« VIDEO: Mike Redmond talks Saturday's 5-0 win over Padres, Jose Fernandez's night | Main | Derek Dietrich miffed that fielding muff given to teammate »

Yes, it's early. But…

The Marlins are off today and heading up to D.C., where they'll begin a three-game set against the Nationals on Tuesday, and they're taking a 5-2 record with them. After one week, they lead the majors in runs scored, rank second in hitting, and own the fifth-best staff ERA.

World Series, here they come? Of course not.

Put on your choir robes and say it all at once: "It's early."

And indeed it is. It's way too early to go making predictions (spelling corrected) based on the first seven games of 162.

But take a look at how Marlins teams of the past have ended up based on their first-week results and you should notice a trend. Marlins teams that start poorly usually remain that way. And those that jump out to good starts, well...take a look.

Here are the best seven-game starts in Marlins history, along with each team's final record:

Year        First 7         Final

1997         6-1            92-70 (Won World Series)

2004         6-1            83-79

2009         6-1            87-75

2007         5-2            71-91

2014         5-2            ???????

Now take a look at the worst seven-game starts in Marlins history:

Year        First 7         Final

1995         1-6            67-76

1998         1-6            54-108

2006         1-6            78-84

2013         1-6            62-100

Get the picture? Other than the 2007 season, when the Marlins started 5-2 but finished 20 games below .500, a strong start has been an indicator of a good season -- at least by Marlins standards. Likewise, awful starts have always led to awful seasons, with one exception: 2003. That team started 2-5 but brought the franchise its second World Series title.

Still, history would suggest that the prospects for the rest of the season for the Marlins appear far brighter at 5-2 than the other way around.

What do you think?

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Dionysus Thelxinoe

I think I believe in the old adage that you're never as good as you look when you're hot and you're never as bad as you look when you're not.

The Marlins are averaging 6 runs per game so far, with twice as many runs as the opposition, giving them the biggest run differential in the majors right now. This is compared to last year's average of 3.17 runs per game. Reality is that, aside from 7 games being too small a sample size, San Diego and Colorado are pretty bad teams, especially on the road. However, a win is a win, and they count the same whether it's against Houston or Boston.

I think this team will have far exceeded expectations if they finish .500. A 19-game improvement at their budget is huge. But let's at least wait until they come back from their western swing which ends May 18 and see where they are at that point before we start printing playoff tickets.

hayu

Clark...I don't want to sound like DT, but what's a "predictation." Is that what you do to your secretary before you dictate your blog?
I do agree that it's way too early to make one.

Clark S.

I do not mind having spelling and grammar police since, as most have probably already surmised, these blogs aren't read by editors and journalists are known to be rotten spellers in general (not to mention that I was schooled in Kentucky, but that's another issue). So I'll fix. Thanks -- Clark

Dionysus Thelxinoe

Clark and hayu, I apologize for that compulsion. I can only offer the excuse that I read and correct a lot of papers for a local institution of alleged higher learning. Old habits and all that.

Dionysus Thelxinoe

But I'll make a deal with ...

If you can get Manny to put on a shirt and change out his sweatshirt picture, I'll resign as a spelling and grammar policeman.

spitballer

I made my optimistic prediction before the season started....88-74. Marlins take the second wild card.
Only 83 wins to go!

hayu

DT...Only joking. I suffer from the same compulsion, and a lot of my friends would like to kick my butt for it. But what the heck — right is right and wrong is wrong, and never the twain shall meet.

Joel

What Clark means about the Kentucky schooling reference is that they were ranked 49th in education when he was a pup, ahead of only Mississippi. I'm guessing they're a little higher now, what with the education lottery. As for the start, I'm still worried about the pitching...

Camera Mike

We all know and Clark and DT have stated that 7 games is way to small a sample size to draw any fair conclusions on how the season will go, but that doesn't mean we cannot fully enjoy this 7 game sample. I know I enjoyed watching the games.

Like DT I know we are not as good as we look right now but based on the more aggressive attitude the team is showing at the plate and the far more positive attitude we have seen from the players I do feel confident that this will be a far different year from the last one. It's true that we can still have a rough year and finish significantly below .500, but unlike last year I am seeing increased growth, maturity, and confidence in this years squad where outside of Jose Fernandez there was zip on all accounts last season. All that being said though I think we will learn a lot more about the 2014 Marlins in this upcoming road series against a good team then we did in the last two home series against poor teams.

Clark, as for the spelling and grammatical mistakes I cannot make any comments as I am sure my posts here and regularly filled with both types of errors.

Stan M

If we can play .500 ball over these next two stops, I will be immensely encouraged. Even 2-4 wouldn't be too bad. These next two stops aren't named San Diego or Colorado. Rather, they will help determine how the Marlins will fare against the NL East. And DT's post at the top was right on target.

hayu

DT...I watched the video and highly recommend it to anyone else who enjoys a good prank.

Dionysus Thelxinoe

Yeah, it was laugh out loud funny. All in good fun, too.

yelnats

DT, have you seen this one?
I'm sure this will get pulled, but worth a shot....No pun intended
(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));
Post by Amazing and Crazy videos.

yelnats
Dionysus Thelxinoe

hilarious!

Camera Mike

Did you guys hear about Heath Bell's latest control issues? Yesterday while attempting to throw a sinker he it Omar Infante in the face. Infante's jaw was cut and he needed six stitches though happily the Royals are listing his injury as non-concussive so it looks like he escaped serious injury. I hope Infante isn't too sore today (though he almost surely is unfortunately) and recuperates soon. And this is just another reason why I am glad to be rid of Bell and his ability to throw nothing but balls and hits with no strikes and few outs to be seen. I cannot wait until the team is done actually paying him.

Dionysus Thelxinoe

I saw the replays on mlb.com and it looked to me (esp. at 1:29) like that pitch was aimed there by Bell. AL pitchers don't have to bat so what do they have to worry about.

Camera Mike

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one DT. I just watched the replay myself and I'm willing to give Bell the benefit of the doubt on this one. You are correct that AL pitchers have less to fear and if anyone has a list of amount of hit batters by league I'd be interested in seeing it to find out if there is anything to the DH effecting their beanings.

To me it looked like Bell was attempting a breaking ball which wouldn't be the case if he were throwing at Infante intentionally. Also while he certainly is incompetent on the mound I don't recall any instances of him retaliating against a team or batter nor do I think there was a beef between him and Infante.

As for your post on the next blog about Micah Owings the Brewers and Nationals did experiment with him in the outfield.

The comments to this entry are closed.