« Group urges Miami Beach commissioner running to replace Richard Steinberg to resign early | Main | "Jewbags" flap exposes rift in Barack Obama-Debbie Wasserman Schultz World »

RPOF: Santorum-McCalister aide holds "delusional fantasy" about Republican rules

Here's the memo released by Rick Santorum's delegate director John Yob (who also happens to be a senior strategist on the Mike McCalister U.S. Senate campaign in Florida):

To:                          Mike Biundo
From:                    John Yob
Date:                     April 5, 2012
Re:                         Delegate Math
 
 
The Media’s Delegate Math is Wrong
 
There are a couple of fundamental flaws with the delegate counts that the media keeps that reveals that this race is much closer than they report:
 
1)      Florida, Arizona, and quite possibly Puerto Rico will be proportional rather than Winner Take All.  They broke RNC rules by going winner take all before the window and therefore RNC Members and/or the convention will enforce the rules and make the delegations proportional.  This will reduce Romney’s delegate total substantially and increase the other three candidates’ respective delegate totals.
 
2)      National Convention Delegates are elected at County, District, and State conventions rather than by the initial beauty contests in many states.  For example, in Washington State Romney was allocated 25 delegates, Paul 8 delegates, Santorum 7 delegates, and Gingrich 0 delegates.  The Santorum and Paul campaigns are working together in Washington State and the result will be more delegates for Santorum and Paul and a dramatic decrease in delegates for Romney.  Santorum will also over perform in most other states that use this process and Romney will underperform.
 
3)      Unbound delegates – The media continues to put unbound delegates in their counts in the territories and other states.  These folks can change their mind, or have yet to make up their mind, and should not be counted as if they are bound.
 
The REAL Count
Our current internal count that takes into account ongoing county, district, and state conventions is as follows:
 
Romney – 571
Santorum – 342
Newt – 158
Paul - 91
 
Texas is Going Winner Take All
The state of Texas is in the process of announcing that they are going to go Winner Take All rather than proportional.  This will have a dramatic impact on the delegate projections, tighten the race after Santorum wins Texas, and significantly hinder Romney’s capacity to ever get 1144 delegates because he will not get his proportion of the state.  Simply put, this is a Game Changer.  The race is almost even if you account for a Rick Santorum win in Texas under a Winner Take All system, and there is a clear Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich.
 
The Calendar Moves to May
The month of April was always going to be difficult but the calendar gets much more friendly for Rick Santorum in May.  North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas might lead to Santorum winning roughly 7 out of 8 states in May, and heading into the June 5th primaries with a freight train of momentum.
 
Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich
The campaign continues to reach out to Newt Gingrich’s team to work together on County, State, and District conventions to prevent Romney from achieving 1144 and to elect a Conservative Majority of delegates.
 
Conclusion
This race is much closer than the media and Establishment Republicans would like to report and there and events such as Texas are dramatically changing the future landscape in a manner that is positive to Rick Santorum and negative for Mitt Romney.
 
The other campaigns are beginning to work together more closely to prevent Romney from reaching 1144 and it is starting to pay dividends.
 

The month of April was always going to be a difficult month for Rick Santorum but it will still be close enough so that when he wins the conservative states in the month of May the race will be approximately even going into the Republican National Convention.

Florida GOP spokesman Brian Hughes said it's "preposterous" to think Florida will change from a winner-take-all state "simply so rick santorum can find some justification for his losing campaign."

He called the theory a "delusional fantasy" and said it amounted to a campaign trying to impose its will on a state party that had already worked through and resolved the issue. "Just as there's a possibility that pigs will fly, there is some possibilitythat months from now there could be some sort of mechanizm to change it. But the reality is we were, are, and will be a winner take all state."

Posted by Adam C. Smith

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

whasup

Well, the state Republican party has tried to impose its chosen candidates on Republican voters for years now.

The party stooges better wake up and smell the coffee that's still brewing out there in Republican voter land.

It was not that many moon ago that the Republican party establishment was trying to quash Rick Scott and force Bill McCollum on us.

They lost and we, the people, won!

An attitude adjustment in the party hierarchy and their aparatchiks is still needed.

Seneht Somef

Florida moved it's primary forward - and the penalty for doing that was a loss of delegates. The State Party knew these were the rules when they broke them. Look's like Santorum is right and Florida is delusional - to me.

Anti-Tallahassee

The Florida Republican establishment does not believe it is subject to rules or laws. Those silly things only apply to you common folk.

craigdattons

hi there we buiild the whole thing contact above
c d

craigdattons

hi there all of them are different pm me
craig

Tamara

Lenny Curry is LYING, and so is Reince Preibus ! This letter is very clear:

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2012/02/01/republican-national-committee-memo-on-florida-delegates/

Florida, according to these rules is NOT winner take all. Delusional is trying to lie your way out of supporting a certin nominee, and even stop the primary!

PEOPLE are not happy about this and it will crash on Lenny Curry and Reince Preibus's head.

Wanting to win so badly that you will LIE is exactly what Obama did .. we're not going that route and these two BOYS do not seem to get that message!

Rafa

Blogger, The media has painted Santorum as a cvnoersative radical - your exactl right on that point. They also painted Sarah Palin, John McCain, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and especially Michelle Bachman as radicals as well. Do you not think they will do the same to Mitt Romney? They want him as the candidate as they know folks like me will never vote for him. They leave him alone for now, but wait till he gets the nomination and watch what happens. The largest smear campaign to grace the pages of all the liberal rags will take place. So why is Romney the man when he will fare exactly like the others that have been smeared? He has no magic pill to protect against the impending smear.I believe America will be over as we know it. It's coming in about a year. A lame duck Obama will kick into high gear the things he has wrought these past 3 years. You will have no guns, liberty, or choice. If people can't see that, then perhaps they deserve what's next.

Facu

Let's get this straight (again). Romney lost to McCain who lost to Hussein Obama and we are going to nainmote Romney to take on Hussein Obama? Huh? What stupidity in the Republitard Party! If this is all they can muster, we're done! A Yankee far left radical who mandated health care and gun control expects to gain conservative support to run againt someone who gave us mandated health care and wants to take our guns away. Karl Rove and the other establishment RINOs were so afraid of the Tea Party which is why I can't understand why it went away. One other thing. This fine conservative site should be rife with pissed off conservatives. Not seeing that. Why?

The comments to this entry are closed.