Poll shows Marleine Bastien, Frederica Wilson leading race to replace Kendrick Meek

There's not a whole lot (read: zero) of (public, independent) polling going on in the race to replace Kendrick Meek in the 17th Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat. So when numbers come out -- even if they are affiliated with a candidate -- ears perk up.

On Wednesday, Florida New Majority, a group that has endorsed activist Marleine Bastien in the nine-way Democratic primary, released a poll it commissioned that shows Bastien, with 22 percent, and state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 21 percent, leading the pack among likely voters.

Entrepreneur Rudy Moise and Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson came in third and fourth place, respectively, with 10 percent and 9 percent. The other five candidates all polled at 3 percent and 2 percent.

The most interesting part: 24 percent remain undecided. (The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percent.)

"It's not surprising that people are undecided going into this," said Stephen Clermont of Third Eye Strategies, which conducted the poll. "It's a low-turnout primary, it's the middle of the summer. It's not top-of-the-mind voter concern. They tune in at the last minute."

Clermont said the firm live called -- as opposed to robo-called -- 400 registered Democrats chosen randomly across the district, which spans from Overtown to Pembroke Pines, between Aug. 4 and 9. The people polled were chosen from a list of registered voters who listed telephone numbers and had voted in past primaries.

Comments

[Paula Xanthopoulou]

Have all the candidates in this race and others been asked whether they support the ERA? The FL House has never heard the refiled ERA bills (2003-20010). And many legislators running for re-election have never co-sponsored the ERA - you can read their names at Ratify ERA Florida 2010 on Facebook. Those candidates should be held accountable, women make up about 52% of Florida's population!

[Nicolas J S Davies]

Marleine Bastien just got the endorsement of the National Organization for Women. NOW said, "The National NOW PAC only endorses in a crowded primary when the woman stands head and shoulders above the others. Marleine Bastien is such a candidate."

[True Blue]

If I lived in the district, I would vote for Frederica. She has the nicest hats. Just imagine how they'll show up on C-Span.

[Mike]

No question, for the people of FL-17: Marleine. Her entire adult life has been spent trying to make the world a better place for everyone. She's a nurturer, yet tough enough to stand up against the banks, insurance companies, and HMO's that just want to bleed us all dry. Go, Marleine!

[James St Furcy]

Ms. Bastien is a remarkable woman. So far she is one of the few candidate who is doing the hard work necessary to win this election. My name is James St Furcy, I am a business person in New York with many clients who have relocated to the Miami area. She had the for-site to reach out to us in New York. This is the kind of forward thinking that will certainly make a difference in this election.
I am also making an appeal to all the well meaning Haitians candidates to seriously consider putting their political aspiration on hold in order to assure this history making moment by electing our first Black Haitian/American woman into the Halls of Congress. Ms.Bastien has a history of puling up the people around her and there is no reason to believe she will not the same once she is in Congress. In parting, let us live out the motto on our Haitian flag "in numbers there is strength" "Union fait la force"

[Fred]

I always find it suspect when 1) the poll comes from someone with a vested interest in the race and 2) when they don't release any of the crosstabs for the poll to show the demographics of the people polled.

[Local Lawyer]

Can't believe Scott Galvin is not even in the picture

[JFS]

Fred--
they didn't pick the sample based on demographics, or ask demographic questions, so asking them to release demographics makes no sense.

The article states it was a randomized sample of a) registered democrats who are b) past primary voters and c) listed telephone numbers. To me, this implies they are working off of public databases, not the more complete (but also privacy-invading) databases that index based on income etc. So unless they asked questions--frankly irrelevant questions--about income or other demographic issues, it looks like they are releasing full information. Imputing that they have more info and should release it makes no sense.