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Gallup poll: Mitt Romney waning. Rick Perry surging.

A new survey from Gallup finds Texas Gov. Rick Perry is barely behind longtime fellow Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, with the former pulling in 15 percent support and the former Mass. Gov. gaining 17 percent -- making Romney a tenuous frontrunner. 

Yesterday, we touched on Perry's nascent, shadow operation in Florida, where he nominally leads the pack, according to an American Research Group poll. Like the Florida poll, the national Gallup survey shows Sarah Palin pulling in a good chunk of the vote, 12 percent. Chances that she'll run or stay in the race seem slim at the moment, and that's probably good news for Michele Bachmann, who garners 11 percent nationally.

Still, Gallup found that Perry trails Romney 18-23, without Palin in the race. And Palin would trail Romney 15-23 without Perry.

Says Gallup: "Perry appears to be the strongest potential challenger to Romney at the moment, given the results of these recomputed preferences, trailing Romney by five percentage points, compared with eight- and nine- point deficits for Palin and Giuliani, respectively. Perry is also the only one of the three late-deciders whose support numerically exceeds Bachmann's in these simulations.

"The fact that Romney is the leader in all three scenarios indicates that at this point he is the nominal front-runner regardless of who else enters the race."

Taken all together, recent survey results indicate there are two general types of putative Republican candidates: Romney and everyone else. The more crowded the field, the better for Romney, who has been essentially running for four years and hasn't cracked more than a third of the vote in most major polls.

What makes a Perry candidacy so deadly to Romney is that, as a Texas Republican told us, he appeals to both establishment and tea-party Republicans. Oh yeah, and jobs grew in Texas during the recession, while Romney's job record isn't as brag-worthy. 

Perry also tells a good rags-to-sort-of-riches story in Texas Monthly.

Some Florida Republicans allied with other candidates say Perry is probably a flash in the pan, that it's too late because he hasn't lined up the money people and fundraised early enough. That's probably wishful thinking from the hater posse. With Perry's poll numbers, he has an estimated $4 million of buzz without having raised or spent a cent. And chances are, he can raise a good $6 million in a full quarter.

But that's speculation. Then again, so are all the polls at this point.

 

 

 

Comments

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Andres

Great!!Let's elect another Texan!!!!!!
We better hurry though, we're running out of countries to invade on false pretenses!!!

CF

28 Reasons To Not Vote For Rick Perry

http://shorttext.com/317OW5

B RYE

He has never taken a government junket. He does not
participate in the lucrative Congressional Pension Program. He
returns a portion of his annual Congressional Office Budget every
year. He has never voted to raise taxes. He
has never voted for an unbalanced budget. He has never
voted to restrict gun ownership. He has never voted to
raise Congressional Pay. He never voted to increase
Executive Branch Power. He will Reinstate The
Constitution and Save The Republic He will END the
unconstitutional FED. He will phase out the
unconstitutional IRS beginning immediately He will
secure the borders He will limit Big Government in your
private affairs He will stop Illegal immigration and no
amnesty He voted against regulating the Internet He
voted against the Iraq War and warned us against going forward with
an undeclared war.“Let it not be said that no one cared, that
no one objected once it's realized that our liberty and wealth are in
Jeopardy” July 10th, 2003He voted against the
un-patriotic so called Patriot Act. He supports a
non-interventionist foreign policy yet a strong military He
will end the inflation tax He is a true Constitutional
Conservative He would have soundly beat Obama in 2008
because Independents trust him and like him.We could have had
a V8 instead of McCain't in 08 Ron Paul for President
2012 Because no one else can be trusted to say what he
means and do what he says like Ron Paul does.Ron Paul is the
man of the hour. They used to laugh him for being way ahead of the
others in his thinking and his warnings. Now, they are not laughing
because what he predicted is coming to pass. Now, he is being called
a prophet for having warned us and still calmly suffered through the
barbs. "First they, ignore you, then they fight you, then you
win." Gandhi
RON PAUL 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!

Duncan Stuart

Polls are pretty volatile right now thanks to a number of factors including the uncertainty of certain individuals even entering the race - and due in part to the utter distraction of the current budget stand-off between the Dems and Republicans (an issue on which Perry, Bachman, Romney et al are conspicuously silent over.) The current climate for the republicans has - to me - got a strong similarity to that of the Dems in the lead-up to the 1992 elections. During the run up to the primaries the Dems were all over the map and nobody outside of Arkansas had even heard of Clinton. Meanwhile Bush Sr was experiencing an economic meltdown of sorts, and on the brink of raising unpopular new taxes despite his "read my lips" pledge. Today we have almost the same picture except the party labels have been switched. In this context it is premature to put your money on Perry, Romney, Bachman, Palin or anyone. The game has only just begun.

Mari

There is now way Romney will win the nomination with an Evangelical running for the same thing.
Perry will eliminate him since Bachman hasn't.

Mari

I meant to say there is NO way Romney will win over Perry an Evangelical. Not in America.

andrew silvestri

texas gov tough smart man rommey to liberal for me consertive guy peery the answer

david

you should look at the polls and see whos leading andrew

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