Trailing behind President Bush's benchmark, Republican John McCain is winning 69 percent of voters in Miami-Dade who were born in Cuba, though that tally does not include GOP-dominated absentee ballots, according to an exit poll of more than 8,683 voters paid for by the Democratic firm of Bendixen & Associates.
Bush got 78 percent of the Cuban-American vote in 2004, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of exit polls.
Another warning sign for the McCain campaign: Democrat Barack Obama is receiving support from about 61 percent of Miami-Dade. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry only won the county by 53 percent.
McCain is winning the Hispanic vote overall, 53 to 47 percent, in Miami-Dade. Venezuelans and Nicaraguans favor McCain, while people born in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, the Honduras, the Dominican Republican and Puerto Rico lean toward Obama.
Obama is also winning the white, non-Hispanic vote, with 64 percent, though McCain leads among evangelicals. In striking polar opposites, Obama got 72 percent of the voters under 29 years old, while McCain got 74 percent of the voters over 75.
The survey was conducted Oct. 20-28 by University of Miami political science students at 18 of the county's early voting sites.