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488 posts from October 2008

October 31, 2008

Jeb's Spanish-language ad for McCain

Listen to Gov. Jeb Bush extol Republican presidential nominee John McCain on Spanish-language radio: Download lpolitical_pres_mcc08ra140_jeb_bush_103008012.mp3

Poll: Obama ahead or tied in 3 solid Bush districts -- including Mario Diaz-Balart's

A new poll in 3 competitive congressional districts that George Bush won by more than 8 points shows Barack Obama tied or ahead of John McCain.

Obama trailed McCain by 9 points or more in polls conducted between March and July in the congressional districts represented by GOP'ers Mario Diaz-Balart and Tom Feeney and Democrat Tim Mahoney.

But he's now either tied or ahead in the 3 districts in polls conducted Oct. 8-22. And in the heavily Jewish and Democratic district represented by Rep. Ron Klein, Obama leads by 24 points today after leading by only 9 percentage points in May.

The polls were conducted by Hamilton Campaigns for the Democratic congressional campaigns in each district.

"Obama's increased support in some of the most competitive districts in Florida underscore the recent movement in statewide polling," said David Beattie, president of Hamilton Campaigns.

Sheriff candidate: black pastors support me

Scott Israel, the Democratic candidate for Broward sheriff, will hold a presser this afternoon at Word of the Living God in Pompano Beach to announce the endorsement of eight black pastors.

Federal tax law  prohibits nonprofits -- including churches -- from participating in political campaigns on behalf of candidates, but religious leaders can make endorsements personally.

Israel is in a competitive race against Republican Sheriff Al Lamberti. The presser today is an attempt for Israel to shore up support from one of his bases: black voters.

A poll released earlier this week showed that Lamberti is 10 percentage points ahead but Israel is winning about 61 percent of the black vote. The poll was done by Jim Kane for browardbeat.com, a political blog.

Both Lamberti and Israel are white.  Israel has reached out to black voters by highlighting endorsements from black elected officials and attacking Lamberti for hiring an all-white transition team.

Nearly half of the employees at BSO are minorities.

The black pastors who will announce their endorsements of Israel include: Bishop Darnell  Mack, Agape Worship Center; Pastor Alonzo Neal, Antioch Baptish Church; Pastor George Brown, Calvary Outreach Ministry; Pastor Gary McCloud, Mt. Sinai Baptist Church and Pastor Anthony Burrell, Mt.  Calvary Baptist Church. Three other ministers are listed on Israel's press release without a church affiliation: Amos Benefield, Charles Branch and Robert Jackson.

McCain camp: We're gonna outspend Obama on TV until Nov. 4

McCain campaign director Rick Davis just finished a conference call with reporters to set the record straight on several things:

* they expect to spend at least $10 million more than the Obama camp on television in the final five days of the campaign;

* the McCain campaign has been competitive when it comes to spending because of the RNC cash, and Republicans are not at a disadvantage in the early voting/absentee ballot voting calculus

* and, oh yeah, they're going to win the electoral vote and popular vote in a very tight race.

Here's the reasoning:

Spending: "This is the most amount of money ever spent in a two-month period in Republican Party history,'' Davis said, when you include the $50 million the RNC spent on independent expenditure advertising. "You'll be surprised to learn that we have been very competitive in some of our spending areas and ahead of anything of any presidential campaign.''

TV time: Over the last 10 days, "we're on track" to outspend Obama on television and "that includes the 30 minute ad,'' Davis said. The independent expenditure money from the RNC will exceed $20 million for the last week of the campaign and that, coupled with McCain's spending, will bring the final week total close to $54 million this week -- which will exceed the Obama campaign and the help from the Democratical National Committee by over $10 million.

Early votes: "We're staying as competitive as any other winning presidential race in early voting and absentee ballots,'' Davis said. One caveat, however, Davis includes in his count the absentee ballot requests which have not yet beeen turned in.

Win: "We are witnessing I believe probably one of the greatest combacks cine John McCain won the primary,'' Davis said. "This has been the best 10 days of polling since the convention. We've shaken off the effects of the financial collapse that surpassed our numbers...


Warning sign: Obama peeling off Cubans who voted for Bush

Trailing behind President Bush's benchmark, Republican John McCain is winning 69 percent of voters in Miami-Dade who were born in Cuba, though that tally does not include GOP-dominated absentee ballots, according to an exit poll of more than 8,683 voters paid for by the Democratic firm of Bendixen & Associates.

Bush got 78 percent of the Cuban-American vote in 2004, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of exit polls.

Another warning sign for the McCain campaign: Democrat Barack Obama is receiving support from about 61 percent of Miami-Dade. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry only won the county by 53 percent.

McCain is winning the Hispanic vote overall, 53 to 47 percent, in Miami-Dade. Venezuelans and Nicaraguans favor McCain, while people born in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, the Honduras, the Dominican Republican and Puerto Rico lean toward Obama.

Obama is also winning the white, non-Hispanic vote, with 64 percent, though McCain leads among evangelicals. In striking polar opposites, Obama got 72 percent of the voters under 29 years old, while McCain got 74 percent of the voters over 75.

The survey was conducted Oct. 20-28 by University of Miami political science students at 18 of the county's early voting sites.


Al Gore go Boo! RNC go AHHHH!

Algore In the bash-Al-Gore Republican press release war, Republican Party of Florida: 1. Republican National Committee: 0.

The reason: RPOF has a shorter statement and a sense of humor because it provides us our very own Al Gore Halloween mask.

RPOF statement “Al Gore is a scary blast from Florida’s past, and Barack Obama is equally as frightening for Florida’s families and small business owners. The last thing Florida needs is higher taxes and a redistribution of wealth, but that is exactly what Obama advocates.”

RNC: “’Al the Liberal’ returns to Florida today to support Barack Obama’s liberal agenda to raise taxes during an economic crisis and choke off defense spending for America’s troops. Despite Gore’s visit to the Sunshine State, Obama’s proposals to ‘spread the wealth’ and increase taxes on families and small business owners will not resonate with voters who are worried about making ends meet. As Gore should know better than anyone, Academy Awards and Nobel Prizes are no substitute for having a good job.”

Graphic of how Florida's election map is changing

Click the below image to enlarge. A few interesting tidbits. Look at the I-4 corridor in No. 2. Getting bluer, starting with Pinellas, which is no longer majority Republican. Take I-95 north through blue volusia and you'll get to periwinkle Flagler, the only other county to flip Democrat (also, a top county for independent voter-growth). Also, note the state's biggest net gain for Republicans over Democrats in Bay  (7,663), 11 times smaller than the Democrats biggest net-gain county, Miami-Dade (86,418)


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Obama camp: We're winning vote war in FL, pushing in AZ, GA, ND

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe just wrapped up a conference call with reporters where he boasted that Democrats have cast 200,000 more early-vote and absentee ballots than Republicans in Florida. Meantime, the campaign is picking up its advertising in Georgia (owing to the early-vote numbers) and even Arizona, where he said Hispanic support is heavy.

"It's Senator Mccain's home state. We're congnizant of that," Plouffe said.

Plouffe said a quarter of so-called "sporadic" Democratic voters (aka: unreliable voters) have cast early Florida ballots, in proportion with other Dems. He said polling suggests more of the independent voters (who have cast 483k ballots) will side with Obama. African-American turnout is huge, and he projects Obama will narrowly win Hispanics who have turned to early vote in slightly higher numbers than in 2004.

McCain in Sunday in Mia, Monday in I-4

John McCain either smells a win or smells a loss. But he's not letting Florida go without a fight. He's in Miami Sunday and the I-4 Corridor Monday. Expect more more more appearances soon soon soon

Dem registration gains show McCain needs "voodoo magic"

As Florida becomes more coffee-colored, so is the Democratic Party. The Republican Party remains a whiter shade of pale.

Today, blacks and Hispanics together account for about 36 percent of the state's population and 37 percent of the Democratic voter rolls. Yet they make up just 13 percent of the Republican Party, which has remained 84 percent white since the last presidential election.

With a nearly 658,000-voter registration edge over Republicans, Democrats have flipped two battleground counties since the last presidential election, turned the crucial Interstate-4 corridor more to their favor and made South Florida an even deeper shade of liberal blue -- largely due to minority voter increases.

''I hope we have some voodoo magic in our sack,'' said former Republican Party of Florida Chairman Tom Slade.

``John McCain is going to need to pull three or four rabbits out of a hat -- not just one -- with huge numbers like this that we're facing. We need to look more like the state. And we're not.''

More here

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