The polls will open in less than a half hour, and already Democrat Alex Sink has to play catchup. Republican Rick Scott and his party outdid themselves in getting out the early and absentee vote, getting nearly 1.1 million Republican ballots cast before today. About 815,000 Democrats cast early and absentee ballots.
Total GOP lead: 271,000 votes. But not all those went to Scott (just like not all Dem ballots went to Sink). And then there's the matter of the nearly 320,000 indpendents/no-party-affiliation voters.
So what's the lead? We averaged the last three poll results and applied the percentages to each candidate. So Sink got about 82, 12 and 48 percent of the Democrat, Republican and independent votes, respectively. Scott got 10, 80 and 38 percent of the Democrat, Republican and independent votes, respectively. Apply those to the ballots cast and Scott is up 112,000, or 5 percentage points.
Note: the formula about doesn't apportion all the ballots cast to Sink and Scott because, together, the polls show they don't get 100 percent of the vote due to undecided voters and those who opt for a third-party candidate. That leaves about 200,000 more ballots cast that could be up for grabs.
Also, early/absentee votes will likely account for about 42 percent of the total votes cast this election. So there's lots of voting to be done today. Still, the pressure's on Sink to scrap on and turn out her vote. Scott has to hang on as he turns out his.
More here
So as more republicans vote, Alex Sink does better? Not that I am complaining, but early voting is still too much in it's infancy to be making these predictions.
Posted by: OPM | November 02, 2010 at 07:38 AM
This is going to be a bad day for Democrats, and I'm one.
Posted by: WWMD? | November 02, 2010 at 07:47 AM
WWMD?
Just remember: you have Obama to 'thank' for that!
Posted by: twitter.com/DrThomasHo | November 02, 2010 at 08:00 AM
This is a dumb story - pure speculation. It's like saying: "And if you carry the 3, divide it by 10 and multiply it by 28..."
Save the funny math for your office pool, Caputo and remember why you're a reporter in the first place: serve the public interest, not to blog crazy stuff.
Posted by: Do Better | November 02, 2010 at 08:21 AM
PoliFact Rates This Claim IS TRUE: "Cheater Alex Sink Cheated Florida's Seniors into Risky
Investments and her company was Fined by the SEC"
"While Sink was State President of NationsBank, Bank Tellers in Florida Were Being Paid a 5 Percent Commission For Directing Bank Customers To Bank-Related Stock Brokers. The Stock Brokers Were Then Selling Riskier Investments Under The Guise That They Were Protected Either By The Bank Or The Federal Government."
"We Rate This Claim IS TRUE."
http://politifact.com/florida/statements/2010/oct/26/rick-scott/alex-sink-faces-her-own-fraud-charges-cnnst-peters/
Lets Get To Work!
Posted by: TaxPayer 2010 | November 02, 2010 at 09:28 AM
rick scott who stole millions in med. care fraud spending millions in adv. of the same taxpayers money that he stole.. paid as the ceo. of the company 1 bill . in fines..still not in jail. and the republicians still want him as gov. as crooks go i guess it takes one to know one..
Posted by: LOUIS BONDI | November 02, 2010 at 09:33 AM
The main point is that a criminal is going to buy this election. This criminal is dumb, incompetent, ignorant and yet is in bed with the top Republicans in the state who kiss his feet. Terrible people are taking away our freedom. We do not have a free election today. It is a shame. It is unlawful. It is a laughing stock for the world to see.
Posted by: Sheila | November 02, 2010 at 09:54 AM
More republicans voted eartly becaurce the democrates were too busy working.
Posted by: BigDo | November 02, 2010 at 10:38 AM
This should not be reported as news. The word 'estimate' should be used somewhere in this headline. Your wild guess is based on past polling data that may or may not be consistent with this go-round.
Posted by: FIUFan | November 02, 2010 at 11:02 AM
As a registered republican who voted early, I don't want either tea or Obamanade, so give me the senator without affiliation. As far as the Governor- Don't you think Mr. Scott has figured out a way to parlay 78 million $$$ of his own money (sort of) into a profit if he wins? Guess it is time for me to Sink.
So much for the 100K upfront lead - it has at least two less than that from my household.
Posted by: NotRocketScience | November 02, 2010 at 12:38 PM
The supposition of this analysis is that early GOP voters VOTE Republican..
Oh contraire!
I know alot of people who finished their mail in ballots and voted Dem Alex Sink.
So dont think all GOP Republicans VOTE republican!
Posted by: theloneconsumer | November 02, 2010 at 04:22 PM
I'm registered as Republican because in our area that is necessary for primaries. I cannot believe anyone would vote for Scott.
Posted by: peanut | November 02, 2010 at 07:28 PM