Polls show contests for Dems in South Florida

Polls done for Telemundo 51 suggest increasingly competitive situations for the Democrats looking to oust Miami's three Republican members of Congress. The poll shows Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart with a narrow lead over Democratic challenger, Joe Garcia, 43 to 41 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

(Numbers for the marquee race featuring Lincoln Diaz-Balart v Raul Martinez are due up later tonight... stay tuned)

Mario Diaz-Balart leads Garcia among Cubans 59 percent to 30 percent, with 11 percent undecided; but trails him among non Cuban Hispanics, 49 percent to 36 percent and Anglos and blacks, 41 percent to 37 percent.

The same poll shows Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with a larger margin against Annette Taddeo, but her numbers, too, are below the 50 percent comfort threshold -- 48 percent to 35 percent, with 17 percent of those surveyed undecided. (The station was to release those numbers tomorrow, but Taddeo's campaign jumped out with a press release, titled "Taddeo Narrows Race - Ros-Lehtinen Now Dangerously Under 50%")

"No incumbent under 50 percent in the polls is safe," said Taddeo campaign manager Anastasia Apa, who notes the poll suggests Taddeo has narrowed the gap since a June poll showed her 27 points down. "Ros-Lehtinen’s dated ad and focus on 90 miles away is catching up to her. The people are ready for real leadership, and Ros-Lehtinen is dropping fast in the polls."

A poll done for Mario Diaz-Balart suggests a better outcome for the incumbent (though it still shows him polling under 50 percent)

According to the poll done by McLaughlin & Associates, Diaz-Balart has a 13 percent advantage over Garcia -- 49 to 36 percent. That poll suggests Diaz-Balart's lead has doubled since July. The poll of 300 likely voters was conducted Oct. 2-5 and has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.

Comments

[Hialeah411]

You must see this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKulv4srza4

[Old Man of the Mountain]

All of these polls have sample sizes that are so small that you might as well use a Ouija board. News organizations are too cheap to get decent polling but too hungry for "news" to admit that their numbers stink.

[DadePoliticalObserver]

I like Joe, but don't think he has what it takes to win. His name ID is too low and he's never been on the ballot as opposed to Mario who has been on the ballot since the early 90's. If people are that desperate for change Joe has a shot, but with his low name ID and poor record with CANF, I don't think this is a race Joe can win. We'll see, but I don't think he can beat Mario.

Annette has no chance. Her campaign manager is right, below 50% is never good for an incumbent. However, being 17% behind is never a good thing either. Annette has done her best, but there is no way she gets withing 10% of Ileana. Sorry Annette, but you have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this race.