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Florida State 12th in BCS, Massey Computer Poll Ranks FSU 40th

Florida-state-seminoles

The BCS rankings came out a little earlier tonight and the Florida State Seminoles moved up two spots in the rankings from 14th to 12th.

The top five are Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame.

This morning the other polls came out and the two BCS polls of note, the Harris and Coaches' polls each had Florida State at 10th. The AP had the Seminoles 11th.

The computer polls on the other hand are not buying the Seminoles as contenders.

While those polls had less of an impact this go-round than they did last time, the Seminoles are still being weighed down by their computer average. FSU was ranked an average of 29th last week, this weekend the computers have moved them into the top 25 and they are ranked an average of 21.75 by the computer polls.

It may have been a lot worse if the BCS didn't drop a team's best and worst computer score. Massey has Florida State as the 40th best team in the nation.

Who does the Massey computer poll think would beat FSU? Mid-major teams like Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Tulsa and the mighty Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. All five schools are ranked ahead of Florida State in the Massey computer poll.

Now, even with Florida State's road struggles, with their embarrassing loss to NC State and with their cupcake schedule (which nobody ever mentions originally included WVU, though that's much less impressive these days), does anybody actually believe one of those teams would beat the Seminoles?

I don't know the exact formula that Massey uses to compute their rankings, but essentially it comes down to this: every team starts at zero, margin of victory doesn't matter, win-loss records count and so does strength of schedule. How they all average it out is a bit of a mystery (as in not stated anywhere), but given the other parameters you get the idea that strength of schedule is highly emphasized. In fact, on the Massey website, their rankings list just two categories, record and strength of schedule.

If you needed a perfect example of how a computer can miss the point, look no further. 

Perhaps maybe even a better illustration of just how unique the Massey poll is, FSU is 40, the team they beat last night, Miami, is 41. To the Massey poll, even despite Florida State winning on the road by two scores, even despite one team being 7-1 and one team being 4-4, there is a neglible difference in their rankings.

And neither program has anything on a handful of unranked (save Ohio) mid-majors.

I'm beginning to understand why Jimbo Fisher doesn't like computers.

Comments

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bubbleRefuge

By the same token if FSU can run the table and win the ACC, there will be less drag on their BCS score from the computer rankings which should give them a nice boost. Also, lots of SEC teams ahead of them play each other so that will factor in. Could it be that there is too much parody in the ACC which makes it look much worse than it actually is?

Bill from Texas

Just keep winning.

Brandon

Bcs is a joke. Decide this on the field. All sports pro college high school decide champions based on what they do on the field. Not what some computer thinks. Really Miami one behind Florida State? Yeah ok. Playoff is the only viable option.

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