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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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You can talk 40 times and draft position all you want but the real question is. What's the odds that Philbin and coaches will coach these rookies up to get actual playing time this year? They couldn't even get last years #3 pick on the field.

fin4life = dumbo

Shambuster = Dumbass Odinseye

Sam,

Don't let the Fandom get to you. Hickey did an OK job. He addressed the needs. But we can't tell how good this draft is until a couple of seasons.

My problem is that he reached on his first pick. But that was the biggest need on the team. We needed a RT. Even though I would have preferred Hickey drafting B.Turner and making him a RT than drafting J.Jones.

But I understand. As a Day 1 Starter. J.Jones was probably the Best RT in the draft next to J.Matthews. Z.Martin is a Guard. And I never wanted him in Miami.


Absolutely Bro! I consider you a friend as well, to the point I would welcome the chance to meet in person and catch a game together or something.

Posted by: odinseye | May 13, 2014 at 07:59 PM

Hell Ya Bro! I've always wanted to go to a Game at the Big House in Ann Arbor.

Booth @ 8:25

For the 80th time: Someone took over my CadillacDeVille and LicolnContinental handles when I switched to ETF.

Also once again: I have a career, 2 children in college & 6 life insurance policies I do not need to post under multiple names on the same page of shhtty blog.

Sigh,

Maybe you should involve yourself with things you find positive? Why suffer and why invite others to share your gloom? Was it worth all those years of unhappiness to be a finfan? If not, find your horizon, don't waste your life in gloom.

Be happy....if .... you... can.

Wallyfin I liked your post on Turner 3rd RD. So what you're saying is Hickey got the best of Ireland!!!

Little boy dick lover.

Man up and post something of substance.

Booth @ 8:25

The only thing that makes sense is that you know who Cadillac is and the only way to know that is if you are Cadillac.

Busted Again


Hey dumbass, didn't you say the player plays up to the rd they are drafted in? What a dunce, you just totally condradicted your own lunacy.

The players listed in this post, played far higher than the rd thy were draft. What a dumbass dolt you are. LMAO!

Posted by: SAM I AM | May 13, 2014 at 08:28 PM

I understood exactly waht you meant.

My problem is that he reached on his first pick. But that was the biggest need on the team. We needed a RT. Even though I would have preferred Hickey drafting B.Turner and making him a RT than drafting J.Jones.

But I understand. As a Day 1 Starter. J.Jones was probably the Best RT in the draft next to J.Matthews. Z.Martin is a Guard. And I never wanted him in Miami.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 08:32 PM


So then why is it a problem if he drafted a day one starter who was the best available at the position of greatest need?

Sonny, tie those laces on your tongue and maybe you will stop tripping over your gaga babble!


Sam @8:28,

You have to keep in mind. He has Dashi little boy balls on his mind. If they were any bigger he wouldn't be able to see the screen.

ETF

Just the fact you constantly deny it is Shakespearean..."Doth thou protest too much!?


I told you long ago, you won't escape, you can't. I will always know who you are. Your feeble denials only serve to confirm the TRUTH. Which is why I bother you so much :)

according to Mando the average WER speed drafted in the second is 4.48 and if you look it up in the third it is 4.68
Landry ran a 4.55 and was the last player drafted in the second round

Posted by: Ralphflorida | May 13, 2014 at 07:52 PM
===========================================================
I'm a Dolphin fan so therefore I hope your right about Landry but the issue is not his speed because he did have a hamstring issue and I will take your word that he ran a 4.5. The issue with me after watching him play and watching film is his lack of acceleration. He does not accelerate quickly which is measured with a much shorter distance. This allows him to create separation out of his cuts.

No substance. Just Dashi coming out of your mouth.

Tell us again how we are all idiots and you hate your life and we should all hate ours because you say so.

Tell us, you chin.

Folks, history shows that there is no correlation between any of the middle rounds 2 through 4 as to how a draftee works out. There is no data that suggests all 2nd rounders are better than all 3rd rounders, that all 3rd rounders are better than all 4th rounders, and so on.


It is a moot debate. You just have to let it play out to know who was worth what.

I feel bad for your children. Hopefully you don't have any.


So then why is it a problem if he drafted a day one starter who was the best available at the position of greatest need?


Posted by: Tellus | May 13, 2014 at 08:39 PM


100% agree! James, the best RT in the 2014 draft period!

Too many here were expecting a LT to play RT, then replace Albert at LT 2-3yrs from now. What they don't understand is how can you be certain the LT you select will play RT at a high level. Especially when he's only played LT his entire college career.

Juuwuan James payed RT his entire college career and did it at a very high level.

Depending on ones ideology you could say Hickey reached or that he didn't. It's all in the eye of the beholder & none of us can say with absolutes how Hickey performed until we see these guys get on the field as the future seasons unfold.

Love the fact we snagged Turner from Seattle!!

Troll 99, baby Dashe 0.


Not when UDFA players like Arian Foster, Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, and mid late rounders like Wake and Brady throw that theory into the crapper!

Make more sense now? YEP!

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 08:15 PM

Even when your actually making a point your facts are flawed! You group Warren Moon in here?? Warren Moon was a 1st Rd talent that refused to switch over to WR and the Good Ole Boy Network decided that he was to dumb to play QB because he was black!! His slight a race motivated one when the League didn't want Black QB's.

The Coach who broke the stigma was Legendary USC Coach John McKay in that very same draft in 78. He chose Grambling's D.Williams in Rd-1. The rest of the NFL believed they would fail with expansion Tampa and proceeded to Black list Moon who became a victim of circumstance. Forcing him to Cananda before J.Glanville pegged him for the Oilers in the Mid-80's

So then why is it a problem if he drafted a day one starter who was the best available at the position of greatest need?


Posted by: Tellus | May 13, 2014 at 08:39 PM

Dashi, I have noticed you always evade the point of your challengers. You can only respond some nonsense about their mother or your pecker. This is a clear sign of defeat.

I no longer believe Juwann James is a reach if he comes in and plays at a very high level right away. Double so, should Turner come in and play LG at a very high level.

Then Hickey will look genius!

Agreed. That is about how many times Dashi has knocked you the fkkk out...

I,Dashi have handed you, your ass so many times we have lost count.

You are the one showing his feelings and how Dashi runs you. Since you can't help but Talk about Dashi.

But keep believing your own lies. It is the world you live in. Self-Proclaimed King of the Blog!!! Whoopie!!!

In Sissy Boy we Trust.

fin4life, you single out Moon but know DAMN WELL I could list HUNDREDS of late round players that performed better than higher round players. This nonsense talk that a late 2nd is a glorified 3rd is GLORIFIED BS!!! HOF'ers and BUSTS come from all rounds ROUTINELY.

I know you want to stick up for Shambo, but facts are facts.

Is Brock Jensen Starting yet?

I can speak freely because I have no desire to be a member of the jack off buddy squad here. Many of you make some good points, but you all spout some REALLY DUMB NONSENSE as well. Glorified 3rd rounder LMFAO!!!!! Drivel!

Your buddy boys are too meek to speak out.

Not me.

I no longer believe Juwann James is a reach if he comes in and plays at a very high level right away. Double so, should Turner come in and play LG at a very high level.

Then Hickey will look genius!

Posted by: SAM I AM | May 13, 2014 at 08:51 PM

I never evade the point, even from my trolls, like you and your boyfriend.

I, Dashi am not going to repeat myself over and over for your dumb pleasure.

Same thing as asking the draft question. I, Dashi answered it one time. That is all you will be getting from me.

I don't tell my kids or my employees things twice, I shouldn't have to repeat myself to a grown man on a blog.


I no longer believe Juwann James is a reach if he comes in and plays at a very high level right away. Double so, should Turner come in and play LG at a very high level.

Then Hickey will look genius!

Posted by: SAM I AM | May 13, 2014 at 08:51 PM

I don't expect it out of the gates but do believe this group can gel by Mid-Season and be a strength. It's why the Pouncey thing is troubling if Goodell hands down a Suspension which all indications are he will.

If I say some Hail Mary's and ask for forgiveness, can I join the GLORIFIED club?

Landry may very well end up a bust who knows but don't discount adrenaline and game speed. Some people are practice players and gym rats and some come alive on game day.

Maybe he ends up being mediocre and never better than 4 on the depth chart. While that would definitely qualify as a 2nd rd reach he'll probably still be better than former 7th rd pick Matthews and that could end up being the difference in a game.

My problem is that he reached on his first pick. But that was the biggest need on the team. We needed a RT. Even though I would have preferred Hickey drafting B.Turner and making him a RT than drafting J.Jones.

But I understand. As a Day 1 Starter. J.Jones was probably the Best RT in the draft next to J.Matthews. Z.Martin is a Guard. And I never wanted him in Miami.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 08:32 PM


So then why is it a problem if he drafted a day one starter who was the best available at the position of greatest need?

Sonny, tie those laces on your tongue and maybe you will stop tripping over your gaga babble!


Posted by: Tellus | May 13, 2014 at 08:39 PM
---------------------------------------------------------


Little Boy Dashi, care to clarify your double talk? Or just continue to resort to your kiddie korner babble?

Is Brock Jensen Starting yet?
Posted by: Zonk | May 13, 2014 at 08:54 PM

Not yet, soon zonk soon

And I am sorry I,Dashi am not that Lame and Corny to repeat the same 5 insults over and over. Like you.

Yes, I make Dick jokes. Because I know nothing makes a Gay more uncomfortable than a good dick joke.

And I wouldn't make them if you don't keep pulling on it.

Speed?

Avery
Ginn
Gates

net 0.

Landry is a FOOTBALL PLAYER.

Big difference

Marino CHOKER.1-10 road playoffs
Sanchez 4-2 " " " " " " " "

fin4life, you single out Moon but know DAMN WELL I could list HUNDREDS of late round players that performed better than higher round players. This nonsense talk that a late 2nd is a glorified 3rd is GLORIFIED BS!!! HOF'ers and BUSTS come from all rounds ROUTINELY.

I know you want to stick up for Shambo, but facts are facts.

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 08:53 PM

-------


fin4life, hard to argue with this, no?

F4L,

Isn't it to late to suspend Pouncey. He already penalized Jerry and Incognito.

The worst he could do to Pouncey is what he did to Jerry. Make him see counseling before he can rejoin the team. Like they did with D.Jones.

Well Armando lets analyze....

Nolan Carroll runs a 4.3 - Brent Grimes runs a 4.6 - who is better?

What happended when fast Carroll lined up against Welkers 4.6?
HE WAS DESTROYED.

Lamar Miller runs 4.3 - peolpe say he sucks

Darrell Reevis runs 4.6. Who's complaining?

Its not rocket science to figure out route running supercedes speed.

Ill take great route running and great hands mixed with average speed or a fast guy any day of the week.

What happened to the fast receiver the Raiders drafted round 1 a few years ago?
Oh yeah! He sucks!

TROLLS - 99
stupid homers - 00


fin4life, you single out Moon but know DAMN WELL I could list HUNDREDS of late round players that performed better than higher round players. This nonsense talk that a late 2nd is a glorified 3rd is GLORIFIED BS!!! HOF'ers and BUSTS come from all rounds ROUTINELY.

I know you want to stick up for Shambo, but facts are facts.

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 08:53 PM

Listen everybody slow it down a minute!

For every 1st rd Bust there is a low Rd Star. I don't think anybody can take on that argument and win because the facts will kill you!

There was a post put up by Sam were he argued that in trading Down to the 2nd to last Pick in Rd-2 we essentially got 3rd Rd value. I agreed with it because IMO there isn't a Big difference between the value of pick 62 or pick 65 in Rd-3.

For that matter between Pick 32 and pick 33. One is a 1st rd'er the other the 1st pick of Rd-2. So how do you grade it?? Go by what the CAP dictates and while I don't have those #'s here in front of me I'll bet compensation isn't that far off between them.

This is what I agreed with not whether the talent levels are dictated by selection or Rd because given it's no exact Science that part is simply a Craps shoot!

Little Boy Dashi,

Most people mature about 24 hours per day. You are stuck on 24 milliseconds per day. Have you considered orbiting the Earth to accelerate time? At your current rate you will die of old age before you grow up! LOL

( C'mon...thats funny!)

fin4life,


Please shorten up your posts if you want people to read them.

You can not seriously expect me to answer to you, when you have such a condescending attitude. And like I told the other idiot. I am not going to repeat myself.

What part don't you "Comprehend"?

And let me guess, this is the only name you blog under. You Hypocrite!!

Stop being a Hypocrite and maybe I will respond.

Consider this the last time I address you, until you switch your name and Masterbait Dashi into answering your question.

And I, Dashi will know it is you, because you are the first one, Dashi!! Dashi!! Dashi!! As soon as Dashi shows up.

Until next time you undefeated Troll.

Henne = Tannehill

fin4life

Ok, a reasonable response. So from my point of view, it isn't a 32 vs a 33. It is light years from being that exact of a science. 25 to 75 is all a crapshoot, that is a huge pool of players, and then 75 to 100. Narrowing it down to the border of 2nd round and 3rd round to me is preposterous. That's all.

Listen everybody slow it down a minute!

Ah..the voice of reason!! Hehe!

Yep I ditto your post!


Sham apologies I jump the gun sometimes, it's the Aries in me.

Little Boy Dashi,

Most people mature about 24 hours per day. You are stuck on 24 milliseconds per day. Have you considered orbiting the Earth to accelerate time? At your current rate you will die of old age before you grow up! LOL

( C'mon...thats funny!)

Posted by: Tellus | May 13, 2014 at 09:11 PM

Stick to your 5 jokes. You are embarrassing yourself. That joke(?) took so long to develop I thought I was going to grow old and die before the Punchline.

Ref, Count to 10. I just knocked him the fkk out again.

Waz Up NNIIGGAASS ?!

Manz > fat guy that might be able to block at the meager RT position

Home 4 GM

Tann + Manz = much better than no QB in 2015

Home knows the Fins !

Clueless homers ,take a look at the new Dolphins Starting QB in 2015 Brock Jensens you tube video Eh?

Consider this the last time I address you,

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 09:13 PM


Stick to your 5 jokes.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 09:17 PM


Took you a whole 4 minutes to give in LOL. I'll bet Olive Oil could dominate you Hahaha (jajajaja)


Hey, gotta run..we'll catch up :)

Dolphin Training Camp = Awesome w Tann competing w Manz

Instead we have no deep passer QB

smh

Tannehill would be no competition for Manziel.

Hickey gets a "D" in the draft

U simply dont draft a fat loser at RT @ #19
Instead of a Fan Fav Franchise QB @ #19
Better inn every way than our Reach WR/QB @ #8


Home 4 GM

every throw brock Jensen made he had 10 seconds to throw the ball. He will not have that in the nfl.

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