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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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Seriously

a Freshman Heisman Trophy Winner QB

like LeBron Talent

or

a fat lard arse nobodylineman at the meager RT position

ENUF ALREADY

HOME 4 GM !

Home what you do for a living? a mcdonalds manager? your a real MCasshole.

Home, would you autograph my left testicle and then suck the ink off?

Miami has to have at least 12 Wins

to compete w Home's Boston Patriots

and a decade of dominance


If I say some Hail Mary's and ask for forgiveness, can I join the GLORIFIED club?

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 09:00 PM

I'm not looking to attack anyone on a personal level and this is a Football blog related to the Miami Dolphins of which we all hold such an overboard fandome that it borders on the lunacy!! I myself am so addicted to the game this team, NFL Network and this blog that I actually have to make deals with my wife about taking Her to a bunch of places I really wouldn't normally agree to just so She'd let it be!

I'll give you all a perfect example of something you might all find funny!

A couple of Yrs. back I was here and there was someone who used the screen name Soiled Bottom and my wife started a fight with me because She thought it was a Woman who liked it in the Backdoor, I C H I T you not!

She thought this because She felt it was impossible that I could in the Off-Season spend so much of my time posting instead of watching TV. She has since learned to accept it but I still catch alot of lip every now and then and end up at the Movies seeing some Chick flick as punishment to name one.

The point is were all a little out there with how much of our time this game takes up and have that in common!

Some choose the personal attack like someone on the last page who called ma a moron and attacked my heritage. I let it roll of my kneck in all honesty! If we diagree it's taken personal ect... I have to many opinions on this subject to waste my time with the trolling so to each his own! But I don't resort to the attacks I stick to my points! If you feel Russell Wilson is as good as Brees, Manning and Brady and is in that elite FRANCHISE Comp. then have at it!

Bart Walker approves Home's messages

your a pats fan but goes to dophins training camp. Nice. hows the llama?

Dashi,

Do you need a hug?

yeah, passing on Mr Football will set the franchise back 5-6 years. Hickey should've been fired for a huge botch.

Meet Home & Friends @ 2014 Miami Dolphins Training Camp

See ya day 1

Post and Home will meet ya

and we can watch the fat guy w no eyebrows lead us to the Superbowl

lol

Dbo @928 True but I like how he just casually avoids pressure..

One time DE is coming on his blindside, after his drop, just takes a split second glacé, just casually steps up..

haters love the flavor of the month, because been so long since they been with a woman. Johnny manziel is the flavor of the month.

fin4lifes new name....Ramble On......

another thing I noticed on Jensen is he stares down the recivers. I mean worst than tannehill. but he is elusive.

IT'S THE QB STUPID eH?

Shambuster = Dumbass Odinseye

Posted by: Secret Femine Roll Anti-Perspirant For Women | May 13, 2014 at 08:31 PM
========================

ROTFLMAO-As usual, Daytona Shammy couldn't be more wrong.

Leave me out of your petty little hissy fit spats Troll Tard.

Got it....? LMAO!

And no, I don't deserve the award. I could NEVER unseat you as "Dumbass of the year".

Why go all in on Tannefail

What possibly would have u make such an idiotic move?

Manziel = Most season tickets now sold from prior to the draft

+ most jerseys sold prior to the draft


Why draft a fat loser nobody w no freakin eyebrows ?

Home 4 GM + Marketing = $

Patriots draft white non gay players

and

Patriots are decade long winners

No fat loser black guys

Texas Big Johnny Manz
A great white QB


The worst he could do to Pouncey is what he did to Jerry. Make him see counseling before he can rejoin the team. Like they did with D.Jones.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 09:08 PM

If memory serves Goodell took his sweet time with Big Ben dropping the Hammer in Training Camp after he was exonerated on the Rape charges. So you never know with him.

In Cogs case he accepted the suspension handed down by the Team as sufficient. J.Jerry per the Wells report was a follower of what transpired. He laughed at Martin ect...

The supposed ring leaders were Cogs and Pouncey and the only one who hasn't met the heavy hand of the Comish so far is Pouncey. So we'll see and keep our fingers crossed!

Mallett is a loser.

Sick of the coverage of the queer that has horrible combine numbers

Boycott ESPN

$ whores !

Dolfans will never live down the fact they did not go w Home 4 GM's picks
of
Iupati
Kuechly
Manz

Now ur Phucked

Go Pats!

12 Wins to compete w Home's Pat's

Butt

Pats prob earn 14 Wins this season

so suck it w J. James 1st round pick!

Hickey = JackASSS

Home 4 GM !

WES WELKER 4.65

NEXT?


Mallett is a loser.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 09:55 PM

On the subject of the Pats didn't you get the feeling after this draft that when Brady completes this contract it maybe a new ERA in N.E.?

He signed a 4 Yr./88 Mil deal in 2012 which exp. after the 2015 Season. He'll be 39 on the onset of the 2016 Season and has shown signs of wearing down. They draft Garoppolo in Rd-2. If with his special release he can get ready and show them something I think they move on!

That Franchise has one thing right and that's no Kumbaya for Older Vets! When it's time to say Goodbye then Goodbye!! wilfork was Strong Armed into a pay cut! Vrabel, McGinnist,Law, Milloy and a host have been sent packing.

Another thing they've had issues the last few Yrs with the OL holding out and they went and drafted a sleeper in C.Fleming while Halopio has skills at Guard. I ws intrigued with what they did in the draft.

The queer guy won't make the roster unless the bid is fixed

look at the queer guys combine numbers
they SUCK

No more queer attention seekers !

No doubt Belichek has Brady wrapped around his finger, buying into his rap 1000%. I would not even say Brady is safe until the end of his contract. One 'off' season and they may market him for what they can get while they can get it. He is not a tough kid, they have to know they are pushing their luck with him not getting injured and out for sometime.

The drafting of Garopplo has to be a clear sign they do not see Mallet as their guy.

dolphins will sweep the pats this year book it!!

Anytime some blogger says book it, they are dead wrong!

I never been wrong mel gibson

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 10:11 PM

That's an interesting take on it! Brady today can probably still get you a #1 plus a couple of other higher picks in multiple drafts. It would need to be ateam ready to move on a SB though! You would also think they'd rather move him to the NFC but don't see a contender there that would bite? In that scenario the best fit is acually Cin. where he makes them SB Contenders right away although you wonder because they drafted McCarron but call it a Bama QB bias I don't buy into him either.


But yet another negative column by Mando.
What's new ?

Manziel is a joke. Did you see the LSU game where he stunk it up?
Jarvis Landry sure looked good that game.

Brady has done well injury wise over his career and I'll say he's a tough customer. He is nearing 40 and you can see he gets up a little slower these days. He seems to be adding late in games as well.

Can't fault his stellar career but I won't be crying when he leaves the Pats or when he calls it a career.

Fading not adding

F4L,

I believe Belichick will probably take 1-2 years off after Brady retires.

Even though he won't have trouble signing a FA QB.

The Patriots are building the Defense for After Brady retires.

Brady has at least 3 more good years left in him. I expect Brady to play until he is 40.

But yet another negative column by Mando.
What's new ?

Posted by: Random Shrapnel | May 13, 2014 at 10:23 PM


Well, the team loses every year. What's new?

The Pats tried to get a 6th rounder from the Texans for Mallet and the Texans said no way.

On the topic of Landry do people expect him to out man a corner like Browner without breakaway speed? Seriously it may have worked in college but pro corners are way more physical and all around superior athletes. I don't expect him to do much for us but fingers crossed he contributes this year.

According to the Browns Owner, J.Maziel is a Backup. And I, Dashi agree.


Brady has at least 3 more good years left in him. I expect Brady to play until he is 40.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:27 PM

In 2016 while 40 off a 1 Yr. deal no more extended commitments IMO!

Mallett > Tannehill

F4l @1019 I could see Arz taking a swing at him.

The queer guy has the #1 selling rookie jersey. It would be hilarious if he's cut.

It will be a gay uprising if he's released. But Ross and Philbin love to suck up to gays.

They will sign him and ruin our season.

Darkoak if he is a legit rout runner you don't need break away speed


According to the Browns Owner, J.Maziel is a Backup. And I, Dashi agree.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:31 PM

We'll see about that! No point in starting Hoyer where you run a completly diff. scheme. Same with Jax and Bortles who can play in a rolling pocket as opposed to Henne. I believe these guys are Back Ups the way tanne was here! We had Gerrard an I believe had he been able he would have started in 2012 but Ryan would have seen the field by Mid-Season anyway!

My new 2nd favorite team. The Carolina Panthers. They have drafted the way I wanted the last 4-5 Years. You get the Best Player Available in the First round.

Newton. Best Player Available.
Koochie. Best Player Available
K.Benjamin. 2nd Best Player Available in his position

That is how you build a Team. Oh and they added S.Lotulelei in 2013. To shore up the middle of the defense for the next decade.

Even, Home-o. Knows I am right.

I, Dashi was consistent that L.Kuechly was the Best Player in the 2012 Draft. And that the Fins could have taken N.Foles in the 3rd that year. (With L.Miller in the 2nd).

But we all knew with Sherman as OC. It was a dead giveaway the Fins were picking T-Sizzle #8.


The Pats tried to get a 6th rounder from the Texans for Mallet and the Texans said no way.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:29 PM

That's interesting hadn't heard. I thougt O'Brien was the one trying to swing that deal. In any event he's history but if nt traded then won't be released instead walks after contract exp. in 2015 no need in cutting him on Rookie deal loose with Garropolo no where near ready with that teams aspirations.

Nite all you "Soiled Bottoms"


F4l @1019 I could see Arz taking a swing at him.

Posted by: Garn79 | May 13, 2014 at 10:35 PM

That's right! I also like what they did and was surprised by the QB Arians wanted to groom taking Loagan Mankins in the 3rd! Adding Deone Buchanon to the Honey Badger on the backend with Peterson and Cromartie and there super solid IMO They have it up front in the treches as well.

Well, Philbin wanted Matt Flynn as his QB. He had to settle for TannePuke.

Assuming Brady will be Brady for 2-3 more years is a mistake. More often than not, players just decline with not much advanced warning. The difference between great and mediocre is often a very fine line. If any team is way overdue for a dud season, it's the Pats. That could be enough to move Brady out. Bill only thinks of Bill.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:42 PM

The panthers needed as much OL help as Miami they lost both Tackles and are minus a Guard where they actually have a T.E. convert at RT. They didn't address any of it while they drafted Benjamin they also lost the Top-3 WR's on the team adding Cotchery only. They take a step back this Yr. IMO

F4L,

J.Manziel will be starting. I am just saying what the owner said.

I give Hickey that. J.Jones will be starting week 1. (I hope).

To me J.Manziel is a 3rd round pick. And since it is Cleveland. His only chance to succeed was taken away from him.J.Gordon. How long before Dansby turns on him?

J.Manziel was a Great College QB, Mediocre Pro QB. J.Manziel can light up the Sabermetrics. Great Stats. But when it comes to it. J.Manziel has already reached his potential. He lacks the Arm Strength and Speed to play his style of QB in the NFL. And he has only average accuracy. Never mind his BIG Problem. That he is too small to play QB in the NFL.

The Pro game is a faster game. No Dancing around at the Pro Level. Ask P.Warwick. or R.Bush. You don't get that many chances to change directions in the NFL. That turning your back to the field works in College, not in the NFL.

If Johnnie was Black he will be a 6th round pick as a QB. Aka Taj Boyd.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:42 PM

The panthers needed as much OL help as Miami they lost both Tackles and are minus a Guard where they actually have a T.E. convert at RT. They didn't address any of it while they drafted Benjamin they also lost the Top-3 WR's on the team adding Cotchery only. They take a step back this Yr. IMO

Posted by: fin4life | May 13, 2014 at 10:56 PM

If Johnnie was Black he will be a 6th round pick as a QB. Aka Taj Boyd.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:57 PM

If dashe was white nobody would ever believe in God again LOL

Has Philbin been fired yet?


If any team is way overdue for a dud season, it's the Pats. That could be enough to move Brady out. Bill only thinks of Bill.

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 10:54 PM

Bill and Kraft only care about SB Hardware they've cut loose on more core Vets with little to no emotion just business as usual. Bill whose a good friend of JJ actually has a boat he called the 5-Rings! I also feel you have to be careful in 2009 Favre blew up the NFL and fell so far off in 2010it was rediculous! However his slide you could see coming back to 07 in G.B. were his arm would fade late in the Yr.

Posted by: dbo the great | May 13, 2014 at 10:38 PM

Again technique can work for him in college but when the corners run better routes than he can then what? Every player needs some sort of physical edge to be successful and more than one allows for them to be dominant.

Does he have a next level physically because he didn't show it during the testing.

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