Pre-straw poll analysis: Perry imperiled. Romney rising. Cain catching fire

If there was any question about the effect of Thursday debate on today’s straw poll, talk to a few Republican Party of Florida delegates who seem ready to pick Mitt Romney over frontrunner Rick Perry, whose bad performance is weighing on him like a political millstone. Today's story here.

This is just informal chatter, and we won’t know what happens until the 3,500 or so ballots are cast. But this much is clear: There’s no clear frontrunner. And a Perry loss would be "disastrous" in the words of Republican polling and message-meister Tony Fabrizio (that story is here).

Some even think that Herman Cain could come in second, and that third place wouldn’t surprise anyone. Last night, at an event at the Rosen Center hotel, Cain's staff had to get a new, bigger event room to make way for all his admirers.

Room capacity: 700. There was a line out the door. Any Republican nominee who doesn't strongly consider Cain as a vice-presidential pick (business background, great oratory, African American, tea party favorite) needs to get his head examined.

Leon County delegate Francisco Gonzalez, now a Cain backer, said the longer Perry has remained in the race, the more he has looked elsewhere. Perry’s answers on immigration and his executive order attempting to inoculate girls from the human papillomavirus just weren’t satisfying. Perry’s debate style was even worse.

“All these things add up. And then he fumbled on stage,” Gonzalez said. “Why can’t we get someone who can speak, who’s articulate?” he asked, noting that there hasn’t been a great GOP presidential communicator since, well, the great communicator Ronald Reagan.

Rep. Scott Plakon, one of the state House's most conservative Republicans, became the first legislator to endorse Cain last night.

Some say Perry is “toast.” But toast – breakfast toast, that is – as well as bacon and eggs could save him after he hosted a throng of delegates at a morning breakfast where he worked the room and impressed people. The campaign said it served almost 1,200 (a third of the straw poll electorate).

“It showed he could come back strong after the debate, that he was still very much in this,” said Pinellas County delegate Rachelle Warmouth.

The stakes are huge. The past three straw poll winners have become the party's nominee. The winner will get loads of free media coverage and a likely boost in the national polls. Still, expect the Perry's-in-trouble storyline to echo about after the vote, even if he wins.

Romney's campaign has played the straw poll shrewdly, claiming he wouldn't "participate." That is, that he wouldn't address the delegates immediately before the vote. But he debated Thursday and was at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday here and his supporters are actively trying to get people to either vote for him -- or even for Cain to add a little extra buzz to that insurgent campaign and take more shine off Perry.

Warmouth said that, if Perry lost, it wouldn’t be the end of his campaign. But when or lose, the debate performance and the effect it’s having on party loyalists are a call to step up his game.

“He’ll have to have a strong recovery,” she said. “He needs to focus on his message.”

Warmouth’s friend, Eileen Blackmer, agreed: “He needs to work on the three C’s: Be clear, be concise, be complete.”

Blackmer also echoed the sentiment that Perry’s breakfast for the delegates was a good way to repair the damage. But she said the debates are more important than the food. And she faulted Perry, Romney and Michele Bachmann for not answering questions. By contrast, they say, Cain and Newt Gingrich are giving more specifics and solutions.

“I came into the debate knowing who I was going to vote for,” Blackmer said, referring to Perry. “Now I’m in a tailspin.”

Neither likes Romney much, though they say he has improved as a candidate in recent weeks.

Lee County delegate Dane Eagle said he’s for Romney. He likes the candidate’s message and polish on stage. And he fears that President Obama would walk all over Perry in debates.

“That’s what Obama does,” Eagle said. “He debates.”

Comments

[Brittanicus]

Whoever wins the race to the Oval office could alter the course of America, by assisting in the removal of 20 plus illegal nationals from our jobs, from our crippled economy; the criminals and the economic illegal aliens leeching our tax dollars. In the Presidential race now is Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, Businessman Herman Cain, Rep. Michel Bachmann of Minnesota. The majority has illustrated a hard-line attitude on illegal immigration; others have shown a soft side that doesn't go down well with the average taxpayer. In a survey by (CIS) Center for Immigration Studies, 40 percent of Texas jobs are jobs taken by illegal aliens in the Lone Star State.

Other than going into the ramifications of the illegal alien occupation, we can use three very important issues that can actually short-circuit this illegal population explosion? Most Americans are well versed in the astronomical costs of welfare assistance, the fraud and corruption spread between the federal government and the 50 states. Throughout 30 years of democrats and Republicans in Congress, both parties have shown an abject failure on building that fence on our Southern border. My personal opinion has determined not only was there was no intent to build the two parallel fences, but instead intentionally made entry into our sovereign lands—ONLY—a civil offense, instead of a CLASS ONE "FELONY."The 2012 election will be a crucial time, but we urgently must safeguard our votes from being tampered with; as did organization such as ACORN. ACORN is not defunct, but assumed other names. Fraudulent voting by illegal aliens using simple Absentee Ballots was widespread in the midterm elections. Forged registration was rampant in many of the 50 states, which in close races could change political positions negatively.

1. Contact every senator and state representative and demand as a voter, they co-sponsor Lamar Smith's passage of the E-Verify “the Legal Workforce Act." H.R. 2885. At the very least, it is a step in the right bearing. Even if E-Verify have some faults and some illegal aliens are able to attain employment, it won't last very long. Those hired illegally will be caught eventually when the irregularities are corrected. It's better to have something as a deterrent, than to have nothing at all. Already the open border organizations, churches, unions (not necessarily union members) corporations, the American Communist Lawyers Union (ACLU) and others with the own schedule or greed, are trying to kill this mandated E-Verify. Discover more about their ill-omened plans at Judicial Watch, American Patrol and NumbersUSA.

2. Use your eyes in your workplace or in any workplaces around you, such as a construction sites factory floors and then contact ICE. Somewhere between 7.5 and 8 million illegal aliens are stealing jobs from citizens and legalized residents and not just in low paying jobs. If you suspect somebody who is competing with you using an illegal workforce, contact the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)'s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) division at 1-866-DHS-2ICE (866-347-2423).According to one of NumbersUSA members who spoke with an ICE agent, "the mere 'suspicion' that a company's employees are illegal aliens is--ALL--that is necessary to make the call to commence an investigation." He added, "Law enforcement organizations cannot, and do not, expect the public to be experts in determining whether someone is committing a crime, so they provide a safe harbor approach to informing." Any patriotic American, who calls ICE, need not give any personal information. Whistle Blowers are very welcome who see irregularities at their workplace. You have the ammunition, so use it. Remember if you SEE SOMETHING!--SAY SOMETHING TO ICE!

[donnafrflorida]

Yesterday I went to Cpac. I met ron Paul and Cain there. As I left I had an Epiphany. NO to Romney. No to perry. Its Cain. He is NOT political. He is ABSOLUTELY capable of debating obama. He is a breath of fresh air. He is honest. If we can get him on the ticket. No more Romney's no more Perry's. Please start sending him money. I don't have much but I plan on sending him what I can. He needs more airtime!!! The more I hear him the more I love him. There is an Old YouTube out there where he wins a debate with bill Clinton at a town hall meeting. He had Clinton all flustered when he rattled off all types statistics.

[donnafrflorida]

Yesterday I went to Cpac. I met ron Paul and Cain there. As I left I had an Epiphany. NO to Romney. No to perry. Its Cain. He is NOT political. He is ABSOLUTELY capable of debating obama. He is a breath of fresh air. He is honest. If we can get him on the ticket. No more Romney's no more Perry's. Please start sending him money. I don't have much but I plan on sending him what I can. He needs more airtime!!! The more I hear him the more I love him. There is an Old YouTube out there where he wins a debate with bill Clinton at a town hall meeting. He had Clinton all flustered when he rattled off all types statistics.

[Kelly]

The Adult in the Room

As I watch all things part of and leading to the 2012 presidential election cycle, I have pondered these age-long questions, "Where did we come from? Why are we here?" And, "where do we go after...2012?" (At least as it relates to politics and this nation)

I grew up in a Republican household, but even in high school I debated the merits of abolishing the two-party system. My ideological view from that age when I knew everything was that Americans could learn to vote based on candidate's principles and values and not based merely upon a party affiliation.

During the last presidential election, we were all faced with a quandary. Here is my summation (for what it's worth). From the left, voters were weighing the option of having another Clinton White House or, choose to elect a vibrant Chicago senator who was a great orator and spoke of change. From the right, there was the candidate many Republicans considered to be a RINO anyway, John McCain. Many also felt excitement with the possibility of electing our first African-American president. This possibility alone promoted the feeling that America had grown up. Our nation was rising above racial inequality, at least to a measure. I, for one, and even some staunch conservative friends of mine were quite open to the prospect and possibilities.

A fair amount of this openness to a Democrat-led administration was due to what was being experienced by the average Republican. It was impossible not to feel the downward turn in American morale and our standing in the world community. Our presidents Texas swagger and winking-eye arrogance was not cutting it here or abroad. Undoubtedly, no one is ever prepared to leap into being a wartime president; but if you apply to be Commander in Chief, it's certainly got to be in your wheelhouse. But, I'm not really here to expound on the job performance of the Bush administration. Historians will continue to sort out the efficacy of those eight years. Mine is an observation of what felt were prevalent feelings of our nation and how those feelings may have brought us to now.

We all want for our leadership to represent our feelings and us. But, all I had to do was observe President Bush meeting with various countries Heads' of State, and I wanted to apologize. I didn't want to apologize for America but I did want to say, "Hey! He ain't us!" My Mother used to say the craziest thing when I would look up at her during reprimands. She'd say, "Don't you look at me with that tone of voice!" Watching President Bush, I often wanted to say, "Don't you look at that Chancellor, Prime Minister, King, reporter, Congress or anyone else with that tone of voice!" Anyway, I digress.

So, we elected our "Hope for Change". We all hoped for it. In fact, many who wouldn't have swayed left did so in hope. Now, after three years, we generally feel the same but for differing reasons...we desperately hope for CHANGE! But, with this presidential election cycle, a majority wants a change in the executive office.

I've written about our nation growing up. I've briefly referred to how I grew up. I've mentioned my Mother. Now, my thoughts go to my Father. He's not the most dynamic of guys. In fact, I remember wishing (at times) he were as cool as other Fathers I knew. But, my Father has always been a man of principle and quiet courage. He is a learned man, has a doctorate in fact, but you'd never know it. His humility has hurt and helped him. The quiet, yet spot-on wisdom he offered his children filtered gradually into the community. He had a political career; served as our small towns’ Mayor and was President of our states’ League of Cities and Towns. His Father, my Grandfather, also just a principled and humble man, rose up from being a small dairy farmer from Swedish immigrants to serve under the Secretary of Agriculture in the Eisenhower administration. Both examples in my life are men of honor and integrity and not self-ambition. They both were truly called to serve despite their lack of political dynamics or charisma. Highly respected while seeking none. I honor and respect my Father, his Father, respectable Fathers everywhere and our Founding Fathers. When I think of Father, I picture the adult in the room; the voice of reason.

ALL great men that I have ever been inspired to follow or emulate have felt like the adult in a room of children. When I say children it's a metaphor to me for those driven by egos, agendas and self-interests to varying degrees. My father, Grandfather and others I'm thinking of thought NOT of themselves but of others always and in all ways.

This brings me to my point. In my opinion, Mitt Romney continues to be the "adult in the room". Is he perfect? No, but I don't see anyone else more adult. In fact, I believe that because of his knowledge and credentials, he is repeatedly held to a higher standard than others. It's almost as if on some subconscious level people scrutinize Romney as if to say, "But look...he's Mitt Romney, he's supposed to know that, be that, represent that, stand for that, not fall for that, never do that and always say and do things...well, like Mitt Romney should!" I feel that the curse of rising to be the most adult in the room is that you are forever expected to be the most adult.

Double standards always apply. Why? Perhaps double standards exist because there are so few adults in our world. So few in the press are adult. So few in the media are adult. So few pundits are adult. Human nature is to criticize when we can’t relate to another rather than try to grow an understanding of another. And, it seems that despite Romney’s strengths, he always faces relate-ability with his potential constituents.

Let’s talk about what are considered as Romney’s weaknesses. Without a full-scale debate on ideological differences you may have with him, ask yourself how many of Romney’s “perceived weaknesses” are just that. Whether you agree with him or not, just consider how many times you have heard: “Romney is perceived as unapproachable…” “Romney is perceived as disingenuous…” “Romney is perceived as being this or that…” Romney is dogged with perceptions being reality to the observer.

I will grant you, Romney is not the most comfortable in all situations and at all times. In 2008, I believe he may have been naïve to what the rigors and nuances of a presidential campaign are relevant to RELATING. Few can relate with Mitt Romney.

Being the most adult is not enough. Romney has tried to retool his approach to be more everyman and approachable. How has it worked? The double-edged sword slices hard. If he stays on point for more than one stump speech he’s robotic. If he tries to personalize or regionalize his message, he’s pandering. If he slightly revises his approach, he’s flip-flopping. And, the list goes on and it is part of the whole political game. Is Romney singled out? Of course he is; but I’d like to believe that, for the most part, it is unintentional. It is that unfortunate aspect of human nature that feels uncomfortable when an adult is in the room observing our childlike antics.

Is it hard to relate to Mitt Romney? Of course it is…he’s Mitt Romney for hell’s sake!