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The politics of an early primary.

Republicans are split over Florida’s early primary in Jan ‘12. Keep it and the state gets a boost but RPOF delegates get punished at the Tampa convention. Lose it and… well, who knows if Republicans opt for an Oct. 11 straw poll. Today's story is here.

Another reason to keep the early primary: It’s a great vehicle for conservative-leaning constitutional amendments, which must pass with 60 percent of the vote. If there’s an early primary, chances are Democrats will stay home because President Obama’s the presumptive nominee. Independents, barred from ballot-casting primary races, are a likely no show as well.

There’s a catch for the Senate and House, though. An amendment on the primary (as opposed to general election) ballot must pass each legislative chamber by a 3/4ths vote. Senate President Mike Haridopolos said he doesn’t see any measures passing for the Jan ‘12 ballot, but opponents of ObamaCare and the new redistricting amendments are still hopeful. The ballot, though, could be primed for a well-funded tax-cut measure.....

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