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Raul Martinez leads Hialeah mayor's race? Poll says so but doesn't give numbers

A vague, one-page summary of a poll conducted for the Hialeah firefighters union claims that Raul Martinez leads Carlos Hernandez and Rudy Garcia in the race to become the city's next mayor.

But the summary sent to union members last week does not list the actual results: It just says Martinez, a former Hialeah mayor, "holds a double digit lead" over interim Mayor Hernandez,  and Hernandez "leads" former state Sen. Garcia "by double digits."

It's unclear if the poll included state Rep. Eddy Gonzalez, who dropped out of the mayoral race last week.

The firefighters have been trying to wield more political power in the city after campaigning heavily against former Mayor Julio Robaina in the recent Miami-Dade County mayoral race.

The poll summary was sent to members after Balsera Communications conducted a telephone poll of 300 likely voters from Aug. 13 to 16. The poll's margin of error: a relatively high plus-or-minus 5.6 percent.

Eighty-three percent of the poll interviews were conducted in Spanish. Fifty-nine percent of the respondents were Republican, 27 percent were Democrat and 13 percent had no party affiliation. Eighty-six percent were 56 or older.

The only numbers listed in the memo are favorability ratings -- "just over" 50 percent for Martinez and Robaina -- and job approval ratings: 42 percent for Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, 30 percent for Gov. Rick Scott and 35 percent for President Barack Obama.

See the full memo after the jump.

From :  Balsera Communications

Date:    August 18, 2011

Client:  Hialeah Firefighters

RE:       Survey Findings


Polling Memo




A survey of the views and opinions of Hialeah voters was conducted between August 13 -16, 2011 by Balsera Communications.  Using random digit dialing, 300 likely voters were surveyed.  83% of the surveys were conducted in Spanish and 17% were conducted in English. 59% of the respondents are republican, 27% Democrat and 13% NPA.  195 respondents were female and 105 were male. 86% were 56+ in age, 10% were between 40-55 while 4% were between 18-39 years old. The MOE is 5.6%.


Summary Of Results


There were several key findings in the 20 minute survey concerning issues most important to city voters, preferences in the upcoming mayoral and council elections and general opinions of the city, elected officials and city firefighters.


State of City Government:


  • 65% of Voters feel the Financial condition of the city is either average or poor.
  • 26% of Voters feel Waste & Corruption In Government was the top issue followed closely by    Property Taxes and Crime & Safety.  Quality City Services was rated as the fourth most      important issue to voters.
  • 86% of voters feel the performance of the Hialeah Firefighters is either excellent/good.


November Elections:


  • Former Mayor Raul Martinez holds a double digit lead over current Mayor Carlos Hernandez.              Carlos Hernandez leads, third place finisher, former Senator Rudy Garcia by double digits.
  • None of the current council members garners 40% against the field of challengers.
  • All Council members appear to be vulnerable, particularly Jose Caragol, appointee Paul             Hernandez and Isis Garcia-Martinez.  The three incumbents are all tied or within the MOE with       their respective challengers ( Julio Martinez, Frank Lago & Cindy Miel ).
  • In the only open seat Alex Morales has a commanding lead on the field.


General Opinions:


  • Raul Martinez & Julio Robaina lead with the highest favorable rating (both just over 50%).
  • Carlos Gimenez job approval is 42 % ( Approve ) - 32 % ( Disapprove )
  • Rick Scott job approval is 30 % ( Approve ) - 51 % ( Disapprove )
  • Barack Obama job approval is 35 % ( Approve ) - 54 % ( Disapprove )