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Is Marco Rubio the new Katherine Harris?

That's the question raised by Katherine Harris' manager for her failed U.S. Senate campaign, Jamie Miller. He writes:    

I've lived through the Marco Rubio campaign when I managed Katherine Harris campaign for U.S. Senate. I can appreciate what they're going through. The ups of having so many grassroots leaders supporting the campaign, the downs of being on the short end of the fundraising race, quarter after quarter. The similarities are too great to ignore.The first and most obvious similarity is not only the lack of fundraising but the similar burn rates for both Rubio and Harris. Rubio has been out-raised by Gov. Crist by about four to one, but the governor holds more than a six to one cash-on-hand advantage. The reason is simple; Rubio is burning through 44 percent of his cash because he is raising more money through the mail which is one of the costliest ways to raise campaign dollars. It is true that many of these donors will be able to repeat their donations several times during the year, but this burn rate is too high for a successful statewide campaign. On the other hand, Crist's burn rate is less than 10 percent...

What Rubio fails to realize with his lack of fundraising and his burn rate is that he simply isn't going to have the voter contact dollars available to him to be successful in a top-of-the-ticket federal race. Most political watchers would agree that by the time the August primary rolls around, Rubio will have about $4-5 million to spend on the campaign (I think this is probably high) versus Gov. Crist's $12 million (which is a conservative guess).  Rubio then has to make a couple of choices, does he spend it all on negative TV to take Crist out, does he spend it all on positive TV to prepare himself for the general, or does he spend $3 million on positive and $2 million on negative. My guess is that, like most candidates, he splits it. That will give Crist the opportunity to spend $6 million in positive TV to offset the $2 million spent against him in negatives and another $6 million to spend on negative TV against Rubio. So, at the end of the election, Crist will have Rubio covered.  For every negative TV commercial you see of Crist, you will see three positive. For every positive commercial you see of Rubio, you will see two negative. Rubio is on a collision course with a failed political campaign...

Full column here.

Comments

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Katherine whose name shall not be mentioned

Why are you bringing up ghosts of elections past? Am I the only one who cringes at the thought of Katherine Harris?

It wasn't money that sank Katherine Harris. She had enough of her own money were she could have easily self-financed and outspent Nelson.

Katherine Harris lost because she began acting as crazy as she looked.

alice

Crist is a fact filled socialist liberal just like his new buddies Obama and Pelosi. Crist will self distruct with his own words as he spends millions trying to hide his stand with Obama and his pork filled stimulus plan and explain that to real republicans. Remember Crist has to get past real republicans before he can think about the general.

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