dumbass, didn't you say the player plays up to the rd they are drafted in? What a dunce, you just totally condradicted your own lunacy.

The players listed in this post, played far higher than the rd thy were draft. What a dumbass dolt you are. LMAO!

One has to 'sigh' when looking at the Dolphins the past 14 years. Being 'positive' will not help bad coaching, bad player performance, or front office incompetence.

Philbin is a third tier coach. Hickey is an eighth tier GM. The teams' drafts have been horrid for well over a decade. But thinking positive will result in a 14-2 season with a Super Bowl victory?

Sigh.... :)

Little Boy Dashi

Matthews won't be here for game 1. He is dumb. He is clearly the odd man out. Once again your analysis is based on frivolity.

You will never grow up until you learn to recognize you don't know everything and don't know anything.


Cadillac, fin4life is latino. I hope that clarifies the situation.

Posted by: Beamer | May 13, 2014 at 08:20 PM

LMAO

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