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Gameday IV: at Louisville

It's a rainy night in Louisville. A rainy night in Indy. Feels like it's raining all over the world...

And that would be a good thing for FIU. A clean track with perfect conditions favors the better team. That's Louisville, I think we all would agree. Upsets often start in the muck.

But, let's be real. The only way FIU, the biggest underdog since Hardee's took up the fight with McDonald's after Burger Chef fell, causes the college football world to have The Big One and join Elizabeth en masse is to win a shootout on the scoreboard. Forget the run -- 65 yards per game and they couldn't get a good push on Bethune-Cookman. They're not pounding Louisville unless the stout Cardinals front seven plays on rollerblades. Today, FIU should confine the running game to the draw play, the scramble and the rollout keeper.

FIU needs sophmore quarterback E.J. Hilliard to cone out slinging like Old Testament David crossed with Sonny Sixkiller. They need a big catch-and-fly from DeAndre Jasper and maybe a bomb or two to T.J. Lowder. A big special teams play would help greatly. Last year's game -- surprisingly close in the wet -- turned Louisville's way when Sam Miller fumbled a punt after a three-and-out, the Cardinals recovered and 14-14 got to 28-14 quickly. 

Defensively, they're more likely to get a fumbled reception than an interception off Bridgewater, although they got two last year. Whatever, when the ball's not secured, the Panthers need to go for it. Louisville wants to get their run game going. The Cardinals also don't want to let FIU hang around. Expect Teddy Bridgewater to come out firing to build a lead, then the Cardinals work the run to exhaust the clock and get the ground game tuned.

This isn't hard, folks. No need to spend too much time or detail on it. Louisville's a mature football team with a very good offense, a strong defensive line and possibly the best quarterback in college football. The Cardinals own a clear advantage in all but a couple of matchups. And they're at home.

Bigger upsets have happened. Just don't expect me to predict this to be one of them.

Louisville 47, FIU 10.

But that's just one black man's opinion. I could be wrong.

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