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Rick Scott pollster survey: 50 percent want to recall Miami-Dade's mayor

A survey conducted by Gov. Rick Scott’s political pollster shows that exactly half of the electorate wants to recall Miami-Dade's Mayor Carlos Alvarez. Only 32 percent would vote to keep him in office. The rest are undecided.

Also, far more voters have an unfavorable opinion (46 percent) than a favorable opinion (24 percent) of Alvarez – a situation known as being “upside-down.”

Sounds like bad news? Actually not, said Republican consultant Roger Stone, a Miami-Dade resident who’s not affiliated with Alvarez or his opponents.

“It’s good news. He’s right at 50 percent. His recall is not a foregone conclusion,” Stone said. “Sure, his unfavorables are at 46, and it’s not great. But it’s under 50. He’s not nearly as polarizing as people would have you believe.”

Still, Alvarez is deeply unpopular. No economic or demographic group favors him more than disfavors him. And he’s unpopular in every Dade congressional district, the poll shows. If he’s unseated in the March 15 vote, the favorite to replace him would be Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina, who would garner 13 percent of the vote in a crowded field, the poll shows.

But Alvarez has to lose first. And his opponents might be all punched out. Unless something new breaks, Alvarez could have weathered the worst already. The poll shows that a plurality of voters (40 percent) is more aware about the recall effort than about his stance on taxes (18 percent). Relatively few seem to feel passionately about the big raises he gave out at county hall or the opulent baseball stadium he pushed – cornerstones of the campaign against him.

Alvarez's campaign is just getting cranked up. There’s a good chance of robo-calls, push polls and mailers savaging Norm Braman, who led the recall effort. After all, a good way to win a campaign is to go on offense against your opponent – in Braman’s case, a millionaire car dealer.

The poll was conducted by Tony Fabrizio for an unnamed group that wants to remain anonymous but is interested in the recall election (i.e., potential donors who want their contributions to be on the right side of the vote). Fabrizio, who did not return calls for comment, did not conduct the poll for Scott, for whom he still consults. Fabrizio earned a sterling reputation in Florida’s political circles for his polling-and-message management of Scott’s unexpectedly successful gubernatorial campaign.

Bottom line: These are probably the best polling numbers for the race right now.

On the polling numbers for his potential successors: Robaina (13), Carlos Gimenez (9),** Marcelo Llorente (2), Juan Carlos Bermudez (2), Lazaro Gonzalez (1), Darrin Ellis (1), Joshua Larose (1) and Santiago Portal (1).

On the issues: Being as specific as possible what are the one or two things you recall hearing about the mayor of Miami-Dade County?
Being recalled: 40
Raising taxes: 18
Inappropriately paying staff: 11
Dishonest/unfair/untrustworthy/corrupt: 10
Disagree with his views: 7
Issues with the police department: 6
Doing a bad job: 4
Approving a new baseball stadium: 4
Favorable/like his views: 3
Budget issues: 2
Not for the people: 1

 

** Note: The previous blog inaccurately  said Alex Diaz de la Portilla worked for Carlos Alvarez. Instead, he is campaign consultant for Gimenez.

Comments

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Abe

Who is Roger Stone kidding? Of course, this poll is horrible news for Alvarez. Only 32 percent would vote to keep him in office.

Also, a special election will have a relatively small turnout, so motivated voters will have a disproportionate impact. Not many people are going to go out of their way to vote in a one question election just to retain him. The recall crowd is motivated and will be there in force.

Finally, early voting starts on Monday, so time has effectively run out for our unpopular mayor to change his tax and spend image that took 6 years to create.

P.S. There are many good reasons to recall Alvarez (he increased taxes, he increased employee salaries, he gave billions to the Marlins for a free stadium), but I am voting to recall him so we can get rid of his puppeteer, County Manager George Burgess. Burgess and his handpicked cronies have run the county into the ground.

Jeff

After misleading his past voters, what reason do we have to retain him as our mayor?

Carlos

The people have already voted to eliminate the County Manager's position effective in 2012 if i am not mistaken; and as for county employees getting an increase in their salaries I for one can tell you, my salary has not been raised but cut, several times.
More importantly, how are we going to pay for this election? and the others to come if the Mayor is ousted?

L.S.

Mayor Alvarez was publicly warned by Braman during last year's budget process that he would face a recall election if he continued to push for a budget that raised property taxes to increase employee salaries. It was in the headlines of the Herald. We all read it. Mayor Alvarez failed to heed the warning, so the cost of the election is squarely on his back.

As for the county manager's position, we cannot get rid of George Burgess and his rampant cronyism fast enough. Burgess and the hundreds of cronies that he has placed in the government without competition at $100k and $200k salaries need to go NOW.

john

We need term limits for all County Commissioners in Miami-Dade County. Cost of living has sky rocket and continues to rise, how are we going to have a job and how are we going to pay our high taxes in this County, while others are not doing their job in the County level and have lost touch with this comunity. How are we the citizens of this County are going to survive in the big dogs continue to still from this Comunity the tax payer, the people have spoken, they need to get the hell out and bring new blood and listen to the people of this comunity.

JJ

Have to agree with Abe's comment. This about angry voters, so those who are indifferent will not bother. Those 24% who support him will vote.

Since he has an unfavorable rating of 46%, those people, like me, will take the time to get this bum out of office.

DoralGirl

Juan Carlos Bermudez 2%????? Hahahahaha, after all the corruption in our city of Doral and all the cronyism in his city hall. Puuleeeeeezzz! He'll be lucky if he gets to vote for himself. If the state attorney's office doesn't do a thorough criminal investigation of this crook and his entire staff THEY should be put in jail for incompetence. What a shame that we have so many bad politicians stealing and dealing with our tax dollars instead of helping us.

Miami Nice

That's a good point about how Alvarez was warned about a recall election BEFORE the 2010-11 budget was finalized. Since Alvarez was told there would definitely be a recall election if he raised taxes, why didn't he budget for one? Did he think Braman was just bluffing? Or is Alvarez just bad at money management and budgeting? My guess is the latter, but regardless it is Alvarez's fault if there is a shortage of money for a special election.

Tom Highway

Carlos Alvarez is an honorable, honest man. His problem that he is too honest to be a good politician.

It is a disgrace to treat this man in this manner.

It is also stupid. Alvarez is a term-limited lame duck. It makes no sense to vote him out of office this late in the game.

rasputin

Clean house now..
if so concern about money for special election leave now later you will loose your pension...

rasputin

P.S. Please take seijas with you we need better lidership . Its not that you will not be intimidated by the people it's that you are placed there by the people to do as they request somehow you lost track of your task and wondered into la la land. Good luck in your next job...

Hector

It makes perfect sense to get rid of Alvarez now. We cannot afford to have him in place for the next budget cycle. Alvarez already raped us last fall. We need him out of office now before he does it to us again. If we don't oust Alvarez now, we will be stuck with him for two more budgets. If you think last fall was terrible, if Alvarez survives this recall he will be going all out for his only allies - the government employee unions. Now is the time to get rid of him. VOTE YES ON RECALL!

Nancy R.

I hope the voters will rid themselves of this corrupt and inept political leader. This will send a strong message to these laidback and live on the backs of the over-worked and over-taxed families of Miami-Dade that their job to serve the public good should be seen as sacred.

Perhaps now our Commissioner Jose "Pepe" Diaz will drive himself to his many useless public appearances instead of using a Miami-Dade Police Sergeant making more then $160,000 per year as his personal chauffeur.

Perhaps now the corrupt and special interest serving County Commission will consider the private sector's economic pains when voting to give an across the board raise to the nearly 33,000 over paid and under worked Miami-Dade County government union members.

Perhaps now the commission will reduce the bloated government payrolls which have added more then 1,100 new government employees since January of 2010 while the public sector loses jobs and entire families are kicked into the streets after the banks take their home.

Perhaps now others our government leaders will think twice before building the billionaire Miami Marlins a billion dollar stadium on the backs of the over taxed families of our county.

Chrisma

I wonder how we will feel a year from now when Norman Braman calls all the shots and polititians afraid of a recall are his puppets,and what is being proposed goes against our best interests; don't be fooled. After all Braman said it clearly all those running will have to sign a pledge to do what he thinks is right and if not watch out for his wrath. With one big difference he is not an elected official, he does not have to be transparent and he cannot be recalled. Look what is happening with Rick Scott, he is going after education, elderly services, control of illegal prescription drugs, Medicaid. etc. but we wanted someone that would lower taxes and we got him.

Ewing

I will vote "NO" on the recall in protest. Wasting $ 5 million in taxpayer dollars on this election is just plain stupid, for starters! And Mayor Alvarez is one of the most decent, forward thinking politicians that Dade has seen in years.

If he is recalled, just hope that more $$$$$$$ is not spent on another election to elect a short term Mayor. That would be even more stupidity. Appoint Merritt Steirheim to fill the vacancy..........

Joan

Vote him and vote out every person in Miami that is a crook.

taxiof2

Amen Joan! I am sick of this AH! He makes too much money and hasn't delivered anything to anyone but government employees. Ewing, you have got to be kidding me? "decent, forward thinking politican?" OMG, I am going to puke! He has DONE NOTHING! He raised our taxes, he increased salaries and supported the new stadium that does nothing for us. HE did this while people are losing their jobs, losing their homes, losing their businesses. That was his answer? How about getting up there and telling the people of Dade County that he understands their pain. That these are hard times and we are all going to have to take a hit to recover from this. How about starting with a 20% paycut across the board! I am making 70% less than I did 3 yrs ago. I am barely making my mortgage and he was me to PAY MORE TAXES so he can have a nice car, pay his employees more money and feel like a big shot!

lex

Sign the petition to get rick scott out of office at “www.thepetitionsite.com/1/get-rick-scott-out-of-office/”

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