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Does Tannehill get to 24 TDs again?

I do not gamble. I don't even play the lottery. I suggest you don't do it, either. But I study, with interest, the annual Las Vegas and Bovada over under numbers for team victories because those people are in business to make money and they often "know things," as Robert De Niro said in the movie.

The prop bets on player performance also seem interesting to me. The first one suggests the bookies don't buy that Ryan Tannehill can be much better (or worse) than last year when he threw 24 TD passes.

Here are Bovada's odds and over unders for individual Dolphins performances in 2014. You tell me, do you go over or under:

Ryan Tannehill - Total Passing Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               3900

Ryan Tannehill - Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               23½

Ryan Tannehill - Total Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               14½

Mike Wallace - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               950½ 

Mike Wallace - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               6

Brian Hartline - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               875½

Brian Hartline - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               3½

Charles Clay - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               625½

Charles Clay - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               5

Cameron Wake - Total Sacks in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                                           10½

Olivier Vernon - Total Sacks in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                               9½

Brent Grimes - Total Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season

Over/Under                                           3

 

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Ryan Tannehill 32 td passes, 11 ints, 5 rush tds, 45oo yards passing in 2014

OVER on everything

If we want to have a chance it has to be over. In fact between rushing and throwing I think it has to be AT LEAST 30 TDs.

I still need
bath saltz


.

lol

I think Mr Tannehill will struggle to stay fit this season, if I'm honest.

This whole training camp/pre season could just be a copy and paste from the previous 4 years:

"The offense struggles to get anything going, Cameron Wake is one of the best players in the NFL."

I feel that our only improvement, is that last year we beat some teams that finished above .500. However, we compensated by being swept by the Bills.

Posted by: dbo the great |.

No SACK over/under?

That would determine a lot more.

what was that somebody called you LOL? something like means Loser of Losers? LOL. can't wait to go to facebook users.

Everything I have read is from beat reporters is the exact opposite. Looks more consistent in practice, offense suits his strengths and O-line is drastically improved with a blocking RB to boot and depth at reciever.

He has no excuses this year. My expectations are the over on most categories.

We are solid in the D line but we are suspect in LBing and D backfield. Hickey is a good talent evaluator who is gaining my confidence at giant steps, Delmas, Finnegan, Ellerbe at the Sam, might work out and our D might be more solid than it is know. We just don't know for sure yet.

Clee:

I hope so!!

Would K I L L for a winning season.

I rewatched the Dallas game on NFL Network last night and was impressed with how Tannehill moved the team.

Yes his INT in the red zone was a horrible decision, but so was Moore's pick 6 INT.

The first team D is looking strong and will most likely keep us in every game. Lazor's scheme looks wide open with a strong emphasis on run first, spread the receivers and create mismatches in open space.

I saw many WR wide open and Tannehill hitting everyone with good accuracy. Many dropped balls cost them, including Hartline dropping a sure first down.

Conclusion: This team has the talent to go 10-6 if everyone stays healthy.

Ryan Tannehill - Total Passing Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 3900

Ryan Tannehill - Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 23½

Ryan Tannehill - Total Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season

Under 14½

Mike Wallace - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 950½

Mike Wallace - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Under 6

Brian Hartline - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 875½

Brian Hartline - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 3½

Charles Clay - Total Receiving Yards in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 625½

Charles Clay - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2014 Regular Season

Under 5

Cameron Wake - Total Sacks in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 10½

Olivier Vernon - Total Sacks in the 2014 Regular Season

Over 9½

Brent Grimes - Total Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season

Under 3

Over


Duh

I actually picked up Charles clay as a 2nd TE on my FF team. I hope he gets more involved

I would bet OVER on all 3 of Tannehill's categories. Interceptions included.

I would bet over for Wallace on his two categories

I would bet under for Hartline for yards. TDs I'd say is under, 3 would be the number I think he gets.

Clay is going over on both. Very underrated.

Wake and Vernon get over. Grimes gets under.

Ha Ha! You are SO Cambodian!

what about Brandon Gibson's over/under?

Posted by: dbo the great |
Slurp slurp.hehe

It hasn't been posted o/u on Landry o/u 2.5 for td's.

I expect every category to be better. I look for early season O struggles but better as season goes on. Prediction: Weakness at LB will NOT get better and possibly keep us out of the playoffs.

I see some sick individual trying to fantasize me

All under if TannePuke is the QB." except int's "
All OVER if Matt Moore is the QB." '^' '^' "


All under if TannePuke is the QB." except int's "
All OVER if Matt Moore is the QB." '^' '^' "

Posted by: Jefferson | August 28, 2014 at 11:38 AM

now that is funny ha ha.

what did you drop out of Jefferson High cause you couldn't get off the crack?

Mike Wallace definitely over 6

Except INTs

Shhhhiiiiieeeeet!

One of the DEs may also be under depending on who rackes 'em up the most this year. I will say Vernon under @ 9.


All the stats mean nothing if he can't win a game. How many touchdowns did he throw in the last 2 games of last season. Will 3 touchdowns in a game matter if he can't throw a 4th in the last two minutes to win a game. Stats are so misleading. If the defense doesn't play well, can he outscore the other team. Is there an over/under on how many TD's he misses because he can't hit Wallace deep. Give me a clutch QB over a stat padder. Andrew Luck may have similar stats, but how many think he can win a game at the end, compared to Tannehill who you hope has a lead and doesn't have to play catch up, and needs his defense to play at high level week in and week out.

On Armandys last "live blog" he posted 2 times. So I set his OVER/UNDER post on the next live blog at 3.

Over or Under???

MORE BOVADA PROP BETS

NFL MVP: No Dolphins listed (Geno & Decker 300/1)
NFL Rushing title: No Dolphins Listed
OFFENSIVE ROY: No Dolphins Listed
DEFFENSIVE ROY: No Dolphins Listed
FIRST COACH FIRED: Philbin is 3rd on list @ 7/1

Posted by: dolfnman | August 28, 2014 at 11:49 AM

Maybe tannehill scores 4 tds and gets a team a FG for 31 points but the opposing team scores 34. Is thath tannehill's fault? or maybe the defense?

He eclipsed both of those marks last year, why wouldn't he do it this year with a better line and hopefully a better run game to extend drives?

MIT,
Please reply to

opposing team scores 34. Is thath tannehill's fault? or maybe the defense?

Posted by: dbo the great | August 28, 2014 at 11:53 AM

fckface yea but I would bet on 100/1 tannehill leading in passing yards over geno&decker 300/1 NFL MVP anyday

24 passing TDs in today's you-can't-touch-the-qb-or-receiver NFL is nothing. The benchmark is 30, anything less that that is average to below average.

FCK FACE, if your scoring 31 points in a game chances are your more likely to win. if your D gives up more than 30 points your more likely to lose.

Posted by: dbo the great | August 28, 2014 at 11:57 AM

I was just pointing out that no one outside of this blog is impressed.

If Tanne was the QB of the Broncos or Pats he would be top-5 favorite in yards/tds/MVP

Tanny will be benched by game 4 in favor of Matt Moore.

Stop trying to conflate Tannehill of 2013 with 2014.

Sherman is gone, along with his dusty playbook. Gone also is the worst OL in franchise history!

We all agree that Tannehill will never be Manning or Brady...but he can be Flacco, which is an efficient game manager to get them into the playoffs where anything can happen.

Chris Mortensen @mortreport · 42s

Peyton Manning notified by NFL he is fined $8,200 for taunting of DJ Swearinger. No appeal. Peyton: "I accept it. Money well spent."

Here's hoping that clown Swearinger is suspended/fined.

MassD, 24 tds is exactly average. Not "NOTHING" as you say but an adequate #. It puts you in the top half of the league which I think is the objective here... to make Tannehill this year a top 15 qb. 25 tds is the minimum target I believe.

Posted by: dbo the great | August 28, 2014 at 11:59 AM

Dude you and I agree. MIT & I have had this discussion before and he believes firmly that if you're trailing 36-35 with 15 secs to go and the QB gets you in FG range with 3 secs to go and the defense blocks the kick that the QB of the losing team is 100% to blame.

Posted by: Nat Moore | August 28, 2014 at 12:01 PM

has matt moore ever reached 24 tds or 3900 passing yards ever in his 8 year career? and you think he can outperform tannehill? maybe you need to go back to Jefferson High and get That GED

25 ppg and 25 TD's gets us near the cut line for the playoffs.

...but keeping the INT's below 10 is the real goal along with the fumbles. Tannehill tends to give the rock away, but this preseason he's been solid.

ETF, if any qb posts over 20 completions on 33 attempts, for 247+ yards, 2 tds, one turnover or fewer, and a rating over 86.7 ... then the qb has done the minimum good job. This was the median point on all of those stats last year. If a qb outdoes that - then he had an above average day.

This being said if he does that against an NFL defense.

I agree with most of fellas. THill needs at least 30Tds and no more than 12 pics. If he gets 32TD and 12 picks Im going to go out on a limb and say we won at least 10 games maybe 11...

"We all agree that Tannehill will never be Manning or Brady..."

Posted by: NHFinsFan | August 28, 2014 at 12:02 PM

Dude I don't agree with that - I think Tanne will be a very prolific and high profile QB in the NFL as soon as he gets to his next team.

I think they will try to get the ball in Wallace's hand at least 100 - 110 times this year. So i think he should score at least 10 TD's.

ETF, if you are facing Appalachian State .. you are not expected to turn the ball over, if your completion rate is 51%, and you average 6.3 yards per throw at home against a team that is signficantly worse than yours ... and all that while being aided with 230+ rushing yards... yeah it is the Qbs fault.

Posted by: FckFace | August 28, 2014 at 12:05 PM

in that instance it can be situational. Like if your at the 10 yard line and the Qb overthrows a wide open receiver in the endzone to put the game away. but most likey the game plan is to get into FG range anyhow with a 1 point difference. BUT me personally would want to know who missed a blocking assignement on ST.

wallyfin...agreed! I see Wallace best in misdirections and bubble screens that get him in open space.
...sure he's a deep threat, but most of his TD's will come from short/underneath passes that he works into TD's.

Posted by: wallyfin | August 28, 2014 at 12:09 PM

Wally,
We tried to get the ball to Wallace 143 times last season, he caught 73 for 930 yds.

MIT,
I would say that QB was the only one prepared to play that game just like he was the only player prepared to play NE in the 2011 opener.

This 10-12 turnover stat is a little unrealistic.

Truth is the average turnover rate last year for Qbs in the NFL was one turnover (fumble + INT) 4.2% of pass attempts.

So the average comp attempts per game last year was 32.7. So 32.7 attempts per game X 16 games is 523 pass attempts per season... turnover rate at 4.2% = 22 turnovers (fumbles + INTs) per season.

You think that's high? It's not. Peyton Manning had 20 turnovers, Drew Brees had 18, Tom brady had 20.

Now if Tannehill has to pass anywhere near the amount of times he passed last year which was 36.8 times per game ... the maximum acceptable number of turnovers becomes 25.

that was Vontae davis fault. he took half the D to a strip club Saturday night. they all were dehydrated that game.

Last year my expectations for Tannehill was 4,000 total yards and 25 TDs between passing and rushing. He finished with 4,151 total yards and 25 total TDs on the head.

This year I have higher expectations again. I want to see the leap. I want to see him getting close to the top 10-15 QBs.

My expectations for 2015 are 4,500 total yards and 30 total TDs. I think those can be achieved in todays NFL. I would also like to see the Ints go down a bit to say around 15.

My deal on Tannehill is that I hope his 2013 numbers were not his career peek. He can not become a career 30td or less qb. If so, we'll never win more than 11gms with him as qb, and I'm talking if we had a strong run game and defense to compliment it.

Tannehill scares me. He isn't a bust, although 2-3gms a year he looks like one. Then there's maybe 2gms a year he looks like a franchise qb. Inbetween the two, he's plain average or playing down to the competition.

Last year proved when he's doing these things, at best, he's a 8-8 qb. That's the current problem with Tannehill as of yet. We can not declare him anything. neither boom nor bust.

hahaha, I think you're trolling ETF. You couldn't possibly believe henne was anywhere near adequate especially considering they were playing at home against a team that would never be ranked or even close to it and you are the #5 team in the country. Henne was a chief culprit in the greatest FBS choke of all time.

MIT, so I bump my INTS up to 12

The yardage and the tds is not the problem with Tannehill's numbers and where he needs to get the most improvement.

It's in his completion %, yards per attempt, and reduction in turnover rate. His TDs and yards were more than fine and hold up against those that are mentioned on NFL network 368 times per minute. For example they blow Colin Kaep's totals out of the water. And nobody here or ever would exchange even one unit of our offenses for theirs. NOt the line, not the backs, not the TE, and yes, not even the WRs.

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