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Analytics suggest Landry a reach, won't succeed

A lot has been made about Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey intending to make use of analytics as part (not all) of his regimen for evaluating and selecting Dolphins talent. I assume if this is a serious venture the Dolphins will hire someone or several people to comprise an analytics department.

Well, they better get on the ball because I already have an analytics department up and running.

It is a one-man, volunteer, unsolicited department run and manned by Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith who is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clincal Sciences at St. Georges University of London.

Sounds impressive, right?

I'm paying this guy a mint (with a mint in this case being defined as nothing).

Anyway, Dr. Smith is extemely interested in the Dolphins' selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round of the recent draft. Landry, you should know, played and thrived at Louisiana State University. He was a favorite of LSU coach Les Miles. His performance on tape suggest he is definitely an NFL talent. And Landry did much of his damage against respected Southeastern Conference Competition.

But ...

Landry, 5-11 and 205 pounds, ran a disappointing 4.77 time in the 40-yard dash at the Indianapolis Combine. Hickey said he saw that as "an opportunity." Landry then ran a 4.61 twice at his Pro Day.

Well, the analytics suggest this was not an opportunity and this was not a very good pick in the second round.

Consider from Dr. Smith, who studied 1999-2012 drafts, with 2013 being eliminated because one year and a rookie year at that provides little for a complete evaluation:

"I did some analysis of WRs taken in the last six drafts (and some undrafted free agents). My dataset was composed of 284 WRs.

"Of these 284, only three ran the 40-yard dash slower than 4.70. Landry ran 4.77 at combine. This is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Landry ran 4.61 at his pro day. This is equal to or slower than 254 receivers in the data set. Only 34 ran equal to or slower than 4.60.

"Eighteen of these "slow" receivers were undrafted while 16 were drafted. So 53 percent of these 34 slow WRs were not drafted at all.

"Of the 16 slow receivers drafted, the median selection position was 93rd overall. Only three receivers were drafted higher than Landry at 63rd overall: Mohamed Massaquoi (50th overall), Dwayne Jarrett (45th overall), and Malcom Kelly (51st overall)."

Jarrett, Kelly and Massaquoi are all currently out of the NFL.

"A number of these 34 slow receivers had a productive final college year as Landry did. Three of these receivers played for SEC colleges with similar production to Landry.

"But only three of these slow receivers have had production in the NFL for even one year:  Massaquoi in  2008, Mohammed Sanu in 2012 and Devone Bess, who was undrafted 2008 but produced for several years.

"There are plenty of examples of WRs with similar production either having success or failing in the NFL. College production alone isn't a good indicator of NFL success. Landry's production is similar to Armon BInns, who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. went undrafted and is currently a Dolphin.

"As Landry was drafted in the second round it bears noting the average 40-yard dash time of WRs drafted in the second round is 4.48.

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as .17 seconds.

"Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.

"Depending upon how you determine value the second round isn't a particularly good time to draft WRs. The first round is better, as you would expect, and the third round is as good as the second.

"According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."

Dr. Smith's data is quite comprehensive. Have at it:

 

Download 1999-2012 NFL receiver data

 

 

 

Comments

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This is nonsense, Landry was a steal in this year's draft and will be a success in the NFL. We wrote why that is right here! http://phinsnews.com/the-steal-of-the-draft/

What good are receivers when you have crapola for a QB?

If this process is indeed accurate and we can evaluate players in this manner why don't teams just hire this guy to do all the drafting and it will eliminate the need for scouts and talent evaluators.

To simply put it, there are too many factors to evaluate players in this manner. If it could be done accurately then teams would have gone to this years ago.

TGH...I'd like to see you make an accurate throw while on your back.
I think a lot of people will be surprised at the leap Tannehill makes this year for a few reasons:
1. Bill Lazor - Better scheme, better mentor than Sherman
2. Better protection = more time to make proper reads
3. Vastly improved running game (including RB picking up blitz)
4. Better receivers - fewer dropped balls

Reaching was this years draft theme. Not that we are Seattle but they have been known to reach as well. They had huge reaches in round 2 this year.

Seattle took Paul Richardson WR in early round 2 and Britt OT late in round 2. I would say they were 3rd and 5th round grades respectively.

Of course Leadership and high character is not the highest quality Seattle looks for. Not that they are looking for criminals but speed is fairly important to them and Richardson can fly.

Is Brock Jensen starting yet?

Jack, teams have been doing something like this for years already. Seattle for one.

FOr sure not one as simple as this one above which just measures 40 times which is just a way too shallow way to perform analysis since WRs can succeed with a lot more than just speed.

But it's being done. As usual, Miami seems late to the party.

Several teams drafted players with the best tangible factors.

Tennessee drafted the highest graded O lineman and RB with their first two picks.

Pittsburgh drafted several high performers for their positions.

We drafted a couple of above average athletes in James and Turner as well. But no oustanding performers and Landry was probably the worst performer of them all when it came to the testing process.

Be careful of what you say about the NFL or the Dolphins, or you will be censored like Don Jones,,,,must not be insensitive to others feelings,,,it might make them cry. Having said that, Id like to see Philbin and Hickey, dickey in a wet sloppy man kiss, swapping pieces of cherry pie,,,I can see a piece of cherry sliding down a hanging on to Philbins protruding chin,,,,,

Unless an explosive player drops to them between now and the start of the season, I see Miami least in the AFC east with a 6-10 record.

Pats 12-4
Jets 9-7
Bills 9-7
Dudphins 5-11 With Tannepuke

Is Brock Jensen starting yet?

Posted by: Zonk | May 14, 2014 at 09:17 AM

Has Zonk's mother given birth to a male child yet?

5-11 would be better than 7-9 or 8-8.

At least then we would have an answer and start with a rebuild.

dickey in a wet sloppy man kiss, swapping pieces of cherry pie,,,I can see a piece of cherry sliding down a hanging on to Philbins protruding chin,,,,,

Posted by: DragonFly34 | May 14, 2014 at 09:20 AM

You are a sick POS.

Posted by: DragonFly34 | May 14, 2014 at 09:20 AM

Wow!! Jesus man!! I nearly Up-Chucked my Beakfast on that image you desribe! A bit early Bro!

Mando hating on the Fins again. Landry is a poor man's OJ McDuffie.

Where we failed at was in the first round with JOHNNY FOOTBALL $$$$ on the board and the Hick could not pull the trigger.

Back in 1983 the Dolphins coming off a Super Bowl and AFC Championship season with a Superbowl Starting QB and needing Defensive line help...

Dan Marino slipped to the 27th pick and the Great Don Shula pulled the trigger and got his defensive lineman in the second round.

Today's Dolphins don't have the brass ones to make bold moves that shape the future.

A poor man's OJ McDuffie wouldn't really be a very good player, would it?

i would agree with the lack of foresight this management team is doing though. Not showing a lot of creativity in moulding this team.

Just plugging holes it seems...

No attempt to add another layer to this teams skill position talent base at all.

The problem here is TANNEHILL that dude is a bust!!!

A larger version of Chad Henne with less wins in the same amount of time.

His wife is smoking hot, I will give him that much, I would love to take that little blond spinner for ride down both highways.

Bangy Dangy !

Miami had a good draft IMO. They really helped themselves with 2 starters IMO with James and Turner.

Ja'Wuan James was a reach as was Travis Frederick and Kyle Long the year before and both players ended up being the best OL on their team.

Jarvis Landry I can't defend the reach. I mentioned I wanted him as a potential "steal". A steal would've been preferrably late 3 or trade up in 4th. He's going to be possesion/slot WR at best IMO. Great hands but even in college every catch was in traffic and contested. If he can't get free vs college DBs he aint getting seperation in the pros.

Billy Turner was a great pick. Miami practically doubled down on the OT position but at the same time Turner can hide some of his small school deficiencies by simply moving inside and playing RG.

Walt Aikens I got nothing other then that a lot of teams were hot on him coming into the draft. He was drafted right around where he shoud be picked. Small school CB with very good size.

Arthur Lynch is a better blocking version of Dion Sims. I like the pick. It as an extension of helping OL and run game.

Jordan Tripp love his top 10 measuarables. Small school guy but he's someone I really want to follow and keep an eye on in training camp. He already has that chip on his shoulder saying if he went to Bama or Texas he would be a 1st rounder and said he was the most versatile LB in the draft. Love that. ST guy at worst.

Matt Hazel I got nothing again other then developmental WR who got better (numbers) every year at CCU.

Terrance Fede a 7th rounder who was going to be a highly sought after UDFA. Miami got the jump and drafted him. Practice squad.

Cutting Jordan Rodgers before OTAs was a stupid mistake, why sign him in the first place.

I think I know why he got cut. Pat Devlin ran crying to his daddy Joe Philbin.

So once again we get this spoiled brat for another year.

I hope Jordan's bro does light us up.

This guy is a football player period !!! Tough , strong , catches everything thrown his way . Plays in this league right away ! Everything else I'm hearing is just people looking for something to do !! Welcome to the Phins Landry !!

I hate the fact that the Fins can't power run anymore. Unless Simms or Lynch can lead block our running game short yardage is going to be a problem again this year.

Andy, see the draft same as you.

Hated the Landry pick - especially for where it was. Could've had a top rb or Moncrief or Martavis Bryant. Sheesh.

James is an above average pick but thought they left a lot on the table by making this pick. The penalty you pay for not sorting this out in free agency where RTs don't really make a tonne of money.

Liked Turner - 2nd rd grade, picked in the third, above average athlete, can't complain

Aikens not really crazy about. Think this is a fad pick with teams wanting the next Richard Sherman but Sherman is twice the athlete Aikens is.

Lynch I liked for where he was drafted. A meat and potatoes guy that does a lot fo the dirty stuff and has good hands. Will be a nice red zone outlet.

Tripp is my favourite pick for many of the same reasons you mentioned.

Last two I wouldn't know from Adam.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 14, 2014 at 09:17 AM

You've more than made your point and you know I've been telling you so since J.Mart's Rookie yr. were I made it a point to tell you, you were 100% right on your analysis based on the measurables. I just want you to take into account the overall game Landry brings and the fact the Anlytics can't measure that. He can line up split wide or drop inside the slot unlike our WR's now or in the past he will look for contact down the field and give support in th run game. Unlike Hartline he won't catch something in traffic and hit the deck before contact.

We had a guy long ago who had that overall complete game and that was Mark Clayton. I know you'll quickly remind me that he was drafted 30 Yrs. ago but back then Shula did put a premium on speed out of his WR's remember that in his day Paul Warfield had been a track star and the Dolphins lost a SB to Dallas based on the play of another Bullett Bob Hayes. I think that had something to do with Shula the G.M. in 82 drafting a track star in Rd-2 (Duper) who was a legit 4.3 guy in those days.

For my money however it was Clayton's complete game that made this WR Combo. Clayton would go over the middle fearlessly for the team. He would block if needed given as a rookie in 83 he played ST's Most importantly he ran a pedestrian 40 which dropped him into the 8th Rd which would have made him an undrafted guy today. If Wallace can regain his 2011 form before his contract dispute in Pitt. and Hot-dogging it here last Yr. then we might have something with these 2 because mark my words without ever playing an NFL down Landry is the 2nd best WR on the team today!

Jeffy, cutting Rodgers doesn't even rank top ten for worst mistakes Hickey has already done in the few mnths he's been on the job.

Posted by: fin4life | May 14, 2014 at 10:05 AM

Well let's see if he picks up the playbook quickly, and can find a way to get separation. Pro corners jump routes and play more press than in college, which he has problems with. He'll need some way to get off the line, and it won't be a quick start, that's not in his bag of tricks.

My biggest problem is spending the second on slot guy.

f4l, I never said Landry will bust. I just don't think he will excel and given our options with high ceiling guys available - it's a head scratcher.

Will Landry be a better player than Tre mason, Bishop Sankey (if they stayed at 50), Donte Moncrief, and Martavis Bryant?

He probably has a higher floor than Bryant. That's the most positive of all things I can say because his production was better than all the other WRs available. If he merely had average measureables I could let it go or even slightly below average, I might defer, but he was awful. Combine or pro day. A 28 inch vertical??? Goodness me...same as 332 lbs Greg Robinson.

I've been generous and said he has a similar makeup to Robert Woods, although Woods is a bit better makeup wise... anyway said my piece, let's see what happens.

Have the Phins won a playoff game yet?

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 14, 2014 at 10:12 AM

Unfortunately Mark we are not a running team anymore so we didn't value the top runners. Philbin seems to believe the running game is a novelty you use only when the other team backs off it's safeties.

Has Tannepuke hit Wallace on the deep ball yet?

Mark, if Miami stayed at 50 you can add Latimer to that list.


No attempt to add another layer to this teams skill position talent base at all.

Posted by: Mark in Toronto | May 14, 2014 at 09:52 AM

This is the part of the argument I won't touch given you know what my feelings were regarding Bryant and think the Steelers grabbed themselves a steal here!

Do you stupid homers miss Ireland yet?

Posted by: Zonk | May 14, 2014 at 10:20 AM

Has this loser reached the age of 10 yet?

Must be a slow day in the World of Warcraft... eh Zonk?

MIT, I'm OK with them just fixing positions of need and not looking for an upgrade. Look at Jordan last year, great player, but not an obvious need and the coaches couldn't get him on the field. Think they got a solid RT and G out of the draft. Hopefully Tripp can really play.

Wasn't Landry injured for the combine? Numbers aren't everything, but you would expect a top athlete to be a top athlete. I get that. Lets see how the kid plays. Think it was an injury insurance pick, and he fits the mold of the receivers Philbin likes.


Pro corners jump routes and play more press than in college, which he has problems with. He'll need some way to get off the line, and it won't be a quick start, that's not in his bag of tricks.

My biggest problem is spending the second on slot guy.

Posted by: Darkoak | May 14, 2014 at 10:12 AM


I saw you emphasize this point a couple of times yesterday and suggest you google his game in 2012 Vs. Top-10 NFL Draftee Dee Milliner. Where it was all Saban's team could do to hold on. Your suggesting that like resent bust pick Clyde Gates (Who I had mocked to Miami and loved out of Abilene, Tex.) he will get lost and Re-Routed at the line on the jam and if you believe that then you haven't seen him play because unlike the rest of you I did see him and he fights off the jam and gains his seperation nicely. Here I have little issue!

You sight Browner in N.E. now but isn't it fair to say that Seattle's Big CB's worked to an extent because of the Pass Rush allowing them to play press? If in N.E. he doesn't enjoy the same success were he has to hold his coverages longer and a WR gets behind him with no Safety help (E.Thomas didn't leave with him you know) it's 6!! There was a reason Browner washed early in the NFL going the Canada route beore landing in the perfect system in P.Carroll's D.

cmon man, make your articles based on reality not just to stir up controversy . You have conveniently left of the fact that the 40 time was run with a pulled hamstring. Do you have analytic s on WR times in the 40 with a pulled hamstring?

Toronto

I really wanted Moncrief with that 2nd rounder. I felt like he literally could be the steal of the draft in round 2. His measurables are awesome at 6'2 220 and sub 4.4 speed. I don't know why the fascination and reach with Landry. We have 2 Landry types on the roster in Gibson and Matthews. To me that is exactly what Landry's ceiling and floor is. I don't see complete bust but I see Gibson at best where he flashes at times but will never consistently beat an opposing defense or Matthews where he makes tough grabs but is limited overall.

Guys you don't have to sift through alot of video if you want to see LSU players matched Vs. NFL type talent on D then youtube them Vs. Alabama which is always one of the toughest games of the Yr. in College ball since Saban the former Title winning Coach at LSU decided to Coach the Crimson Tide that game is a SLOBBER KNOCKER ever Season!! I put stock i it because thta's when you see both sides really bring there A-Game and you can judge the 2 SEC Programs who have put the most players in the NFL in the last 5 Yrs.

Top 3 needs of the off season. #1- LT, #2- RT, #3 OG. That is all Hickey had to do to win the Off season. That and Resign B.Grimes.

Señor Hickey did it, without having to Overspend on Free Agents or having to Overdraft on a Tackle in a Weak Tackle draft.

Getting a #2 RB, resigning Starks, and possibly getting the future #2 WR are bonuses.

I give Hickey a B for the off season. B- for free agency, B for the draft. B+ for Cap Management.

We are still in Position to have a good off season next year. Which is always good. After cutting M.Moore and B.Gibson the Dolphins will free up about $10M in Cap that they can use on next years cap. With only Odrick and Pouncey being the only 2 priorities.

Some interesting position battles on Offense. My picks going into training camp.

QB

Tannehill
Devlin
Jensen

RB

L.Miller
K.Moreno
D.Williams
D.Thomas

FB/H-Back

C.Clay

TE

D.Sims
M.Egnew
A.Lynch

WR

Wallace
Hartline
Landry
Matthews
Hazel

O-line

LT-Albert
LG-Turner
C-Pouncey
RG-D.Thomas
RT-J.Jones
S.Smith
S.Brenner
J.Fox

DE

Vernon
Wake
Jordan
Shelby
Fede

DT

Odrick
Starks
E.Mitchell
Francis

OLB

Misi
Wheeler
Tripp
Edwards

MLB

Ellerbe
Jenkins
D.Johnson
Thompson

CB

B.Grimes
J.Taylor
C.Finnegan
W.Davis
W.Aikens

FS

D.Jones
L.Delmas

SS

R.Jones
J.Wilson

K

TBA

P

B.Fields

2015, Philbin, Hickey gone.

More than fair to judge the WR's out of both LSU & Alabama based on head-to-head given the Top flight talent the faced which all went high in NFL draft.

Bama DB's

Milliner
Barron
Kareem Jackson
Dre Kirkpatrick
Clinton-Dix
Vinnie Sunseri (underrated)

LSU DB's
Eric reid
Honey Badger
Maurice Cailborne
Patrick Peterson
Caig Loston

This off the top of my head in just the last few drafts!

Dashi,

Interesting depth chart there. I differ with a few. Moreno #1 RB. Mitchell over Odrick at DT. Delmas over D.Jones at safety.

I with you on hoping Jamar Taylor wins the battle at RCB and I'm not to optimistic about the Misi experiment inside.

Holy cow we still have a long time to quibble over these draft picks. The season isn't going to start soon enough!!

Still more than 2 months until pre-season. :(

Interesting undrafted guys

Anthony Johnson - He's obviously #1. He was considered to be as high as a 2nd round talent leading up to the combine. Average combine/failed drug test and he goes undrafted. Kacy Rodgers gets it done with DL so he's a guy if he can focus and not be an idiot has a chance to stick and become a contributor.

Damian Williams - Good college player, bad person. A trouble maker who has skills. Again if he can focus on football I can see him beating out the worst YPC RB since he entered the league in D. Thomas. I will be paying close attention to him in preseason and camp.

Harold "Gator" Hoskins - He's a Charles Clay clone in body type at 6'2 240 and like Clay in college is know for making the big play. Hoskins had 15 TDs last year and 10 the year before as a pass catching TE/Hback type. It will be interesting to see what his skill set looks like when the pads come on. Can he block?

go heat !

I criticized every move about this draft , but man I hope I was wrong and Hickey/Philbin are genious's!!!!


Drafted to play inside so metrics aren’t as much a concern. Tough and catches absolutely everything.

I look at the 4.77 pulled hammy time as an opportunity to draft a guy lower than his production dictates and who opposing DB hated playing against.

Time will tell but glad we didn’t draft a guy off the Oregon track team or a RB with good metrics.



Dashi,

Interesting depth chart there. I differ with a few. Moreno #1 RB. Mitchell over Odrick at DT. Delmas over D.Jones at safety.

I with you on hoping Jamar Taylor wins the battle at RCB and I'm not to optimistic about the Misi experiment inside.

Posted by: Dolfan Rick | May 14, 2014 at 10:48 AM

I have a few takes on the Depth chart as well.....

I get releasing M.Moore but doubt it happens because Devlin has shown little and if anything hapened to Tanne, Oy Vey!!!

I actually think Don Jones will get his shot at S.S. and prefer R.Jones at F.S. (Were he played and excelled in 2012)

We'll see at RG were I'm not Banking on Dallas Thomas and feel shelley Smith gets the nod aside from adding Inside Run Blocking presence on that side which we've lacked as far back as I can remember!

Armando, you might be interested to know that the 40-time posted at the combine of the greatest receiver in NFL history - Jerry Rice - was 4.71 seconds. Analyze that!

How long will it take you folks to see that the departure of Ireland & Sherman is a watershed moment for this team?

It was painfully obvious that Philbin grew to hate Ireland, and Sherman was in total control of the offense.

IMO, I believe Philbin lost the last two games on purpose with the goal to oust Ireland as he knew Ross (and Dawn)were in his corner.

If Miami wins either game and makes the playoffs, (and losing in first round) Sherman & Ireland will still be calling the shots.

Philbin now has near total power and is gaining more with each passing day...couple that with Bill Lazor now running a high-octane offense...and well let just say things will be different this year, and if you can't see this, you lack basic instincts.

Hickey knowingly( we hope) drafted an outlier after researching him.

That and small school guys showed he has some nards. Time will tell if his bets pay off.

This team is now deep and ready to move foward

NHfinsfan, I hope you are right. Add Turner being gone and replaced by Benton and also a new LB coach could help a lot as well.

I still don't think Philbin would tank the lost 2 games. Why would he risk his own career for that? By most accounts Philbin tried hard to save Sherman.

I can't wait to see this new offense in action

We were under Manned and they preyed on us our line just cllapsed under pressure

Landry wearing #14

That's a terrible WR number. Maybe Im just a little old school but these WRs wearing teen numbers is something I'm not a fan of. At least with his pedestrian numbers, his inconsistencies will make us all think Marlon Moore is still out there lol

fin4life, I had the same thoughts on the Safety position.

I'm also not sure about Gibson being the odd man out. Before his injury he was a big part of the offense.

This will not happen to us again

Posted by: AndyNJ | May 14, 2014 at 11:21 AM

Heh!
They should retire #19 altogether.
Seems like that number is bad luck.

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