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Insider Advantage has Obama up 49-46

Insider Advantage asked 532 likely voters on Sept. 30 who they'd vote for and Barack Obama was up 49 percent to John McCain's 46 percent.

Atlanta-based Pollster Matt Towery said the difference was among men and independents, where McCain lost ground. Towery points out a little trick he's watched among the over-polled public: "Nearly 20 percent of African-American respondents tell us they were voting for McCain. This is usual for our surveys of states in the Southesat and we almost always see the African-American column collapse to the Democrat by the last week.''

That means trouble for McCain, he says. It could be offset if independent voters break for the Republican because now they're tied. "If McCain recaptures independents, he can turn Florida around in a hurry,'' he said.

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