In FIU's four wins under Ron Turner, the Panthers pounced on 20 turnovers. That's five per game for those of you as mathematically short synapsed as Mike Russo (truly great reporter, very good writer, but the man can barely count change). Five turnovers a game. That's a lot. Two ways to look at that:
1. FIU's defense and special teams are among the nation's best at creating kiloton plays that swing a fight and crush opposing morale.
2. Five turnovers a game is a dicey way to thrive.
It reminds me a bit of organized crime wiseguys, the Henry Hills, the Jimmy Burkes, the guys like Lefty working under Sonny Red and Sonny Black. Maybe it's that I just watched the 30 for 30 documentary on the Boston College point shaving scandal that involved Hill and Burke. It's a throwaway line in GoodFellas, but a whole chapter in the source material, Nicolas Pileggi's book Wiseguy.
Anyway, street wiseguys must always hustle. They live off their schemes much as the Panthers live off their turnovers. Kids have to eat, wife has to dress, side chick needs to be taken care of and you can't give Tony Soprano or Paulie Cicero a light envelope come tribute time, when you pay up the food chain. So, they always have to have several schemes going -- loan-sharking here, extortion there, hijacking here, there, everywhere. Have a bad week? Bills still need to be paid. Points still need to be made.
In five games, Texas-San Antonio's thrown only six interceptions. The Roadrunners have fumbled only seven times and lost only one. Seven turnovers in five games, 1.4 per game. And, here's FIU forcing 3.5 turnovers per game this season, 4.2 per game in the last five games, 5.0 turnovers in the wins over the last two years and a defensive touchdown in each win this season.
That's the concerning statistical matchup today for the Panthers. If UTSA can keep the ball, can FIU produce enough offense and make enough defensive stops, especially in the red zone. If they need to, can the Panthers' pay the bills by getting a square job?
That's what UTSA wants to find out. The Roadrunners games don't feature much on special teams. Few turnovers either way. It's long-field offense vs. long-field defense both ways.
Maybe FIU keeps the cash stream of turnovers flowing and the Roadrunners, already on a four-game losing streak, sink into a depression.
You'd think having 20 returning starters and a national-high 36 seniors would shoot immunity to such emotions into UTSA. Only seven games left in your football lives, there's no point to spending much of it in the dumps. But this season's been disappointing already, particularly the last two weeks with a come-from-ahead loss to FAU and a face-plant against New Mexico.
UTSA's mental maturity didn't concern Turner as much as their physical maturity.
"You can tell seniors and juniors dominated," he said Tuesday. "And they've spent a lot of time in the weight room. They are very, very strong and very physical, both offensively and defensively up front and physical. Defensive line looks like Pitt up front."
That said, FIU moved the ball on Pitt, especially when going with the hurry up offense to make those big bodies move in the South Florida heat. The climate-controlled Alamodome takes away atmospheric help and forces freshman quarterback Alex McGough to run an offense in front of his first raucous college crowd. A gathering of 30,000 gassed up by day-long liquoring-up might be the Roadrunners best defense. UTSA's given up 7.3 yards per pass attempt, a 56.9 percent completion rate and allowed 41 percent of third downs to be converted.
What I wondered after that Turner description of UTSA's lines: would UTSA try to just buffalo FIU, as Pitt did? Look, only Pitt really stood up and pounded FIU's defense all game. You know the 411 on the decisive 4:11 of the Louisville game. The Cardinals scored FIU-style -- interception return, athletic cab-ride-long play, blown coverage big play. They didn't run the ball particularly well on FIU. Pitt ran the ball with big people slamming and pulling, leading the way for big-but-not-as-big ball carriers. They were Budweiser in the original Bud Bowl.
The Roadrunners I saw, against Arizona, didn't look much like Pitt. Turner said the same thing.
"They do a lot of shifting, a lot of motion, a lot of different plays and schemes," Turner said. "They're a veteran team, they should be able to do that."
But, he also said, "They're very efficient. Offensviely, put together a lot of long scoring drives. Unlike a lot of people in college football nowadays, who score in a minute and a half. These guys are averaging 3:30 scoring."
Why? Because they don't turn the ball over and are patient. That's what maturity does for you. FIU demonstrated offensive patience last week, a sign of growth in a young offense. And UTSA doesn't get turnovers -- only eight in five games.
If FIU sees this freshman quarterback Blake Bogenschutz today and UTSA stays with spreading the field, I say the Panthers feast just enough defensviely and land some monster blows offensively. Regular quarterback Tucker Carter's no Kolton Browning, but he won't give it up the way Bogenschutz would.
The Vegas crowd likes UTSA 27-17, 24-14, something in that area. It is tough to expect a young offense to have three consecutive solid performances without a diaper-filler in there somewhere. If I'm sitting in a sportsbook, I'd avoid this game like a Chinese food buffet without a sneeze guard. Watch it, don't bet it.
Very tough call. UTSA 24, FIU 13.
But that's one black-Irish-and-Native American man's opinion. I could be wrong.
Former FIU forward Tymell Murphy will work out soon for the Orlando Magic's NBA Developmental Leauge team. He's also got a workout scheduled for the Heat's D-League team.