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PPPoll: Bill Nelson's just "mediocre" enough to win

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats and liberal groups

Different month, same story when it comes to Bill Nelson's poll numbers: his approval rating is mediocre but he has a double digit lead over all of his Republican opponents.

38% of voters approve of the job Nelson's doing to 31% who disapprove. The most striking number continues to be those with no opinion- even after more than a decade in the Senate 31% don't feel strongly enough to rate Nelson one way or another.

Nelson continues to have solid numbers with independents (43/29) and 27% of the Republicans who have an opinion about him approve of the job he's doing, well ahead of the curve for your average Democratic Senator. What holds down his overall numbers is a lack of enthusiasm for him from his own party base- just 53% of Democrats give him good marks to 19% who disapprove. You're usually going to see a Senator more in the 70-80% approval range within his own party.

Democrats may not be in love with Nelson- but they're still pretty strongly committed to voting for him- and that combined with a persistent lead with independents gives him a double digit advantage over his potential Republican foes. He's up 11 points on George LeMieux at 46-35 and has identical 12 point leads over Mike Haridopolos and Adam Hasner at 47-35. Nelson pulls in 13-14% of the GOP vote in each of those match ups while losing only 7-8% of the Democrats. He also leads independents by a small margin over LeMieux (3 points) and a wider one over Haridopolos and Hasner (15 points.)

 Full analysis here