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Early Florida vote could doom Newt Gingrich by... 60,000? 40,000? More? Less?

Whether it’s 5, 7, 11 or 14 percentage points, all the major polls agree: Newt Gingrich should lose Election Day in Florida.

But Florida doesn’t have just one Election Day. It has a month’s worth of them because voters can cast absentee ballots by mail or go to special early-voting precincts for a 10-day stretch that ended Saturday.

At least 632,000 Republicans have already cast ballots.

So Gingrich could be losing by as many as 60,000 votes before the polls even open Tuesday, according to an analysis of early-voter surveys and the averages of all the major statewide polls applied to the pool of already cast ballots.

“I think Gingrich could be losing more to Mitt Romney — like 75,000ish,” said Randy Nielsen, a top Florida political consultant for the Republican Party of Florida who’s not affiliated with any presidential candidate.

“This election isn’t going to be pretty for Newt Gingrich,” Nielsen said. “He didn’t have a program to get early and absentee votes, and Gingrich is losing to Mitt Romney in every region except for North Florida. But he’s not winning there enough to make up the difference.”

The actual number of early ballots won by the candidates won't become known until after Election Day.

And Gingrich could be doing much better if his campaign somehow managed to get voters to flock to early-voting precincts and cast absentee ballots in numbers that well exceed the average estimates of nearly 30 scientific surveys that have a 4 percent error margin. Factor that in, and Gingrich could trail Romney by about 42,000 votes.

When absentee-ballot voting began at the beginning of the year, only Romney aggressively courted early voters. For more than a month, his campaign has called and mailed voters and reached them on Spanish- and English-language television and radio.

Gingrich was late in contacting voters, advertising in Florida and campaigning here, relative to Romney.

Still, the advertising has been so heavy on Miami’s Spanish-language airwaves that a WQBA-AM (1140) host apologized to readers that some shows had been cut short to accommodate all the political spots. Up to 2 million Republicans could vote in this election.

Full story here

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packeryman

For those who have not voted yet, Romney is the only candidate who can carry most of the Independents(needed for a GOP win)and have a possible chance of beating Obama. America will never elect a ego driven corrupt Washington Insider that left the House with 84 ethic violations and a $300,000 fine. Newt made millions peddling influence out of his K Street office. Those who were in the House with him says he's too full of himself, too unstable to ever hold the reigns of power. Lets get this guy off the campaign trail, so voters will start backing Romney instead of having Newt continue to run negative adds against the nominee to be.

Mariapar

http://tinyurl.com/7pd4t8m

The republican nomination is being bought !! MORMON BISHOP Romney will lose to Obama. FOR SURE !
Research before you vote. It is a reasonable request !
Rev. O’Neal Dozier, the conservative black pastor of Pompano Beach’s Worldwide Christian Center said:
“Blacks are not going to vote for anyone of the Mormon faith,” Dozier said. “The book of Mormon says the Negro skin is cursed.”...

djluk

I wish you would do some research, Mariapar, before posting such offensive and demonstrably false attacks. This is an insult to the many good people of all ethnic backgrounds who are members of the LDS Church in Florida and around the world. Africa is one of the places that the LDS Church is growing most rapidly. There is nothing at all in the Book of Mormon that says that the "Negro skin" is cursed. The setting for the Book of Mormon is in the pre-Columbian Americas -- it does not deal with people from Africa at all.

javier

is time to send Gingrich,obama and all corrut to the moon

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