Conservatives: Palin supporters, black Obama voters will help pass Florida's gay marriage ban

BY MARY ELLEN KLAS, meklas@MiamiHerald.com

TALLAHASSEE -- The ballot measure to ban same-sex marriage in Florida continues to be in trouble, a new poll released Monday by Quinnipiac University found, so promoters are now pinning their hopes on presidential politics to push them over the top.

The poll found Florida voters support the same-sex marriage ban by 55-41 percent, but that falls short of the 60 percent needed to become law.

Supporters say that both Sarah Palin, the right-leaning Alaskan governor credited for firing up the Republican's conservative base, and the historic candidacy of Democrat Barack Obama will bring out more proponents of Amendment 2.

''Palin may turn out more conservative voters who might have stayed home,'' said Steve Strang, founder of Orlando-based Charisma Magazine for evangelicals. ``If they support Sarah Palin, they most likely will vote on this amendment.''

OBAMA SUPPORTERS

Meanwhile, Obama will draw black voters ''who know and understand this issue,'' said John Stemberger, president and general counsel of the Florida Family Policy Council, which is promoting the Yeson2 campaign.

The poll of 1,427 Florida voters was conducted Sept. 2-4 and has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. Amendment 2 would define marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman.

Although same-sex marriage is already illegal in Florida, the amendment enshrines it in the constitution and prevents the establishment of civil unions by adding that ``no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized.''

Voters have clearly made up their mind on the issue, according to the poll, with only 4 percent of those surveyed reporting that they are undecided. Democrats opposed the measure 51-45 percent, while Republicans support it 76-21 percent. Independents oppose it almost as much as Democrats with a 51-44 percent margin.

''There's never been a poll that showed this amendment passing -- not from the day they announced they were going to put it on the ballot through today,'' said Derek Newton, campaign manager for Florida Red and Blue, the bipartisan organization running the SayNo2 campaign.

Similar amendments have been approved in 27 other states and it is also on the ballot in November in California and Arizona. Florida is the only state that requires a 60 percent threshold for passage.

`A BIT SURPRISING'

''The 55 percent level of support for the same-sex marriage ban is a bit surprising given that similar amendments have passed in a dozen states,'' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac Polling Institute. ``But backers have eight weeks to close that five-point gap by changing some minds and winning over undecided voters.''

Stemberger predicts ''it's going to be close'' but he believes that Florida voters will do what voters have done elsewhere and show up in higher numbers in support of the amendment than they are willing to admit to pollsters.

''I even think that Obama is helping us,'' Stemberger said. ``The fact that there's a huge number of black American[s] . . . who see this as a moral issue, a human issue, will help us.''

Obama has said he opposes the ban. McCain has endorsed the proposal in Arizona.

Newton, whose organization has raised $2 million to run ads to tell voters that the same-sex ban will outlaw all legal domestic partnerships, said he believes the more voters learn, the more they'll disagree with the amendment.

''We've seen it happen in other states and we expect it to happen here,'' he said.

Stemberger said those tactics worked once in Arizona but won't work in Florida because they are false. ''We crafted the language so that it wouldn't interfere with domestic partnerships, but they continue to make the argument anyway,'' he said.

Comments

[banshiii]

What a crock of crap this amendment it. If Florida voters are not smart enough to vote no on this amendment, we deserve what we get.