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1 posts from April 7, 2014

April 07, 2014

Yes, it's early. But…

The Marlins are off today and heading up to D.C., where they'll begin a three-game set against the Nationals on Tuesday, and they're taking a 5-2 record with them. After one week, they lead the majors in runs scored, rank second in hitting, and own the fifth-best staff ERA.

World Series, here they come? Of course not.

Put on your choir robes and say it all at once: "It's early."

And indeed it is. It's way too early to go making predictions (spelling corrected) based on the first seven games of 162.

But take a look at how Marlins teams of the past have ended up based on their first-week results and you should notice a trend. Marlins teams that start poorly usually remain that way. And those that jump out to good starts, well...take a look.

Here are the best seven-game starts in Marlins history, along with each team's final record:

Year        First 7         Final

1997         6-1            92-70 (Won World Series)

2004         6-1            83-79

2009         6-1            87-75

2007         5-2            71-91

2014         5-2            ???????

Now take a look at the worst seven-game starts in Marlins history:

Year        First 7         Final

1995         1-6            67-76

1998         1-6            54-108

2006         1-6            78-84

2013         1-6            62-100

Get the picture? Other than the 2007 season, when the Marlins started 5-2 but finished 20 games below .500, a strong start has been an indicator of a good season -- at least by Marlins standards. Likewise, awful starts have always led to awful seasons, with one exception: 2003. That team started 2-5 but brought the franchise its second World Series title.

Still, history would suggest that the prospects for the rest of the season for the Marlins appear far brighter at 5-2 than the other way around.

What do you think?