« Here Comes Jacque Jones | Main | Lineups -- Marlins/Giants (Friday) »

Marlins at 46

       A euphoria surrounds the Marlins at the moment, and why not? They swept the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks, maintained their first-place hold in the division, and proved they can hang with the big boys after skeptics scoffed at their soft early schedule.

      They're 27-19, which is the second-best record any Marlins team has had at the 46-game mark. By comparison, only three previous Marlins clubs had winning records at this juncture, and each of those teams finished above .500.

      Year                 46-game Record                  Final Record (Outcome)

      1997                       28-18                              92-70 (Won WS)

      2004                       26-20                              83-79 (3rd in East)

      2005                       26-20                              83-79 (3rd in East)

      But a winning season is not automatic at this point. I examined the previous three seasons and found 21 teams -- exactly seven per year -- that had a record equal to or better than the Marlins' current 27-19 mark at this precise stage. Of those, 17 ended up with winning records and 10 -- not quite half -- reached the playoffs.

      Four of the quick starters from 2005-07 went into freefalls and landed below .500. Those teams were the 2005 Diamondbacks (from 27-19 to 77-85), the 2005 Orioles (from 30-16 to 74-88), the 2006 Reds (from 27-19 to 80-82), and the 2006 Diamondbacks (from 27-19 to 76-86).

     Anyone wish to take a stab at what the Marlins' final record will be, and why?

    

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Flavio

90-72, I hope

Loco

100-62, first 100-win season? If the pitching can hold up and people can stay healthy, its possible... especially if the defense continues to improve as it appears to, slowly, be doing

The comments to this entry are closed.