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Fast turnarounds not the norm for 100-loss teams

PHILADELPHIA -- Barring some unexpected surge of success over these final days, the Marlins will hit the 100-loss mark for the second time in franchise history, joining the wretched 1998 team that lost 108. The Marlins (55-95) must go 8-4 or better over their final 12 games to avoid the bad century mark, and if you've been watching them lately, you know that's not going to happen. (As a side note: the Marlins will clinch their third consecutive outright last-place finish with either a loss tonight or a Mets victory).

But getting back to the 100-loss thing....If you're under the assumption that things can only get better for the Marlins after this awful season, think again. Since 1993, the year the Marlins entered the big leagues, a total of 24 teams have suffered through 100-loss seasons. Five of those teams actually lost more games the following year. Only two managed to produce a winning season the following year, and neither of them (the 2009 Seattle Mariners and 2003 Kansas City Royals) won enough to make the playoffs.

The most sobering bit of information of all if you're a Marlins fan hoping for brighter days ahead: the 100-loss teams from 1993-2012 averaged 95 losses the following season. That's not good. Not good at all.

__________________

That it remains unknown precisely how many games the Marlins will end up losing this season, this much is certain: for the fourth straight season, they will lose more games this year than they did the previous year.

Year               Record

2009              87-75

2010              80-82

2011              72-90

2012              69-93

2013              ?????? (currently 95 losses)

Comments

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Sunny Dee

I'm confused. Didn't Samson say this team would be better than last year's team?

spitballer

Watching the Marlins is like following a awfully bad TV reality show.

manny

Samson was confused. Thinks he knows something about baseball.

Lou

Many people are not only under the assumption Marlins will be better, they have extrapolated the justifications. I really don't know if the Marlins will be better or not,the only thing I wish to thank the Marlins for is not hitting that 69 win total. When people who should know a whole Hell of a lot better decide that a fair number of games for the Marlins to win going into this season was 69, well at that point you just tip your hat(As Redmond would say) and say Thank You. I really thought they would win less than 50 so I was way off. If you take away the Main Man's 12-6, this really could have been an "historical" season.

smith&wessonoil

Boy, Flynn shows nothing!
The good news is that Cogs is looking very good at third.

georgeB

Clark-Nice piece about the rumors.Keep up the good work

richiej

about next year...where to start? this team has shown a lot of heart but heart is what is needed to complement talent. This team has a bunch of duplication of similar offensive players. Every team needs one or two versatile guys. Marlins have a bunch of them but they are all batting .220-.250 instead of .280-.290 and little or no power. Yellich looks like a keeper, but he is similar to Coghlin...outfielder/infielder, decent hitter with little or no power. There is Lucas, Solano and Dietrich. Dietrich has some power but he doesn't worship loria. Morrison is still a question mark for me. He shows power only some of the time and has not hit at the same level as he did when he first came up. Probably deserves a pass due to injuries and might do much better next year. Mathis is a great back up catcher but doesn't hit. Brantly??? Stanton, at time looks lost at the plate too often and is only a decent outfielder. Ozuna shows a lot of promise. Marisnick looks like he can't hit. Ruggiano has some power but swings at a lot of pitches that are out of the strike zone most of the time. The pitching has been a bright spot. I have to think that with a better offensive team, there would have been a lot of wins. This could have been a .500 team, maybe better. Where am I going wrong?

smith&wessonoil

With a better offense, this could have been a World Series team. But if my grandma had balls, she'd be my grandpa.

Beinfart

Theres alot to look forward to...Lorias Death and Samsom getting hit by a Greyhound

Stan M

Perhaps the only good thing that has happened regarding this team as of late is the more active interest the major media outlets are showing in Loria's foibles. Let us hope it becomes a crescendo. It's really the only hope we have for any real improvement.
Richie, that's a good post, my only personal comment would concern Yelich' power. I think he has more than you are crediting him with...gap power, which is exactly what this team needs. Does anyone besides myself question Stanton's eyesight. Something is wrong. No 4 year power hitting veteran ever takes so many strikes right down the heart of the plate. Contrary to what is sometimes written, they don't pitch around him at all. Granted he is sometimes walked, but when actually pitched to, they go right to those gaps in his swing...the low outside slider and the fastball in on his hands, and it works all too often.
Lou, we must continue to explain why Pierre should retire. He has been a hitting fool since we both brought out the wheelchair to take him away to retirement. Are we a couple of knowledgeable experts, or what? Don't answer that.

Lee Stoops

The Marlins MVP has to be Allison Williams. Put that girl in the TV booth!

rfdtd@aol.com

If you are a baseball fan and you live down here this season has been a travesty.

The negative record is secondary to the horrible content which other than the "kid" is unwatchable.

Worse still, the madman behind this mess is still in control which provides for no hope.

Thank God for the MLB Network!

Al-Kendall

Although against stats, the disaster of a season would have been even worse without the incredible Fernandez season. The team will only be better next season with great comebacks from both Morrison and Stanton, who have not played a full season or produced above replacements.

Marlin Fan

As far as next year , ASSUMING WE SIGN NO ONE OF VALUE from another team ( let's be honest , no one in their right mind would want to , AND the Marlins are not going to pay anyway ) , here's just some opinions . PITCHING , other than Fernandez who is an ace an a stud , there's no no. 2 or 3 in my mind . Alvarez maybe by default gets the number two . Turner and Eovaldi , even though young , have been inconstant . Again by default a no. 3 and 4 . Koelher by default a 5 . Hand and Flynn are not MLB pitchers . I know of the three we have in the minors , maybe one of them will step it up to become part of the rotation . Middle relief , I'm ok with Quialls , Ramos , and Dunn , maybe Webb . Jennings and others again consistency . Chishek as the closer .
Position players Cather Mathis , but because of his lack of hitting , I wouldn't want him to play more than 100 games or so. Brantly took a huge step backwards this year . I think hr needs to regain his confidence and swing . I do believe he can hit , unfortunately he's no where close to Mathis defensively and calling a game . 1 st , Lomo by default . It would be nice to see him play in even 120-130 games . I'm not sold in his power , and he still needs improvement defensively . 2nd I like Solano, unless Dietrich can hit for an avg at some point . SS Hechavarria . 3b Coughlan , again staying healthy . Keep Lucas as a versatile utility guy . LF Yelich , Cf either Ruggiano or Ozuna , both need improvement , but Ruggiano plays good defense and can hit for power and steal bases . Ozuna ultimately has the much higher upside at his age . Rf Stanton. Again hoping he can play in 130-140 games a year and stay MOTIVATED and FOCUSED throughout .

JUAN YANES

Everyone speak about the Marlins Players for the next season but I haven't see nobody speak about the Manager. The Marlins need a manager with skills in the game strategies; examples: hit and run, pinch hitter to get score run(doesn't matter who is at bat); apply stadistic when make a line up, and so far. I Think this will be the choice to bring the appropriate guy.

Stan M

Juan, you are so right.

smith&wessonoil

Posters here keep talking about how no one in his right mind would want to sign with the Marlins in the offseason and they are correct, but that is really a non-issue. There are very, very few if any free agents available who could help the Fish improve, so if they acquire anybody of consequence, it will be by trade and then it won't matter whether they want to play for the Marlins or not, they will be stuck here.

spitballer

Stan...you may get your wish on Redmond...it's being reported that Jeffery is still upset with Redmond for not backing Tino. Maybe Loria should just put on a uniform & get in the dugout. He can be the manger on record, instead of doing it from the stands. Who was the last owner/manager in baseball???

richiej

I think loria is still paying Ozzie over $2 million a year. would he also pay Redmond for not managing? who would want to work for loria, other than a rookie manager? I think there are a few managers indanger of being let go, but would any of them take a job in Miami?

Camera Mike

Spitballer, I may be mistaken but I believe the last owner/manager was a one night only affair and was one of the few owners who may have a bigger ego than Loria, Ted Turner in the late 70's.

I was going to add my two cents about next years prospects but don't think I can add anything new to the great comments from Richiej, Stan, Marlin Fan, and Juan. Great work guys.

Stan M

What I do not understand:
This team sadly lacks offense. Two players who have shown that they could hit in the past and have good upsides as hitters are Coghlan and LoMO. So why in the name of all that matters is Lucas playing in their stead. Lucas is an excellent extra piece and has shown that he has value as an worthwhile sub. However, this team isn't going anywhere with him as a regular. But maybe, just maybe, this team could show considerable improvement if LoMo and Coghlan come back to their former levels. Play them, Redmond. Find out!!!

Here is a prediction from an old man who has seen it all and loved most of it. Eovaldi, barring an injury, will have a career that will come close to Jose's, and should eclipse Beckett and AJ Burnett. Every time I watch him, all I see is potential greatness.

Agree with you, S & W about free agents. The only one that would fit and not break the bank is that Salty guy who catches for the Red Sox. Otherwise, if Stanton goes, he better bring back a first rate ML, right hand hitting catcher.

Frisaroito

Lomo cant hit his way out of a rubber..Nice HR Lucas

rbleigh

Hope this year's version of Stanton is an abberation or everyday that infinite trade value becomes more and more finite and definite.

rbleigh

I mentioned on B Jackson's beat that Loria can't wait to hire Billy Martin as his manager so like Steinbrennar he can fire and hire him again. Oh wait, Martin has been dead for 25yrs but no one told Loria. Jeffry you are no George and these Marlins are no Yankees. Dang, I did and said it again, sorry fish fans.

Clark I give you a lot of credit for being able to follow this AAAA team and bush league owner everyday.

Stan M

Look at the Pirates box score. Their pitcher, Morton,
pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 hits, struck out nine and had only put 5 men on base with 99 pitches. So the manager pulls him for a closer! What! Why! In this case they pinch hit for him in the ninth, but why? He had a 2 run lead and was possibly pitching his best game of the year. That nonsense just might have cost them the wild card. In my opinion, there is just too much of this. If the pitcher in the game is going great guns, why replace him? This whole "save situation" crap has so often screwed up the game. It's artificial, it's unnecessary, and it's probably fueled by player agents more than tactical necessity.

Flav C.

I remember when the Marlins had a coach in 2007 that fans used to say: "he doesn't know how to coach", "he is too old school". "too bureaucratic", "no hit and runs", etc...Granted, it was his 1st season as a coach of a major league team but people couldn't care less.
He went on to give the Marlins 2 consecutive winning seasons with a very low payroll. Funny how some things do not change.

Maybe the reason why Lucas is starting is because Coghlan is hitting .216 in September and Morrison is hitting .176 (.143 last 7 days). On the other hand, Lucas is hitting .321. This should be a no-brainer if i were a manager willing to stop a losing skid.

I also think you are all being way to fast on Brad Hand and Flynn. Maybe Hand is not apt to be a starter but he has all the making of a very good long-reliever out of the bullpen. Actually he has yet to surrender a run as a reliever since called up. If you don't agree with me, take a look at how Boston reivented Andrew Miller as their lefty specialist. Take a look at his two last seasons out of the bullpen. Same thing can be done with Brad Hand.
Flynn got shelled but had a lot of composure to go 6 innings and took one for the team. His fastball was on 93 mph constantly (past 2 games never crossed the 90 mph) and his slider was a lot better. He showed too much of an upside both at AA and AAA level to simply say after 3 starts "he is no major league material".
What people do not mention is that he never pitched more than 150 innings before in a season, and that was at a minor league level. Now here he is with more than 170 innings, pitching deep into September at a major league level. Just food for thought.

Stan M

Flav, we know what Lucas can do and his position next year is already solidified. We still have a lot more to learn about LoMo and Coghlan. The outcome of the games is now irrelevant. If these guys can't hit, especially against LH pitchers, we have the opportunity to find out more in these last few games. For example; should the team actually use what amounts to limited funds for that Cuban slugger who only plays 1B? Lucas is a tree, they are the forest. The same principle holds true for Marisnick and Ruggiano. What is being learned by playing Ruggiano for these last few games. He can be an excellent #4 outfielder...period. Marisnick could be a star...or need another year in AAA ball. More can be learned now than in Spring Training. This is no time to give up on either Hand or Flynn, The latter lead his AAA league in ERA. There has to be talent there. Petit with SF is another pitcher that the Marlins had and let go. By coach in 2007, I assume you mean manager and that Buda who sat in our dugout looking for all the world like he was wondering whether someone would please tell him what to do next. A team can have a winning season and still underperform. Those teams did.
Not hitting goes beyond the Marlins. Last night in key games, the Red Sox, Pirates, Reds, and Yankees all started 4 position players with BA below .250. I find that amazing and probably indicative of the new outlook on PEDS.

Stan M

How important are the new defensive statistics? A quick check shows that Hech is not rated very highly. Anyone who watched last night's game, that is, all 3 of us, could watch Hech's performance and see how relevant those new stats are.

Flav C.


Stan,

I'd recommend anyone to read about how the Pirates, Rays, Orioles (among others) changed their defensive approach around by utilizing defensive sabermetrics, and the tremendous impact it has been having in their results and how relevant they are, including receiving praise from old school people inside those organizations.

After that, you might want to re-think what you wrote.

By the way, Hech is not rated very highly because:

1 - Number of errors he caused and runs generated out of those errors.
2 - When runners of opposing team were in scoring position, errors in positioning by Hech or not turning a double-play efficiently allowed runners to end up scoring.

By the way, the play where he robbed the Phillies from a run last night, that is the typical play that has a positive impact in his stats. That is a clear example of "Defensive Run Saved".

Stan M

Flav, my point is that one's eyes can also show the difference between a good, average and poor defender. I have little problem with the offensive stats with the exception that the stat heads don't seem to realize that the team with the most wins gets the prize, not the team with the most RARs etc. In my opinion the defensive stats still need a great deal of work and there are areas that simply can't be quantified. Last year many stat heads felt that Trout was the MVP based on the huge disparity in RARs. The concept was both ridiculous and irrelevant for had Miggy not agreed to move to 3B (and many current players refuse to change positions where they will not look their best) Detroit could not have signed Fielder and that can't be measured with numbers.
Hech shows qualities as a fielder that I haven't seen since Ozzie and Roy McMillian. That athleticism can't be codified.
Are you confusing the new methods teams are using to position players defensively with the respective range and effectiveness of the individual players. In my opinion, there is a great difference. And I would be in complete accord with the new positioning techniques. Years ago, there was a bare spot in RF at Shea stadium that was called "the Strawberry patch" because that is where he stood all the time. Much has been learned since those times of old. Think about this. The SS is between 2B and 3B all the time. Should he move to between 1B and 2B for left h+6and hitters?

lose fat

Fast turnarounds not the norm for 100-loss teams | Fish Bytes

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