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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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F4L,

Tannehill was the better QB in PreSeason. Matt Moore was Horrendous that year. Completing 39% of his passes. And Gerrard might have started a game but he was never in shape. Ireland signed him in Free Agency in case they didn't get Tannehill.

Agreed. That the young QBs will run a different system than the old QBs in Cleveland and Jacksonville. Even though Hoyer is a little more athletic. Even though he is coming back from a Knee injury.

J.Football will learn quick you can't hold on to the ball to long in the NFL. And that Windows are smaller. Specially when you don't have a 6'5" SG at WR.

Brady has a classic throwing motion. He is not likely to lose it when healthy. But, can he stay healthy? It's a rough game, it will take less than usual to put a guy his age on the bench for as stretch. At his age you can tweak something without even getting hit.

Like you say, B and K only care about the HW and really have no emotional tie to anyone. My gut feeling is Brady gets shipped off to another team and then pours the dirt on the Pats like most of their ex players.

I don't expect Brady or Peyton to have another great season again. THey had their day in the sun.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 10:57 PM

I think Manziel has a tough climb ahead as well but think he actually has some success to me the issue is when an NFL MLB catches him in the open field. There fast in the SEC but not as fast in closing on you towards a sideline like they are at the pro level. To me it will be a matter of the beating his style of play will subject him to.

Does he have a next level physically because he didn't show it during the testing.

Posted by: Darkoak | May 13, 2014 at 11:03 PM


You kidding me? The rap on this kid is that he is tough as nails, a junior Boldin, looks for physical contact and delivers!

I love all these clown making their assuptions based on a sheet full of numbers, I watched the dude play against some of the best corners in the NCAA, and he can catch anything thrown at him..

Make me sick the way these guys are hammering Miami's draft before a single man has stepped on the field...

I have to wonder... Will there be any integrity when and if they are wrong..? Will they own up to ignorance... Or will Armando just step behind his "Source" and say... "I didn't say it... he did"..?

Yes, the Panther need to retool. They lost old players. That were cornerstone of the Franchise. And the Former Face of the Franchise.

But the foundation is set. Look at the first round picks. Newton, Kuechly, Star, Benjamin.

They picked T.Turner the OG from LSU. So yes, they didn't address Tackle in a Weak Tackle Draft. But they still managed to get one of the Best Interior linemen in the Draft.

OK I'm out guys!

Posted by: ShamBuster | May 13, 2014 at 11:09 PM

If he gets on the field this season we'll see. I wish him well.

So yes, they didn't address Tackle in a Weak Tackle Draft. But they still managed to get one of the Best Interior linemen in the Draft.

Posted by: Dashi | May 13, 2014 at 11:10 PM


Dshidiot, weak tackle draft???? 4 went in the first round alone! Fin4 buried your argument, wave the white flag and move on. Speak less, listen more.

Let'm play. There is no debate until then.

4 went cause of need you idiot.

I see you decided to troll under another name.

Last year was a good Tackle Draft!!

3 went in the Top 4 Picks!!

That was a great Tackle Draft!! DF!!

G.Robinson is getting turned into a Guard and so will Z.Martin. Leaving J.Matthews and T.Lewan as the only 2 good Tackles to come out of this draft you dense donkey.

I'm out to.

Last thing I am doing talking to this clown.

Is it just me or is everything Dashi says wrong?

What kind of impact will Landry make his rookie year? Let's take an in-depth look at Landry’s scouting report via Scouts Inc.

“Excellent focus and natural hand-eye coordination. Has very good body control to adjust. Comes down with more than his share of 50-50 balls. Excellent job competing for ball in traffic and strong hands to secure. Makes tough catches over his head look easy. … Has slightly above average height and adequate top-end speed. Not an explosive vertical threat or a make-you-miss runner after catch. Will take jump balls away from defenders vertically. Will spring long runs with his downfield blocking.”

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I guess Scouts Inc. didn't get dashe's opinion LOL

Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40. What's up with that?

Rice would be a bust in today's NFL.

Why did we pass on two top players at their positions, Marcus Martin, a Center/guard from USC, and Chris Borland,a middle linebacker from Wisconsin, to select Aikens and Billy Turner.That doesn't make any sense.

The corners today are far better than in Rice's day, and the rules favor D. Remember Rice sucked once he left the best team in the league.

Marcus is a plodding player. Not what we want. Borland, maybe.

There's no place for me to run. There's no place hide from reality.

I don't think Landry will succeed.

His measurables were all affected by pulling his hammy. Watch his tape - guy can flat out play. Give him and Hickey a chance.

Watch Landry's game tape. Forget the precise routes, the tough catches, all that...just look at him run. He's not plodding, by any means. Not a burner, no, but he clearly, obviously, has functional football speed.

That his hammy made his speed hard to accurately measure is not a red flag...it was good luck on our part.

They should make players run their 40 in full pads...there's always a big difference in play speed. Anyone can line up in tights and track shoes after training for weeks on how to get outta the blocks...all this conversation is pointless, we drafted him already so sit back, relax and see what happens. Bottom line, quickness, route running, ball skills and hands are going to determine a receiver's success more so than a 40 time...will he break a lot of long ones probably not because he'll be caught but he will get me that 3rd Down 15 Yard conversion I need to keep my drive a live...that's all I want...got mike Wallace to sprint down the field.

The corners today are far better than in Rice's day, and the rules favor D. Remember Rice sucked once he left the best team in the league.

Posted by: Reality | May 13, 2014 at 11:30 PM

-----
Respectfully, I don't agree. Today's rules make it harder to make the tackle stick, and in fact many of today's players would rather fall down, or run out of bounds than stick the hit or take the hit like they did in the 70's through 90's...Deon Sanders being the exception. Even so, he was and always will be better than anyone playing that position for the Seahawks.

And Rice was well past his prime when he left the 49'ers, probably 36 maybe.

Jarvis Landry is wearing #14.

good , can't wait till Hickey and Philbin are fired!

I bet you clowns defending the WR pick are the same ones that said the Fins won't pick a WR early.

YOU HYPOCRITES!!

Only a complete fool wouldn't want a player like Landry.
Landry is already better than Hartline.
All time top 10 at LSU.

Guess who has the same exact hands size as Jarvis Landry?

You guessed correct! Kelvin Benjamin.

Mayock and Kiper LOVE HIS PLAY!

And have you read the stuff coming from theses football groupie LSU chicks?
He must have been a God on campus.

LSU fans are swearing they would have won a National Title if he would have stayed.

Landry = cousin of Glen Dorsey
Strentgh = does not go down without a fight , loves to compete, makes spectacular catches.

Hmm.... Seems like Hickey is taking players with a lot of HEART.

Unlike week 16 and 17 when we showed none.

It's amazing how many drafts there have been and yet people will not admit to this one truth.... ALL DRAFT PICKS ARE A REACH. No one ever knows how a player is going to do at the next level. All NFL players are gifted physically, but it's the mental side of things that determines how a player will perform. Jarvis Landry is a very talented receiver and is capable of being great on the next level. No one can say that he will or will not succeed until he does or does not. Everything until then is speculation and more than likely wrong.

The analysis is fine but being statistical, does not include the intangibles. Desire, competitiveness, football smartness, other Human qualities that cannot be described by #s. IMO, this was Hickey's best pick and, if given the chance, he will be an immediate contributor to the Team this year and, hopefully, for many more years after.

Of course reach is in the Eyes of the beholder just as value is. However, there are consensus available made by Football knowledgeable People, that indicate the probabilities that a certain Player will succeed in the NFL. According to these consensus, Landry was the last of the polished, NFL ready receivers and probably not a reach at all.

Posted by: oscar canosa | May 14, 2014 at 02:36 AM

Agreed. The most important thing it doesn't measure is whether the WR can damn ball!

You can have a WR that is 6'6" and runs a 4.3 with a 40" vertical but if he is afraid to use those things to come down with a critical play when a safety is ready to clock him, it's all for naught.

The draft is rated a D by most of the experts.

Now, for the negative on Hickey's Draft, if it can be called so now. Drafting most of the Players from small schools. This action by Hickey goes against probability that this particular type of Player will succeed in the NFL. It seems he did not want to or could not compete with the other Teams in commodity Players, then he decided to pick, to his eyes undervalued, small school Players. No way to assess his Draft at this moment.

It certainly seems rare that a GM takes so many chances in his first ever Draft. He either has big confidence in his ability as a talent evaluator, or he is a darned fool. We'll see.

Just a meaningless and inflammatory article. If anybody watched Landry on the field against SEC competition, he destroyed them. The 4.63 time is not an issue since his purpose is not as a down the field receiver. His purpose is as a possession guy to keep the sticks moving who makes himself a big target since his hands are amazing and makes the spectacular look easy. He will also be unstoppable in the red zone as he was in college. Analytics are misleading since we don't know the datapoints used by the Dolphins to make the assessment and that wasn't the only analysis put into the pick. It was just one piece to consider. Can be totally different than Armando's. And really,,, who cares whether he was drafted in the first round or 7th round, as long as he produces. Time will tell.

I think it's time for some positive thinking.

why dont they show all the top speed WR's who didnt make it ...... And Landry has a elite set of hands i remember 2 guy named welker who ran a 4.61 he did alright ....... Landry competed in the SEC and put up 1200 and 11 TDS and and yeah LSU had a speedy WR to pull safeties dolphins have wallace who atleast half the time will clear out the CB and S leaving Landry on a LB or the 3rd or 4th DB guy is a elite route runner and catches everything thrown to him with that said i see Tannehill getting him 50+ catches this year

its funny the sentinal actually questions if our line is better then last year and suggest Mathews is on bubble but both Dumb first off Miami has brought in Benton huge upgrade he turned a bust 3rd wade smith from miami into a 2x pro bowler. Fact is AT LT alone it is a huge upgrade Albert is top 3-5 LT and top 3 pass protector where thru 5 games Martin who has no inner strengh and is soft and now physical top Strengh... You can leave Albert one on one w anyone he shut Von Miller our whos one of the finest 3 out of 5 games and in 6 games 2 sacks 1 hurrie 1 hit.... Also faced Dumerville 08-13 5 seasons 10 times and 3 sacks in about 300 snaps. also faced Mario williams twice zero sacks.... Which means we can give james the TE to help

Fact is when benton Took over the line as was became 5 % better adding albert to LT means Tannehill blindside is is great shape made the line 40 % better because albert can go on a island 1 on 1 with the best and now you got two top all pro lineman at the much important spots LT and C ...... Juwaan james they say a reach at 19 and i ask why Miami needed a RT ... LT's seem to struggle making transition and james a 4 year starter 49 str8 starts shows durabilty and during those 4 years faced the likes of Mingo Jarvis jones clowney florida great defenses this year faced Early and michael sam and gave up not 1 hurrie and hes got great size at 6'6 311 and has good feet and athletism and was a team captain also showed great ability to run block and get to second level

we are squabbling over tenths of a sec for guys without pads... genius

so Albert is 100 % better then Martin or Mckinnie who played solid but was pushing 35 with bum knee . LG they say can he be better then igcognito ... first off hes not going to cause sensless 15 yard penalties and 2nd people forget yeah ND is a small school but is a 3x champ and i bet can beat 85 % of the FBS on a Neutral field. and Turner brings mroe size 6'5 3/8 325 lbs and is a tough mauler just like igcognito but is a better pass blocker and athlete . James is immediately better then Claybo who i watched cost us 3 games .... first off james is bigger stronger and i doubt he gets beat with out even touching the DE EX mario williams 2x and suggs 3 x..... Shelly smith thomas or brenner are all better then jerry who could be dominate if he got his hands on you but he could not pull and got beat alot because hes slow .......and Benton is a big upgrade who develops and squeezes all the talent out of his line ........ And the line gives up nothing in strengh actually stronger in some spots has two all pros at the two most important spots and 2 guys with out 50 starts on the line and with eh added athletism allows them to actually run screens and zone block too

Well to answer the 2 tackle post billy turner was moved to guard at senior bowl and I assume NFL as for Landry mando don't like pick from a guy who had no problem phins not trading back in 1st round but on same hand somehow doesn't get they didn't fill 10 needs with 8 picks

benton is a OL whisperer why they also brought in 5 qualtity undraft players. and Believe it or not i think Damien Williams catchs on 5'11 222 lbs 4.44 speed and can cut and accel great and a good catcher and in 22 games he has 24 total TD's and 2000 total yards ...... Lazor also big upgrade and will run a chip kelly style offense where they try to run 70 plays a game i think he develops a trio williams miller and moreno expect them to take up 35 touches a game between screens and runs. expect battle with thigpenn and damien williams the WR from titans both can KR so who does better and also who offers more on offense ......... also think he uses some option and teaches Tannehill to go for it when he gets defense holes where he can scramble and slide for 10,15,20 yards rather then wait and either forcing pass turnover holding the ball sack for negative yards or even throwing it away maybe bring up a 3rd and 12 .... Expect Tannehill to to increase everything

think about it Wallace and him are going to be better then what we seen them leave off at and thats 4 TD's 89 YPG and 15.7 a catch i know Tannehill layed a goose last 2 games but Tannehill was also sacked 12 times and hit 8 times in those two games and the running game avg 2.8 YPC and ran it just 19 times for 44 yards and one of those was a 9 yard run by tannehill before his last two games where MCkinies knee ultimately gave out and got beat 4 times clabo got no push and beat by jerry hughs and wilerson ...... but before that tannehill had the 9th QB rating. 87.4 Clay whos only 25 finally came out expect him to be better Morenos great catch and Lan.and think he did throw for just shy of 4000 yards and 24 TDS and he missed 5 passes to wallace that would of been minimum 250 yards and 3 TDS

as long as miami can get atleast 75 yards in every game and not held to teens. i think LAzor keeps 6 WRS a few extra line men and 4 backs expect tannehill to set passing and running records in yards and TDS and pro bowl i say 4600-5k total yards and 35 TDS

It's OK to be disappointed with Landry's metrics as a 2nd rounder. It seems that the numbers point out a merely average workout individual. On the other hand, the guy plays good football with the pads on and the tape shows that.

In fact, for such a reputedly slooow guy, I was struck with how many times during games that pass defenders had taken bad angles trying to get to him downfield after a catch. Clearly they were underestimating Landry's quickness and overall speed.

How well does he fit in the Dolphins scheme? Well, he comes to the team as a decently-sized guy with large, strong hands which he uses to snatch the ball out of the air. He is capable and willing to go across the middle. He catches virtually anything thrown his way and wins most contested battles. He is a savvy route runner, always looking for open spots when the QB is in trouble. His forte is short and intermediate routes which he often turns into good YAC.

In short, he is a football-savvy, good character, leader-type, lite version of a Joe Philbin receiver. Look for him to get a lot of playing time early in his rookie year and probably be starting by year's end.

Armando, you writee sheete here.

One question that has surfaced in me with all this goings on, if it is true that Jerry Rice's best time in the 40 was 4.7, how in the world did he get open deep so often? Don't tell me because he was Jerry Rice, there must be a factual explanation for it.

Now you need to take into consideration the percentage of catchable balls thrown to him (in college) and compare that stat to other receivers.


What was jerry Rice time in the 40? Yeah similar to Landary

Broder!, we were a whisker away from drafting Michael Sam. Only thing that prevented it was that Fede was higher rated on Hickey's board. hehehe

I guess it is great athleticism that allowed Jerry Rice to get open deep, Brent Grimes to cover huge WRs, etc, etc, etc.

No problem drafting Mike Sam at all. Only thing is that probably, in the shower room, most everybody would shower with their back to the wall.

Funny how the homers rationalize a bad draft pick.

How can you think positive when these jokers haven't had a winning season in forever?

It could be that I am rationalizing about Landry's pick. At the same time, I might not be so and I truly believe he could become an early contributor to the Team. Easy to find out which. Wait until the middle of this Season.

1. Glad Sam was not drafted by Miami for one reason: unwanted media attention
2. Landry has the biggest hands of any receiver in this draft class (look it up). Guy will be a TD machine this year.
3. We have 10 WR going into camp...the top 5 move on
4. I'm still concerned about our LB corps...did not address it in the draft
5. Tannehill will break into the top 10 this season

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