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Q poll: Sink, Crist lead November matchups

Alex Sink continues to gain ground in November's race for governor as the two Republicans wage an expensive battle to drive up each other's negatives, a new Quinnipiac University poll finds. If she were to face Bill McCollum (as yesterday's Q poll suggests), she would lead 31 percent to 29 percent. Against Rick Scott, she had a 33-29 lead. In both cases, indy Bud Chiles gets 12 percent and about a fifth of the electorate is undecided.

In the Senate race, Charlie Crist continues to hold about a seven point edge over Marco Rubio. According to the poll, his lead is relatively the same regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. Against Kendrick Meek, Crist leads 39-32-16, while facing Jeff Greene he is up 40-32-15.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 11-16 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points with a 1,096 sample size.

Full story here.


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You won't read it on the Herald, SPT or Sayfie... but here it is.

"Undecided" is still the leader in the Republican race for attorney general, but the three GOP candidates are each making inroads -- especially Jeff Kottkamp, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

With just five days until Election Day, the poll shows Lt. Gov. Kottkamp with 29 percent, Hillsborough County prosecutor Pam Bondi at 22 percent and Holly Benson, a former state administrator, garnering 19 percent.

Thirty percent of respondents remain undecided in the survey of 1,000 likely Republican voters conducted Aug. 12-15 by Voter Survey Service for the Sunshine State News Poll. A whopping 55 percent were undecided in last month's VSS poll.

Today's poll shows the biggest gains for Kottkamp since VSS's July 10 survey, which he led by a single percentage point over Bondi. Since then, the lieutenant governor has picked up 12 percentage points while Benson gained 7 points and Bondi added 6.

VSS president Jim Lee said Kottkamp's edge among senior citizens and "super voters" (who voted in both the 2006 and 2008 primaries) indicates that the lieutenant governor "has support with stalwart, base GOP voters who can be a reliable voting bloc in a low-turnout primary election.

"Although Kottkamp has picked up support with most demographic groups (in comparison to the July poll), his increase seems to be driven by a surge in support particularly among both young voters and voters in North Florida," Lee added.

In the July poll among 18- to 44-year-olds, the race was wide open, with 61 percent still undecided, and all three candidates tied within the poll’s margin of error. The current survey shows Kottkamp jumping out to 36 percent of that age demographic, far ahead of Benson (at 17 percent) and Bondi (at 14 percent).

Benson, a Pensacola resident, led the North Florida region with 21 percent in the July survey. In the current poll, Kottkamp has pulled into the lead with 33 percent, compared to Benson's 24 percent and Bondi's 13 percent.

North Florida was the only one of three regions that registered a dramatic shift. Bondi narrowly led both polls in Central Florida, while Kottkamp, from Southwest Florida, enjoys double-digit leads in the southern region. Bondi still leads the pack at her home base in the Tampa Bay area with 38 percent (Kottkamp 27 percent, Benson 13 percent).

"One additional factor that seems to be working in Kottkamp’s favor is that the two women in the race could be splitting the female vote, which could be hurting Bondi since she was the candidate who in the last poll we concluded as the one with the best chance for growth," Lee said.

In the current survey, Kottkamp holds an 11-point lead among males -- 32 percent vs. 21 percent for Bondi and 19 percent for Benson -- whereas among females Kottkamp leads by 4 points (Kottkamp, 26 percent; Bondi, 22 percent; and Benson, 19 percent).

Strategically and politically, Kottkamp may have benefited by distancing himself from his controversial boss, Republican-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist when he endorsed Marco Rubio in the upcoming U.S. Senate race.

Kottkamp also has picked up support from social conservatives and right-to-life groups -- both big players in GOP primaries.

"Kottkamp has better solidified his base and he's getting separation," Lee noted. "He has the most potential to tap into older voters. He seems to have a better comfort level with seniors as the safer choice."

Describing Kottkamp's team as "cautiously optimistic," campaign spokesman David Bishop said, "It's now clear there is movement in the race and that he has the momentum. All polls point in that direction."

Bondi claimed her own momentum, saying: "The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, but all the momentum is on our side, and we are confident that our grass-roots organization and endorsements like the one from the Florida Chamber of Commerce will carry us through to victory next Tuesday."

Benson's spokeswoman, Sarah Bascom, said, “This race is close and going to come down to the wire. We are confident that our grass-roots support and get-out-the-vote programs will carry Holly to victory on Tuesday.”

VSS, an independent polling company which is a division of Susquehanna (Pa.) Polling & Research, questioned 1,000 likely Republican voters across Florida. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Oh yeah, Bondi's got the momentum alright. Hahahahahahaha

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