For a state that prides itself on mirroring the nation, Florida is still far more John McCain-happy than the rest of the USA.
According to the grand-daddy of all polls, Gallup, Barack Obama has pulled way outside the error-margin nationwide against McCain, holding a solid lead of 50-42. Yet in Florida, Obama trails McCain 47.6 to 46 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.com's average of the prior seven polls. Though there is no error-margin on these polling averages, it's likely this is basically a tie. And McCain's polling "lead" in the averages would be even smaller had it not been for SurveyUSA's 51(McCain)-45(Obama) results. Also, today's ARG poll showing Obama up isn't yet listed, either.
Here's what Gallup's national poll and the Florida poll averages agree on: McCain started falling here and across the country by Sept. 16, as news of the economic shock sunk in. Check out the fever grafs of RealClearPolitics and Gallup.
Though the polls clearly show Obama-mo, they also indicate that the race is erratic. Holding leads in this political race is vestigial. As soon as the economic crisis quiets, it could be safe to assume there's a good chance of increased support for McCain, who has largely driven the storylines of the election (remember Paris, inflating tires, and pig lipstick, etc?) just as he dictated the pace of Friday's debate.
More here on all the polls, etc.